SC-Oregon

[.m2]

Looks like "another" m2 post was deleted... by the mods

Van wrote:Or course you will. Cal isn't playing in a big game.



Sure they are.... a team in the desert.

After Saturday.... you won't be playing in an important game the rest of the year and will be playing for 3rd place in the PAC 10.


It really is all "too funny".

Too funny...

[GreginPG]

As you've probably heard, Duckfan has a little Halloween thing going, in the form of a "blackout"

Another school doing a "blackout" on Halloween? How original.

[Dinsdale]

Regardless of the outcome, one thing's for certain...


There's gonna be some hotass cheerleaders roaming the sidelines.

[Van]

Dins, you going? You gotta go.

[Van]

Two interesting things, watching Game Day...

-USC is 9-1 on the road against top 10 teams.

-Both Anthony McCoy and Stanley Havili will miss this game. That's big. The TE and FB are USC's two biggest safety valve options, and they're both big time producers of big plays.

Also, yep, it's going to rain tonight. Autzen is just going to be ridiculous.

[JayDuck]

Two interesting things, watching Game Day...

-USC is 9-1 on the road against top 10 teams.

That's kind of a garbage stat, like the "undefeated in Novemeber" stat.

USC has lost 6 games, total, in the last 5 years.

USC is 59-6 since the 2004 season.

9-1 against top 10 teams is great....90%
But, 59 wins in 65 games 90.7% as it is.

SC isn't doing any better than they normally do against Top 10 teams. They just have about the same record no matter what the situation is.

Its funny. I heard some gambling douche on one of his radio shows the other day picking SC because "they are 18-3 when they are favored by 3 points or less"...

I'm like, well shit. Again, they've lost 6 games total in 5 years. The other way to look at that stat is that half of their loss total has come when favored by 3 or less.

SC's record is going to be great no matter how you try to micromanage the circimstance. Its not the circumstance that has been winning the games. They've been the better team 95% of the time. It probably wasn't the case against Texas. Probably wasn't the case against Oregon in '07. And, we'll wait and see it play out, but it sure looks like it might not be the case today.

[Van]

Jay, there are a lotta teams out there with sparkling winning percentages. Boise St has a similar winning percentage in recent years, for instance. Texas and OU have similar records.

The difference is those road wins against top ten teams. Nobody else has that. Nobody else is still winning at their usual 90% clip, even against top ten competition on the road.

[JayDuck]

Jay, there are a lotta teams out there with sparkling winning percentages. Boise St has a similar winning percentage in recent years, for instance. Texas and OU have similar records.

The difference is those road wins against top ten teams. Nobody else has that. Nobody else is still winning at their usual 90% clip, even against top ten competition on the road.

Pretty sure Boise is undefeated against top-10 programs on the road (i.e. - they haven't played any) Maybe Georgia was a top-10 team when they lost there a few years back, so they have 1 loss just like SC.

What's Florida's record in these games? (honestly curious. I don't know)

SC has played a few more games against top-10 teams during that stretch, but I'm also guessing that this is one of those "at the time they were ranked" stats and not end of the year, which means SC gets to count tOSU this year, Cal in '07, etc...a bunch of teams that really aren't top-10 caliber.

USC has been one of the top 1 to 3 teams in all of college football over the past 7 years. Nobody doesn't know that. Nobody is disputing it. They've been better than 95% of the teams that they've stepped onto the field against. Wether those teams have been ranked in the top-10 or not. That's all this stat suggests...a "fact" that has never been in dispute.

Its silly...

[Van]

Yeah, you're right. Heading into a big road game, what difference does a team's proven record of winning big road games matter?

Totally silly. Throw out all the records. Avoid established trends. Always bet your gut.

[JayDuck]

Yeah, you're right. Heading into a big road game, what difference does a team's proven record of winning big road games matter?

Totally silly. Throw out all the records. Avoid established trends. Always bet your gut.

You still don't get it, Van, its a silly stat because it doesn't really say all that much about how SC plays in big road games.

OK, 9-1 on the road against Top-10 teams. *Clap* *Clap*. Congratz.

But you can't convince me that it wasn't a big game at OSU last year. They weren't "top 10", but SC had lost the last time they were there, and they were a good team, and finished in the top-20.

You can't convince me that it wasn't a big game at UCLA in 2006. It was a fucking rivalry game.

