poptart wrote:If it comes down to a contest between Oblahblah and Romney, which I don't think it will, Romney will ROLL to victory.
In 2008, J. McLame (a very BAD rep. candidate) failed to get the base to come out for him and he still got 179 electoral votes.
McSame got 173 electoral votes. The states he won picked up a net total of six additional electoral votes as a result of the intervening census.
179 electoral votes doesn't get you remotely close to winning the Presidency. Both Gore and Kerry -- considered among the weakest major-party nominees in U.S. history by no less an expert than Whitey Wagon -- got considerably more than that.
And if you look at the particulars of the electoral map, Obama won a total of nine states and one Congressional District that W won in '04:
Florida (27)
Ohio (18)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)
Indiana (11)
Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
Nevada (6)
New Mexico (5)
NE-2 (1)
If we assume that Obama wins every state Kerry won in '04, and that the Republican nominee wins every state McSame won in '08, that leaves us, at random, with 1,024 possibilities.
If Obama wins Florida, game over. 512 possibilities for Obama.
If Obama loses Florida but wins Ohio, he can win the election by winning either North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Iowa, or Nevada, or by winning both New Mexico and NE-2. That's 253 of 256 possibilities for Obama.
If Obama loses Florida and Ohio but wins North Carolina, he wins the election by winning either Virginia, Indiana, or Colorado, or any two from among Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico. That's 120 of 128 possibilities for Obama.
If Obama loses Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina, but wins Virginia, he can win the election by also winning Indiana, or by winning any two from among Colorado, Iowa, Nevada or New Mexico. That's 54 of 64 possibilities for Obama.
If Obama loses Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia, but wins Indiana, he can win the election by also winning Colorado and any one state from among Iowa, Nevada or New Mexico, or by winning Iowa and Nevada plus either New Mexico or NE-2. That's 17 of 32 possibilities for Obama.
If Obama loses Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and Indiana, he can still win the election by winning Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico. That's 2 of 32 possibilities for Obama.
So if my math is correct, out of 1,024 random possibilities involving those jurisdictions, Obama wins 958 of them, and the Republican nominee wins 66. Not good odds for the Republican nominee.
But let's delve a little deeper, shall we?
Of the states in question, it's not exactly like they all were Republican strongholds, historically speaking, in Presidential elections. Only five -- North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Colorado and NE-2 -- are. That's a total of 49 electoral votes. The others -- Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico -- are typically battleground states, and they have a combined total of 65 electoral votes.
Moreover, among those battleground states, Bush won three of them in '04 -- Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico -- by an extremely narrow margin (20,000 votes
combined). Obama won them by a considerably more comfortable margin. If Obama can hold those three states, he then would only have to win one -- any one -- of the larger five states to win the election. And among the states that are traditionally Republican strongholds, there has been a significant demographic shift in three of those states -- North Carolina, Virginia and Colorado -- to the benefit of the Democratic Party.
On top of that, general consensus in '08 was that Arizona would have been in play had the Republican nominee been anyone but McSame. Given the heavy concentration of both seniors and Latinos in that state, I don't see anything that has changed that.
Not saying Obama can't lose, but it'll be an uphill battle for the Republican nominee to win. Of course, general consensus on this board was that Obama was going to lose in '08, even the day before the election.
The base won't want to come out for Romney, either, but what they will come out for - is to throw the current piece of shit out of office.
Barry has lost his base.
Hell, if even the young idiots no longer believe his bullshit, how can he expect to influence older independents to come out and vote for him?
Oh that's right, he can't, and the polls are showing this.
His support among independents has SERIOUSLY eroded.
They no longer buy his bullshit, either and Barry is just flat out ---> OVER.
If the dems are dumb enough to try to run him in '12, they'll absord an overwhelming defeat.
I don't see Romney beating Obama, based on the following reasons:
1. His base will be far from enthusiastic over voting for a Mormon.
2. Given that repeal of "Obamacare" is a
sine qua non for any Republican nominee, and that "Obamacare" is based on the Massachusetts program passed while Romney was governor, Obama will eat his lunch in the debates. Romney will come across looking like the empty suit he is.
3. Romney has no chance even of carrying his home state. That is, if his "home state" is the only state where he's held, or for that matter, run for, elected office. If, on the other hand, he now claims Utah as his home state, that's different.
4. I think Romney has at least one more "Who Let the Dogs Out" moment left in him.
5. I bring this up only because of the Republican penchant for making fun of Obama's name, but being named after something you wear on your hand to play baseball, or to protect your hand from heat while cooking, isn't exactly Presidential. Granted, his parents didn't exactly do him any favors in that regard, but when your name is Willard Mitt Romney and you want to be President, you ought to call yourself Will Romney, at least imho.
And fwiw, Obama has lost his base, not because he's gone off the far left deep end, but because he's bent over backward to appease the teabaggers. When push comes to shove, though, I think his base will turn out for him, only because they know the alternative is far worse.