Keep the asterisk handy for this year's NCAAF Championship

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

So, the first issue with the new format is we have teams that, no matter how perfect they play, are simply not ever going to be permitted to play in a 4-team championship playoff.

Which is no different from the BCS. It may be an issue, but it's not a unique one. Hell, it's not even unique to Marshall. They went 12-0 in 1999 and didn't sniff the MNC. Of course, their non-con schedule doesn't help their cause. Miami of OH, Rhode Island, Ohio and Akron isn't gonna cut it. Granted, I think all the recent realignment had something to do with that.

Unfortunately, for the Marshalls of the world, the best they can hope for is to continue to build their program in such a way that you become attractive to a P5 conference ala TCU. Or schedule a murderer's row of competition in the non-con, go undefeated, and hope for the best. Good luck with that one.

Second, you have an enormous SEC presence in the polls right now (four of the top five teams in the AP). I have heard several television sports commentators speak openly already about how there have to be at least two SEC teams as part of the four-team playoff, and perhaps as many as three. I think three may be a stretch, but two seems likely the way the polls are shaping up. So, that will leave two spots for the Big Ten, Big XII, ACC, PAC12 and Notre Dame (and no snub to East Carolina and Colorado State - but both would probably get one of those preseason asterisks, I think). If Florida State runs the table (@ Louisville; Virginia; @ Miami; Boston College; Florida; and probably Duke or Pitt in the ACC Championship game), and that seems likely, there will only be 1 spot left. How to you make that selection and not piss off the world?

We've still got about half a season of football to be played (including CCGs). That top 5 will see plenty of shake up between now and then.

The first poll released by the committee will be on October 28th. It will be interesting to see how that will compare and contrast with the AP and Coaches Polls. It might lend a little insight on what criteria they value. I still have a belief that they will put strong emphasis on conference champions which would make it tough for any one league to get more than one team in. If it does happen though, I just don't want to see two teams from the same division get in. There is no need to see repeat match ups like we did with LSU/Bama. It was already decided on the field once already. I want to see how the best from conference Y stacks up against the best from conference X, etc.

[Carson]

I remember three of The Final Four basketball teams being from the same conference not too long ago.

Shit happens.

[Bucmonkey]

Too much football left to be handwringing right now.

[Screw_Michigan]

Sorry, if that is your schedule, I don't care if you go undefeated. You don't deserve to be in consideration for the national championship.

That non-conf schedule makes LoSer U jealous.

[Killian]

I don't see the SEC getting two teams in.

The only possibly way I can see that is if Georgia wins out and beats an undefeated Ole Miss or Miss St in the championship game. As it stands, this is how the west will play out:

Ole Miss - @ LSU, Auburn, Miss St.
Miss St. - @ Bama, @ Ole Miss
Bama - @ LSU, Miss St, Auburn
Auburn - @ Ole Miss, @ Georgia, @ Alabama

Auburn, Alabama and Georgia all have 1 loss.

Auburn plays Georgia and Alabama.

If Auburn runs the table, Georgia and Alabama would have two losses.
If Auburn beats Georgia and loses to Alabama, Auburn and Georgia would have two losses.
If Auburn loses to Georgia and beats Alabama, Auburn and Alabama would have two losses.

If Alabama wins out, Auburn has 2 losses and Miss St. has one. Not sure who would go to the SEC championship, but one of Bama and MSU would be left out.
If Alabama beats Miss St but loses to Auburn, Auburn and Miss St have one loss and Bama has two and they can’t play for the SEC championship.
If Alabama loses to Miss St but beats Auburn, Auburn and Bama each have two losses and Miss St. has one.

Ole Miss and Mississippi State are both undefeated, but they play each other. There is one loss.

Ole Miss plays LSU (doesn’t affect LSU, just a tough place to play), Auburn and Miss St.
If Ole Miss wins out, Auburn has two losses and Miss St. has one loss, and Miss St doesn’t go to the SEC championship.
If Ole Miss beats Auburn and loses to Miss St, Ole Miss has one loss and Auburn has two, and Ole Miss doesn’t go to the SEC championship.
If Ole Miss loses to Auburn and beats Miss. St, Ole Miss and Miss St have one loss but Miss St. doesn’t go to the SEC championship.

Mississippi State plays @ Bama and @ Ole Miss.
If Miss St wins out, Bama has two losses and Ole Miss has one and Ole Miss doesn’t go to the SEC Championship.
If Miss St beats Bama but loses to Ole Miss, Bama has two losses and Miss St has one and doesn’t go to the SEC Championship.
If Miss St loses to Bama but beats Ole Miss, everyone has one loss but Ole Miss doesn’t go to the SEC Championship.

In short, a ton of football still has to be played. The scenarios up top don't take into account all the games, just the ones I thought were toughest. I think the SEC West will cannibalize it's self. And if not, only one team can make it out of that mess.

For ND, I think the worst case scenario is Georgia winning out and MSU beating OSU. If OSU beats MSU and wins the BIG, I don’t see them getting in over a one loss ND. Before the season they were talking about how OSU essentially had to go undefeated to have a chance at the playoff because their schedule was so poor. I don’t think they would take a one loss team when that one loss was at home to a mediocre ACC team.

