delany wants to expand big 11 for sake of big 11 network

[Terry in Crapchester]

All the more reason why the team to move to the Big 11 is Pitt or a Big XII school (ISU or Mizzou). ISU makes the most since geographically because it fits the Midwest mantra that is the Big 11

I don't think Pitt makes the jump. I think it's too costly with the Big East exit fee now at $5 million. The Big East is likely to retain its BCS automatic bid, and Pitt has a better chance at competing for the Big East title than it does for the Big Ten title anytime in the foreseeable future.

As for Missouri or Iowa State, from the Big Ten's standpoint Missouri makes more sense for a few reasons. First, Iowa State doesn't have the academic standards the Big Ten wants. Second, the state of Iowa is already represented in the Big Ten. And third, the state of Iowa doesn't have any media markets that are even remotely comparable to St. Louis and Kansas City. Between those two choices, the only question would be whether Missouri wants to make the jump.

88 might be right about westward Big Ten expansion, but from a geographic standpoint, it makes the most sense. From a geographic standpoint, the logical split in the Big Ten is east/west, not north/south, and adding a team to the west gives you a natural divisional split, the Indiana/Illinois border.

East: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue.
West: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Northwestern, Wisconsin.

Of course, that divisional alignment would place Michigan and Ohio State in the same division, so we know it's not going to happen.

The Big XII North needs a change bad and moving one team out and bringing another team in can maybe spark more interest in that division. Maybe Colorado St., Boise St., TCU, or UofH can make that happen. Who knows?

Boise State is not a good fit in the Big XII, geographically or otherwise. If Boise State winds up in a BCS conference, I see the Pac-10 as a more likely destination than the Big XII. TCU or Houston would be a better fit as a replacement for Baylor than for a North division school.

if the BCS conferences were that concerned about Notre Dame joining a BCS conference, they would just stop allowing BCS teams to schedule the Irish. You think NBC is going to pay that type of money to air games between Notre Dame and Marshall?
Take USC, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Stanford and then all of the BCS Conference schools that arent anual opponents of the Irish off of the Irish's schedule and the network leaves, the recruits leave and the Irish alumn will be forced to decide if they want to me a mid major independent playing a home and home with Boise State every year or if they want to join a conference

Ahh, therein lies the crux of at least some of my opposition to ND joining a conference. Most conference advocates seem to think it's necessary to appease the BCS. To that, I say why should ND sacrifice 120 years of tradition to appease an entity that didn't even exist 10 years ago, and might not exist 10 years from now?

I seriously doubt that the BCS wants any part of such a chicken fight. I suspect that if it were to happen, ND would dig in and try to do away with the BCS. If public opinion sided with Notre Dame, and it very well might, that would be the end of the BCS.

The only entity with the necessary muscle to force ND into a conference is the NCAA, not the BCS. So far, the NCAA has not shown any interest in doing that.

[MuchoBulls]

I don't think Pitt makes the jump. I think it's too costly with the Big East exit fee now at $5 million. The Big East is likely to retain its BCS automatic bid, and Pitt has a better chance at competing for the Big East title than it does for the Big Ten title anytime in the foreseeable future.

Terry, I have seen you post a couple of times about the Big East is "likely to retain" it's BCS bid. Where has it been stated otherwise? The Big East has a higher finish from its champion over the past couple of years than the ACC has and the Big East was able to use Louisville's high BCS ranking in 2004 as well.

[Terry in Crapchester]

Terry, I have seen you post a couple of times about the Big East is "likely to retain" it's BCS bid. Where has it been stated otherwise?

Nowhere that I know of. I use the phraseology "likely to retain" only because it is my understanding that every conference's automatic BCS bid is up for review after this season, based on the previous four seasons. A minimum of five, maximum of seven, conferences will get automatic BCS bids after that.

Fwiw, I'm predicting that the BCS will ultimately retain the status quo in that regard. The MWC might have a shot at an automatic bid if it were able to get Boise State onboard before the review takes place, but I don't think there's enough time for that to happen.

The Big East has a higher finish from its champion over the past couple of years than the ACC has and the Big East was able to use Louisville's high BCS ranking in 2004 as well.

Agreed. At least on those criteria, the Big East has a better claim for an automatic BCS bid than does the ACC.

[Danimal]

I don't like the way ND gets their ass kissed but I am against them joining a con. They have tradition as an independant and stand-out as the only big-name independant. I'd like to see that kept. The 11 should look elsewhere.


