Let's talk Final 4

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

UNC over Nova

I think this will be one of those games in which Nova keeps it somewhat close throughout the majority of the game, down 6-8 most of the way, but will never fully take control of the game and UNC will widen the margin as time winds down and will win it by 10-15 points. Nova's had a good run, but UNC is a beast on the big stage, and will just have too many weapons, hungry weapons, for Nova down the stretch.

MSU over UCONN

I think UCONN is quite a bit better than Louisville. L'ville was a bit of a paper tiger. They didn't play Pitt or UCONN on the road, and they didn't play Pitt or UCONN in the Big East tournament.

In any event, this one's probably a long shot despite the "home court advantage" for MSU. I quote that because MSU has not historically played well in football stadiums, and of course got blown out by UNC there earlier in the year, even though MSU suffered big time health issues in that one.

Boards will probably be about even. Depth will be a huge plus for MSU, as the CONN only goes about 7 deep. It'll pretty much come down to tempo and MSU's shooting ability due to Thabeet's interior presence. Suton will have to step out (again) and hit huge shots, and the open space will probably be there for him to do so. Hopefully he can draw Thabeet out a little bit and open up lanes for MSU's guards to attack the rim.

Defensively I think MSU can get it done with their depth. They go 5 deep at the 4 and 5 spots and can throw multiple bodies at Thabeet all game long. I know he's not real skilled offensively, but he sees a lot of high % shots since he's right under the basket most of the time, so he IS going to be a factor. Much of the game though will come down to how well Travis Walton defends A.J. Price. Lock him down, and I think they'll win the game.

In my bracket I've got UNC and MSU in the final game, and I'd love to see the rematch at Ford Field. Talk about the ultimate revenge game. Plus, UNC has had their # in March. I'm sure ESPN has already prematurely ejaculated over the thought of an all Big East championship game, but would be equally thrilled to have UNC and UCONN face off in the finals.

[indyfrisco]

UConn needs to go down 'cause, if they win it all, they'll be vacating their title anyway in a year or so due to NCAA penalties.

Hey, Jimmy-boy. Hit me back and I'll help ya outa dat shit.

Sin,
Poodle Petey

[Terry in Crapchester]

I'm a Big East guy, so I'm pulling for a UConn-Villanova final, with Villanova to take the title as the underdog. Objectively, though, I think Carolina wins it.

Historically speaking, there is some support for a UConn-Villanova final. Since the Big East was formed in '79, the Big East teams that reached the Final Four are a combined 8-0 vs. OOC opponents in the semifinal round, although a rather ordinary 4-4 vs. OOC opponents in the finals.

[Shoalzie]

Game 1: Connecticut-Michigan State

It's kind of appropriate this game is going to be played in a football stadium because this is a tough, hard-nosed matchup. Both teams are sound defensively and rebound the ball. Connecticut is more of the traditional tough Big East team while Louisville possessed the up-tempo style more of an SEC team. Connecticut won't be thrown out of their game when State tries to keep the game at a slower pace.

The intriguing matchup in this game will be in the front court with Thabeet vs. Suton. I can see Suton giving Thabeet issues with his ability to score from the outside. I don't see the Spartans being able to score consistently if they just relied on working down low against Thabeet and Adrien. If Suton can pull Thabeet away from the lane, it'll allow their guards to penetrate and get to the glass. Connecticut is a better rebounding team but State is better on the offensive glass so it'll be interesting to see if the Spartans can get those second and third chance shots.

The key guy for Uccon will be Price, who has made up for the loss of Dyson. Since Dyson went down to injury back on February 11, Price has increased his minutes as well as his offensive production. I'm curious to see which Spartan defender will draw the assignment to guard Price. If this was a featured key to the game on the CBS broadcast, I'd call it "Price Check".

I can't see this being a very high scoring game since both teams are just as content with playing at a slower pace and look for the high percentage shots. State doesn't shoot for the high percentage but will crash the boards like they always do and look for put-backs. This will be one of those games where there will be numerous ties and lead changes and I can't see the lead for either team going beyond 4 or 5 points at the most. This won't be a pretty game but it will be very close and highly-contested. I think State thrives off the semi-hometown crowd in Detroit and grinds out a tough win to advance to Monday night.

Michigan State 66, Connecticut 63


Game 2: North Carolina-Villanova

Nobody has a better starting 5 in America than the Tar Heels. All 5 starters average in double figures. Villanova does has the benefit of having better production off the bench with Fisher and Stokes in their five guard rotation. The Wildcats have the greater volume of guards but they don't have a guard that can do the things Lawson is able to. Cunningham isn't a dominating post player like Griffin but the production from their guards make them a more balanced team than the Sooners.

The Heels average 90 points a game while 'Nova have only given 90 points or more just twice...they were 1-1 in those games. I see the Wildcats being able to keep the Tar Heels from running wild offensively and keep the game close throughout. Oklahoma was able to keep Carolina in the 70s and I can see this being a game being a similar type of game. I like the Heels in the game but I'd take the Wildcats against the number.

North Carolina 75, Villanova 70

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

Shoalz, two things:

1) Calhoun said he's going to put Adrien on Suton, at least to start the game.

2) I would have to imagine MSU will put their best man-to-man defender on Price, which is Travis Walton. In fact, I'd be shocked if it was anybody else.

I pretty much agree with your take though.

