Sports Betting for Week of October 22nd

Mook · Post by **Mook** » Tue Oct 17, 2006 4:29 pm

New week. Last week treated me well. 9-3 in college bringing my college record on here to 23-12. Here are some initial thoughts for this week. Input is appreciated. Adel saved me some $$'s a couple of weeks ago getting me off of Air Force.

Ole Miss +17...................Arkansas; Most Arkansas games have not been blowouts. I'll take improving Miss and the points.

Miss St. +18....................Georgia; Georgia has not been impressive and I'll take anybody +18 against them.

Vandy +3.5.....................S. Carolina; USC is favored on the road, why??

Cal -23...........................Washington; Stanback is out and Cal is on a roll.

Iowa St +2.5...................Texas Tech; Once again what has Tech done this year to deserve to be favored on the road?

Colorado +12.5...............Oklahoma; Not sure how OU will respond to Peterson's absence, or score any points for that matter.

Air Force -14...................SDSU; SDSU just flat sucks.

I'm sure I'll pull a couple of these off and add a couple of others. I don't really like this week much right now.

Eaglebauer · Post by **Eaglebauer** » Tue Oct 17, 2006 9:28 pm

Three obvious 'right sides' to me in the NFL this week, although I'm in no hurry to bet them yet and will have to research some more.

Again all home dogs:
CLEV +4.5
TB +5
OAK +3.5

Adelpiero · Post by **Adelpiero** » Tue Oct 17, 2006 10:17 pm

betting 100 on cardinals +120

Eaglebauer · Post by **Eaglebauer** » Tue Oct 17, 2006 10:27 pm

Adelpiero wrote:betting 100 on cardinals +120

Where's last week's thread?

Eaglebauer · Post by **Eaglebauer** » Tue Oct 17, 2006 10:36 pm

also -- HOMER.

at least you're bucking the 'public' Mets, though. :wink:

Mook · Post by **Mook** » Tue Oct 17, 2006 10:58 pm

I think the Browns will beat Denver straight up.

As for baseball, can't bet it. Drives me insane.

Adelpiero · Post by **Adelpiero** » Tue Oct 17, 2006 11:03 pm

Eaglebauer wrote:
Adelpiero wrote:betting 100 on cardinals +120
Where's last week's thread?

i tried to unsticky it, and deleted it

not betting with my hoem team, like the matchup, plus i think the rain out changes the momentum. yankees went from beating up tigers, to sitting out a night cause of rain, to being totally demolished. monetum changed in the series big time.

and with all of the everyone vs pujols shit, i see him having a big game.

Eaglebauer · Post by **Eaglebauer** » Tue Oct 17, 2006 11:07 pm

Adelpiero wrote:
Eaglebauer wrote:
Adelpiero wrote:betting 100 on cardinals +120
Where's last week's thread?
i tried to unsticky it, and deleted it

You just wanted to delete your tard bet on Bears -12.5

buckeye_in_sc · Post by **buckeye_in_sc** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 1:17 pm

In talking with all my Cleveland buddies (grew up there) the Browns are HORRID...their defense stinks...

I think the Denver pass game will have a field day (weather permitting)...but that is just my opinion...

I like Duke +the points this weekend against Gold Toof U...

where do you guys place your wagers?

Eaglebauer · Post by **Eaglebauer** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 4:09 pm

buckeye_in_sc wrote:In talking with all my Cleveland buddies (grew up there) the Browns are HORRID...their defense stinks...

You don't get 5 points at home for having a dominating D.

where do you guys place your wagers?

I like to bonus whore, so I move in and out of places all the time.

sportsbookreview.com is an excellent guide for finding reputable books and good bonuses.

buckeye_in_sc · Post by **buckeye_in_sc** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 5:03 pm

yeah but they are much worse than getting 4.5 points or whatever at home...

heck when they came to Charlotte they got somewhere between 7.5 - 8.5 depending on the sports book and the Panthers aren't exactly a run and gun team...

maybe I am missing something (which is probably the case) but with the Broncos offense and the fact that the Browns D is shitty I figured the line would be somewhere around the 7.5 - 9.5 range...just my opinion though...

pile on...

