Covid models AFU

[smackaholic]

These last few days we are seeing that the predictions that scared the entire economy to a halt were ridiculously overestimated.

200K a few days ago is now 60K. My guess is it will go a good bit below even that.

Some are saying that is because we are just so fukking awesome at social isolation.

The problem with that is that social isolation was part of the model and the differences between areas do not seem to correlate to the degree os social isolation in these areas.

A good example is Florida. They were late to the SI party and just a few days ago, all the pundits were saying DeSantis is a tool and FL is fixing to get butt-fukked in the mouf.

Trouble is, they haven't. And given all the travel to FL from around the world and their geriatric population, FL should be having its shit pushed in bad.

NY was ahead of everyone with SI and they got slammed.

Yeah, they are tightly packed and there are lotsa Chinks there, but the same could be said about large parts of Cali and they haven't been hit nearly as bad.

This thing just doesn't seem to want to play along with the modelers.

Why?

How was it that NY has been absolutely hammered despite SI early and other places didn't?

A possible reason I guess is that the only other place with lots of Chinks has nice weather. If LA and SF had a winter, would they have been crushed? is this what is saving FL?

My tin hat wearing side wonders if it was a purposeful operation by the Chi-Coms to send thousands of young, healthy but positive Covid spreaders to the NY area to sneeze on everyone.

They wouldn't be able to send enough people over here to infect the entire country, but it would be easy to send a few thousand to NY where they could infect the entire city.

And they know that if NY has a health crisis....the country has one.