Syracuse "bubble" watch update

[King Crimson]

after today's "statement game/signature win" over Marquette the Cuse's record in the allegedly very important record vs. RPI top 50 skyrocketed to 2-7. also, as we all know, much purported to be an important statistical measure weighted heavily by "the committee" is last 10 games. Cuse is a dead solid lock there at 5-5. a team that's hot just at the right time!

SOS you say? oh yeah, Cuse at 8 (and they play in the Big East!).....wella, they also have 2 losses to rpi 100-200 teams. Texas Tech, a team with no shot of dancing, has a SOS of 3 and 4 wins against RPI top 50 (out of 13 total games against RPI top 50's). and amazingly, i'm not going to spend a lot of time figuring out how SOS works.....but on rough guestimate the Cuse's total of 8 games against rpi top 50 teams (a SOS based measure) is *average at best* based on the teams ranked immediately above and below them. in fact, i count 11 of 20 teams from rpi 52-30ish with more games against rpi top 50 teams....and needless to say, a better record in them. of the 9 with less, many are the VCU's and Davidson's of the world. so, if you are in a "power conference" about 8 games against RPI top 50 is nothing special. Like i say, Taco Tech has 13 playing in a non meat grinder power conference. how can it be?

the Orange DON'T have an abnormal number of games against top RPI teams. far from it.

http://kenpom.com/rpi.php" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Terry in Crapchester]

I know that what the Selection Committee does is not a straight numbers crunch, but I should point out that with the link you used, the theoretical RPI "cut off point" for selection is 48, for the moment. In other words, 17 of the 31 automatic bids will go to teams with RPI's below 48, so 48 should be the lowest point at which a team would qualify for the dance if it were a straight RPI numbers crunch. That assumes no further upsets in conference tournament play, and in that regard, C-USA, the MAC, the A10 and the MWC have little margin for error.

Fwiw, Syracuse falls on the right side of that divide. Also fwiw, I've heard a lot of talk about Maryland, Virginia Tech or both getting in, even though both of those teams have worse records and weaker RPI's and SOS's than Syracuse, and play in a weaker conference (this year, anyway) than Syracuse. Of course, SU still needs to get by Villanova in the first round of the Big East tournament, or any tournament selection talk involving Syracuse becomes moot.

But if you ask me for a prediction, this looks like a seven-bid season for the Big East, with both Syracuse and Villanova on the outside looking in regardless of the outcome of that game.

[King Crimson]

at the time i posted that Syracuse's rpi was 52. which is why the "guesstimate" i made was looking at teams "52-30ish".

the site updates pretty often. though Nova is putting it on the Orange in the 2nd half, so the point appears to be moot.

[MuchoBulls]

Nice to see spin doctor Seth Greenberg at work here:

Don't count out Va Tech yet

posted: Tuesday, March 11, 2008 | Print Entry

Quick hitters for Tuesday:

• If you want to tweak Virginia Tech's Seth Greenberg, tell him that the Hokies are out of the NCAA field even before the ACC tournament starts.

Greenberg said Monday night that the Hokies (18-12, 9-7 ACC) still have a shot to win games in the ACC, so to say they're done is ridiculous. He also doesn't like it when a loss at Penn State is used against him since "Michigan State and Indiana lost there too." He also said playing and beating George Washington and Hofstra, two teams which had been good in the past few seasons, shouldn't be thrown back at him, either.

"If we beat Miami [which has to beat NC State in the ACC first round], then we should be in," Greenberg said. "We were fourth in the ACC. We lost to Duke without Jeff Allen [the third-leading scorer]. We have started four freshmen."

Greenberg's point is that this team has been young but has developed. But the argument against the Hokies is that they didn't beat any of the teams in front of them in the ACC -- North Carolina, Duke and Clemson. They only played each one just once.

"It's all speculation," Greenberg said. "That's all it is, is speculation."

Outside of their 2 wins over Maryland they have beaten no one. I like how he tries to spin the loss at Penn State. SOmething tells me IU and Michigan State actually beat some quality opponents this year. The also lost to Miami at home and Miami has a much better resume than VT does.

Give it a rest asshole.

[Goober McTuber]

Syracuse loses to Villanova 82-63. Hello, NIT.

[Adelpiero]

u think thats bad, Rivals is full of idiots


they think aTm and OU are locks. and KST and Baylor get in!


are you fucking kidding me? unless 1 of them makes a big12 final run, they deserve to be in NIT. I hope OSU or ISU make a run, so it fucks one of them out, no need for them to look foolish by midmajors in tourney!


rivals is suck a shill to the Big programs. drake a 5-6 seed??????? they would smoke either of them 4 big12 teams.

[OUMO]

OU probably is a lock, they have a RPI of 25 and had injuries during the season, Longer and Griffin and lost some of those games.

A&Ms RPI is around 43 I think, they have one less win so unless something happens in the tourney at this point I think OU gets in over A&M.

I like how the commitee says they don't pay attention to the amount of teams they put in from one conference.

Who knows though, there are always some teams that puzzle me. At least gives us something to discuss.

[indyfrisco]

they think aTm and OU are locks. and KST and Baylor get in!


are you fucking kidding me? unless 1 of them makes a big12 final run, they deserve to be in NIT. I hope OSU or ISU make a run, so it fucks one of them out, no need for them to look foolish by midmajors in tourney!

Speaking for A&M, I think a one-and-done in the XII tourney shold result in an NIT bid. Regardless, I'd like to hear your thoughts on who should replace the 3-4 teams in the XII and probably every other conference you disagree with. There has to be 64+1 in the tourney. I know you are not trying to be a homer but there's gotta be more from the bigger conferences than the nameless conferences.

[indyfrisco]

I think as long as every team in the MVC makes it to the tourney, Adel would be fine with whoever else filled the rest of the spots.

[Adelpiero]

I think as long as every team in the MVC makes it to the tourney, Adel would be fine with whoever else filled the rest of the spots.

they should get 2

Drake MVC tourney winner

Illinois st



thats it.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

Cuse: OUT
S. Alabama: IN

There you go, KC.