first round upsets

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Mon Mar 17, 2008 1:54 am

For the life of me, I can't find any major ones.

So far I like:

11 St Joe's over 6 OU
12 Villanova over 5 Clemson
11 KState over 6 USC
10 Davidson over 7 Gonzaga
10 St. Mary's over 7 Miami

That's about it.

TheJON · Post by **TheJON** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 3:10 am

I agree with all of those except the USC-Kansas State one. I think USC puts a whoopin' on K-State. K-State is not good away from home and they'll probably throw Taj Gibson on Beasley. He can't shut him down but I bet he can at least contain him somewhat. The rest of that team is completely inept and does not know what to do when they actually have to make a contribution to the team, except on occasion Bill Walker. They're poorly coached and USC is not. Tim Floyd's teams traditionally will eat alive a team like K-State because they play defense and are better coached. I like USC to cruise in this one.

Another upset I have is Western Kentucky over Drake. That is a very good game. In fact, I think it's one of the top 2-3 1st round matchups. I'm hopeful Drake can get this win, but I think Western Kentucky will be more difficult than they think. Even if they beat WKU, UCONN is gonna win by double digits. That is just a terrible matchup. The one 4 seed I think Drake stands no chance in hell of beating is UCONN because of the matchup. All of the other 4 seeds are beatable by Drake. But my prediction is a close, hard fought 1st round loss to Western Kentucky.

King Crimson · Post by **King Crimson** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 3:51 am

Oklahoma is very beatable. this team, and almost nearly every player on it, is a day to day mystery.

when i was a sous-chef at a semi-upscale Italian place in Boulder about a decade ago i cooked for Martelli and the St. Joe's team when they were in town to play Colorado. Phil Jackson and Steve Spurrier are also on the "coaches i've cooked for" list. Spurrier's wife got an "overcooked" piece of tuna.

i like Martelli, if only for sticking it to Packer when he had Delonte West and Jameer Nelson. but, moreso, because he took his team to a pricey italian joint in Boulder, Colorado.

TheJON · Post by **TheJON** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 5:21 am

Crimson,

I'd trade you situations with your players being a mystery every day. The current players on Iowa's roster are never a mystery. They always suck. I'd take a bunch of sometimes on, sometimes off players over a team full of ALWAYS off players!!

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Mon Mar 17, 2008 11:57 am

I agree USC is the better all-around team. I have a feeling Beasley is gonna really put on a one man show and will KState to a win. It's probably the pick I'm least confident in though.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Mon Mar 17, 2008 12:22 pm

Slightly off topic, but what is it every year with the ESPN hacks picking all four #1 seeds for the Final 4? Fucking LAME. Has it ever even happened?

Degenerate · Post by **Degenerate** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 2:09 pm

St. Mary's should handle Miami, even though the talking heads would call that an upset.

I'll say Temple over Michigan State and Winthrop over Washington State.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Mon Mar 17, 2008 2:11 pm

If I wasn't homering for MSU, I'd pick Temple, as well. If Neitzel decides to perform his little disappearing act for that game, Temple will cruise to victory.

Goober McTuber · Post by **Goober McTuber** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 2:58 pm

My first round upsets:

13 Winthrop over 4 WSU
11 St. Joseph’s over 6 OU
12 Villanova over 5 Clemson
10 Davidson over 7 Gonzaga
11 Kentucky over 6 Marquette
10 St. Mary’s over 7 Miami
10 Arizona over 7 WVU

I may have one too many 10 over 7 picks, so I’d appreciate advice on which one to shitcan. BTW, last year no 10 seeds won.

War Wagon · Post by **War Wagon** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 4:15 pm

Goober McTuber wrote:12 Villanova over 5 Clemson

After watching Clemson give UNC all they wanted yesterday, I really don't see this one happening.

Then again, I really don't know jack about Villanova. What's the scoop on why you and Mgo like this one? Just a hunch?

All the others, I can certainly see.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Mon Mar 17, 2008 4:48 pm

Then again, I really don't know jack about Villanova.

