The REAL Top 25 as of tonight...

[Killian]

What a fucking joke.

[WolverineSteve]

New prediction....
Alabama
Sparty
Oregon
FSU

First out....ND

[Dinsdale]

Marshall, Marshall, Marshall?

What is 3/4ths of an SEC OOC schedule?

[Carson]

I just woke up to the news that bama is not in the top 4 and Auburn is. :twisted:

The committee members better put 24 hour guards on all the trees in their yards, cuz them Updykes are gonna break out the agent orange.

Meanwhile: Paul Finebaum still loves the taste of Nick Saban's cock.

[Left Seater]

Relax, lots of meat grinder games left to be played. There won't be 3 SEC West teams in the playoff.

This. Y'all are all worked up and we still are in Oct. :doh:

[Killian]

Relax, lots of meat grinder games left to be played. There won't be 3 SEC West teams in the playoff.

This. Y'all are all worked up and we still are in Oct. :doh:

It's not "this." Every single conference is represented before Notre Dame. You want to knock ND for not having a quality win, fine. Who is KSU's signature win? TCU? They play each other, so one will get knocked off. Michigan State gave Nebraska their only loss of the season. While I disagree that MSU should be ahead of ND, I can buy that. Alabama, no issue. Oregon I disagree with, but they beat MSU and their only loss is to a 1 loss AZ team. Alabama? Who is their quality win? And they lost to a 1 loss team. Ole Miss? They lost to a two loss team and looked like shit doing it. Top 3 I have no issue with.

I expected ND to be behind teams that I disagreed with, that's life. But this was agenda driven and doesn't lead me to believe that this panel will act as an impartial jury that judges each team on their merits. How can it when it has a failed coach from that school, one of his best friends, and the AD from their arch rival?

Notre Dame may not have a signature win (thanks, Stanford), but they also don't have any FCS teams or directional schools to beat up on.

This committee isn't trying to pair the 4 best teams in the finals, they are trying to pair the 4 best conference teams.

[L45B]

Relax, lots of meat grinder games left to be played.

Exactly, just to prove once again the yearly SEC swap 'em out ranking system.

One might claim these early rankings don't mean squat, but this is stacking the deck perfectly for the SEC to have at least two teams in the playoff.

All 3 of these teams (+Alabama) will "beat up on each other" but because of their placement in the rankings, they will not drop far.

It's exactly the same effect that happened last year when Missouri and Auburn got huge ranking boosts by beating previously overrated teams like Florida, Georgia and A&M. Just swap 'em out!

[Left Seater]

Agenda driven? Link us up to some proof.

You have a crap schedule. Right now you have beaten two teams with a winning record and one of them is Rice. You complain about not having directionals to beat up on yet you have Rice, Purdue, Northwestern and Navy. Those were all W as soon as you inked the contracts.

Further any handicap you might have is of your own doing. You choose not to belong to a conference which is fine. However when your schedule blows goats like this season you don't have a conference title to fall back on. Again you have no one to blame but yourselves.

All that said just win out. If you finish at 11-1 you will be right in the mix. There are plenty of losses for the top 9 teams still this season.

[Killian]

You're right Lefty, I don't have any proof that I can directly link to. Sitting athletic directors of major conferences completely won't look out for their own. It's also odd that 25% of the voting members have very strong ties to the Pac12 conference in Rice, Willingham and Haden. You could argue a fourth in Oliver Luck, considering where his son went to school.

Notre Dame has complete control over the teams on their schedule going into the tank. Scheduling Michigan, North Carolina and Stanford was them trying to schedule wins. As for Purdue, Navy, Northwestern and Rice, which of those teams is on the level of Florida Atlantic, South Alabama, UTM, Samford, Presbyterian, Jacksonville State or the Citadel? Of the teams you brought up, two are power 5 conference teams, one is an independent that beat two teams from power 5 conferences last year and a conference USA team that won 10 games last season including one over a power 5 conference team. Perhaps one of the murders row I mentioned did the same thing. The closest thing to a break ND had was the first game of the season. There's no November game against Presbyterian to rest up for Louisville or USC.

As for ND's schedule "blowing goats" and not having a "conference title to fall back on", what about KSU? TCU? I guess they have a conference title but no conference title game. How would you rate their schedules against ND? Do theirs blow goats as well?

