ND at the halfway point

Killian · Post by **Killian** » Mon Oct 09, 2006 8:32 pm

ND has reached their bye week at 5-1. They are through the most difficult part of their schedule and their lone blemish was a turnover aided asskicking at the hands of the #4 team in the country.

The good:

-After some early season struggles, Brady Quinn has seemed to regain his 2005 form that led everyone in the country to crown him king of the universe.

-Remembering that he was an All American receiver, Jeff Samardzija has stopped playing the position like a pitcher and is starting to make plays again.

-Rhema McKnight is realizing his vast potential, even after major knee surgery.

-John Carlson is playing like the top receiving tight end in the country. His blocking is coming around and if he stays for his fifth year, he could play himself into the first round.

-Nickle Back play. While Lambert appeared to be abused in the Michigan game, those were two great throws by Henne. Lambert has stepped up and played very well and freshman Darrin Walls has played well when given the opportunity.

-Punting. This was one of my biggest question marks coming into the season. Price is having an All American year and will be an NFL punter after next season.

The Bad/Ugly:

-This team has no depth. Darius Walker is playing very, very well (200+ all purpose yards the last two games) after a slow start, but there is no one behind him to give him a meaningful rest. James Aldridge could be that player, but he had his first carries of the season on Saturday.

-Offensive Line play. While there have been some standouts (Ryan Harris and freshman Sam Young), the interior of the line has been a major dissapointment. The next few games will be key to developing depth for the remainder of the year and starters for next season.

-Wide Reciever play. The top two are very solid, but have been inconsistant. The fact that no one has stepped up and seized the number 3 spot is concerning. There will be plenty of time available for players such as Kamara, Benn and Little next year.

-Linebackers. Travis Thomas has played well considering he was a running back until fall practice. Maurice Crum is solid but out of place in the middle. Mitchell Thomas/Anthony Vernaglia have been a huge disapointment.

-Safety play. Zbikowski and Ndukwe are great in run support, but Ndukwe still gets caught out of position way, way too much. He was responsible for safety help on Manningham's long touchdown and he bit hard on the trick play against Stanford. Zbikowski has to stop going for the Robert Bell hit and wrap up. Honestly, ND isn't going to miss Zibby that much next season (assuming he goes pro). While I love his intensity, there are better safeties on the roster that play the ball.

-Kicking game. Outside of Price, this area has been a complete and utter disapointment. Ryan Burkhart couldn't win the job from walk-on Carl Goia and only got to kick off after another walk-on, Bobby Renkes, was out with an injury.

If ND can stay healthy, they can run the table on the rest of their schedule and let the BCS chaos ensue.

Van · Post by **Van** » Mon Oct 09, 2006 8:43 pm

All ND needs is the SEC winner to have a loss and ND would then control their own destiny.

They'd also greatly benefit from USC staying undefeated heading into the ND game.

That's it. If USC is undefeated and Florida finds a loss somewhere ND will play the Big 10 winner in the title game if ND can just run the table and top it off by going into the Coliseum to beat the Trojans.

Same holds true for USC. ND needs to lose no more games and then all USC has to do is run the table and beat ND and they're in...

Weird deal, too, since neither team is really very good. ND won't run the table, of that I'm nearly certain. USC will, provided they first make it through Oregon and Cal. No guarantees there. If they manage those two wins they'll go ahead and beat ND and UCLA and roll on into the title game...where they'll either lose to OSU or beat Michigan.

Killian · Post by **Killian** » Mon Oct 09, 2006 8:46 pm

Not really, at least in my opinion.

If ND were to win out, it would require the SEC team to have a loss and Michigan would have to be the undfeated team. If OSU beats UofM, there is no way in hell ND will end up ranked ahead of UofM.

Add to all of this the fact that Texas will likely only have one loss as well. I'm not counting West Virginia because frankly, they don't count. They will get jumped by a one loss team if they are undfeated.

Van · Post by **Van** » Mon Oct 09, 2006 9:34 pm

By season's end the ND loss to Michigan will have been so long ago that a really bad Michigan loss to OSU combined with a really good win by ND at USC will be enough. Those games will still be fresh in the minds of people and let's face it, CF desperately wants ND to "be back!!"

ND will always get the nod if it's a borderline call.

What they won't be able to overcome would be an undefeated SEC winner.