Pretty much the reverse for me. I've seen Villanova play some this year, and haven't seen Clemson play a lick. 'Nova has good guard play, which I value come tourney time. I also really like Jay Wright's ability to get his team prepared for a tournament game, and Clemson's tourney history is suspect at best.

That's about 10% of it. The other 90% is a hunch.

Dinsdale · Post by **Dinsdale** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 5:10 pm

First round upset?

History will be made.

Kansas is going down like Brandon Rush's pants at the YMCA.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Mon Mar 17, 2008 5:20 pm

So Dins - whose cock did you have to suck to get your Ducks into the dance?

RevLimiter · Post by **RevLimiter** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 5:32 pm

Dinsdale wrote:First round upset?

History will be made.

Kansas is going down like Brandon Rush's pants at the YMCA.

I laughed.

Dinsdale · Post by **Dinsdale** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 5:39 pm

MgoBlue-LightSpecial wrote:So Dins - whose cock did you have to suck to get your Ducks into the dance?

Quite the opposite...

Let's face reality, folks...

The Dance is about money.

And guess what? Oregon has it, and it follows them wherever they go.

It was more a case of the NCAA sucking Knight's dick than the other way around.

And the PAC was the Meatgrinder of hoops. The #9 also-ran had a winning record. 8 and 9 weren't that bad of teams. Of course the Sheepfuckers set a new record for PAC futility, and ran the table backwards (never been done in the PAC10 before, which is saying a lot in a conference where USC plays).

Dinsdale · Post by **Dinsdale** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 5:48 pm

RevLimiter wrote:
Dinsdale wrote:First round upset?

History will be made.

Kansas is going down like Brandon Rush's pants at the YMCA.
I laughed.

You were supposed to.

But if KU looks past PSU (although I think their coaching is much too good for that to happen), it would be a BIG mistake. For a ~~shit conference~~ midmajor team, the Vikes were playing some damn impressive hoops. Jerimiah Dominguez is as annoying a midget-guard as they come, and Deonte Huff is nasty in the open court. They certainly can't compete in the halfcourt with Kansas, but if they can force some turnovers and get into a little bit of an up-and-down game, it might not be the run-of-the-mill 1 vs 16 yawner. They have the weapons to make KU sweat a little bit, for sure.

Unfortunately for PSU, coach Ken Bone has done too good a job there in his 3(?) years, and the Big Boys are going to be knocking on his door with a better offer than PSU could ever hope to match soon. Kind of the dilemma for midmajors. Good coaches are destined to leave.

TheJON · Post by **TheJON** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 6:49 pm

Oregon didn't get in because of money I'll assure you of that. In fact, if it really was about money they would have sent Oregon to the NIT now that the NIT is run by the NCAA. You could have nothing but mid-majors in the Big Dance and the NCAA is going to make boat loads of cash off of it and tickets will sell.

But now that the NIT is run by the NCAA they're more likely to put a cash cow that's on the bubble in the NIT because it makes more sense. That's the only way the NIT can sell is by having strong fan bases in the tournament.

What it really comes down to is what schools AD's are on the committee and what school's AD's that are not on the committee are doing favors for the AD's that are on the committee.

Take 3 years ago for example.

Then Iowa AD Bob Bowlsby (former UNI AD and UNI Grad) was the chairman of the committee. Iowa gets in and it was debatable if the Hawks actually deserved the bid. It really was 50/50. But what was not debatable was UNI getting in. They had no argument to get in.....but they did. And UNI certainly is no cash cow. They have a small fan base and reside in Cedar Falls, Iowa. I'm pretty sure that had nothing to do with the NCAA following the money and more to do with Bowlsby being a UNI alum/former AD and good friends with then UNI AD Rick Hartzell. The fact that Iowa and UNI both got in was laughable.

Besides, a few weeks before the NCAA Tournament that year Bowlsby had been calling out Iowa fans for ripping on Alford. He called us a bunch of "rank amateurs". He stood behind his hire too long and because of it he has ruined the Iowa basketball program. But by putting the Hawkeyes in the tournament it was his way of sticking it to our fan base that clearly knew more than that fucking piece of shit (pardon my French)!

