8 mill more college grads? No thanks

[Onions]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39872376


Over the summer, Barack Obama promised a college education program that would produce 8 million more college graduates by 2020. Recently uncovered data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggest that this is a terrible idea.

America is already producing too many college graduates.

Over 317,000 waiters and waitresses have college degrees (over 8,000 of them have doctoral or professional degrees), along with over 80,000 bartenders, and over 18,000 parking lot attendants. All told, some 17,000,000 Americans with college degrees are doing jobs that the BLS says require less than the skill levels associated with a bachelor’s degree.

He then produces this table showing the percentages of college grads in low-skilled jobs.


Underemployment Chart
OCCUPATION PERCENT WITH AT LEAST BACHELOR'S NUMBER
Customer service representatives 21.62 482,784
Waiters and waitresses 13.40 317,759
Secretaries, except legal, medical, and executive 16.64 311,440
Executive secretaries and administrative assistants 16.64 248,131
Receptionists and information clerks 12.89 141,476
Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand 5.07 118,441
Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners 5.01 107,457
Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer 5.09 85,205
Bartenders 16.00 80,542
Carpenters 7.27 65,412
Food preparation workers 7.24 63,737
Amusement and recreation attendants 24.61 63,704
Landscaping and groundskeeping workers 6.77 62,414
Construction laborers 5.82 59,409
Telemarketers 15.85 54,713
Postal service mail carriers 13.95 49,452
Electrician 7.76 49,109
Hotel, motel, and resort desk clerks 16.14 37,156
Flight attendants 29.80 29,645
Parking lot attendants 13.74 18,749

It’s from this table very clear that the demand for college graduates is not keeping with the supply. Increasing the number of college graduates will only exacerbate the problem.

It’s easy to see why Obama could make the foolish assumption that increasing the number of college graduates would be economically beneficial. After all, going to college helped him tremendously. And college graduates earn more money, on average, than lesser-educated peers. So if more people went to college, more of them would earn more money, right?

This reminds me of a certain kind of thinking that you heard a lot about during the housing bubble. Back when George Bush was campaigning to increase home-ownership, he often argued for the social benefits of home-ownership. Home owners were less likely to rely on government, they stabilized neighborhoods, produced positive externalities for everyone.

Of course, the marginal returns from increasing the number of homeowners were minimal and the costs—well, we’re still living with the costs.

Vedder points to a working paper that examines the marginal returns to education.

This week an extraordinarily interesting new study was posted on the Web site of America’s most prestigious economic-research organization, the National Bureau of Economic Research. Three highly regarded economists (one of whom has won the Nobel Prize in Economic Science) have produced “Estimating Marginal Returns to Education,” Working Paper 16474 of the NBER. After very sophisticated and elaborate analysis, the authors conclude “In general, marginal and average returns to college are not the same.” (p. 28)

In other words, even if on average, an investment in higher education yields a good, say 10 percent, rate of return, it does not follow that adding to existing investments will yield that return, partly for reasons outlined above. The authors (Pedro Carneiro, James Heckman, and Edward Vytlacil) make that point explicitly, stating “Some marginal expansions of schooling produce gains that are well below average returns, in general agreement with the analysis of Charles Murray.”

College education may very well be to Obama what the home ownership was to Bush: a government induced bubble that leaves Americans buried under a mountain of debt used to buy an asset whose value just keeps dropping.

[BSmack]

There's nothing wrong with an educated populace. Period.

[Derron]

There's nothing wrong with an educated populace. Period.

Fuck..I have to agree with Bri here.

Those statistics are bullshit in my opinion.

At some point this thing is turning around. The unfucking of the economy will occur and those college grads will be in positions to cash in big time on the best jobs, the ones already employed higher will advance and a general economic recovery will follow.

Right now company" can hire BS or Business grads to sweep the fucking floors.

[Shlomart Ben Yisrael]

Right now company" can hire BS or Business grads...

shutyomouth?

[mvscal]

There's nothing wrong with an educated populace. Period.

Are you unable to read?