Agreed, where W. Virginia or Louisville are concerned. No way they'll have the chance to earn the bid, not when their only possible "marquee" win all season would be a win against the other team.

The Seer · Post by **The Seer** » Mon Oct 09, 2006 10:21 pm

ND with a bye, UCLA only has to travel to Oregon this week to face a pissed off, just got hammered by Kal squad...

ND should be favored by 50 when we get there.

Me? I'll be on a cruise to Southern Mexico for 7 days...doubt they will have the game on board....

Vito Corleone · Post by **Vito Corleone** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:15 am

It would be kinda funny to see ND and tOSU for the MNC and then Texas USC again in the Rosebowl.

Just saying

My guess is all the SEC teams knock each other off, ND loses to a one loss USC team. Texas wins out and WV wins out.

BCS takes WV and tOSU

Rose takes USC and Michigan
Fiesta takes Texas and ND
Sugar takes Florida and ???
Orange takes ACC champ and Auburn

I have no idea who is coming out of the ACC, I could easily see the Fiesta taking Texas and a PAC 10 team. It won't happen but the SEC deserves 3 teams to get in.

If Missouri finishes with one loss I think they deserve an invite. Right now I think they are way underrated in the polls.

Adelpiero · Post by **Adelpiero** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:30 am

Vito Corleone wrote:
If Missouri finishes with one loss I think they deserve an invite. Right now I think they are way underrated in the polls.

way too early for MU(bcs) talk.

havent beat KU in 4 years
Havent beat KST in 14 years
havent won in lincoln in 30+years

and still play OU.

way too early for the sparklers and glow sticks.

Van · Post by **Van** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 1:23 am

Vito, in your scenario you have a one loss USC team beating ND and then going on to play Michigan in the Rose Bowl.

Who do you have beating USC then? If it's not ND then who? If it's Cal then USC probably won't go to the Rose Bowl. If it's Oregon or UCLA, same deal.

Cal is in the Rose Bowl driver's seat if USC loses a game to anybody but ND. 'Bout the only way USC goes to the Rose Bowl with one loss is if that one loss comes against ND. If they lose in the Pac 10 then Cal is almost certainly headed to Pasadena...

ND is going to the title game if:

-They run the table and look impressive against UCLA and especially an undefeated USC

-The SEC winner has one loss

I still think ND would get the nod over a one loss Michigan, for two simple reasons:

-What, are we going to have the title game be a direct repeat of the Michigan-OSU season finale?? Who wants to see the same two teams play two games in a row?? Certainly not the networks in general, and certainly not the networks when there's ND Nation just sitting there waiting to make their ratings day.

-ND simply has too much cache. If they end the season 11-1 and on a serious roll, including an impressive road win over an undefeated USC team (snapping their own long losing streak against USC in the process, along with the nation's longest regular season and home field winning streaks), ND is going to be THE hot media darling team. Meanwhile, Michigan...won't be. They'll have just suffered a loss in their most recent game. No way the PTB fuck it up again like they did with OU in '03 by giving a title game invitation to a team who didn't even win their conference and who got rolled in their most recent game.

Not gonna happen. ND will get the nod there, 100 times out of 100.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Tue Oct 10, 2006 1:28 am

Van wrote:-What, are we going to have the title game be a direct repeat of the Michigan-OSU season finale?? Who wants to see the same two teams play two games in a row?? Certainly not the networks in general, and certainly not the networks when there's ND Nation just sitting there waiting to make their ratings day.

It happened in 96 with FSU/UF.

Not saying it's likely, but "just sayin'," it has happened.

edit for technicality: UF did play Bama before this game in the SEC final

TheJON · Post by **TheJON** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 1:44 am

I would just like to take this opportunity to say that Notre Dame sucks!

Van · Post by **Van** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 1:45 am

Mgo, yep, and '03 and OU happened too, which is a a large part of the reason why neither thing will happen again.

People seem to be forgetting who we're talking about here. This is Notre Dame we're talking about here.

Notre Dame.

Does anybody here truly think a Charlie Weis/Brady Quinn led ND team will ever get the short end of the stick in any tough decision that has to be made by the CF PTB?

C'mon now. All ND will ever need is a plausible argument. An 11-1 hot as hell ND team would have it against a one loss/late season loss Michigan team. Just put yourself in the place of the BCS, the voters and especially the networks...