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Mon Mar 17, 2008 7:02 pm

Good points, JON. The committee's hard-on for "mid majors" isn't really consistent with "following the money."

King Crimson · Post by **King Crimson** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 9:16 pm

MgoBlue-LightSpecial wrote:Good points, JON. The committee's hard-on for "mid majors" isn't really consistent with "following the money."

maybe not, but it's how they market the tournament ("cinderella") and get NFL knuckleheads who haven't watched a CBB game all year to fill out a bracket and buy some budweiser and pick the obligatory upsets. in the long run, colonizing the chick and NFL hamhead demographics is the $$$. turn the non-fan into the casual fan, sell them as a group to advertisers.

"March Madness" is an advertising event, just like St. Patrick's Day or Cinco de Mayo or the Super Bowl.

there's no *real* money to be made outside the local delivery pizza joint and maybe a couple sixers of beer for hoops jamrods who skip work and watch the afternoon Thursday-Friday games religiously....like they have for 20 years. it's the other people advertisers want.

War Wagon · Post by **War Wagon** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 9:50 pm

King Crimson wrote: ...get NFL knuckleheads who haven't watched a CBB game all year to fill out a bracket and buy some budweiser...

<----- In!

Dinsdale · Post by **Dinsdale** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 10:28 pm

War Wagon wrote:
<----- In!

You seem to know an awful lot about Michael Beasley and KU hoops for a guy who hasn't watched a game all season. Methinks you're playing us.

War Wagon · Post by **War Wagon** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 11:31 pm

Dins, I was referring more to the "NFL knucklehead" and "budweiser" points in KC's post.

But it's also true that watching my beloved Mizzou Tigers bludgeon Naismiths game beyond all recognition has left a really bad taste lingering towards CBB. I haven't paid near as much attention as I have in the last 28 years.

That said, filling out a bracket and entering about six different pools is sorta' ingrained, though I don't run one myself at work anymore like I used to.

Never thought I'd live to see the day when MU became more respected for it's football program than B-ball, but that day has surely arrived. I still curse the pencil pushing admins who forced Norm Stewart out before he was ready to go.

Adelpiero · Post by **Adelpiero** » Tue Mar 18, 2008 12:10 am

Ok, my upsets

st.Joes over OU

nova over clemson

davidson over gonzaga

arizona over WVU

2nd round upsets

Butler over Tenn

Mississippi st over Memphis

Adelpiero · Post by **Adelpiero** » Tue Mar 18, 2008 12:13 am

less upsets, because pussies from Major conferences got their Mid major vs Mid major games.

horrible job by tourney committee this year. There are more average Majors in the tourney than ever has been allowed. almost sickening who they picked to be in!

TheJON · Post by **TheJON** » Tue Mar 18, 2008 1:16 am

Mgo,

I was watching ESPN earlier today and thought the same thing.

If you add up the seeds between Homer, Homer, Homer, and Homer (Digger, Dick, Hubert, Bilas) you come up with 19 for their Final Four picks. 2 of them had nothing but #1 seeds, all 4 of them had at least 2 and none of them had anyone lower than a 2 seed. Very lame. Way to go out on a limb there ESPN.

But that pails in comparison to the retarded prediction of Pittsburgh winning it all that Knight had. That's just fucking dumb. Not only are they not talented enough but Pitt never goes anywhere in the tournament. They win 25 games every year and then lose in the 2nd round.

My final 4 is Tennessee, Memphis, Kansas, and UCONN. With Memphis beating Kansas to win the title. That's a 4, a 2, and 2 1's. Not exactly a lot of major upsets with those picks, but still not as lame as ESPN.

War Wagon · Post by **War Wagon** » Tue Mar 18, 2008 2:45 am

You're high, Jon.

Anyone with a lick of sense knows the final is going to be Kansas vs. N. Carolina.

Psycho T out front should tell ya'.

UNC 87
KU 84

Dinsdale · Post by **Dinsdale** » Tue Mar 18, 2008 3:18 am

War Wagon wrote:Psycho T

I ain't counting that guy out of any game.