While I like TCU when I really consider things I don't if I want another Texas-based team in the 12. They get their way enough down there without having another representative. I imagine Okie St would move north if a Houston or TCU joined. That would be good for them. They would have a shot at taking the north and making the con-championship.

[BlindRef]

from mgoblog

http://mgoblog.blogspot.com/2007/07/big ... -cons.html



Big Ten Expansion: Pros and Cons
Yesterday's FanHouse post on Big Ten expansion must have set a record for number of intelligent comments without someone who types in all caps interjecting his learned opinion. And it's an interesting subject, so let's expound.

The situation: the Des Moines Register talks to Jim Delaney and Kirk Ferentz; the subject of conference expansion comes up. Delaney points out that there is a powerful new motive to expand: the Big Ten Network. A new school provides that much more content for the channel to carry and, if it's in a place not currently a part of the network's footprint, that many more basic cable subscribers. Hopefully. Maybe. Probably not if it's Rutgers.

So, goal for expansion:

Maintain the CIC's high standards. The CIC is an academic consortium consisting of the Big Ten schools and the U of Chicago. It's a big deal to people, so any school admitted should have serious research going on in their grad schools and so forth and so on. Large public state schools are the preferred targets, although exceptions can be made.
Expand the geographical reach of the conference. This increases the core recruiting area for the conference, the number of eyeballs watching on television, and the amount of money flowing into the BTN's coffers.
Add interesting football teams.
Add interesting basketball teams.
Try to keep travel costs down by picking someone reasonably nearby.
And on with the contenders...

The Big East
Syracuse

PROs: An academic fit. Good basketball program. Adds upstate New York as a television market -- NYC won't care. Considering the addition of hockey. Football program has rich history.

CONs: Football program stuck in long-term malaise since departure of McNabb. Plays home games in snoozy dome named for maker of air conditioners. Sort of an awkward geographic fit, though it's a shorter distance to Syracuse than it is to Penn State from here if you use the wonder of Canada.

Verdict: A plan B school. It would bring in a decent-sized market that has few pro sports, but sexiness level is very low.

Rutgers

PROs: Also an academic fit. Better location than Syracuse; has the only program in the universe that could get New York City interested in college football even a little; even if it doesn't still brings in New Jersey. Provides a real rival for Penn State.

As potential world domination plans go, "conquer New York" is third only to capturing Notre Dame or audaciously (and mildly senselessly) picking off Texas from the Big Twelve.

CONs: Has been a total doormat for the enter non-Schiano existence of their program. Last year's Texas Bowl win was great... but as a 40 year high point not so much. Basketball program also bleah.

Verdict: A high stakes gamble, and how. Michigan's in on a ton of New Jersey recruits this year, so I've noticed a new trend: these guys are actually listing and seriously considering Rutgers. Safety Brandon Smith has them slightly trailing us. JB Fitzgerald has them in his top group with UF and us. Witherspoon listed them. They're probably going to get offensive lineman Art Forst. This is a new development, and even if they're striking out on the kinds of guys that get offers from Michigan and UF they're probably going to recruit better than a lot of mid-level Big Ten schools this year. Joining the Big Ten would probably be another boost. So... I don't think this is a flash in the pan. As long as Schiano stays.

That's the bet here: that Schiano can be a program patriarch for the Scarlet Knights. That Rutgers success can be sustained. That when Joe Paterno finally retires, he stays. That the move to the Big Ten provides a further boost. That the program is relevant enough to retain people's interest. Because the downside here is stark: my God, we've admitted Temple.

Louisville

PROs: An up-and-comer in college athletics, dumping money into their programs. Poised for long term success in both football and basketball. Adds a foothold in SEC country, bringing in markets in Kentucky.

CONs: Academics don't measure up; are reputedly not even close. Definitely a new money situation here: stadium named after a pizza company, JUCO-heavy basketball team, etc. Will they continue their success under Kragthorpe?

Verdict: But for the academics, a good choice. I would prefer them to any other available team save the real home runs; unfortunately I think the CIC thing is a dealbreaker.

Cincinnati

PROs: Geographic fit. Finally had the stones to jettison Bob Huggins; basketball team now sucky but not a haven for delinquents. Would provide instate competition for Ohio State.

CONs: Just recently jumped out of CUSA and unlike UL has experienced scant success. Only real success was under the shadow of Huggins. I don't know about their academics.

Also: I always, always spell it "Cincinatti," and I'd have to correct it a lot more often. No thanks.