"Hmm, we could have Ohio State against...Michigan...again. Or, we could have Ohio State against a one loss/late season loss...Florida?? Lloyd Carr...Urban Meyer..."

"Hey, boss! We could also have Ohio State against...get this...Notre Dame!! Charlie Weis, instead of those stiffs Meyer and Carr. Brady Quinn, Heisman Wannabe, Irish QB, Joe Montana Incarnate, or...Chris fuggen Leak? Henne, from Michigan??

Notre Dame, boss...Notre Dame. They just took down USC on national tv. Everybody saw it. Ohio State vs Notre Dame, for all the marbles. All that tradition...all that hype...all those tv sets all over the nation...

Or, yeah, we could have Ohio St facing a one loss/late season loss Florida. Whatcha think?"

Is there any doubt how that one is gonna go?

TheJON · Post by **TheJON** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 1:51 am

Van,

Notre Dame deserves special treatment. They've earned it. Just ask Killian, he'll tell ya!

Van · Post by **Van** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 1:54 am

"Deserves" is neither here nor there. They're going to get it, regardless. All they have to do is uphold their end of the bargain and make sure they give TPTB even half an excuse...

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Tue Oct 10, 2006 2:00 am

Van wrote:Mgo, yep, and '03 and OU happened too, which is a a large part of the reason why neither thing will happen again.

Huh? I need some help deciphering what you're saying here. Are you saying OU did in '03 what FSU/UF did in '96?

OU played LSU in the BCS Title game for the '03 season. They didn't play LSU during the regular season prior to.

Ken · Post by **Ken** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 2:00 am

Say what you will, van, but the BCS formula will decide the two title game contenders. Do the voters have a certain amount of say? Of course, in their rankings, but that's only a part of the formula.

If the formula pits UofM vs. OSU, then it'll be UofM vs. OSU.

I must admit, I've only briefly scanned the thread seeing os how it's an ND one (surely I can glean SOMETHING worthwhile not ND related out of it, read: not matters ND). So, if you're talking 'bout selection for other BCS games not the title game, then yes, you're correct. No one would pass up a 1 loss ND team.

Van · Post by **Van** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 2:15 am

MgoBlue-LightSpecial wrote:
Van wrote:Mgo, yep, and '03 and OU happened too, which is a a large part of the reason why neither thing will happen again.
Huh? I need some help deciphering what you're saying here. Are you saying OU did in '03 what FSU/UF did in '96?

OU played LSU in the BCS Title game for the '03 season. They didn't play LSU during the regular season prior to.

You mentioned an example of two teams playing each other in their final regular season game (amended for your "technicality" edit) and then again in the title game. '03 and OU was an example of a team losing its conference and getting stomped in its final game, and then being rewarded anyway with a title game invitation.

The latter is the second example of the two scenarios I painted. Your FSU-Florida scenario was an example of the former.

Michigan-OSU in the title game would fit both scenarios. Not gonna happen, not again, especially not with ND sitting there as a plausible and much more attractive alternative.

Shawn Marion · Post by **Shawn Marion** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 2:18 am

Isn't Manningham out and Hart banged up?

Chad Henne is going to turn back into the average QB that he is.

Van · Post by **Van** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 2:20 am

Ken wrote:So, if you're talking 'bout selection for other BCS games not the title game, then yes, you're correct. No one would pass up a 1 loss ND team.

No, we're talking about the title game.

You're right anyway though. Amidst a sea of one loss teams, nope, ND would not get passed over in favor of anybody else.

Only way a one less ND doesn't get into the BCS title game this season would be if there were two major conference undefeateds out there, such as Ohio State or Michigan and either Florida or USC. An undefeated Big East winner will rightfully get passed over in favor of a one loss ND team...

Degenerate · Post by **Degenerate** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 2:57 am

Adelpiero wrote: way too early for MU(bcs) talk.

Havent beat KST in 14 years

Holy shit, I had no idea that streak was still active. That one is as good as gone this year, though.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Tue Oct 10, 2006 2:58 am

Van wrote:Amidst a sea of one loss teams, nope, ND would not get passed over in favor of anybody else.

But like Ken said, it'll ultimately be up to the formula to "decide." There's a ton of football left to be played which will dramatically affect, well, every minute little detail, most of which is/will be over our heads.

If it were entirely up to the human polls, then yeah, I'm right there with ya.

