Weis Overrated at This Point

[See You Next Wednesday]

Compare these two ND seasons:

2002 (10-3)
PURDUE WON 24-17
MICHIGAN WON 25-23
at Michigan State WON 21-17
STANFORD WON 31-7
PITTSBURGH WON 14-6
at Air Force WON 21-14
at Florida State WON 34-24
BOSTON COLLEGE LOST 7-14
at Navy @Baltimore, MD WON 30-23
RUTGERS WON 42-0
at Southern Cal LOST 13-44
GATOR BOWL @Jacksonville, FL
North Carolina State LOST 6-28

2005 (9-3)
at Pittsburgh WON 42-21
at Michigan WON 17-10
MICHIGAN STATE LOST 41-44 (OT)
at Washington WON 36-17
at Purdue WON 49-28
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOST 31-34
BRIGHAM YOUNG WON 49-23
TENNESSEE WON 41-21
NAVY WON 42-21
SYRACUSE WON 34-10
at Stanford WON 38-31
FIESTA BOWL @ Tempe, AZ
Ohio State LOST 34-20

So please tell me what makes Weis so great after only one year?

[King Crimson]

just to generate discussion: ND won 6 games in 2002 by a TD or less.

also, the scoring average per game in 2005 is at least 10-14 points higher just eyeballing it. and ND won a lot of those games convincingly. Tennessee and (arguably) UM were a little disappointing eventually....but still.

i'm not a big ND fan, per se--though one of my best buddies from college is...and so i try and keep up. i think that as far as on-field play this years Irish were well-coached and light years better than Ty's clubs.

Does Weis get blown by the national media, yes. but so did Ty in 2002--that's just a function of media today and Notre Dame being Notre Dame. no doubt, that they were outmatched as far as talent and speed teamwise by Ohio State in this year's bowl game.....but they hung around. they didn't roll over like the 6-28 game with NCState or Bob Davie's BCS team that got waxed by Oregon State.....against a much better, higher ranked opponent.

[M2]

Compare these two ND seasons:

2002 (10-3)
PURDUE WON 24-17
MICHIGAN WON 25-23
at Michigan State WON 21-17
STANFORD WON 31-7
PITTSBURGH WON 14-6
at Air Force WON 21-14
at Florida State WON 34-24
BOSTON COLLEGE LOST 7-14
at Navy @Baltimore, MD WON 30-23
RUTGERS WON 42-0
at Southern Cal LOST 13-44
GATOR BOWL @Jacksonville, FL
North Carolina State LOST 6-28

2005 (9-3)
at Pittsburgh WON 42-21
at Michigan WON 17-10
MICHIGAN STATE LOST 41-44 (OT)
at Washington WON 36-17
at Purdue WON 49-28
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOST 31-34
BRIGHAM YOUNG WON 49-23
TENNESSEE WON 41-21
NAVY WON 42-21
SYRACUSE WON 34-10
at Stanford WON 38-31
FIESTA BOWL @ Tempe, AZ
Ohio State LOST 34-20

So please tell me what makes Weis so great after only one year?

Because he had Ty's complete 4 year class of recruits...

Case Closed



m2

[Terry in Crapchester]

A few minor points re: 2002:

1. You forgot the Kickoff Classic game vs. Maryland -- ND WON 22-0.

2. Believe the score of the Gator Bowl was 30-6.

That aside, scores alone tell you what the difference was between the two seasons. In 2002, we won 6 of 10 games by a touchdown or less (I'm including here the 8-point win over Pitt), lost only one of 3 by a touchdown or less. We lost the final two games by a combined score of 74-19, and that turned out to be a harbinger of things to come.

This year, we won only two of 9 games by a touchdown or less and lost 2 of 3 by a touchdown or less. In both of those two games, we were literally one play away from winning the game.

Not to mention that the defense carried our '02 team. The offense was pathetic that year. The offense is now in place. We still have to get better defensively if we expect to get to where we want to be. At this point, I have confidence that this staff can do that, although I suppose I could ultimately be proven wrong on that point.

[Killian]

Point differentials. Willingham took over a team that was -1 the year before, and was +73 the next, for a +74 turn around. Weis took over a team that was even on points and was +146, for a +146 turnaround.

Achieving consistently strong point differentials is the only way that a team can be consistently successful. You can have "smoke and mirrors" years with a decent record like Davie did in 1998 (+80) and 2000 (+86) or Willingham did in 2002 (+73). But to have a team that's really major bowl worthy (playing a schedule like ND does) you need to be in the range of + 150 and to have any shot at an NC you need to be around +200.

Holtz took over a team that was - 4 and went + 80, + 121 and then + 237 (NC). Ara took over a team that was - 51 and went + 210.

Weis took over a team that was even on points the year before and went + 146. In terms of first-year improvement, that means that in the history of ND coaches (excluding a few who coached only 1 year early in the program's history), Weis had the most impressive performance in ND's history other than Ara's.

Weis's first year performance also eclipses Carroll's (-28 to + 91, an improvement of 119), Tressel's (+101 to +68, a loss of 33), Richt (+119 to + 103, a loss of + 16) or Meyer's at Utah (+23 to + 115, an improvement of 8 . The only coach of recent years that had a more impressive performance on points was Stoops who took OU from -45 to +201 his first year, though he managed only to nudge the record from 5-6 to 7-5.

Even though I think it is completely wrong, I would entertain an argument that Weis was even with Willingham in terms of first year production. Considering the fact that Willingham left him with zero depth at offensive line and defensive line, I think this season was a helluva lot better than Willingham. Also, Weis's total point differential in his losses was -20. For Willingham in his first year, it was -60.

[See You Next Wednesday]

Excellent points by Killian, TinC, and King Crimson. I sitll think he gets too much love and a 10 year contract extension off of one year, but I can see how this year eclipsed Willingham's first by a good margin.