Love the way he plays the game.

Have I ever mentioned that NC is my east-of-the-Mississip rooting interest. Certainly not diehard about it, but there's an awful lot of ACC games on the tube during the day saturday, and early on weeknights, so I have to favor someone over there. And any team that Dean Freaking Smith coached is OK by me.

Oregon is going to smoke them, though.

Goober McTuber · Post by **Goober McTuber** » Tue Mar 18, 2008 3:51 am

War Wagon wrote:You're high, Jon.

Anyone with a lick of sense knows the final is going to be Kansas vs. N. Carolina.

Psycho T out front should tell ya'.

UNC 87
KU 84

Wow. My bracket has them meeting in the semis. Go figure.

King Crimson · Post by **King Crimson** » Tue Mar 18, 2008 4:23 am

Dinsdale wrote: Certainly not diehard about it, but there's an awful lot of ACC games on the tube during the day saturday, and early on weeknights, so I have to favor someone over there

that good for you. in the Denver market we get the SEC and Big 10 on the networks, for some reason. Kentucky is ALWAYS on. when i was in grad school and broke (no cable TV), i musta watched every game Tayshaun Prince and Keith Bogans ever played at Rupp Arena. i feel like i know those guys personally.

TheJON · Post by **TheJON** » Tue Mar 18, 2008 4:29 am

Indiana is going to pull the upset on Carolina in the 2nd round. I just have a hunch about the Hoosiers. I'm not sure why, but I think they'll nut up and really be focused for the tournament and give their best game of the year and shock the world. Okay, not really shock the world, but pull off a big upset.

I have Tennessee going to the Final 4 in that bracket. Roy Williams is the most overrated coach in the history of college basketball and he doesn't win jack shit in the NCAA Tournament UNLESS his squad is insanely more talented than its opponent. Every time he faces a team with comparable talent or at least close to it.......he loses. He's a fraud.

Indiana may not be the greatest team in the nation, but I tell you what.......they've got a heck of a lot of talent. Maybe not UNC talent, but I do not think the talent disparity is as much as people think. Eric Gordon and DJ White are as good as ANYONE on UNC and that includes Hansborough. Plus, Crawford, Ellis, Stemler, and Bassett are quality players as well. I'm not saying IU has more talent or even as much talent as UNC but they aren't that far off. And we all know Roy Williams couldn't coach his way out of a paper box. His coaching strategy is "I've got 5 guys better than any 1 player on your team, now let's see you try and stop them". But when he goes up against a team that has a couple guys as good or better than anyone on his team he is royally fucked.

If he happens to make it to the Final 4 or Championship game he has no chance of winning because teams like Memphis, UCLA, and Kansas all have comparable (if not better) talent and there is absolutely no way in mother fucking hell Roy is going to come up with a gameplan to beat an equally/more talented team in the NCAA Tournament. It's never happened before in his 20 some odd years of coaching and it certainly won't happen this year.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Tue Mar 18, 2008 11:43 am

Goober McTuber wrote:
War Wagon wrote:You're high, Jon.

Anyone with a lick of sense knows the final is going to be Kansas vs. N. Carolina.

Psycho T out front should tell ya'.

UNC 87
KU 84
Wow. My bracket has them meeting in the semis. Go figure.

Knock it off. If you had a lick of sense, you'd know the tournament doesn't run past the semifinal between the East/Midwest regions this year.

ucantdoitdoggieSTyle2 · Tue Mar 18, 2008 12:19 pm

All you dorks picking Davidson as an "upset" better check yourselves…they are FAVORED to win the game.

As far as my upsets go, I'll take K State over USC and I really like Cornell to cover, so.. fuck it, I am calling for an outright W from them over Stanford. Notice a pattern? Me too… outside of UCLA, the PAC 10 is a shit conference. Much like everyone else, I loves me some St Joe's too. I really thought they'd be favored over Okla...