But remember, there are three components of the BCS, two of which consist of complex mathematical formulas, that will determine the #1 and #2. So this isn't just a matter of a "biased" human selection slotting ND in at #2 because they say so, and calling it good. Not quite that simple anymore.

The Harris Poll replaces the AP poll in the BCS formula, the Coaches sticks around, and the third component consists of what starts out as an average of six different computer polls. So yeah, basically, one of the key factors that decides the final computer formula will be from a bunch of...computers. Are you really going to tell me that you, Van, have a firm grasp on such elaborate mathematical scenarios (most of which haven't even been played out yet) that you can tell me, without a doubt, that ND would be there in the final over any other 1 loss team?

Based on this system?

Alrighty then, Doogie Vannar.

Van · Post by **Van** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 3:30 am

Would you bet against it?

With additional wins over USC and UCLA ND's computer based SOS will look damn good by season's end. They're going to win over the human polls.

Again, if it comes down to Ohio St or Michigan vs a bunch of one loss teams, one of which includes ND, would you bet against ND getting that slot?

I know I wouldn't.

Ken · Post by **Ken** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 3:54 am

Van, shut up.

Michigan-OSU in the title game would fit both scenarios. Not gonna happen, not again, especially not with ND sitting there as a plausible and much more attractive alternative.

^^^ Here ^^^, you implied that there are alternatives to the BCS formula in determining the title game contenders. Just shut up, please. Or get your story straight.

Van · Post by **Van** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 3:59 am

Ken, the human element still makes up a component of the BCS formula. Jesus, is this that difficult for your obstinate ass to comprehend??

Also, humans still program computers. On top of all that, I'd like to think you're not so naive as to think that CF and the networks don't have some bit of sway with the overall process, behind the scenes.

So, fuck off.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Tue Oct 10, 2006 4:03 am

Van wrote:Would you bet against it?

With additional wins over USC and UCLA ND's computer based SOS will look damn good by season's end. They're going to win over the human polls.

Again, if it comes down to Ohio St or Michigan vs a bunch of one loss teams, one of which includes ND, would you bet against ND getting that slot?

I know I wouldn't.

UCLA is actually going to have to beat somebody of note, or ND will be looking at one quality win from here on out: USC. And SC's been hobbling along quite a bit lately. If ND beats SC, they'll need SC to beat Cal and Oregon. And right now, with the way SC has been barely hanging on to win games, I'd venture to say that's asking a lot. A potentially one loss team like say, Tennessee, will likely play at least three more ranked teams in SEC play (and they're currently ahead of ND in the Harris Poll, one of the major components of the BCS. So is Texas by three spots).

But we haven't even covered a fraction of 1% of all that will go into the results between now and then. Every point either of us can bring up, you can counter that with a hundred other "potential" factors that could occur. Just way too many variables involved, more specifically, how the teams that the one loss teams beat will end up.

So to answer your question: No, I wouldn't bet against ND. I wouldn't bet for them either. Not this early. There's a TON more we need to see played out.

Van · Post by **Van** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 4:34 am

Mgo, I'm only asking you if you'd bet against it under the scenario I laid out:

-USC goes in undefeated against ND (which would mean they'd already beaten Oregon and Cal, with UCLA following the ND game to further enhance USC's SOS), and ND stomps 'em in the Coliseum.

-ND runs the table

-Florida loses somewhere

Sure, there's a thousand other possible scenarios out there and we'll have to sit back and see how it all unfolds.

That's not the question. The question concerns choosing between one loss teams and whether you'd bet against an ND team that stomped an undefeated USC team late in the season? Would that ND team in that scenario lose the title game slot to a one loss Florida, Tennessee or Texas team?

I'd say no way in hell where Florida is concerned, simply because their one loss occured late in the season. They're going to fall below ND if they lose from here on out.

Texas has no more truly significant (read: headlines grabbing) games left on their schedule. An ND team ending their season with a flourish and a late season Armageddon Bowl win over USC in the Coliseum will leapfrog a Texas team that's mostly sitting there on the sidelines, out of the media spotlight.

Tennessee would have to be the only one then with a chance to stay ahead of ND. In order though for Tennessee to win the SEC Florida will first have to lose twice since Florida holds the tiebreaker over Tennessee in the East.