Mook · Post by **Mook** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 5:17 pm

The Denver offense sucks. I think they had one good game against Denver and that's it. I honestly think Cleveland wins this game. Denver is coming off a game against Oakland, which is a rivalry and looking ahead to Indy next. I think they look past Cleveland and get an L.

As for where I bet, I use a couple of different sites. Pinnacle is a good place for early lines and low juice.

That Venetian Poker room ain't bad is it? Very spacious, unlike most everywhere else. Next time you are out there you ought to play at Excalibur, the absolute softest games anywhere on the face of the earth in my opinion. Not a nice place, not really even a mediocre place but it is just overflowing with terrible players. I hardly ever play anywhere else now.

Eaglebauer · Post by **Eaglebauer** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 5:36 pm

buckeye_in_sc wrote:yeah but they are much worse than getting 4.5 points or whatever at home...

heck when they came to Charlotte they got somewhere between 7.5 - 8.5 depending on the sports book and the Panthers aren't exactly a run and gun team...

That was on the road. Big difference between getting 3.5+ points on the road and at home. (3 points for homefield advantage and all).

maybe I am missing something (which is probably the case) but with the Broncos offense and the fact that the Browns D is shitty I figured the line would be somewhere around the 7.5 - 9.5 range...just my opinion though...

pile on...

I ain't going to pile on. But just looking at some power ratings gives a better starting point to assess the line. Sagarin is at just over 3. Looking at all the ones out there I'd say they all average out to around 5 or 6 or so. So I doubt the proper line would be any where over 7.

Anyway, in the end, Denver may very well be the right side. In fact, since I've said all this, I'm sure they'll cash big.

Mook · Post by **Mook** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 5:41 pm

Eaglebauer wrote: Anyway, in the end, Denver may very well be the right side. In fact, since I've said all this, I'm sure they'll cash big.

No........the fact that I think the Browns will win means the right side is Denver!!!

buckeye_in_sc · Post by **buckeye_in_sc** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 6:17 pm

Thanks for the information...

Mook - paris has some pretty soft games as well...wish I had known about the Excalibur game...would have played there...might check it out in February...

i hear Bally's has a soft game as well since it really isn't a room more or less (like Paris) a space carved out in the middle of the casino making it less intimidating for novice players (or so the theory goes)...

what limit did you play at Excalibur?

I still think Denver wins...born and raised in Cleveland and I absolutely HATE the FUCKING BROWNS...like I said Denver's O might be so-so but the Cleveland D is so bad I think 11 of us from this board could put 21 on them...

pile away...

Mook · Post by **Mook** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 7:27 pm

Paris and Bally's are fairly comparable to each other. I've only played at each of them once, and I was slobbering drunk when I played at Paris.......so I don't have a real feel for level of competition there.

Excalibur doesn't have high limits, I believe they only go to 4-8 and maybe 6-12. They have a 2-6 spread game that is ridiculously bad. NL games are 1-2 and 2-5, also very soft. Just find the one or two other players at the table who are adept and watch out for them, otherwise pound away. There isn't a room there, just some tables in the middle of the casino floor. It isn't nice and it isn't high limit, but trust me, you can make a lot of money in here and you can usually find games anytime of day or night. I've always had pretty good luck at Wynn as well.......obviously the opposite end of the spectrum from Excalibur, but I like to play there. All in all I think the Vegas strip is a good place to play because there are a lot of people who are a) not very good; b) tourists and don't really care if they win or lose; c)drunk; d)more drunk; e)ridiculously tired from all the drinking, gambling and lack of sleep or f) all of the above. Mostly though people are having fun and I think the games on the Strip are a good time. If you just think about what you are doing and play straightforward, you'll do fine.

Dinsdale · Post by **Dinsdale** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 9:35 pm

Great general rule of thumb...