[Shine]

The Price matchup is IMO the key to the game. Most of the talk has centered around Thabeet and how MSU might attack him. No doubt that will be a big factor but UConn offensively lives and dies by Price right now. I agree with Mgo that Walton will be the main guy to guard Price, but I expect Izzo will throw lots of guys on Price to try and wear him down. Allen is by no means a lockdown defender but with fresh legs he could guard Price 3-4 minutes each half. Toss in a little bit of Lucas, a little bit of Summers, a little bit of Lucious and a lot of Walton and Price might be out of gas down the stretch.

In terms of Thabeet my guess is that Calhoun will almost play a 1 man zone and keep him in the lane. UConn has enough big bodies to have somebody else check Suton on the perimeter. If Thabeet is in the lane stopping penetration by the MSU guards then Sparty will be forced to make outside shots, something they can struggle with. I think this will be a great game and I can honestly see it going either way. Heart says MSU, head says UConn.

I think that Villanova has the potential to knock off UNC but I just don't see it happening. UNC has seen teams that play a similar style to Nova all year so they'll be prepared. With Lawson healthier they seem like a team on a mission.

My wallet hopes UNC cuts the nets on Monday.

[Shoalzie]

Great take on the UConn-MSU game, Shine...

Shoalz, two things:

1) Calhoun said he's going to put Adrien on Suton, at least to start the game.

2) I would have to imagine MSU will put their best man-to-man defender on Price, which is Travis Walton. In fact, I'd be shocked if it was anybody else.

I pretty much agree with your take though.

I can both of this situations going down. I can also see Price be guarded by Chris Allen throughout the game as well.

Food for thought...4 of the writers from CBS.com give their takes:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketb ... y/11588057

A 2-2 split on UConn-MSU game and all 4 take Carolina...margin of victory ranging from 7, 11, 14 and 17 points.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

I expect Izzo will throw lots of guys on Price to try and wear him down. Allen is by no means a lockdown defender but with fresh legs he could guard Price 3-4 minutes each half. Toss in a little bit of Lucas, a little bit of Summers, a little bit of Lucious and a lot of Walton and Price might be out of gas down the stretch.

Yeah, it's easy to talk about the match ups on paper, but defensive match ups will shift in accordance to how the game is going. I would still expect Walton to guard Price the vast majority of the time because he is the best conditioned player on the team and doesn't wear down easily.

[Shoalzie]

Great crowd...looks like near a full house. RACK the D!

[Shoalzie]

Sparty is starting to get that fire in their eyes that they had last Sunday against Louisville...look out!

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

This is tense. Time to start drinking heavily.

[Shoalzie]

Gotta love their effort...making plays on the defensive end and they are outnumbering UConn on the offensive glass. They are getting at least one more body to the boards more than the Huskies and are getting to the loose balls. Tremendous start to the second half for State.

[King Crimson]

UConn went to sleep on the press those 2-3 possessions in a row....gotta get somebody back. though, i would have called the foul committed on Summers before the shot.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

Fuck. Yes.

[Shoalzie]

UConn had a last wind that Louisville never had but I think the fact that State goes 10 deep and doesn't overplay any of their key guys, they were more fresh down the stretch. I even thought Thabeet tired out at the end of the first half.

RACK Izzo and the boys...nice win, Sparty!

[buckeye_in_sc]

Huge racks to sparty and Izzo...and the crowd...Cut them down MONDAY!

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

The key was shutting down Price. Their guards seemed totally rattled.

[Shoalzie]

Me thinks it won't be a 35 point game this time around...love the matchup for the title game.

College hoops postseason > college football postseason (if you can call it that)

[Screw_Michigan]

RACK Detroit and RACK the Spartans. MSU cleans up loose balls and dominates in the pain. The guards are playing with the size and force of their big men.

Izzo cuts 'em down like a mercenary.

[buckeye_in_sc]

Living in charlotte...I hate all things ACC...please MSU CUT THEM DOWN monday night...

all the Carolina fans are talking about is how they bastardized MSU in the Challenge...who cares...what matters is now...

GO SPARTY!

[L45B]

Wow. Izzo's boys are really starting to grow on me (maybe it's all those Ohio kids on the team). Seemed to me in the beginning of both the Louisville & UConn games, that MSU would get overpowered and would have to put on a shooting spree to even sniff a win. But goddamn, are they well-coached and their depth is underrated. UConn was slow and tired in the 2nd half and MSU's athleticism (holy shit can Summers fly!!) took over. Don't know if they'll have the answer for UNC's inside-out game, but I'm pullin' for Sparty!

[M Club]

(maybe it's all those Ohio kids on the team).

what, all three of them?

[buckeye_in_sc]

My math might be rusty...but I think college basketball has 12 schollies

3/12 = 1/4 or 25%...that is good for Ohio and when you consider 2 of the 3 are Raymar Morgan and Delvin Roe...2 kids that play important roles...

I could care less if they were all from North Dakota as long as they beat some Tar Heel ASS!

[M Club]

well, they do have nine kids from michigan.

[ucantdoitdoggieSTyle2]

The key was shutting down Price. Their guards seemed totally rattled.

Nice win. After pretty much giving up with about 3 minutes left, it got interesting at 74-71 for all of .62 seconds. Fucking tease.


Props and good luck tomorrow. No one wants Carolina to win, do they?

[M Club]

that's exactly why i never enter any tourney pools: i don't ever want to put myself in a position where i have to root for duke or unc.