Your proverbial lock of the week...

At Large · Post by **At Large** » Tue Oct 16, 2007 3:33 am

NU is a 2.5 favorite this weekend over A&M, which is living proof that you shouldn't smoke crack while making betting lines. Bet the farm on the team that is NOT giving up over 450 yards a game in total offense and isn't ranked 104th in total defense and 96th in rushing defense. That would be A&M if you weren't sure.

At Large · Post by **At Large** » Tue Oct 16, 2007 3:36 am

Check that. The radio guys today said that the line opened with NU as a 2.5 favorite. I've just checked and it's -2. Still, that's a pretty generous gift. No way in hell......... barring Callahan and Cosgrove getting fired this week that Nebraska wins this game. If they couldn't get up for a 1997 championship team reunion prior to the OSU game, then nothing will...

Danimal · Post by **Danimal** » Tue Oct 16, 2007 4:42 am

I think this is a very winnable game if we play like we are capable of. But this team should've been fired-up and ready for redemption last week when they totally buckled against OSU. The thing I wonder is how will they get ready this week when they couldn't remotely do it last week? Somehow after last week I have a hard time seeing this team going balls-out to save this staff. It could happen but I doubt it. My money would be on ATM.

Adelpiero · Post by **Adelpiero** » Tue Oct 16, 2007 10:10 am

If this game was in college station, i'd agree. In Lincoln, i'd give the points. I wouldnt touch the game, but aTm is not a good team. All of those lucky breaks they got last year are over, the smoke and mirrors are off, this is the true dennis fran coached team.

i wouldnt doubt if NU took them to the woodshed. I know they will get that asskicking next weekend!

indyfrisco · Post by **indyfrisco** » Tue Oct 16, 2007 1:08 pm

Adelpiero wrote:I wouldnt touch the game, but aTm is not a good team. All of those lucky breaks they got last year are over, the smoke and mirrors are off, this is the true dennis fran coached team.

While I agree we're not good this year, where do you get off saying all those lucky breaks form last year? Just because we beat misery? We lost 3 conference games by a total of 6 points. tceh beat us with a hail mary to end the game. Nebraska blocked a field goal to win it. OU had a last second drive to win it. I'd say last year the breaks, if anything, went against us.

Dinsdale · Post by **Dinsdale** » Tue Oct 16, 2007 4:10 pm

Adelpiero wrote:If this game was in college station, i'd agree. In Lincoln, i'd give the points. I wouldnt touch the game

From a strictly gambling-wise standpoint, not touching it is the correct move. While Ass To Mouth looks like a no-brainer, betting against home dogs is rarely a wise mone, although if memory serves correctly, homedoggers getting less than 3 don't cover at the same gaudy clip that they do when the spread is more than 3.

Although ATM does look like an attractive pick.

M Club · Post by **M Club** » Tue Oct 16, 2007 5:25 pm

oregon -1.5 is much more attractive, though i suppose you have to find nine other games. gig 'em.

Adelpiero · Post by **Adelpiero** » Tue Oct 16, 2007 6:24 pm

IndyFrisco wrote:
Adelpiero wrote:I wouldnt touch the game, but aTm is not a good team. All of those lucky breaks they got last year are over, the smoke and mirrors are off, this is the true dennis fran coached team.
While I agree we're not good this year, where do you get off saying all those lucky breaks form last year? Just because we beat misery? We lost 3 conference games by a total of 6 points. tceh beat us with a hail mary to end the game. Nebraska blocked a field goal to win it. OU had a last second drive to win it. I'd say last year the breaks, if anything, went against us.

they also won 3-4 games in the last minute or overtime.

got lucky vs Army
Got lucky vs Kansas
got lucky at OSU
got lucky vs Baylor

Look at those teams and games, you were lucky to have the record they did. Reality came in the bowl game, they were exposed as 10win frauds by Cal

King Crimson · Post by **King Crimson** » Tue Oct 16, 2007 7:59 pm

ATM's kicker is 6-13 "outside 30 yards" this season. i'd keep that in mind before i got too hot to bet anything in this game.

ATM also lit up Texas Tech's D for 7 points. NU is coming off two meaningless TD's in the second half against the Pokes, and zero TD's against Mizzou.

there is no way to know who will/won't show up in this one.

i've never heard that phrase "outside the 30" used as a meaningful stat before....outside the 40, 50...yeah. kid is scuffling.

indyfrisco · Post by **indyfrisco** » Tue Oct 16, 2007 8:49 pm

KC,

A&M is exceptionally bad on the road. I picked A&M in the pick'em as a homer pick, but I expect to get thrashed in this game. A&M cannot defend the spread, even if it is badly executed as Neb. has been prone to do this year.

indyfrisco · Post by **indyfrisco** » Tue Oct 16, 2007 8:58 pm

Adel,

OSU won a national championship in a season where 75% of their games came down to the wire. No one ever claimed A&M was "the best ever" last year, at least not on this board. A win isn't "lucky" just because it was a close game.

Baylor...won by 10. Lucky?
@ Kansas...road game and came from behind by 11 in the 4th. No one's ever done that!
@ OSU...OT Scored on our posession and blocked their XP. Why is that lucky?
Army...agree. Lucky. Defense finally stepped up and made a goal line stand at end of game.

I just find it humorous that when the ball bounced the other way, you claim it should have. When it bounced our way, it was luck.

Danimal · Post by **Danimal** » Tue Oct 16, 2007 10:09 pm

I think we definitely can win this one in Lincoln. Freaking Tech managed to shut-down ATM's one-dimensional O. But we haven't played a good game in the last month. We should've lost to Ball and ISU went toe-to-toe with us. In a close game I do like us. We have solid kicking this year and more passing ability. If we keep it close we can win. The question is which team with their back to the wall brings the fire? I hope it is NU but if I had to guess I'd say ATM.

campinfool · Post by **campinfool** » Wed Oct 17, 2007 1:21 am

It's gonna be a toss-up. A&M is one dimensional, but NEB is not exactly lights out against the run. I figure hime field should be enough to get the W for NEB. The craziest thing about this game is I don't belive it is even on television. Pretty bizarre for two teams that usually get air time. Maybe the way things are going this year the media should build it up as the Coach Buy-Out Bowl.