So, the only way a one loss Tennessee wins the SEC is by seeing everyone else in the SEC fall flat on their faces. That's not going to give Tennessee the style points they'd need to hold off a hard charging ND...

Nope, any way you slice it I just don't see ND losing out in the One Loss Sweepstakes.

I also don't see much of any of this coming to fruition anyway though. USC will likely lose somewhere, at the rate they're going. ND likely won't run the table. Florida will likely lose somewhere.

I suspect that what we're going to get in the end here will be a monster clusterfuck. If Michigan holds up their end of the bargain then the winner of the Michigan-Ohio St game looks to be one of the title game participants. I just don't see Ohio St losing any other game besides the Michigan game.

At that point my guess is that we're going to have an undefeated Big East winner vying with one loss Texas, a one loss SEC winner (either Florida or Auburn) and...you know, that's about it!

I just don't see ND running the table and goddamit, I don't see USC running the table either. If USC loses once they're done. Like Florida, it's too late in the season. They'll fall too far.

God forbid, the only other one loss team I can see getting into this conversation is...gulp...

...m2's team. Can you imagine how ugly it'd get in here if Cal beat USC in the Coliseum, ran the table, won the Pac 10 and ended up getting the final title game slot??

That shit ain't out of the realm of possibility, not at all.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Tue Oct 10, 2006 4:56 am

Hey, if all those things take place precisely as you explained, then I suppose everything would line up well for ND.

But from this, more "general" statement you made earlier, I didn't assume all those particulars you just mentioned had to be in place:

Van wrote:Amidst a sea of one loss teams, nope, ND would not get passed over in favor of anybody else.

Just realize this: I too, could provide a careful, and calculated set of scenarios for a "sea of one loss teams" in which one or more would also appear to be in the driver's seat at season's end.

Van · Post by **Van** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 5:10 am

Go ahead then. Describe a slew of teams with one loss scenario whereby ND still isn't in the driver's seat, after having beaten an undefeated USC team in the Coliseum.

That scenario I described for you wasn't particularly careful or calculated. All it entailed was ND beating an undefeated USC team and the SEC winner ending up with a loss. Two simple things. One, actually, because the SEC winner would have to get a loss otherwise this is all moot anyway.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Tue Oct 10, 2006 5:37 am

Van wrote:Go ahead then. Describe a slew of teams with one loss scenario whereby ND still isn't in the driver's seat, after having beaten an undefeated USC team in the Coliseum.

I don't think my scenario would involve ND beating an undefeated SC team.

Again, I initially set out to argue against this:

Van wrote:Amidst a sea of one loss teams, nope, ND would not get passed over in favor of anybody else.

You made a general statement, without taking into account the countless, countless potential factors involved. That is what I was arguing against. Simply that "you can't know that yet." Simply that, "it's not quite that simple." Remember, your original argument was simply that a one loss ND team would beat out a field of other one loss teams. You didn't mention any of the particulars you later brought up.

Nope, It wasn't until later that you provided a pack of scenarios all heavily skewed in ND's favor. You made it so I basically couldn't disagree with you, given all the scenarios you had put into play.

And yeah, providing everything falls into place exactly how you described, I'd probably give the nod to ND. But that's how your argument later came to be, not how it had started out.

Van · Post by **Van** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 5:46 am

Again, where is this "pack of scenarios"??

All I described was the SEC winner getting a loss and ND having only one loss after providing USC with their lone loss.

Again, unless the SEC winner gets a loss this is all moot 'cause an undefeated SEC winner will of course trump a one loss ND team. At that point our debate parameters cannot exist. So, assuming the SEC winner is one of the one loss teams, which I've stated from the very beginning, go ahead. Go from there.

ND has only one loss. The SEC winner has a loss. Any other team you care to mention has one loss. Describe a scenario whereby ND doesn't get in.

I'm not necessarily thinking I already have you checkmated here but I think it's getting pretty close. About the only possibility I see would be if everybody remaining on ND's schedule (plus Michigan) simply goes into the shitter and loses like crazy from here until the end of the season. That's about it. That might ruin ND's 'puter rankings and voter perception to the point that they lose out. (To a much smaller degree that's exactly what happened to USC in '03, when some of their early season foes lost at the end of the season. Thing is, the BCS changed their format following that season. Using the current system USC would've gotten into the '03 title game.) Going through the realistic possibilities though I'm just not seeing any scenario whereby ND doesn't beat out all other one loss teams.

