Shoalzie wrote:Since this is a BCS discussion thread...
Is this what we're looking at for the 10-team field?
Big Ten winner: Ohio State (season over)
Big East winner: West Virginia (one game left, conference clinched, must win Saturday to make the title game)
Pac-10 winner: USC/Arizona State (both play Saturday, USC beats UCLA and they're in, Arizona State only gets in if they win and USC loses)
Big XII winner: Missouri/Oklahoma (title game Saturday, winner is in, loser may get at-large bid)
SEC winner: LSU/Tennessee (title game Saturday, winner is in, loser may get at-large bid)
ACC winner: Virginia Tech/Boston College (title game Saturday, winner is in)
At-Large #1: Georgia (season over, the best team not listed above)
At-Large #2: Kansas (season over, only one loss, likely to stay in the top 12)
At-Large #3: Hawaii (if they beat Washington, they're in because of the top 12 exemption)
At-Large #4: the best conference runner-up
Coupla points here:
1. I don't think the loser of the Meatgrinder championship game gets an at-large bid. If Tennessee loses, they're all but a mortal lock to drop out of the Top 14, and that would make them ineligible for an at-large bid. LSU would have 3 losses with a loss next week. I think Georgia gets an at-large bid out of the Meatgrinder, which would eliminate the LSU-Tennessee loser in any event.
2. I don't see the loser of the Big XII championship game getting an at-large bid either. The loser is likely to fall behind Kansas, who is in the best shape for an at-large bid. I'm almost positive that Oklahoma, with 3 losses, won't get an at-large bid. Missouri possibly could stay ahead of Kansas with a narrow loss vs. Oklahoma.
3. If both USC and Arizona State win, I think Arizona State is in as an at-large. They'd be a home team of sorts in the Fiesta Bowl.
4. Illinois is a possibility for an at-large bid, but needs some help. They need to move up one spot in the BCS rankings to be eligible for an at-large bid; that will happen if either Tennessee or BC loses. If in the Top 14, I think they get into the BCS if either: (a) tOSU makes the BCS championship game (in which case I think the Rose would be interested in the Illini); or (b) Hawaii loses to Washington.
5. There's a possibility that an ACC team (Virginia Tech if they lose, Clemson if Va Tech wins) will be eligible for an at-large bid, but I don't see this team getting a BCS at-large bid under any circumstance short of the BCS being required to take them under the rule prohibiting any conference from getting more than one at-large bid per conference. Slight possibility that Va Tech, with a loss, a Hawaii loss and a Tennessee win, makes the Sugar Bowl over Illinois.