At this point, I think it would be SEC champ, Pac 12 champ (assuming Oregon doesn't lose again), ACC champ (providing FSU goes undefeated) and BIG champ (assuming MSU wins out).

[Killian]

You presently have 10 conferences. I would advocate a 16 team tournament, with the 10 conference champions guaranteed entry and the other six spots being available for whoever the pollsters think is prettiest. Then you can throw that asterisk away.

The only issue you have there is when you have a down year in a conference like the ACC and a 3 loss Boston College scab dicks their way to the conference championship. That team likely wouldn't be ranked in the top 16, but they have an automatic birth because they played a shit schedule and won a dog and pony show conference championship game. Yet a Big 12 team that doesn't win their conference will be fighting an uphill battle, even with 1 loss. Maybe they would get in, maybe they wouldn't.

There is no perfect answer. I fell that 16 teams is too many and an 8 team may be too few. Perhaps the answer is a 14 team play off with the top 2 seeds getting a buy.

At least this is a step in the right direction.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

The solution to the problem is not to put undefeated Marshall teams in the four slots available. It is to give each conference champion a spot in the championship playoff. That makes the regular season games meaningful. It allows teams to play tough out of conference games and not worry about the polls. And, it crowns a true National Champion for FBS.

You presently have 10 conferences. I would advocate a 16 team tournament, with the 10 conference champions guaranteed entry and the other six spots being available for whoever the pollsters think is prettiest. Then you can throw that asterisk away.

I completely agree. I don't think there's any chance this happens, but that's what I would like to see.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

The only issue you have there is when you have a down year in a conference like the ACC and a 3 loss Boston College scab dicks their way to the conference championship. That team likely wouldn't be ranked in the top 16, but they have an automatic birth because they played a shit schedule and won a dog and pony show conference championship game. Yet a Big 12 team that doesn't win their conference will be fighting an uphill battle, even with 1 loss. Maybe they would get in, maybe they wouldn't.

I would think a 1-loss P5 team would be a shoo-in for an at-large if there are 6 spots available. It's not like there are a bunch of teams that usually finish the season with 1-loss.

Sometimes in the NFL a mediocre team wins a crappy division and makes a run in the playoffs. Either way, gotta let it play out on the field.

[Dinsdale]

Yeah, there will be 2 or 3 SEC teams in the playoff.

Sin,
2012 BCS Championship Game TV Ratings


Damnit, THINK PEOPLE!!!

Do you honestly believe that the selection committee (NCAA employees) are concerned about getting the best teams, or the most TVs tuned in?

Puh-leez.

Look at the teams that get good national TV ratings outside of their region (sup Notre Dame, tOSU, Oregon, USC, OU, Texas et al), and the ones with good records are going to the playoff. Let's not make this any more complicated than reality dictates.

[Dinsdale]

The Big 12 IS definitely a very good conference this year. I've had a lot of fun watching some of their games, but they're consuming each other faster than any of the other conferences.

Probably the most parity of any of the conferences, and they are eating each other more than the other P5s. But the same can be said of the SEC and the PAC - too many good teams that will kick your ass if you don't bring your A+ game. I think that in the PAC, SEC, and B12, the middling teams can have a great week and beat anybody on any given Saturday.

ND may be the odd team out. FSU beat them (even barely), but the fact that they're not in a big conference will probably be their undoing...

Well, they're half-ass in a big conference, but that conference is pretty darn weak.

I think the committee is hoping FSU loses, so they can snub the ACC altogether and get a B1G team and a B12 team in there (because I think it was decided before the season started that the SEC and PAC champs were going, no matter what, but let's go ahead and play the games anyway and see what happens).

[Killian]

Any 1A team that plays a 1AA or D2 team should be eliminated from any shot at the 1A national title, even f they have 11 wins vs 1A teams

You mean like USC did against Idaho a few years ago?

They've been 1A since 1997, I believe.

ND, USC and one other team (UCLA maybe?) are the only remaining 1A teams not to play a 1AA team.

[Screw_Michigan]

You're mistaken. USC and UCLA play Cal.

:yawn:

[Dinsdale]

That non-conf schedule makes LoSer U jealous.

Yeah, because in recent years, LSU hasn't played Oregon, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisky (and probably some I'm forgetting).

Crack on SEC OOC scheduling all you want, but LSU usually puts a good team on theirs (to go with 3 weathervanes).

Do you actually watch CFB?

[Left Seater]

win the second national championship of back to back national championships

Zero BCS titles says what?

Thought so.

That three peat SC fan was chatting up turned out to be a zero peat.

[Felix]

@ Southern Miss (3-4)
Rice (3-3)
@ UAB (4-3)
Western Kentucky (2-4)

that looks remarkably like a non-conference schedule for any SEC team......

[MiketheangrydrunkenCUfan]

@ Southern Miss (3-4)
Rice (3-3)
@ UAB (4-3)
Western Kentucky (2-4)

that looks remarkably like a non-conference schedule for any SEC team......

The hell it does. There are two away games and no FCS opponents.

[Shoalzie]

Maybe if there was an 8-team field...you give a small conference unbeaten a shot as the 8th seed. In a 4-team field...you pretty much have to be a member of the major crime families to get in unless you upset a big name team to go on unbeaten. This isn't a Boise State situation. The schedule doesn't warrant an argument for Marshall.