[BSmack]

There's nothing wrong with an educated populace. Period.

Are you unable to read?

Not only am I able to read, I am able to respond to the content of a post. Apparently you feel like throwing feces today.

[Dr_Phibes]

College education may very well be to Obama what the home ownership was to Bush: a government induced bubble that leaves Americans buried under a mountain of debt used to buy an asset whose value just keeps dropping.

That's the most fucked up thing I've ever read. How do you know when an education bubble bursts? What happens? That guy is on acid, man.

[Screw_Michigan]

That's the most fucked up thing I've ever read. How do you know when an education bubble bursts? What happens? That guy is on acid, man.

Law school bubble is about to burst anytime now.

[smackaholic]

there's more to it than an oversupply of college grads.

there is also an artificially high number of yobs that "require" a degree.

there are all sorts of jobs out there that require certain levels of education. i'm fine with this when it comes to rocket surgery type yobs, but plenty can be filled by people with lower levels of education. i think in some cases it comes down to an artificial system perpetrated by other college grads who want to keep their gigs in a certain pay range and a good way of doing it is to limit applicants by education level. admitting that a reasonably bright high school grad could walk right into the job would drag down the salary.

the bottom line here is that there really aren't that many jobs that require higher education. our history is full of examples of brilliant people who achieved much with very little formal education.

[Dr_Phibes]

After very sophisticated and elaborate analysis, the authors conclude “In general, marginal and average returns to college are not the same.”

I'll guess, they all dressed like Noel Coward during their investigation?

[Shlomart Ben Yisrael]

After very sophisticated and elaborate analysis, the authors conclude “In general, marginal and average returns to college are not the same.”

I'll guess, they all dressed like Noel Coward during their investigation?

With smoking jackets and French cigarettes in long filters, while women with sensible shoes and copies of
Proust's Cities of the Plain tucked under their arms, sip cran-tinis.

[Derron]

the bottom line here is that there really aren't that many jobs that require higher education.

Please samackie..you are way better at this than that completely bullshit statement. The bottom line is, a post secondary education of at least 2 years does not really get you fuck all in the job market right now. 2 years in a trade school does not get you fuck all. and 4 years in the military gets you 4 years in school fucking paid for with living expense allotment.

Now jobs that pay shit, enough to buy a house, car and a couple of kids are not going to be had unless you have a degree..because unlike the 2 previous generations, saying "fuck college" when you got out of high school, I will just get a job at the factory and knock down 45K tops, make the old lady work..we might do OK.

But those factory jobs left, and our whole economy changed. If you do not have the degree is something, you don't even make the first pile on resume sorting day. Even for jobs that are a step down from the "norm".

I hammered on my kids about going to college. I did not listen to my parents, went a 2 couple of years, left off for 6 years, went back for 2, worked a while and went back and got an additional AA in Business.

It took my kids a bit longer, but in the next 4 years, there will be a total of 3 BS degrees, 2 AA's, and 1 MBA. 3 of them are courtesy of the United States Marine Corp, and the American taxpayer, and my kids and myself thank those who made veterans education easy and affordable. Damn shame it was not easier for the Viet Nam guys.

Bottom line is that you have to have a degree right now if you expect to get a job paying more than about 40K a year overall. No degree, you are not going anywhere, easily anyway.

[Wolfman]

On the other hand, I'm thinking that if you were a young 16 year old with good mechanical skills that you might be better off quitting high school and going to work for an AC installer/repair company--learning the trade and at maybe age 20 buying a pick up truck and tools and setting yourself up in business in a place like SW FL. You don't think that by age 40 you won't be one of those rich people that the federal government wants to tax out of existence ? Then again you can go on--finish high school--go to college and spend $40K to get a BA in Political Science and work at 7-11.

[BSmack]

our history is full of examples of brilliant people who achieved much with very little formal education.

Two things.

1. Those people are the exception, not the rule.
2. The days of getting out of HS and getting a job for 30 bucks an hour sweeping floors at GM are over.