It's your move.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Tue Oct 10, 2006 6:37 am

So, assuming the SEC winner is one of the one loss teams, which I've stated from the very beginning, go ahead. Go from there.

ND has only one loss. The SEC winner has a loss. Any other team you care to mention has one loss. Describe a scenario whereby ND doesn't get in.

Without factoring in ANY "presumed" SOSs 6 weeks from now from NOT only the teams in the running, but the SOSs from those teams' opponents, and the SOSs from those opponents' opponents, yeah, sure I'll play along. But, it's pointless. However, I did say I'd form a scenario, so here's one...

But assuming I get my own set of scenarios (which is only fair, considering you DID say ND would beat any other 1 loss team "no matter what because they're ND," so it shouldn't matter what the scenario is, now should it?) this is how I'd see it working against ND (or just one way): ND beats a 1-2 loss USC team, which I think is extremely realistic, and a UCLA team which continues to rack up wins against mere nobodies. There you go, there are your two big second half wins. Their biggest opponent for that #2 spot will be Tennessee. Under my sequences, Tennessee will win-out and finish with one loss, and if they do, I say they coast to the #2 spot. Yep, coast. Especially because we'd be talking about, in total, wins over CAL (a top 10 team), Georgia, LSU, Arkansas (all respectably ranked teams with one or two creeping into the top ten themselves), and a possibly/potentially ranked Bama squad. Plus UT's lone loss to Florida is just as good, and probably better than ND's lone loss to Michigan. ESPECIALLY because everybody and their cousin sees Michigan losing to OSU. Of course, we can't really know all this yet, can we? Again, too many variables, but anyhoo...

While ND is steamrolling the likes of Navy, UNC, Air Force, and Army, UT will have solidified a comfy little lead. And under my story line, ND would be beating an on-the-outter-edge-of-the-top-ten USC team by that point, which CERTAINLY wouldn't be enough to leapfrog them ahead of UT. Not a chance. You're putting far too much stock into one game, when in reality, when it's all said and done, UT will have a much more impressive resume from top to bottom.

And shit, if we're talking human element here, since you're quick to go down that route yourself, if we're talking voters...guess what, a one loss UT team vs a one loss ND team has the edge there too. Certainly some folks will use the UF/Michigan games as equal-footing determinants, since UF and Michigan are fairly equal in terms of talent, and are both very quality opponents. And certainly they'll remember that when ND was destroyed, and I mean DESTROYED by Michigan in South Bend, they'll probably just as likely remember how UT lost in a squeaker, yep, lost by a mere point to UF. Almost pulled it out, in fact. Yep, they'll remember those games very well.

Terry in Crapchester · Tue Oct 10, 2006 11:49 am

I'll echo what Killian said in his initial post.

As for the rest, and what this thread has turned into, it's far too early right now to project who will be playing for the national championship. ND isn't completely out of the picture at this juncture, but suffice it to say that we'll need quite a bit of help to get there. We've gotten some of that already, but we'll need more.

But if ND does reach the BCS and doesn't reach the title game, I see us going to the Sugar Bowl rather than the Fiesta. Of the three BCS bowls with one open slot, the Sugar has the first pick, and I don't see any way, with the Sugar Bowl returning to New Orleans this year, that they pass us up. The only way we wind up in the Fiesta Bowl would be if the Big 12 champ, likely Texas, plays for the national championship, in which case the Fiesta would get either the first or second pick.

Killian · Post by **Killian** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 1:08 pm

TheJON wrote:Van,

Notre Dame deserves special treatment. They've earned it. Just ask Killian, he'll tell ya!

It's not surprising that this is the only thing you took out of the spanking I gave to you.

As far as the BCS process goes, there is still way too much time left in the season for things to play out in a thousand different directions. If Georgia Tech continues to win and wins the ACC, ND will get a huge boost in their computer rankings. Same with Michigan and if they only have one loss to OSU. If PSU and Purdue both play well and go to a bowl, that will also help, ditto UCLA. But if an SEC team finishes with one loss, especially Florida or Tennessee, they will have a great SOS with the computers and will likely be ranked ahead of ND in the human polls.

Even if ND were to smoke an undefeated USC team and jump the one loss SEC team, ND would likely be hard pressed to make up ground with the computers because there would be a similar strength of schedule and the SEC team would get another boost with the SEC championship game.

