Let's see your 1st round upsets

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Mon Mar 13, 2006 10:29 pm

Discounting the 8/9 games...

I like the following:

NC St over CAL
UW-Milwaukee over OU
SDSU over Indiana
Alabama over Marquette
and Kent St over Pitt (I don't feel as confident with this one, but the MAC is usually good for a first round upset every other year, at least.

SunCoastSooner · Post by **SunCoastSooner** » Mon Mar 13, 2006 10:48 pm

Texass A&M over Syracuse
NC State over GW
Xavier over Zaga
Bama over Marquette
UAB over UK
Seton Hall over WSU
Montana over Nevada

Mook · Post by **Mook** » Mon Mar 13, 2006 11:13 pm

SunCoastSooner wrote:Montana over Nevada

I couldn't agree more on this one. Nice one.

L45B · Post by **L45B** » Mon Mar 13, 2006 11:51 pm

No way Syracuse bows out in the first round two years in a row.

I like George Mason over Michigan State...

King Crimson · Post by **King Crimson** » Mon Mar 13, 2006 11:53 pm

i hate Oklahoma's draw. a team that picks you up full court and then (assuming a W) Florida in Florida.

the_ouskull · Post by **the_ouskull** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 12:39 am

Believe the Heupel wrote:ORU over Memphis.

The ORU over Memphis, I actually considered picking for real. I may still change it. I've never had to even consider a 1/16 game before, but I feel like Memphis is a year away, and ORU is a decent squad that's really well-coached. Where is that game being played again? I'm being lazy.

the_ouskull

Arch Angel · Post by **Arch Angel** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 12:54 am

Winthrop over Tennessee

How they got a #2 seed boggles everyone mind.

Adelpiero · Post by **Adelpiero** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 1:03 am

Bucknell
Bradley
UAB
Northern Iowa
UTAH ST
SIU

iactually have a couple more, but crap is already packed away!

Diogenes · Post by **Diogenes** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 2:56 am

NC State over Pac10 scrub.
ORU over Memphis.
Utah State over PAC10 scrub
Air Force over Illinois.
Bradley over Kansas (Kansas+March=do the math yourself)

Texas A&M over Syracuse looks good too.

Terry in Crapchester · Tue Mar 14, 2006 4:56 am

NC State over Cal (7-10 matchup)
Wisconsin-Milwaukee over Oklahoma
Seton Hall over Wichita State (7-10 matchup)
UAB over Kentucky (8-9 matchup; note that UAB knocked out Kentucky, then a #1 seed, in the second round 2 years ago)
Bucknell over Arkansas (8-9 matchup)

I don't know what you folks are drinking, but I wouldn't touch ORU against Memphis with a 10-foot pole, at least not without some serious points being spotted my way. Just on history alone -- no 16 seed has ever knocked off a 1 seed. Ever. I don't see why people might think this year will be different.

Btw, skull, the game's in Dallas.

Diogenes · Post by **Diogenes** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 5:17 am

Terry in Crapchester wrote: UAB over Kentucky (8-9 matchup; note that UAB knocked out Kentucky, then a #1 seed, in the second round 2 years ago)
Bucknell over Arkansas (8-9 matchup)

MgoBlue-LightSpecial wrote:Discounting the 8/9 games...

the_ouskull · Post by **the_ouskull** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 5:34 am

Terry in Crapchester wrote:No 16 seed has ever knocked off a 1 seed. Ever. I don't see why people might think this year will be different.

Because it's got to happen sometime. It's already happened in the Women's Tournament. Why not now? Why not Memphis? ORU is a good squad...

Btw, skull, the game's in Dallas.

Thx. I just picked it on my ESPN.com bracket.

the_ouskull

Qbert · Post by **Qbert** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 5:46 am

Xavier
Wisc-Mil making it a Looooong way
Tex aTm
SDSU
No. Iowa

not a year for the MAC winning the 12 v. 5 seed though.

Terry in Crapchester · Tue Mar 14, 2006 12:52 pm

Believe the Heupel wrote:A 15 had never beaten a two-until one did it.

True, but the difference is that a 15 knocked off a 2 relatively early in the history of the format. IIRC, the first team to do it was Richmond over Syracuse in either the late 80's or early 90's.

And even so, it's relatively rare. My general rule of thumb is to advance every 1 and 2 seed at least one round into the tournament. True, there might be an upset in one of the 2-15 matchups, but the likelihood of picking that upset correctly is relatively slim.

As for Memphis-ORU, Memphis may be the most vulnerable #1 seed for a first-round upset in awhile, but that doesn't make it likely to happen. I'll take a sig bet on Memphis in the first round, even up, against anyone who wants it.

Degenerate · Post by **Degenerate** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 3:37 pm

Winthrop is a dangerous matchup for a Tennessee team without any NCAA tourney experience.

S. Alabama over Florida
SDSU over Indiana

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Tue Mar 14, 2006 4:22 pm

Terry in Crapchester wrote:And even so, it's relatively rare. My general rule of thumb is to advance every 1 and 2 seed at least one round into the tournament. True, there might be an upset in one of the 2-15 matchups, but the likelihood of picking that upset correctly is relatively slim.

I tend to include all 3 seeds, as well. Yeah, 14s beat 3s occasionally, but it's just smarter to play the percentages, because even if you do guess a 14 correctly, chances are you don't have that 14 advancing into the next round. So you're risking a lot to gain one point. Unless you're in one of those tourneys that awards more points for picking lower seeds...then I guess there's more of a benefit to go out on a limb.

GrizBearStare · Post by **GrizBearStare** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 7:38 pm

Mook wrote:
SunCoastSooner wrote:Montana over Nevada
I couldn't agree more on this one. Nice one.

You guys f'in rock

:twisted:

SunCoastSooner · Post by **SunCoastSooner** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 8:03 pm

King Crimson wrote:i hate Oklahoma's draw. a team that picks you up full court and then (assuming a W) Florida in Florida.

I think Florida is a paper tiger. I am more scared of game 1 than playing Florida.

Diogenes · Post by **Diogenes** » Wed Mar 15, 2006 12:56 am

As for Memphis-ORU, Memphis may be the most vulnerable #1 seed for a first-round upset in awhile, but that doesn't make it likely to happen. I'll take a sig bet on Memphis in the first round, even up, against anyone who wants it.

No thanks.

But if any of you picking SDSU to win a game feel like betting, I'm game.

Diogenes · Post by **Diogenes** » Sat Mar 18, 2006 5:01 am

Diogenes wrote:Bradley over Kansas (Kansas+March=do the math yourself)

Is it too early to predict that the Jaychokes get schooled by a #14/15 team next year?