If one of your "locks" or good bets is a road favotire by more tham .5 - 1.5 ....then it's a good bet...TO SKIP IT.

Wanna come out ahead for the season? Never bet against a home dog. Bet on them, or skip it, but NEVER bet against them...unless you're really a compulsive gambler.

Of course now that I said it, it's a pretty safe bet Denver will win by 36.

Adelpiero · Post by **Adelpiero** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 10:08 pm

Betting $70(80 number didnt work) on lou lafayette-8

they beat a decent houston team away, Fla atlantic has been getting their asses handed to them, while on the road, they havent exactly been in games.

if lou lafayette gets the ground game going, they should hammer the owls

Adelpiero · Post by **Adelpiero** » Thu Oct 19, 2006 2:21 am

biggest cripple fight i have ever seen

fla atlantic has done nothing, lou la misses an easy fg, and they run the same fucking delay on every 3rd and long.

ok, i'm done with the sun belt teams, usually you can pick on cripple conferences, but these guys suck.

Degenerate · Post by **Degenerate** » Thu Oct 19, 2006 2:49 pm

buckeye_in_sc wrote:In talking with all my Cleveland buddies (grew up there) the Browns are HORRID...their defense stinks...

I think the Denver pass game will have a field day (weather permitting)...but that is just my opinion...

The Browns pass defense has been surprisingly stout. It's the run defense that continues to be abysmal.

Take the under.

Eaglebauer · Post by **Eaglebauer** » Thu Oct 19, 2006 5:28 pm

Degenerate wrote:
buckeye_in_sc wrote:In talking with all my Cleveland buddies (grew up there) the Browns are HORRID...their defense stinks...

I think the Denver pass game will have a field day (weather permitting)...but that is just my opinion...
The Browns pass defense has been surprisingly stout. It's the run defense that continues to be abysmal.

Take the under.

Total is at 31. Not much value.

Adelpiero · Post by **Adelpiero** » Thu Oct 19, 2006 11:11 pm

100 on central -7 1/2
100 virginia -7
50 central/bowling under 50 1/2
50 new m/utah over 41

Adelpiero · Post by **Adelpiero** » Thu Oct 19, 2006 11:17 pm

Web Page Name

free pick every day

last time i checked their free pick out(2 years ago), they went 35-3 in a 38 day stretch, then nba and hockey was only thing left and they went 50-50 every other day.

i have only bet 6 of their picks, and they went 5-1, only loss was a cheap back door cover as 4th string rb fumbles with 1 minute to go, team kicks a fg to make the cover, even know they were down 30m they wanted that fg,

couple of them were outright dog wins, only pick the game if i like the side

Adelpiero · Post by **Adelpiero** » Fri Oct 20, 2006 2:42 am

Adelpiero wrote:100 on central -7 1/2
100 virginia -7
50 central/bowling under 50 1/2
50 new m/utah over 41

need 8 pts in 2nd half of utah/nm game for 4-0 day and up +243 for week.

nice to start off the week decent,

winds will be 25-45 MPH for uconn/west virginia game. doesnt really make a big difference, both teams are running teams. west virginia knows they have to put some points up, a lot of doubters on west virginia and a top 5 ranking, etc, blah blah. give the points

Dinsdale · Post by **Dinsdale** » Fri Oct 20, 2006 4:48 am

5 freaking homedogs on the NFL card this weekend. Don't see that very often.

And I don't like any of them.

Might have to parlay

NYJ -5.5 over Detroit

Indy -9.5 over Washington

and...

If I'm doing the state parlay game, I like to pick something on Monday, since it makes for a day's worth of anticipation...how about NYG(the state vcalls then New Jersey, since they can't use team names) +3.5.

Those are the three I like best. Although...any time the weather in Seattle has been wet, then turns warm and sunny, the over is often a good bet. But at 42.5....tough call. Heck, I'll go with it.