Mook · Post by **Mook** » Tue Mar 18, 2008 1:19 pm

TheJON wrote: And we all know Roy Williams couldn't coach his way out of a paper box. His coaching strategy is "I've got 5 guys better than any 1 player on your team, now let's see you try and stop them". But when he goes up against a team that has a couple guys as good or better than anyone on his team he is royally fucked.

If he happens to make it to the Final 4 or Championship game he has no chance of winning because teams like Memphis, UCLA, and Kansas all have comparable (if not better) talent and there is absolutely no way in mother fucking hell Roy is going to come up with a gameplan to beat an equally/more talented team in the NCAA Tournament. It's never happened before in his 20 some odd years of coaching and it certainly won't happen this year.

I'm not the biggest Roy fan........but the guy has won 80% of his games, been to half dozen or so Final Fours, 3 Championship games and won a title..........I'm pretty sure he can coach just a little bit........How many Final Fours and Titles does Bill Self have? Calipari? Howland?.....

All that said I do think Roy has trouble making in game adjustments, but his win percentage sort of speaks for itself.

Personally though, I don't think UNC will win the title this year. They simply refuse to play defense......and that is a recipe for disaster in this tournament. It will be their downfall. They give up way too many easy baskets and open shots.

indyfrisco · Post by **indyfrisco** » Tue Mar 18, 2008 1:33 pm

ucantdoitdoggieSTyle2 wrote:All you dorks picking Davidson as an "upset" better check yourselves…they are FAVORED to win the game.

As far as my upsets go, I'll take K State over USC and I really like Cornell to cover, so.. fuck it, I am calling for an outright W from them over Stanford. Notice a pattern? Me too… outside of UCLA, the PAC 10 is a shit conference. Much like everyone else, I loves me some St Joe's too. I really thought they'd be favored over Okla...

Yeah, if Vegas says Davidson by 2, it ain't an upset. I picked Davidson mainly because of how banged up OU is and their inability to score many points. They have great D though, but the banged up factor in my books gives them the ultimate L.

As for the PAC, while I would not go as far as saying they are a shit conference, as I said in the ACC thread, outside of UCLA, the rest of the top 6 in the conference are average at best.

Goober McTuber · Post by **Goober McTuber** » Tue Mar 18, 2008 2:14 pm

Dinsdale wrote:Have I ever mentioned that NC is my east-of-the-Mississip rooting interest.

Why no, Paul, I don’t think you had mentioned that.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Tue Mar 18, 2008 2:23 pm

Dinsdale wrote:Have I ever mentioned that NC is my east-of-the-Mississip rooting interest.

Fucking DISGUSTING, dude. How anyone outside of NC could root for the baby blue is beyond me.

ucantdoitdoggieSTyle2 · Tue Mar 18, 2008 2:25 pm

IndyFrisco wrote:Yeah, if Vegas says Davidson by 2, it ain't an upset. I picked Davidson mainly because of how banged up OU is and their inability to score many points. They have great D though, but the banged up factor in my books gives them the ultimate L.

I am gonna go out on a limb here and state you're the only person in America who has Davidson over OU…..

I don't like your chances in the Soccer Mom pool..

ucantdoitdoggieSTyle2 · Tue Mar 18, 2008 2:42 pm

I am extremely disappointed Dins hasn't posted in this thread after the word "ROY" was dropped like 5 or 6 times. I really thought dude had some sort of auto-response macro hard-wired into a word recognition program that would rattle off a 700 word

upon this word being typed into any and all forums. :-(

Goober McTuber · Post by **Goober McTuber** » Tue Mar 18, 2008 2:58 pm

ucantdoitdoggieSTyle2 wrote:All you dorks picking Davidson as an "upset" better check yourselves…they are FAVORED to win the game.

Some dude on Mike and Mike this morning mentioned like 5 games where the Vegas spread favored the lower seed. But my understanding was that Vegas lines are set to try and draw equal action on both sides, not necessarily to indicate which team they think will win. Feel free to launch a bitter tirade in response to this, you fucking poseur.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Tue Mar 18, 2008 3:05 pm

It's irrelevant, anyway. We're talking "upsets" within the context of seedings.