M Dumb wrote:You mockingly asked how many of the 4008 women studied could have possibly been raped over a three-year period and I provided an answer using numbers from the abstract. Perhaps you were really asking what I thought rather than what the study said, which, uh, fucking stupid since what expertise do I or you actually have here other than I'm willing to defer to experts while you think it's a valid argument to merely guess.
I wasn't mocking.
I was asking YOU what YOU thought about 4008 random women over a 3 year period, because I had just gotten done illustrating to you how extremely high-side WACK the estimates of the OJoOG's were.
Look at their projections, digest them, and
really think about them for a moment.
They are saying that out of 4008 women, 680 rapes will occur among them over a three year period.
That's 17% of them (if it's one rape/one woman).
:?
Do you
really think that out of 10 women, almost 2 of them get raped during the course of three years?
I don't.
M Dumb wrote:How about you try to use something other than lol to explain to us why the numbers in the survey are inaccurate.
That's what I've been doing.
Read my first post on page 6 - as a response to Smackie's post near the bottom of page 5.
Some sources cite a 60-70% estimated unreported rate for rape - others sources estimate lower.
The OJoOG projections take the estimate up to
86% unreported - and that is an EXTREMELY high estimate.
Understand that every percentage point UP the unreported pct. goes jacks the TOTAL number of rapes up SIGNIFICANTLY.
I've said that I believe the perhaps 50% of rapes go unreported - and that means that I'm saying I think perhaps 200,000 rapes occur each year rather than the 95,000
official number.
If you go up to the silly (imo) 86%, rate, as the OJoOG does, that means that they are saying that
642,000 rapes occur in a year.
You can buy that if you want, but I sure don't.
That number is SO far from the 95,000 official number that I consider it a joke, because even if we use, for example, a HIGH 70% unreported rate, we get
just 316,000 rapes occurring in a year - and
that is a
lot.
M Dumb wrote:I was comparing the prevalence of rape to prostitution? :? I was actually just using prostitution to illustrate the fact that the official police data you either do or don't hold so dear depending on whom you're talking to doesn't accurately reflect the true scope of crime.
You were comparing how often the acts take place in relation to the data we have/don't have for both.
M Dumb wrote:Of course, your response to that was to point out people involved in prostitution don't make reports to the police.
That's right.
Prostitution participants don't report their crime, but people who are raped DO make reports, it's verified, and that is why we DO have some hard data to go by regarding rape numbers.
You shouldn't have tried to say prostitution numbers are murky the same as rape numbers are, because you K'dYOA.
poptart wrote:I said I don't believe it, there are no hard facts at all to back up that kind of a jacked up rate, but we do have hard facts telling us the the number is 95,000 a year
M Dumb wrote:How is this a hard fact if even you've said those numbers aren't accurate. Pure intelligence.
]
That IS the hard fact, goofball.
That's what's in the books, and I'm FINE with saying that 95,000 rapes occur in a year.
It's you and Van who are fighting vigorously to jack that number WAY up
Any number you or I think up
other than 95,000 is based on
some level of speculation.
My own
speculation is that it might be 200,000+ - but the hard data we have is 95,000 (in 2006).
M Dumb wrote:You're own unsubstantiated belief is that about 50% of rapes are going unreported yet now you want Van to prove his own numbers????
Yes, because Van didn't say his is a BELIEF.
Van: No one really has any idea how many rape ACTS take place because most of them go UNREPORTED.
He stated that as a fact (that more than 50% of rapes go unreported), and yet he has NO facts to back it up.
For all Van really
knows, the unreported rate might be... 40%, 36%... 23%... whatever...
I've openly said that my 200,000 number is my
belief.