Mook · Post by **Mook** » Fri Oct 20, 2006 7:14 am

Here's the final picks for Saturday. Another 10 bet day. Lots of doggies.

Ole Miss +20.5.........................Arkansas
Vandy +3.5.............................South Carolina
Arizona St -23.........................Stanford; I can't help myself, Stanford just sucks so much.
Iowa St +2..............................Texas Tech
UTEP +6..................................Houston
Colorado +14...........................Oklahoma
Ga Tech +7.5...........................Clemson
New Mexico St +20.5................Hawaii
Air Force -13.5.........................San Diego State
aTm +3.5................................Oklahoma State
Mississippi St. +18...................Georgia
Cal -13.5; 1st half....................Washington

I bet on some real dogcrap teams/games this week. Here's hoping they turn out well.

Adelpiero · Post by **Adelpiero** » Fri Oct 20, 2006 10:31 am

the lock of the week could be over in boise/idaho. both teams are going to score some points, and i see idaho scoring 17-24 points. no reason boise doesnt jack up 40+.

still getting my games going

Eaglebauer · Post by **Eaglebauer** » Fri Oct 20, 2006 2:20 pm

Ari/Chi was my biggest bet of the year and a huge win for me last week. Usually whenever I have a great week I come back the next week over-confident betting too many games and end up giving back more than I should. This week I have a lot of sides I think are the right side, but I'm not in love with any of them. So I'm still going to bet a lot of games but I'm going to go conservative and bet way small. I kinda like all of the following (ALL dogs):

BUF+5.5
Car +3 (ev)
HOU +10
KC +5.5
Gb +5
OAK +3
Min +7
CLEV +4.5
TB +5.5

Way too many games to bet really. But I think the public fav stock is due for another 'market correction'. :wink: I think if I wait till gametime on most of them I can get a better line. Maybe 6s on the homedogs. I'm considering teasing all the 4.5-5.5 point dogs to 10.5+ on 6-point even money teasers instead of playing straight.

Mook · Post by **Mook** » Fri Oct 20, 2006 3:30 pm

The over should hit easily in NMSU/Hawaii as well. It's currently set at 68.5. Even with the high total this should be a good over.

Adelpiero · Post by **Adelpiero** » Fri Oct 20, 2006 10:19 pm

$50 west virginia -24

still debating some saturday games

Shine · Post by **Shine** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 2:53 am

With Mook on a few, against on 1.

Nebraska +7 (feel the outright W coming too)
South Carolina -3.5
Colorado +14
Georgia Tech +7
Iowa +14
Texas A&M +3.5
Tennessee -11.5

Adelpiero · Post by **Adelpiero** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 4:17 pm

bet too0 many games again 6-1 to start week, +293

80 pitt -6
50 indinan +31
50 tcu -12
50 vir tech -16
80 arkansas -20 1/2
50 notre dame -13
50 vandy +3 1/2
80 byu -29
50 baylor - 3 1/2
80 n.illinois -32
50 e.carolina - 5
80 texas -5
50 purdue +7
80 tenn -10 1/2
80 cal -24
80 wyoming -4
50 central fla -5 1/2
50 akron -7 1/2
50 zona st -23 1/2
50 nevada -12 1/2
50 oregon st - 2 1/2
50 houston -6
50 lou tech -6 1/2
50 LSU -32
50 Iowa st +2
50 Oklahoma st -3
80 missouri -14 1/2
50 uab -5 1/2
80 clemson -7
80 florida st -7
80 tulsa -14
80 air force -13 1/2
50 idaho +21
80 oregon -3 1/2
50 midle ten st -4
80 hawaii -20 1/2
80 ohio-17

80 lou/syr under 55
80 ballst/w.mich under 51
80 idaho/boise over 57 1/2
50 auburn/tulane under 50
80 hawaii/nmsu over 75 1/2

wow, too many games,

Eaglebauer · Post by **Eaglebauer** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 5:06 pm