ND lost control of their own destiny when they decided to step all over their dick against UofM and UofM stomped on their throat. Now, it's in the hands of the voters and computers, which recently haven't been kind to ND when it comes to NC implications.

Ken · Post by **Ken** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 1:11 pm

Van wrote:Ken, the human element still makes up a component of the BCS formula. Jesus, is this that difficult for your obstinate ass to comprehend??

Also, humans still program computers. On top of all that, I'd like to think you're not so naive as to think that CF and the networks don't have some bit of sway with the overall process, behind the scenes.

So, fuck off.

Don't give me that bullshit, van. What a load.
Firstly, don't try and tell me about t he components of the BCS formula when it was YOU who just a few posts ago seemed to 'forget' that the BCS formula pits 1 vs. 2.

Van: What do you mean ND won't be in the title game? I mean, don't the voters and networks all get together at Applebees right after Christmas and cut a deal to get 'em there?

Hell, you don't even understand how 1 and 2 get to the title game... at least that's sure the way it appeared. This conspiracy crap is just that... conspiracy crap.

But even though, I will be party to your argument here. No effing crapola there is a human component to the formula. Yes, the formula can be 'bent' a bit in favor of one or another team with the human element and voting. But don't try and pass off the notion that it carries enough weight to do more than gently coax 'em a bit. 'Cuz that's what it would take. Further, I think we've ALL seen some of the idiocy of the voters, be it in the coaches or Harris poll. Complete idiocy. So, if you think the mental temerity is there to take into account who played who previously, we don't want 'that' game again, etc, etc, etc, you're pretty naive. Shit... wasn't Duke ranked in the Harris poll last year? Yeah, THAT'S a recipe for intelligence.

the Coaches Poll: If you think that the coaches, errrrr check that... their secretaries will play with their picks to give ND a higher ranking in the hopes that they will make it to the title game.... you're just plain stupid. Probably ugly too. Even the coaches who actually DO make their own picks... yeah, I see THEM favoring ND

So, that's two of the three components to the formula (Harris and coaches poll) which you somehow think will pick up the nearest machete and hack their way through the tall weeds of idiocy and hatred for ND only to do what they can to get them into the title game. That leaves us with the computer rankings as your saving grace. Good luck with that.

Of the six or seven (who effing knows) rankings, even if one or two did what they could to 'bend' their formula... see ya. One gets kicked out as per the overall formula. Hope that other one ranked ND #1 by a WIIIIIIDE margin, 'cuz now, there's even more ground to make up. Computer rankings. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Oh... but I forgot 'bout the meeting at Applebees. Yeah, my bust. An undeserving ND in the title game.

That's quite a load of crap you're shoveling off the truck there, van. Quite the load. But like the van you are, you'll walk these halls completely ignorant to other's opinions and facts... just straight ahead. Carry on.

Van · Post by **Van** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 2:24 pm

Ken, in all seriousness, on what planet do you live where you see ND as being hated by coaches and writers??

Have you failed to notice that ND is nearly always overrated by those same coaches and writers, just as soon as ND gives them any reason whatsoever to do so?

Mgo, yep, you echoed the one scenario I granted you: ND's opponents go completely into the tank, ruining SOS's 'puter rankings. That was why I mentioned ND beating an undefeated USC. That would be an enormous end of season attention grabber that would elevate them over any other one loss team. Yeah, if USC has already lost twice by the time that game rolls around then that'd take all the air out of that balloon for ND...

Killian · Post by **Killian** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 3:17 pm

There are always a sect of coaches and writers that have ND extreemly low in their polls. Last year Spurrier had ND in the 20's after the USC game and this year, Craig James had ND 19th after the Purdue game.

While these are the outliers, there are enough of them that can actually cause a difference in ND's overall ranking. Had James and the other two or three writers that had ND extreemly low voted on average with the rest of the writers, ND would have been one spot higher and just points behind the second.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Tue Oct 10, 2006 3:24 pm

Van wrote:Mgo, yep, you echoed the one scenario I granted you: ND's opponents go completely into the tank, ruining SOS's 'puter rankings.

