Notre Dame -4.5 vs MSU

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha










hang on a sec...





























































hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

[M Club]

free money.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

It is -5 now. Lines moving toward the Domers.

http://reviewjournal.sportsdirectinc.co ... GEFOOTBALL

Good lord, the MSU moneyline is the best value of the week. Rock and Roll!

[Killian]

ND is going to lose by 21 or win by 14. They're verging 500 yards of offense a game. The 8 turnovers in the redzone have been the killer.

[Go Coogs']

I talked in detail of this game on my show last night. Right now, I'd hate to face Notre Dame consdering their meltdowns the last couple of weeks. It's like a pitcher facing a batter who is in an 0 for 24 slump. You don't want to face that guy. He's due...and so are the Domers.

ND wins by 10.

[Van]

Call me crazy, but I'd choose to face the guy who's mired in the 0-24 slump rather than some dude who's knocking the cover off the ball.

ND may win, but it's still better to catch them when they're in a cycle of losing rather than when they're running on all cylinders while playing confident, mistake-free ball. I passed on this one in the Pick 'Em contest, but considering Sparty's recent success against ND, the current form of both teams, and the fact that MSU is getting more than a FG? Yeah, I'd take Mgo and the points.

[Goober McTuber]

I talked in detail of this game on my show last night.

Gee, Skip Bayless, I'm sorry I missed that.

[Go Coogs']

Call me crazy, but I'd choose to face the guy who's mired in the 0-24 slump rather than some dude who's knocking the cover off the ball.

You're entitled to your opinions, Van, but I'd rather listen to my grandfather on this one. He had a short stint in the major leagues as a pitcher in the late 40s. He told me when I was a kid that he always hated facing the guy who was in a terrible slump as opposed to the guy who was on a sick streak. One guy was due and the other guy was bound to cool off.

Notre Dame is going to fix their mistakes this weekend and win.

[Killian]

Notre Dame is going to fix their mistakes this weekend and win.

They signed a new group of DBs?!?!

Their DB's played fine for 3 quarters and shit themselves on two drives. Also, their DB's tend to do ok against traditional offenses.

[Van]

Co'oo'gs', with all due respect to your grandfather, a basic tenet of sports betting in general and baseball managing specifically is to ride the current trend, not the eventual exception. On a percentage basis, you're far better off counting on something to continue rather than seeing it come to an abrupt end.

Put it this way...

You happen upon that 0-24 batter when he was merely 0-10. By your theory he's due, so you bet on him. Fourteen straight outs later, you're still waiting. In the meantime, the guy who rode the streak has won fourteen straight times.

If you're a baseball manager and you have a guy who's 0-24 against a certain pitcher, are you going to insert him into the lineup over another guy who's 12-24 off that same pitcher? For that matter, which of those two batters would you choose as a pinch-hitter against that pitcher? If you would choose the 0-24 guy, and you would do so on the basis of his being due, you would be in a very strict minority of managers. Do it enough times, and you would soon become an ex-baseball manager.

[Killian]

One key aspect you're leaving out of this analogy is who is hitting. If Tommy Aaron is 12-24, you would still rather pitch to him than Hank even if Hank is 0-24.

Now, ND may be more Tommy than Hank, that argument is still up for debate.

[M Club]

Notre Dame is going to fix their mistakes this weekend and win.

They signed a new group of DBs?!?!

Their DB's played fine for 3 quarters and shit themselves on two drives. Also, their DB's tend to do ok against traditional offenses.

all of michigan's big plays were horribly underthrown balls that the their receivers adjusted to only because they're either 5'6" midgets who came back through the DB's legs or a 6'3" power forward who boxed them out. have a feeling they'll do better against one of those old time passing offenses that rely on things like timing and routes.

[M Club]

One key aspect you're leaving out of this analogy is who is hitting. If Tommy Aaron is 12-24, you would still rather pitch to him than Hank even if Hank is 0-24.

Now, ND may be more Tommy than Hank, that argument is still up for debate.

the key thing you're leaving out of this analogy is that if the 0 for 24 guy strikes out, van will be all, "told you, bitch." if 0 for 24 guy gets a hit, then rumps will be the one saying, "told you, fat bitch," his wife and all.

[Van]

One key aspect you're leaving out of this analogy is who is hitting. If Tommy Aaron is 12-24, you would still rather pitch to him than Hank even if Hank is 0-24.

Now, ND may be more Tommy than Hank, that argument is still up for debate.

No, not really. Even HOF's can be 'owned' by certain pitchers, while seeming no-namers might have a career-long habit of killing those same pitchers. As a manager, you're still likely to go with the hot-as-hell 12-24 guy as your pinch-hitter over the moribund 0-24 guy, and as a professional gambler you're definitely plunking your money down on the 12-24 guy.