[mvscal]

How do you know when an education bubble bursts?

Weellll....one of the indicators might be the fact that you have more than 400,000 waiters, bartenders and parking lot attendents with four year degrees.

Then you consider the fact that the cost of tuition is rising while the earning potential of that degree is plummeting and most reasonably intelligent people are able to draw the appropriate conclusion from the data.

The bottom line is that you have some sort of connections however modest or you might as well get comfortable with neo-serfdom.

[BSmack]

Weellll....one of the indicators might be the fact that you have more than 400,000 waiters, bartenders and parking lot attendents with four year degrees.

And why is this a bad thing?

[Diego in Seattle]

You don't think that by age 40 you won't be one of those rich people that the federal government wants to tax out of existence ?

Yeah....they hardlly exist anymore.

They must be on food stamps by now.

[mvscal]

Weellll....one of the indicators might be the fact that you have more than 400,000 waiters, bartenders and parking lot attendents with four year degrees.

And why is this a bad thing?

Weelll...it's a bad thing because those occupations do not require any formal education beyond basic literacy. When a waiter assumes a colossal amount of debt in order to become...a waiter, who do you suppose assumes the burden of this accelerated financial risk? The banks? Really? Guess again.

How many times do dumbfucks like you have to get burned before you start to figure it out?

[smackaholic]

the bottom line here is that there really aren't that many jobs that require higher education.

Please samackie..you are way better at this than that completely bullshit statement. The bottom line is, a post secondary education of at least 2 years does not really get you fuck all in the job market right now. 2 years in a trade school does not get you fuck all. and 4 years in the military gets you 4 years in school fucking paid for with living expense allotment.

Now jobs that pay shit, enough to buy a house, car and a couple of kids are not going to be had unless you have a degree..because unlike the 2 previous generations, saying "fuck college" when you got out of high school, I will just get a job at the factory and knock down 45K tops, make the old lady work..we might do OK.

But those factory jobs left, and our whole economy changed. If you do not have the degree is something, you don't even make the first pile on resume sorting day. Even for jobs that are a step down from the "norm".

I hammered on my kids about going to college. I did not listen to my parents, went a 2 couple of years, left off for 6 years, went back for 2, worked a while and went back and got an additional AA in Business.

It took my kids a bit longer, but in the next 4 years, there will be a total of 3 BS degrees, 2 AA's, and 1 MBA. 3 of them are courtesy of the United States Marine Corp, and the American taxpayer, and my kids and myself thank those who made veterans education easy and affordable. Damn shame it was not easier for the Viet Nam guys.

Bottom line is that you have to have a degree right now if you expect to get a job paying more than about 40K a year overall. No degree, you are not going anywhere, easily anyway.

I'm not arguing any of this. My point is, many of these jobs requiring a degree really shouldn't. Many if not most of these jobs require skills that are learned ON THE FUKKING JOB, not in a class room. I think companies be better off if they didn't automatically eliminate many talented people simply because they lack the proper piece of paper. Consider one's edumacashun, for sure, but don't blackball a large chunk of the population because of it.

Having a degree does show something. It shows that you are able to set a goal and achieve it and that you have an IQ somewhat above room temp. And on that second part, I sometimes wonder. I see plenty folks walking around with degrees who ain't the sharpest knife in the drawer. Not even close. Also see those that are HS educated and are very bright and hard workers.

[BSmack]

Weelll...it's a bad thing because those occupations do not require any formal education beyond basic literacy.

When a waiter assumes a colossal amount of debt in order to become...a waiter, who do you suppose assumes the burden of this accelerated financial risk? The banks? Really? Guess again.

Not many people wait tables or park cars their whole life. When I graduated back in 1990, it was during some pretty hard economic times. I worked a bunch of jobs below my pay grade. For a while I never had less than two jobs and sometimes three. But I eventually moved into jobs that DO require college level skills. Which means my investment eventually did pay off.

As for "who assumes the burden," should someone default, obviously you have never heard of compounded interest. That student loan follows you for the rest of your life like a fucking albatross should you default on it. There are people out there who will have their social security garnished.