Verdict: What's the point? Is anyone going to think to themselves "oooh, Cincinnati"? No.

Pitt

PROs: Geographic and academic fit. Also provides natural rival for Penn State. Football program has rich history; basketball program would be a fine addition.

CONs: Michigan and OSU are already raiding the hell out of the WPIAL. Adding Pitt opens no new recruiting grounds and only marginally raises interest in the Pittsburgh market. Their football fanbase would be amongst the worst in the conference.

Verdict: I guess. I would rather take a chance on Rutgers, personally.

UConn

PROs: Killer basketball program. Would expand the Big Ten into some new England media markets.

CONs: Football program remains fledgling. About as much of a geographic fit as Nebraska.

Verdict: Meh. They're like Louisville except their football team hasn't proven anything yet.

West Fuckin' Virginia

PROs: Darling of the moment with Rich Rodriguez staying, and if he turns down 'Bama's millions he's probably in for the long haul. Will have a good, if sleazy, basketball team with Huggins around.

CONs: Isn't WVU a really crap school? Huggins should be a net negative. Football program has strong flash-in-the-pan characteristics.

Verdict: Academics are a dealbreaker, I think.

The Big Twelve
Missouri

PROs: Geographic fit with decent academics. Natural basketball rivalry with Illinois. Opens up Missouri, St. Louis.

CONs: Hasn't won anything in football since 1969. That won't change in the Big Ten. Basketball program mostly known for having gel-slicked cheater Quinn Snyder in charge for way too long.

Verdict: Meh.

Iowa State

PROs: It's in Iowa.

CONs: Inept at every sport it ever tried. Brings in no new markets. No upside here.

Verdict: No way.

Nebraska

PROs: Rich football tradition. Would be competitive and bring cachet. Nebraska fans travel like mofos and would probably be fun to have around.

CONs: No other sports of note. Geographically distant. Nebraska is not a rich area to pluck recruits from. They would remind us of [BOWL REDACTED] and force us to strangle them and then we would be in jail.

Verdict: Nebraska fans occasionally bring this up as a possible escape hatch from the Big Twelve and their unbalanced TV contracts. An interesting possibility, but the geography is a negative and they don't bring anything except football. Tempting, but no.

Texas

PROs: Outstanding academics, outstanding football, outstanding basketball, outstanding fans. Austin is a great city. Brings in huge television and recruiting benefits.

CONs: Is in freaking Texas.

Verdict: Except for the bizarre geography, a perfect fit. Would be an earth-shattering move tectonic in scope. Would be better than Notre Dame.

But... really doubtful Texas would ever go for this. Would restrict their ability to schedule anyone ever again, as I assume OU would stay on the schedule plus probably A&M, then they'd just have to rotate two Texas schools for the rest of time. Non-revenue sports would all of a sudden have killer travel costs... and what do they do with their baseball and softball teams, both of which they like quite a bit? Playing in a virtual mid major is going to be a harsh blow.

Sadly, this is never going to happen.

Other
Notre Dame

PROs: Geography, academics, football. It keeps coming up because it's an obvious fit. Rivalries with MSU, Purdue, Michigan. No new markets, but they are kind of a big deal in college football.

CONs: Midwest would be full of suicide bombers from NDNation.

Verdict: One of us... one of us... one of us...




Miami, Ohio
PROs: Fine academic school with the appropriate geography. One of the more successful MAC programs historically. As the "Cradle of Coaches" has long-standing ties with the conference.

CONs: Is a MAC school, brings no new markets, and probably wouldn't be that competitive. Like Northwestern++.

Verdict: No.

Kentucky

PROs: Like Louisville except with a killer basketball program and a dire football one (this year's pending aberration excepted). And they're a better school.

CONs: As noted, dire football program.

Verdict: As a charter member of the SEC they wouldn't go for it, I don't think. And though the basketball program is interesting, football runs the world.

Boston College

PROs: Perennially decent at both basketball and football. Hockey team a national power (not that we'll all of a sudden have a Big Ten hockey conference, but we'd probably set something up regular-like w/ them). Academically a fit. Provides access to Boston media market and, by, extension, much of New England. Weird fit geographically but less weird than their current conference.

CONs: Geography. Check any Bill Simmons column for the general interest in collegiate sports in the Boston area.

Verdict: A strong candidate behind the home runs.


One Man's Order of Preference
1. Texas
2. Notre Dame
3. Louisville
4. Rutgers
5. Boston College
6. Nebraska
7. Missouri
8. Pitt

...the rest I don't care for.