Adelpiero wrote:bet too0 many games again 6-1 to start week, +293

80 pitt -6
50 indinan +31
50 tcu -12
50 vir tech -16
80 arkansas -20 1/2
50 notre dame -13
50 vandy +3 1/2
80 byu -29
50 baylor - 3 1/2
80 n.illinois -32
50 e.carolina - 5
80 texas -5
50 purdue +7
80 tenn -10 1/2
80 cal -24
80 wyoming -4
50 central fla -5 1/2
50 akron -7 1/2
50 zona st -23 1/2
50 nevada -12 1/2
50 oregon st - 2 1/2
50 houston -6
50 lou tech -6 1/2
50 LSU -32
50 Iowa st +2
50 Oklahoma st -3
80 missouri -14 1/2
50 uab -5 1/2
80 clemson -7
80 florida st -7
80 tulsa -14
80 air force -13 1/2
50 idaho +21
80 oregon -3 1/2
50 midle ten st -4
80 hawaii -20 1/2
80 ohio-17

80 lou/syr under 55
80 ballst/w.mich under 51
80 idaho/boise over 57 1/2
50 auburn/tulane under 50
80 hawaii/nmsu over 75 1/2

wow, too many games,

Too many games is right. You can't possibly believe you have an edge in more than 5 of these. Win or lose, long-term you're just throwing money down the drain in juice. Unless you just really enjoy the action, and don't mind paying for it.

Eaglebauer · Post by **Eaglebauer** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 5:10 pm

Think the baseball Cardinals +180 are a good value today.

.55 units to win 1 unit

Adelpiero · Post by **Adelpiero** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 5:44 pm

Eaglebauer wrote:Think the baseball Cardinals +180 are a good value today.

.55 units to win 1 unit

i havent bet more than 6 baseball games(5wins), but im scared to play that game. if the cards were hitting, id be happy to take the +200 for series and +180 for game, ill enjoy while at fairmount park betting the simu cast shit tonight

honestly, i like many of those games, plsu i like the action. i have 2100 in an envelope in case i get crushed. have to pay the bookie 148 tonight while at track. then maybe some hold'em at the prez. bad beat is at 80K someone said

Mook · Post by **Mook** » Sun Oct 22, 2006 2:29 am

WTF is up with Bob Stoops!!! Who doesn't just sit on the ball with 1st and goal and 30 seconds left in 2 touchdown game???? That fuckin' spread-watching son of a bitch!!!

Not a good day so far. Need a couple of wins late just to salvage a very bad week. This has bordered on disastrous so far. Oh well, I'll bet a couple of NFL games later.

Nice call on the Huskers, Shine. They should have won.

God Bless Stanford!! They are God's gift to gamblers this season.

Mook · Post by **Mook** » Sun Oct 22, 2006 3:46 am

Thank God for New Mexico State and the over.....made it a simply "bad" week and not horrific.

Mook · Post by **Mook** » Sun Oct 22, 2006 7:17 am

Here comes my NFL train-wreck:

Washington +8.5
Atlanta +2..5
Philly -5.5
Carolina +3
Cleveland +4.5
Arizona -3

Adelpiero · Post by **Adelpiero** » Sun Oct 22, 2006 9:21 am

my sunday games, have to travel to dayton, then drive back. luckily i have sirius radio for all of the nfl games.

70 houston + 9 1/2
70 pitt - 2 1/2
70 miami -5
70 philly - 5 1/2
70 nyj - 3 1/2

70 wash/indy under 48 1/2
70 seattle - 6 1/2
70 arizona -3

not sure who ill take in south fla/cinccy and the late game

Eaglebauer · Post by **Eaglebauer** » Sun Oct 22, 2006 11:43 pm

Eaglebauer wrote: BUF+5.5
Car +3 (ev)
HOU +10
KC +5.5
Gb +5
OAK +3
Min +7
CLEV +4.5
TB +5.5
.

Well, these went 6-2-1 (7-2 for anyone who advisedly buys the hook on Car). Not bad.