first round upsets

[War Wagon]

You're high, Jon.

Anyone with a lick of sense knows the final is going to be Kansas vs. N. Carolina.

Psycho T out front should tell ya'.

UNC 87
KU 84

Wow. My bracket has them meeting in the semis. Go figure.

[ucantdoitdoggieSTyle2]

But my understanding was that Vegas lines are set to try and draw equal action on both sides, not necessarily to indicate which team they think will win. Feel free to launch a bitter tirade in response to this, you fucking poseur.

Don't mind if I do....

So, if Vegas set the line at Davidson -29, it couldn't be said that they should win this game? The only thing we could state with absolute certainty is that about 50% of the action will be seen by either team? Is that your point?

Ya know, if Davidson wasn't a no-name team playing against a nationally recognized "name", you may have a point about evening out the action. Except that the line would move against OU's favor to bring action to Davidson. By making the no-name team the favorite, this helps your cause, uhm, how?

0-2, bitch. Feel free to not talk about gambling or oddsmaking... ever again. Or, at least on the very rare occasions I actually log in to this shithole.

[Goober McTuber]

Perhaps Davidson being the favorite had something to do with the game being less than 200 miles from their campus and 3,000 miles from Spokane, and Vegas figured bettors to like that angle. It’s certainly gotten a lot of play on talk radio. Thanks for not disappointing, BTW.

[Mook]

Vegas isn't setting lines based on who they think will win......the lines are based on public perception and to get action on both sides. Vegas doesn't care what the seeds are and are probably a more accurate reflection of public perception. But in most cases Vegas wants even money on both sides.......doesn't always happen, see the Super Bowl this year.

There are people who believe in trap lines and that Vegas is sucking you in....and in some cases, I think there could be some validity to this. The guys at LVSC have more information at their disposal than any of us will, we aren't going to have an angle on the game that they haven't thought of. Therefore if you see a pointspread too good to be true it would be good to evaluate the line from both sides, figure out what you are missing. But primarily Vegas will win with action on both sides of the line and then collecting the juice. Movement in the line frequently occurs to get equal volume (although there is also the "reverse line move, but that is a conversation for another day) on either side. Vegas does have some exposure in sportsbooks, that's why they have ridiculously low limits at almost all books. Davidson could also be getting a point or two based on a perceived "home-court" advantagae in this game....to me the game would be pick at a neutral site.....Davidson by 3 at home and Zags by 3 or 4 in Spokane. The Davidson line is right on.

But to answer the question - Vegas books and folks at LVSC are trying to get equal action on both sides of games.....it limits their exposure, at least as much as they can.

[indyfrisco]

I got my "upsets" mixed up.

I have Davidson over Gonzaga and St. Joes over OU. Sorry, haven't memorized the brackets yet.

[RumpleForeskin]

Villanova is a lock.

[Goober McTuber]

Villanova is a lock.

Based on this statement alone, I just changed my pick to Clemson.

[ucantdoitdoggieSTyle2]

I got my "upsets" mixed up.

I have Davidson over Gonzaga and St. Joes over OU. Sorry, haven't memorized the brackets yet.

Not a problem… you even got me going to the point where I referenced OU instead of the Zags in a previous post.

[Goober McTuber]

I got my "upsets" mixed up.

I have Davidson over Gonzaga and St. Joes over OU. Sorry, haven't memorized the brackets yet.

Not a problem… you even got me going to the point where I referenced OU instead of the Zags in a previous post.

Feel free to not talk about gambling or oddsmaking... ever again, bitch.

:wink:

[RumpleForeskin]

Villanova is a lock.

Based on this statement alone, I just changed my pick to Clemson.

In that case, UNC will win the first round and so will Memphis, Texas, UCLA, Kansas, Duke, Georgetown, and Tennessee.

[ucantdoitdoggieSTyle2]

I think picking against the Zags is a "sexy" selection this yaer… I know they play in a shit conference, but I saw them beat UConn in Boston in December. To say the fans were pro-UConn would be an understatement. Ray Allen (former Husky) was there and even came onto the court during a timeout. The crowd went nuts. Half of the Red Sox team and a bunch of other "celebrities" were there. The crowd was electric. My point? Gonzaga has already traveled 3000 miles into a hostile environment against a team better than Davidson and won. They are 4-5 vs Top 50 against Davidson's 0-3 Take the 2 points.....