What those study numbers tell us is nothing more than the obvious, the economy is not back to a full employment level by any stretch. Any further extrapolations are nothing more than bullshit.

[Dr_Phibes]

What those study numbers tell us is nothing more than the obvious, the economy is not back to a full employment level by any stretch. Any further extrapolations are nothing more than bullshit.

Weell... clearly in a world with more and more competitors playing the same game and going after the same piece of a very small pie, the answer is obvious. Less education.

He's come to the conclusion that equality of outcome doesn't reflect equality of opportunity, so eliminate the opportunity, but he's so fucking stupid he's probably never heard the concept.
But that's what happens when schools become a business, a failing student is an unhappy customer and education becomes a commodity. The same entry/merit qualifications of the eighteenth century British officer corps

[Carson]

Meanwhile, there is a MASSIVE shortage of tradespeople in the workplace.

But nobody wants to work outside anymore. They all want to stare at a monitor and push a mouse in a cubicle for a living.

Skilled construction workers can earn as much or more than a lot of white-collar workers. Just stay off the dope.

[Screw_Michigan]

But nobody wants to work outside anymore. They all want to stare at a monitor and push a mouse in a cubicle for a living.

How long did it take you to figure that out?

[R-Jack]

But nobody wants to work outside anymore. They all want to stare at a monitor and push a mouse in a cubicle for a living.

How long did it take you to figure that out?

It was an epiphany. It happened right about when he came positioned his moniter at the proper angle in his cubicle to watch porn in peace.

[Mace]

There's nothing wrong with an educated populace. Period.

Absolutely. Getting a college education has never guaranteed anyone a good job, but good luck trying to get one without a degree. I'd also rather have my kids prepared to enter the business world with a business degree or MBA, even if I was turning a family owned business over to them. It's also not a bad thing to have that degree to fall back on, just in case the business fails or falls on hard times. I mean, there's only so much demand for windchimes in the world and m2 has pretty much cornered the market.

[Derron]

There's nothing wrong with an educated populace. Period.

I'd also rather have my kids prepared to enter the business world with a business degree or MBA, even if I was turning a family owned business over to them. It's also not a bad thing to have that degree to fall back on, just in case the business fails or falls on hard times.

Excellent follow on point. Wolfie and KC think fuck college..I will start a business....Ahh..OK...

Because of my independent attitude and inability to work for people dumber than me, I started my own business years ago. My technical education (agricultural engineering) was great for the business, excavating and commercial landscape construction. It did very little to prepare me to run the business.

I went back to night school and got an AA in Business Administration. That helped out a lot in running the business. However, our government and society has vilified business to the point, and our government taxes and regulates us to the point, where a small business not doing a minimum of 750 a year, is just one expensive headache that will not pay you shit. Some very simple Excel task will easily prove it.

My one kid is getting an MBA, and can go into any business he chooses or start his own if he so desires. Point is the degree helps you run a business, and helps you get a good job. I would not turn over a business to a kid or anybody for that matter with out a degree..period.

[Derron]

Meanwhile, there is a MASSIVE shortage of tradespeople in the workplace.

Hmmm.. look who is smoking crack already this morning.....shortage of tradespeople ?? Like fuck there is

There is damn near 50% unemployment in the trades in Oregon ..the other states have to have similar rates. If you do not have to hire out of the hall or pay prevailing wage, you can get non union journeymen as many as you need, all day long, for $ 15 bucks an hour OR LESS across most trades.

A few phone calls and I could turn out a full crew to start a commercial building project tomorrow. Shortage of fucking work in case you had not noticed.

[Carson]

It was an epiphany. It happened right about when he came positioned his moniter at the proper angle in his cubicle to watch porn in peace.

Definitely wasted college fund there.

Maybe I'm three years behind on my information, but there was a huge shortage of skilled construction workers. A case in point was a guy who advertised for a working masonry superintendent for $60,000 and a company truck; however, you had to pass a drug screening.

No one even applied.