One Man's Order of Likelihood
This is hard to project. I assume this is what will happen: the Big Ten tells everyone plans are afoot, gets the BTN up and running. Once we know how that's going, the Big Ten waits until ND's NBC contract expires and tries to get the Irish again. Once that doesn't work, it settles down to business. So... we have three years to see if Rutgers is going to hold it together and if UConn is going to step up. If Rutgers remains good and interest holds up...

1. Rutgers
2. Pitt
3. Missouri
4. Boston College
5. UConn

[Danimal]

Neb is not good at men's basketball but we are good at plenty of other sports. Plus Nebraskans support college-sports, we packed the joint for the volleyball championship, College World Series, and Creighton basketball. The problem is that Nebraska just doesn't have many folks. So the 11 would be entering few new homes and adding little new recruiting-territory.

I think the writer is a bit one-sided in his approach. Why assume Louisville, Rutgers, or WV would even take an offer in a couple years? Louisville and WV are already top10 programs and Rutgers is improving. Do you mess with that, leave the Big East, and scrap with a couple of the biggest traditional powers in the nation in Mich and tOSU? As long as the East is cranking-out ranked teams their BCS-status is going nowhere and their big-dogs are in a nice place to make an undefeated run from.

[Terry in Crapchester]

I saw the blog BlindRef posted. It had been linked at NDNation, perhaps because of the reference to that site. A coupla random points:

1. Texas is pure fantasy, and I think the writer admitted as much himself. Joining the Big Ten would be logistically impossible for Texas in several regards.

2. The writer doesn't have much insight into the NYC sports market. NYC is primarily a pro sports market, but to the extent that it has a college football following, ND is the best school to tap into that fanbase. There is a relatively heavy concentration of both ND alumni and subway alumni in the NYC area. By contrast, Syracuse's football following in the NYC area is minimal (I say minimal rather than non-existant, only because the national sports media has a disproportionate number of Syracuse alums among their ranks, some of whom haven't been shy about homering for their school). Rutgers might approach ND's NYC following -- if they continue their current trend toward improvement over the next decade or so, that is -- but that's about it. Perhaps it was pride that kept the writer from admitting this about ND.

3. I'm with Danimal. I don't think the upper-tier Big East schools bite on any offer from the Big Ten.

4. Syracuse is not in position to contend for a Big East football title in the near future, but I don't think they'll go either, when push comes to shove. The exit fee is a factor. Also, if Syracuse goes, they'll probably find themselves in a divisional alignmnent with Minnesota and Wisconsin, while playing in the opposite division from Penn State and Ohio State. I think BC is experiencing buyer's remorse over its decision to join the ACC, and I think Syracuse would think long and hard about BC if it were offered by the Big Ten.

5. Back to ND. The fact that ND's basketball team hasn't returned to the level of success it experienced in the late 70's remains a sore point for me. But I don't see anything the Big Ten can offer us in that regard that the Big East cannot.

6. Nebraska is intriguing. They lost their most significant rival, at least on an annual basis, as a result of the Big XII. They would form a natural rivalry with Iowa, and they're enough of a traditional football power to allow the Big Ten to go with a more geographically sensible alignment that places Michigan and tOSU in the same division. But as Danimal said, there aren't a lot of people in the state. I'm also not sure that Nebraska would meet the Big Ten's academic standards.

7. Again back to ND. Some bloggers have mentioned that ND is the Big Ten's only option, and have suggested that the Big Ten boycott ND if ND refuses to join the Big Ten. With Michigan and ND signing a long-term deal, however, the option appears dead. Even if that weren't the case, I don't think Michigan State and Purdue would have gone along with such a boycott, at least not willingly.

8. I think the Big Ten might either have to give on something or not expand. ND is not interested, I don't think any of the Big East schools bite when push comes to shove, and Texas is not a practical option. I think the most practical option for the Big Ten when it comes to expansion is either Missouri, BC or Miami of Ohio, possibly Nebraska. I realize none of these is the Big Ten's ideal choice.

9. I'm not a Big Ten fan, but if I were, my wishlist for expansion, in order, would be:

Notre Dame
Pitt
Rutgers
Nebraska
Missouri
Syracuse
BC
UConn

If expansion does occur, I think the most realistic possibilities, in order, are:

BC
Missouri
Nebraska
Miami of Ohio (not likely to be offered, otherwise they'd rank higher)