DNDN

[Trampis]

Over two buying days last Friday and on Tuesday I bought 500+ shares of Dendreon(DNDN) stock for an average buying price of $4.51.Today the FDA,to some extent, approved there prostate cancer drug Provenge.Final approval is supposed to be on May 15 I think.

Theres lots of talk of the price of the stock going to between $10 to $14 real quick.What should I expect over the next few trading days?If it goes to 14 will the next day be a profit taking day and drop back down 8 or 9? What kind of wild swings does a stock take when its drug is approved by the FDA?

[KC Scott]

First - congrats on buying DNDN and hitting a rocket.

Pharmas that land an FDA approval often rocket, short term.
They then pull back after the realization that real revenue are still a considerable time away.

I looked over the key stats for DNDN and right now the market cap is over 1 Billion with their total revenues only $147K.
Not that they may not be worth that, someday, but for this moment you have a bubble.

The other thing that stood out is the short interest on DNDN is 32% of the outstanding shares.
That may hold the price up (or it may have been part of the reason it rocketed as high as 18 at the open) - for a while
But again, No way is DNDN worth that much at this moment -

My recommendation is to sell at least 50% at / above $13 and lock those profits it.
I don't know how your set up to monitor your stock - if your with an online brokerage you can watch the price and try and sell it higher.

I can't say how much it will pull back, but can tell you it definetly will after the short covering is over.
If you want to sell it all I'm 100% sure you'll be able to buy back in lower - but since the price is in totally unchartered territory.

Long term - you may want to hold a smaller portion - the best possible scenario is the drug turns out to be a blockbuster and they put a few more in the pipline and are eventually acquired by Amgen or similar. What typically happens though, is they have to issue more shares (dillution) which drives the price back down.

Here's a link to a board I used to follow that has a great thread on DNDN (3SOF has followed it since 2005:)

http://www.3stocksonfire.com/trading/in ... opic=904.0

Jump to page 25/26 for the latest

Hope this helps

[Trampis]

Thanks. Being very new to this stuff I had no Idea what to expect on Friday morning.I had no idea it would open at 18 the way it did.I was giddy to say the least. Would it go up more over the day,stay in the same area or go lower then back up?I was froze like a deer in the headlights.After watching it go up and down on its way to 17 I stepped away from the computer.That was stupid.An hour latter it was 16,will it go back up?way up?Or wil it continue to drop? Came back an hour latter to find it at 14,fuck,why didnt I sell at 17 or 18 I thought.By the time I reacted I sold all my shares at 13.15 then i rebought immediatly 150 shares at 13.25, just in case it starts to slowly go back upwards as its FDA approval date of May 15 approachs.

I should have relaxed a bit perhaps and waited to see what its going to do on Monday.Maybe it will go to 8? then not get FDA approval?

[Trampis]

Well my 200 shares of dndn at 13.25 went up of course,as anyone who pays attention to the market saw.$25 a share I think was the high before some negative press came out doubting the drug and stating that it was overpriced. I sold at 18.25 I think.Again I was a little late to maximize my profits.

So now I sit waiting to see how low it will drop before it starts to run up before its May 15th date with the drug approval board. A low of I think 15.71 was yesterday and today it went back up to 16.01.A wee bit of negative doubting press and I wonder if it will drop below $15? I wait for $14.50 then I buy back in.

[Mister Bushice]

You have just outlined what day trading is all about.

Lots of potential stress in there, unless you like the gamble.

Scotts advice of selling 50% is sound. You won't have lost anything and you're playing with house money you can move somewhere else.

[Trampis]

Well since I last sold my shares of DNDN at 18, the stock droped to around 15, then went up to 17 then back down this past monday to 15 again and today as I type it is at 21.70!!!!

I was kinda hoping to jump back in at around 14.25-14.50 with a little investment just to be in the action when the FDA's approval date of May 15th rolled around.Looks like I wont get a chance.

If the DNDN's drug Provenge is approved would it be smart to have some money in tag-a-long drug companies like CEGE and AGEN? They both had up days shortly after Provenges approval recomendation day.

[Trampis]

OUCH! Dendreons drug Provenge is NOT approved and the FDA tells Dendreon to try again in a year or two.

DNDN closed yesterday at $17.74 and opened today at $7.20!And closed at 6.33 for a 64% drop.

Glad I never bought back in! I guess thats how you lose your ass in the stock market.

I almost forgot,132 million shares were traded

[Trampis]

OUCH! Dendreons drug Provenge is NOT approved and the FDA tells Dendreon to try again in a year or two.

DNDN closed yesterday at $17.74 and opened today at $7.20!And closed at 6.33 for a 64% drop.

Glad I never bought back in! I guess thats how you lose your ass in the stock market.

I almost forgot,132 million shares were traded

And then Provenge was aproved, DNDN's stock price goes froma low in March 09 of 2.55 to a high of 57.67 of March 2010. Thats a 2261% increase