Three tiers to the title

[Dinsdale]

My best guess is that would put us among the top 50 3-point shooting teams in the country. And if my math is correct, we have more 3-point attempts than Oregon.

Wow, Terry...you must be one HELL of a lawyer.

I say "I looked through the NCAA stats..."

You counter with "My best guess contradicts that."


Yes, ND is among the top 50 3pt % teams. No, they aren't really that close in attempts-per-game to Oregon(roughly two-a-game difference). Of the top 50 3pt teams, only Bradly has taken more(as of 1/28/07). Even with the updated 505 number, they still haven't taken as many, and bear in mind Oregon always plays their first game of the week on thursday(not sure why, but just about every PAC conference game is on thursday or saturday, and Oregon usually sticks to the thurs/sat thing OOC, too, for about as long as I can remember).


But if you think about it, the 40% range is good. If you factor in the extra point it's worth, you can kindasorta add half again the percetage, which would make 40% from 3 the equivalent of 60% from 2, which is a badass number...except for those long rebounds off the 3 that tend to result in highlight reel dunks on the other end...there is that. But, Wisky wouldn't do that to anyone, would they?

[Terry in Crapchester]

My best guess is that would put us among the top 50 3-point shooting teams in the country. And if my math is correct, we have more 3-point attempts than Oregon.

Wow, Terry...you must be one HELL of a lawyer.

I say "I looked through the NCAA stats..."

You counter with "My best guess contradicts that."

No, you said "I did a quick check of the NCAA stats." Now, I know you like to think of yourself as infallible, but that statement implies at least some possibility of error.

Yes, ND is among the top 50 3pt % teams. No, they aren't really that close in attempts-per-game to Oregon(roughly two-a-game difference). Of the top 50 3pt teams, only Bradly has taken more(as of 1/28/07). Even with the updated 505 number, they still haven't taken as many, and bear in mind Oregon always plays their first game of the week on thursday(not sure why, but just about every PAC conference game is on thursday or saturday, and Oregon usually sticks to the thurs/sat thing OOC, too, for about as long as I can remember).

My bad, I was trying to do the math in a hurry so I could get to court and messed something up. ND actually has 507 3-point attempts as of today.

[Dinsdale]

No, you said "I did a quick check of the NCAA stats."

So, in Terry's World...that same world where the Big East reigns supreme...your "guess" is more likely to be accurate than me actually looking at the stats?

I suppose with your well thought-out opinions on conference rankings, this isn't much of a shocker.

[Terry in Crapchester]

No, you said "I did a quick check of the NCAA stats."

So, in Terry's World...that same world where the Big East reigns supreme...your "guess" is more likely to be accurate than me actually looking at the stats?

Wrong again. I merely pointed out the possibility that you overlooked something.

[Shine]

Enough of the season has passed that I feel comfortable in putting the following teams, and ONLY the following teams, into the discussion for the title this year. There are some good teams that won’t make this list but when I examine everything I’ve seen the following teams are the only ones I can envision winning 4 games to get to the Final Four and then winning another game against a top level team to make the title game. Once you’re in the title game it’s a one and done scenario and anything can happen, but the teams on these tiers are IMO the only ones capable of getting there to have the shot.

Tier 1- the frontrunners

These are the three teams that have separated themselves from the pack to the point it would be an upset if they weren’t still playing come Final Four weekend.

Florida- the defending champs are as complete a team as you’ll find and with the experience they bring back they’ll be more than ready for anything the tourney can throw at them. They have an underrated PG and a deadly spot up shooter to go with their can’t be matched frontcourt.

UCLA- they were playing on the final Monday of the season last year and look poised to repeat the feat this year. They have some key injuries but have played very well through that and I’d expect they’ll be playing at full tilt when March rolls around. They have athletes galore and play a suffocating defense that is the difference between them and everybody else in the very good Pac-10 this year.

North Carolina- they are loaded with talent at every position and have depth at every position so despite their youth they are a favorite to win it all. Ever since their debacle at Virginia Tech they’ve been playing at another level and that level is scary for anyone left on their schedule.

Tier 2- a step behind

These are the teams that are just the slightest bit behind those front 3 but still good enough that seeing them still playing come Final Four weekend won’t be a shock.

Wisconsin- as well coached of a team as you’ll find anywhere. They have a legit superstar to count on in the clutch and carry them when needed. They couple that with lots of experience and depth and they do it running a system most teams aren’t accustomed to facing.

Ohio State- they showed in their game at UNC early on that they have the talent and athleticism to play with anyone and that was before they had a 7 foot monster in the middle. They’ve endured some growing pains in learning to blend it all together and they are still a very young team but by March I’d expect them to have it all put together and Oden to be as close to 100% as he’ll be this year.

Kansas- they can match their talent and depth up with anyone but they haven’t shown yet the ability to put it all together for a long stretch, and I can’t ignore the struggles Bill Self has had in the tournament. I’m still looking for someone to step up and take control of this team and if that happens the rest of the field better watch out.


Texas A&M- the kind of defense they play most nights will keep them in any game with any team. I’m just not sure if they’ve got the offensive firepower or a consistent enough 3rd option to win it all but I can’t ignore the defense they play and their top 2 scoring punch is good enough to win most nights.


Tier 3- the wildcards

These teams aren’t so dominant to be in the top 2 tiers but they each possess something that makes them legit sleepers to make a title run in March.

Marquette- their guard play is arguably the best in the country and despite the slight reemergence of the big man in the college game the tourney still comes down to guard play. They are reminiscent of the Villanova team of last year and the Illinois team of 05.

Texas- their young guys get better each week and they have the type of player in Durant who can put a team on his back in March and carry them to the title ala Danny and the Miracles.

Duke- I know this isn’t your older brothers Duke team, but in some ways that’s a good thing for the Dookies. They’re playing defense at a higher level than I’ve seen them play in a long time and they’re learning how to win close games by playing in so many of them. They have enough fatal flaws this year that they can’t be in the top 2 tiers but they also have enough talent, coaching and pieces to still make the cut for this tier.

Oregon- I still have doubts about this team but it’s impossible to ignore the results they’ve put up so far. They’ve won on the road at some tough places and that is very telling. I think their lack of D will be their undoing but they have enough offense and guard play to overcome that and go on a streak.

Nevada- I wanted to put one mid-majorish type team on the list and of the potential teams these guys had the best profile. They have a guy in Fazekas who can carry them much like Durant and they’ve proven they can play at a high level without him.


That’s it, that’s the list. Again there are some good teams not on this list but they’re not on the list for a reason. The team that ultimately cuts the nets down won’t be anyone other than someone listed above.

UPDATE

Tier 1 remains the same, as does Tier 2.

Tier 3 says goodbye to Duke and Oregon and hello to Washington State and Georgetown.

Duke can still maybe put a run together to the Elite 8 with the right draw but they don't have the horses to run with the big boys late in the tourney, they aren't winning it this year. My doubts on Oregon have proven accurate of late so I'm hard pressed to see them running off 6 in a row the good way.

Washington State has been extremely impressive and they'll be battle tested heading into the dance. The Hoyas are coming on strong and have a monster in the middle that can be a difference maker.

[King Crimson]

for those keeping score at home, last year's super knucklehead homer statement was Jon's "all 3 Iowa teams will make the Sweet 16"--possibly the all-timer ....but Dinsdale gets this year's trophy: for: "Oregon is the best run and gun team i've ever seen"...not Phi Slamma Jamma, Billy Tubbs' Sooners who averaged 100 points in a 40 minute game 3 years in a row, or Tark's Rebels.....it's this year's Oregon team.