Where the correlation falls flat here is the fact that ND is nowhere close to being that 0-24 guy, nor is MSU that 12-24 guy. If there existed that much of a disparity, this pick would be an absolute no-brainer. As it stands, ND is more like the bad-luck hitter who keeps lining out, and MSU is the rookie with the gaudy minor league stats who just received the call-up to The Show. Yeah, they're 2-0, but who cares? Considering who they've played, their season hasn't even begun yet.

[Go Coogs']

If you're a baseball manager and you have a guy who's 0-24 against a certain pitcher, are you going to insert him into the lineup over another guy who's 12-24 off that same pitcher? For that matter, which of those two batters would you choose as a pinch-hitter against that pitcher? If you would choose the 0-24 guy, and you would do so on the basis of his being due, you would be in a very strict minority of managers. Do it enough times, and you would soon become an ex-baseball manager.

Your logic and numbers perspective makes all the sense in the world when trying to win a game. I'm just talking about what a major league baseball pitcher feels when facing the guy who is desparate and not the guy feeling on top of the world. 0-10 is the start of a slump, so I'm not sure what my grandfather considered a legit slump when telling me that story. I do remember him saying "0-24", so maybe his idea of a slump is somewhere in that neighborhood; I don't know.

My analogy is meant to illustrate ND's backs being against the wall and will do whatever they have to on Saturday to win that game. They are in panic mode my friend. Kinda like that guy who is 0-24. Just sayin'.

[Go Coogs']

One key aspect you're leaving out of this analogy is who is hitting. If Tommy Aaron is 12-24, you would still rather pitch to him than Hank even if Hank is 0-24.

Now, ND may be more Tommy than Hank, that argument is still up for debate.

the key thing you're leaving out of this analogy is that if the 0 for 24 guy strikes out, van will be all, "told you, bitch." if 0 for 24 guy gets a hit, then rumps will be the one saying, "told you, fat bitch," his wife and all.

Mother fucker :x

[Go Coogs']

Where the correlation falls flat here is the fact that ND is nowhere close to being that 0-24 guy, nor is MSU that 12-24 guy. If there existed that much of a disparity, this pick would be an absolute no-brainer. As it stands, ND is more like the bad-luck hitter who keeps lining out, and MSU is the rookie with the gaudy minor league stats who just received the call-up to The Show. Yeah, they're 2-0, but who cares? Considering who they've played, their season hasn't even begun yet.

This is where I whole-heartedly disagree with you. A BCS hopeful (independent) in college football who starts out 0-2 is the equivelent to the guy who is standing in the box 0-24. Disparity kicked in for ND when Roundtree caught that ball.

[Van]

Co'oo'gs', yep, I definitely buy the "panic mode" argument. Clearly ND has to have this game if their season is to amount to anything. That sort of urgency lends itself much better to success in a team sport than it does to a struggling batter who is pressing like a mofo to break out of a slump.

To your other point, I can tell you that a pitcher who knows he's gotten a batter out twenty-four straight times is certainly going to feel a lot more confident than he would when facing a batter who habitually goes yard against him. Again, continual success breeds confidence, and that 0-24 batter will be pressing like crazy, his mind filled with doubt.

"And that's just the way it is."



Btw, that chick's real name is Gizem Memic.

Gizem.

Indeed.

[Killian]

Of course certain pitchers own certain hitters, and vice versa. But in general, if some random pitcher had to get an out facing Hank Aaron or Tommy Aaron, he would chose to face Tommy Aaron 10 times out of 10, even if Tommy was 12 for his last 24 and Hank was 0 for his last 24.

[Van]

The opposing manager wouldn't, though, and it's the manager who makes that call. If a pitcher flat-out owned Hank to the tune of 0-24 while brother Tommy had ass-raped that pitcher his whole career, including recently, the smart manager is going to send Tommy to the plate. Along those same lines, that same pitcher would breathe a bigger sigh of relief upon seeing Hank grab a bat, rather than Tommy.

And yes, this has taken a turn to the thoroughly absurd.

[Go Coogs']

Of course certain pitchers own certain hitters, and vice versa. But in general, if some random pitcher had to get an out facing Hank Aaron or Tommy Aaron, he would chose to face Tommy Aaron 10 times out of 10, even if Tommy was 12 for his last 24 and Hank was 0 for his last 24.

You make a better point than I do. I was just talking about random batter facing random pitcher. My grandfather didn't delve into too many variables such as BABIP, OPS, and batter vs pitcher seeing how I was only 8 years old. He totally failed in making a point.

[M Club]

And yes, this has taken a turn to the thoroughly absurd.

for fucking real. don't know anyone in this forum who needed the sports analogy to better understand sports. could have just said the way notre dame's gone up and down the field against decent competition is probably much more sustainable than turning it over five times a game.

