Interesting Trends & Predictions in the Cal/Tenn matchup

[M2]

I’ve been checking my computer data base, getting ready for the upcoming season and found some trends that caught my attention: Tennessee is 57-3 against conference opponents in November, evidence that Tennessee’s best performances come later (as opposed to earlier) in the season. Although Coach Fulmer has brought back OC David Cutliffe to run the offense, it will take some time for the O to jell (as opposed to Jell-O; i.e. Cutliffe’s complaining about his fat O-linemen), so odds are that the Vols first game of the season will not be their best effort. Also, it does not help that the Vols are 2-45-1 ATS (Against the Spread) when they lose SU (Straight Up), which means that statistically close games turn out NOT to be so close after all, a definite drag on team morale when gaps between SU and ATS are consistently not closed.

And another odd trend popped up: Tennessee is 0-3 ATS as a Home Dog (underdog) in the last seven years; losing to Georgia 14-41 in 2003 (+2), losing to Miami Florida 3-26 in 2002 (+8 ½) and losing to Florida 23-27 in 2000 (+3 ½). In all of these Home Dog games Tennessee also lost ATS, consistent with the 2-45-1 ATS stat mentioned above. Presuming that Tennessee will be listed as a Home Dog team (especially if the line is single-digit), the odds are that if they lose the game they will also lose ATS, consistent with the trend mentioned above and particularly in close games. Again, this points to Tennessee’s history of NOT CLOSING THE SPREADS, a distinct demoralizing factor for any team.

PROJECTED SCORE & OPENING LINE: I’ve been predicting this line since February. It could change during fall practice; we’ll see what develops. Until then, here it is for the record. Unfiltered score: Cal wins 28-21; filtered score Cal wins 32-24. Opening line = CAL-4 ½, improving to -7 by game-time.

[indyfrisco]

Who the fuck gave Shaz the password for m2?