stinger33 wrote:Actually, I'm pretty sure only one of the non-BCS teams has to lose for Iowa. Take a look at the rankings. You'll find that all three (Utah, Boise State, and Ball State) rank ahead of Cincinatti and North Carolina, the current leaders in the Big East and ACC. If things stay as they are, the Big East and ACC might not get their automatic bids, thanks to the clause stating that if a non-BCS team is ranked in the top 16 of the BCS and is ahead of a conference champion, they get a BCS bid. Ball State sits at #17, and with a Michigan State loss at Penn State (#15), they would move into the picture. So as things stand, two of the three possible (likely) non-BCS bids are actually fillers for the Big East and ACC, plus an at-large. If any one of them lose, they miss their chance, and an at-large is open. And that would go to Ohio State, opening the door for Iowa to either Tampa or Orlando. The ACC and Big East champions, whoever they may be, are the ones who need more than one non-BCS team to lose.
I understand the clause you're referring to, but I think you misunderstand it.
As I understand it, the automatic qualification for a non-BCS team is (a) top 12 finish; or (b) top 16 finish and finish ahead of at least one team entitled to an automatic bid from a BCS conference. But that automatic selection for a non-BCS team works against the at-large selections, not against the otherwise automatic selections.
Example: 2006 season. Boise State finished #8 and was an automatic qualifier for the BCS. Wake Forest won the ACC and finished #14 in the final regular-season BCS rankings, but still received an automatic BCS bid.
There are other ways for teams to get an automatic BCS bid outside of winning one of the BCS conferences. ND gets an automatic BCS bid with a top 8 finish. Any BCS conference team that doesn't win its conference gets an automatic bid if they finish in the top 3, or the top 4 if each of the teams in the top 3 is the champion of a BCS conference. Any team that finishes in the top 2 gets an automatic bid even if they wouldn't receive an automatic bid otherwise.
These bids come out of the at-large pile, they don't work against the automatic bids for BCS conference champions.
Lefty started another thread about BCS bids. Here's how I see it shaking out.
The conference champions from the BCS conferences each will get an automatic bid. At-large bids will be determined as follows:
1. Highest-ranked non-BCS team gets a bid (automatic).
2. One bid each to the loser of the SEC championship game and the 2nd-place team from the Big XII South. I suspect one will be automatic, the other will not.
That leaves one remaining at-large BCS bid, which, I believe, would be awarded in the following order of priority:
1. USC, if both USC and Oregon State win out.
2. Ohio State, if both Ohio State and Penn State win,
and either USC or Oregon State loses. Also a possibility, albeit less likely, that the BCS at-large bid could go to Michigan State (with a Michigan State win and Ohio State win), or Penn State (with a loss to Michigan State plus an Ohio State loss), if either USC or Oregon State loses.
3. If Ohio State loses, Penn State wins, and either USC or Oregon State loses, the last remaining at-large bid goes to a second non-BCS team.