I really didn't imply ND's opponents would go into the tank. My whole premise was that their resume wouldn't be as impressive as UT's, after everything is said and done. I mentioned, in my scenario, ND would beat a 1-2 loss SC team. That hardly qualifies as a team going "into the tank." Beating a 2 loss SC team would still be a huge win, but I don't think it would be enough to get them over the top of UT, who "should" finish the season, again, with a much more impressive overall resume than ND. As for the rest of ND's opponents, they're just poorous to begin with, so "tanking" isn't even necessary under my scenario (with the excepction of UCLA, but the jury is still out on that one being a real quality win since they haven't beaten anyone yet.)

Let's not forget what your original argument was though. Your original argument was, essentially, that a one loss ND team would beat out any other one loss team, or a "sea of one loss teams," as you put it, simply because the "powers that be" would have it no other way - simply because it's Notre Dame. And that's just simply not the case. It ain't that simple anymore.

Killian · Post by **Killian** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 3:39 pm

NDs strength of schedule will largely depend on Georgia Tech, Penn State, Michigan, UCLA and USC. If those teams finished ranked with only 1-3 losses, ND's SOS should be up near Tennessee's.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Tue Oct 10, 2006 4:14 pm

Yeah, there are so many variables involved that it isn't even worth debating. At least not this early in the season. Any scenario we could come up with is still far too complex to form a conclusion from. We'd have to determine the countless sub-scenarios for the original scenarios. We're talking about how teams will do against teams, against teams, against teams, etc.

I'll admit Van suckered me into an argument I didn't want to take, but I did, for the sake of entertainment.

My whole entry into this fray had to do only with Van's claim that a one loss ND team would get the #2 spot over any other 1 loss team "simply because it's ND."

That's what I contested, but things spiraled out of control into a whirlwind of nothing but presumptuos "guessworking."

He later abandoned that argument, and argued on the basis of win/loss scenarios of ND's opponents. Whereas, before, the particulars of ND's opponents didn't seem to matter much, so long as "Notre Dame is Notre Dame."

He started whistling a different tune, and I have yet to see him return to his original argument, which is the only argument I really intended on countering.

Terry in Crapchester · Tue Oct 10, 2006 4:38 pm

Killian wrote:NDs strength of schedule will largely depend on Georgia Tech, Penn State, Michigan, UCLA and USC. If those teams finished ranked with only 1-3 losses, ND's SOS should be up near Tennessee's.

To a lesser extent, I'd throw Purdue and possibly Air Force in that mix, along with Michigan State if they can somehow get it turned around (although that might be asking a bit much). Navy figures to finish somewhere in the neighborhood of 8-4 or so, but that's against an extremely weak SOS, so they probably won't be in position to help ND much.

No more than 3 losses for UCLA might be asking a bit much, btw. With USC, Cal, Oregon and us on their schedule, they'll need at least one huge upset to get to that point.

Edit to add: My bad on Navy. At this point they project at 9-3, with Rutgers and ND projecting as losses, and Duke, Eastern Michigan, Temple and Army projecting as wins (of those four, only Army has won a game all season). I must have projected Navy would split with Air Force and UConn earlier to get an 8-4 record, but Navy won both games.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Tue Oct 10, 2006 4:56 pm

Of the six computer polls that will be used to determine a 1/3 of the BCS formula, here's how the top ten look for each, as we stand right now (not trying to make a point with this, just think some of the differences are interesting):

Massey:

1 Ohio St
2 USC
3 Florida
4 Michigan
5 Louisville
6 Tennessee
7 CAL
8 Texas
9 Boise St
10 Notre Dame

Sagarin-Elo:

1 Ohio St
2 Florida
3 USC
4 Michigan
5 Tennessee
6 Texas
7 CAL
8 Louisville
9 Boise St
10 Auburn
...
19 Notre Dame (this is pretty ridiculous)

Billingsley:

1 Ohio St
2 USC
3 Michigan
4 Florida
5 WVU
6 Texas
7 CAL
8 Notre Dame
9 Oregon
10 Louisville

Anderson:

1 USC
2 Ohio St
3 Florida
4 Michigan
5 Louisville
6 Notre Dame
7 Arkansas
8 Tennessee
9 Missouri
10 Boise St

Colley:

1 USC
2 Ohio St
3 Florida
4 Michigan
5 Notre Dame
6 Boise St
7 Missouri
8 Tennessee
9 Louisville
10 Auburn

Wolfe: Won't be released until 10/15/06.