You add in the actual Top-10 road loss and half of all of USCs losses have come on the road in big games that the team should have been up for. If you are telling me that SCs players and coaches are such prima-donnas that they can't get up for play playing the #16th ranked team, or their cross town rivals, vs. the #9 ranked team, then they've got bigger issues. Perhaps nobody worries about their press clippings as much as SC, if that's the case.

And 5 of the 6 losses have been on the road, big games or not.

Perhaps you should be worried that Oregon is only ranked #12 in the Coaches Poll. Or do the Trojans only get up for a team based on where they are ranked in the BCS poll? Is that why their losses generally come earlier in the year, before the first BCS poll is released?

[Van]

Jay, so, if USC wins today, knocking Oregon out of the top ten, does that mean it really wasn't a road win against a top ten team?

Guess what? Pretty much, unless they're in the SEC, anytime a team loses at home, they fall out of the top ten. USC keeps knocking people out of the top ten, by going into their building and beating them. They don't get credit for it?

[JayDuck]

Jay, so, if USC wins today, knocking Oregon out of the top ten, does that mean it really wasn't a road win against a top ten team?

Guess what? Pretty much, unless they're in the SEC, anytime a team loses at home, they fall out of the top ten. USC keeps knocking people out of the top ten, by going into their building and beating them. They don't get credit for it?

I sure don't consider our win over #6 Cal a win over a top-10 team, if that answers your question.

But my question to you is, were the games @ OSU last year and UCLA '06 not big games?

For what its worth Oregon is 8-2 vs Top-10 teams at Autzen, by the same standards

[Van]

Jay, so, if USC wins today, knocking Oregon out of the top ten, does that mean it really wasn't a road win against a top ten team?

Guess what? Pretty much, unless they're in the SEC, anytime a team loses at home, they fall out of the top ten. USC keeps knocking people out of the top ten, by going into their building and beating them. They don't get credit for it?

I sure don't consider our win over #6 Cal a win over a top-10 team, if that answers your question.

No, it doesn't answer my question, at all. It's actually an attempt to avoid answering the question.

Answer the question. If USC beats Oregon today, knocking Oregon out of the top ten in what is a must win game for both teams, will you not give them credit for a road win against a top ten team?

But my question to you is, were the games @ OSU last year and UCLA '06 not big games?

Only because they lost. Going in, those were simply games USC was heavily favored to win. The UCLA game was supposed to be a slam dunk, and they were going to the Rose Bowl, regardless.

Rivalry games are always big though, obviously.

The Oregon St game was only the third game of the year. It was the conference opener. It wasn't like everything was riding on it.

For what its worth Oregon is 8-2 vs Top-10 teams at Autzen, by the same standards

That is worth something. Clearly, it is. Autzen is a bitch, as evidenced by that mark. Beating cupcakes at home, like Boise always does, that's one thing. Going 8-2 against top ten teams, that's obviously a much more telling stat.

[Dinsdale]

Also, yep, it's going to rain tonight. Autzen is just going to be ridiculous.

It never rains in Autzen Stadium.

You must be looking at a different weather forecast FROM me (note proper grammar, Vannar).


Supposed to be about the same in Eugene (about 100 miles south of my current locale) as here, and it's clearing right up (after a gully-washer early this morning) -- supposed to stay that way for a day or two, and anything that falls will be "Oregon Sunshine," a barely-noticeable light mist (which is what most of those big-number of rainy days the masses seem to think about the Valley consist of).

BTW -- Masoli hates playing in the rain, and has struggled any time he deals with a wet ball... he does get better each time, though. I think he just throws the ball too freaking hard to retain much accuracy when the ball is a little wet...

So he'll just run it on you to the tune of about 120 and 3 tuddies.


A Taylor Mays/ Jerimiah Masoli collision could be one of the great sights we'll see this year. Two big balls of muscle moving at a very high speed, and neither one seems to have the good sense to realize when their bell has been rung.


And no, I won't be going, unless some miracle happens in the next couple of hours.

But I had a chance at some good seats to the Sheepfuckers, but declined in favor of getting MOTHERFUCKING PUMPED for the real game (not the one Kal is playing in).


Is it 5:00 yet?

That massive SC bandwagon should be about empty by 8:30. The thrift shops of southern california should be rife with USC gear by tomorrow morning.