[M Club]

...seeing how I was only 8 years old. He totally failed in making a point.

yet 30 years later you're using it to make your case.

[Go Coogs']

...seeing how I was only 8 years old. He totally failed in making a point.

yet 30 years later you're using it to make your case.

I guess you missed the at the end there, toots.

[Killian]

The opposing manager wouldn't, though, and it's the manager who makes that call. If a pitcher flat-out owned Hank to the tune of 0-24 while brother Tommy had ass-raped that pitcher his whole career, including recently, the smart manager is going to send Tommy to the plate. Along those same lines, that same pitcher would breathe a bigger sigh of relief upon seeing Hank grab a bat, rather than Tommy.

And yes, this has taken a turn to the thoroughly absurd.

Did you even read my post?

[Van]

Yes, I not only read it, I directly addressed it with two specific scenarios/answers.

Anyway, I agree with M Club here. We're belaboring the obvious. Bottom line, while I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see ND win this game, recent form tells me that MSU plus the points is the wiser pick. That being said, I wasn't confident enough to include it among my Pick 'Em games.

[Killian]

Yeah, I didn't think so.

[PSUFAN]

Go Coogs'

ELIMINATED

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

My analogy is meant to illustrate ND's backs being against the wall and will do whatever they have to on Saturday to win that game. They are in panic mode my friend. Kinda like that guy who is 0-24. Just sayin'.

I get the thought process here, I just don't put much stock into it. Just because ND really really really wants to win the game doesn't mean a) MSU doesn't want to win it just as much and b) doesn't mean that's actually going to help them play better. Ultimately it will come down to talent, execution, and coaching. Advantage: Michigan State.

In any event, FWIW, I think MSU will have just as much "extra motivation" to win because they're 2-0, ranked, and nobody thinks they will beat their winless counterpart, despite all their recent success against them (especially at Notre Dame). If that doesn't fire you up and piss you off I don't know what will.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

Bottom line, while I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see ND win this game, recent form tells me that MSU plus the points is the wiser pick.

All I'm sayin'. Wouldn't be shocked to see ND win, but MSU getting 4.5 here is a great value pick...even better to take the Moneyline if you want to put real action on it. These games are always tight, even if ND wins, 4.5 is a bit much.

There is one thing working in ND's favor: Anytime I talk any kind of shit or "call my shot" it comes back to bite me in the ass somewhere in the vicinity of 100% of the time. So they've got that going for them.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

I'm dethawing my crow as I type this. That was a horrible fucking playcall by Dantonio to fake the FG at the end of the half. You either legitimately go for it (only needed 3 fucking yards!) or kick the FG and get the much needed points. Need points on the opening drive of the 2nd half or this could be over.

[Killian]

Just wait, Rees is a turnover machine.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

Props to Notre Dame! They won in the trenches. They are pretty decent when they don't turn it over 5 times. Kirk Cousins is overrated.

[Shoalzie]

The Irish tightened up on defense...no freak comebacks were going to happen yesterday. State isn't as good as last year although I thought having a senior QB would've helped them get through a rough patch in a game. Rees is a circus but having a guy like Woods to hand it off to and a future NFLer in Floyd to pitch it out to does help.

I thought Dantonio got too cute with the fake kick at the end of the first half when he had free point to take into halftime. That was an unnecessary risk and they could've used those 3 because when the 4th quarter came around, they would've been 2 scores down instead of 3. They settle for a field goal on that trip in the 4th to get it down to 15 and only by mistake did they get another crack at it following the muffed punt but Cousins throws up that pick to put the game on ice.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

I thought Dantonio got too cute with the fake kick at the end of the first half when he had free point to take into halftime.

That was an absolute abomination. 11 year olds playing NCAA football on XBox knew that was a horrendous decision. I wanted them to go for it, but not like that. Just fucking play-action it, like you had been doing down the field the entire drive. They couldn't stop it. I still don't think they would've won but going into the half down 4 instead of 11 would've been huge.

Dumb call, bad performance, props to ND, I'm an idiot. Out!

[Dinsdale]

I'm an idiot.

I thought MSU was a freebie in the PickEm.... buncha idiots up in here.

[Dinsdale]

Didn't see much of theAuburn game (we get so many games the last couple of seasons on basic cabe, it's awesome, but tough) -- I assume the defense loks the same as the last couple of weeks?

I wish Oregon had a shot at them this year... they'd hang 60 on them (and give up 59).

[M2]

Clemson's not bad, though.

Really ???

The week before they beat "Wofford" by 7 points.... at home.

The same "Wofford" team that beat Presbyterian the week before by just 7 points ...


Too funny