[Dinsdale]

As far as my upsets go, I'll take K State over USC

Anyone picking USC in this game either didn't follow the first 1/2-2/3 of the PAC10 season, or has a gorribly short memory. If anyone thinks for one second that once the Dance starts and the soptlights shine brightly that OJ Mustard isn't going to see it as his personal workout for NBA scouts...


Just wasn't following along this season.


This is just an over-the-top selfish guy who doesn't care about anything on the planet except what's best for OJ Miracle Whip.


Also, anyone who thinks that Gonzaga ("Zag" as in "zig zag," not "zog" as in some bad guy from science fiction movies... thanks for your attention to this matter)...

Anyone who thinks that the Zags are going down because they have to travel so far, has obviously never been to Spokane. Trust me, if it means a free ride away from Spokane, those kids will be pumped to extend the trip as long as possible. The farther you get them from Spokane, the better they play.

[Dinsdale]

I am extremely disappointed Dins hasn't posted in this thread after the word "ROY" was dropped like 5 or 6 times. I really thought dude had some sort of auto-response macro hard-wired into a word recognition program that would rattle off a 700 word :dins: upon this word being typed into any and all forums. :-(

He should change his name to AS. ROY is sooooo last year. But fret not, UCan't -- the ROY club will grow next year. Bet the rent on it. Take the best playe, spend a season training him and teaching the game, and hmmmm..... wonder who takes the ROY title next year?


He works out with the team a half speed these days-btw. Not supposed to go anywhere near 100%... but he's sill dunking on fools in drills.

[Terry in Crapchester]

I suppose I, of all people, ought to be pimping Winthrop for a repeat of history. But I don't see it happening this year. This is not the same team they had a year ago. While RPI is not the gold standard, ordinarily it is a pretty good predictor of seeding at least among the lower seeds. On RPI, Winthrop deserved a 16 seed this year, but got a 13 instead.

There's an upset in a 5-12 game nearly every year. This year I'd go with Temple over Michigan State, or maybe Villanova over Clemson, in that regard (although I have to admit that George Mason scares me for some reason). I also like St. Joe's and K State, as others have picked.

I'm not sure Indiana will beat Arkansas in the 8-9 matchup, but either way I think the winner of that game could give North Carolina a real scare in the second round.

I don't like any teams seeded 13 or lower to pull off a first round upset. If I have to pick one, I'd go with Georgia over Xavier, but history would suggest that there isn't necessarily a lot of blowover from conference tourney play.

[Degenerate]

And we all know Roy Williams couldn't coach his way out of a paper box. His coaching strategy is "I've got 5 guys better than any 1 player on your team, now let's see you try and stop them". But when he goes up against a team that has a couple guys as good or better than anyone on his team he is royally fucked.

I've been kicked off Jayhawk boards for not worshipping the ground Roy walked on (pre-'04) but this take is so breathtakingly dumb I expect to see you across from Skip Bayless on ESPN2.

Let's see-

'-Took Larry Brown's recruits and smoked the eventual national champs UNLV in '90 (Augmon, Johnson, david Butler, Greg Anthony)

-Made the '91 Final Four crushing Damon Bailey/Cal Cheaney's Indiana (to the point Knight quit coaching in the 2nd half - later a tournament trademark of Bobby the Quitter) and Day/Mayberry'/Oliver Miller's Arkansas along the way. their best player was arguably Mark Randall.

-Diito '93 beating Jason Kidd's Cal and #1 seed Indiana

-Won the '05 title with players he didn't recruit.

I'd love to see you pass that take off with anyone who has been involved with organized basketball for longer than five minutes. Even that autistic dude in upstate NY who went all Anderson Hunt in garbage time would laugh at this.

[buckeye_in_sc]

^^^^^^^

Fucking RACK...

I sure as hell am not a Roy supporter but damn that was good shit...

[RumpleForeskin]

Villanova is a lock.

Whats up.

[War Wagon]

I'm not sure Indiana will beat Arkansas in the 8-9 matchup, but either way I think the winner of that game could give North Carolina a real scare in the second round.

That Ind - Ark game was painful to watch. Just fugly.

NC will beat Ark handily.

I don't like any teams seeded 13 or lower to pull off a first round upset.

I guess not many folks saw Sienna coming. I certainly didn't.

Sienna? :?

They abused Vandy like a rented mule.

Btw - Nice call Rumps. I really liked Clemson because of the effort I watched them put forth against UNC in the ACC final. Guess they used it all up.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

There's just something about Clemson sports, Wags. Whether it be football or basketball...they just don't get over the hump.