You're right, if ND wins out they will be in the mix. If it comes down to a one loss ND team vs. almost any other 1 loss team from a power 5 conference, I will guarantee that ND will be the one left out. I guess at that point we can debate if it is correct or not.

[Killian]

You have a crap schedule.

According to Sagarin, ND's SOS is stronger than 4 teams ahead of them: FSU, KSU, TCU and MSU.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

There isn't a "conspiracy" against Notre Dame. There SHOULD be emphasis placed on conference championships, and it's not the committee's problem that ND chooses not to be in a conference. If ND wants to be independent, that's fine, but if they want to reap all the rewards that come with it, they also need to accept the potential bad that comes with it. The committee should not overhaul or omit criteria from its selection process because of one team.

That said, I think ND is a good team. If they win out, they have a very good chance to get in. Lots of football left, teams ahead of them will lose and conferences will eat each other up. But at this point it's pretty clear the committee rewards "good wins" more than they punish "bad losses," and the fact is ND currently has zero wins against teams in the top 25. Right now their best win is a close loss. And the almost-loss to a horrible UNC team certainly doesn't help matters when you don't have a signature win to offset it.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

FYI, I have heard the committee factors RPI into their rankings (the same metric the basketball committee uses).

RPI Top 10:

1 FSU
2 Miss St
3 Auburn
4 Alabama
5 Michigan St
6 Oregon
7 Ole Miss
8 Notre Dame
9 Georgia
10 Kansas St

http://realtimerpi.com/college_football ... kings.html

According to this, Bama and Mich St fan should have a bigger gripe than ND fan.

[Killian]

I didn't say there is a "conspiracy" against Notre Dame. If you want to factor in conference championships, ok. I'm assuming you mean CCG's because 4/5 conferences have one to actually determine who the conference champ is. In that case, why is KSU and TCU ranked ahead of ND? They won't get the benefit of an extra game to prove themselves to the committee. And if you use conference champs as one of the criteria, then we can assume that the committee will factor in a Pac12 or B1G champion with one loss who won their CCG over a one loss team from the SEC who either didn't win the CCG or even participate in it? I don't think so.

To me, it should be as simple as: "You've played X, you've beaten Y, and you lost to Z." Give teams credit for the teams they've beaten and penalize them for the teams they've lost to. SOS comes into play by not giving much credence to a win over someone like The Citadel or Presbyterian; and not penalizing a team as much for losing to Oregon as say, Baylor.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

The Big 12 crowns a champion, they just do it differently (and more appropriately, imo). I don't see that as being an issue.

And if you use conference champs as one of the criteria, then we can assume that the committee will factor in a Pac12 or B1G champion with one loss who won their CCG over a one loss team from the SEC who either didn't win the CCG or even participate in it? I don't think so.

Well, they will examine the entire resume for both teams in question, but yeah, I would suspect the 1-loss conference champ would have the advantage IF they put as much stock into conference champions as I think they will.

[Left Seater]

You have a crap schedule.

According to Sagarin, ND's SOS is stronger than 4 teams ahead of them: FSU, KSU, TCU and MSU.

And you lost to FSU. SOS doesn't matter much till the end of the season. And should only be used when ranking two teams at a time, ie a vs b.

What makes you think Oregon is a better loss than Baylor? That would be a pick me or within a few points on a neutral field. The home team would be favored if they went that route.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

It's October 29th and ND is ranked 10th.

Last year at this time, MSU had the same record and was ranked 22nd. They shot up to #4 before the Rose Bowl. And that was with a fairly underwhelming SOS.

Bottom line, just win your games and you'll be fine.

[Killian]

And you lost to FSU. SOS doesn't matter much till the end of the season. And should only be used when ranking two teams at a time, ie a vs b.

What makes you think Oregon is a better loss than Baylor? That would be a pick me or within a few points on a neutral field. The home team would be favored if they went that route.

So which one is it; ND is being punished because their schedule sucks or SOS doesn't matter until the end of the season?

Oregon #5 vs Baylor #13. That's why it's a better loss, for now. The committee in charge of selecting the playoff thinks that Oregon is 8 spots better than Baylor. That's pretty cut and dry.

[Killian]

I'd be willing to bet that if ND gets thru the rest of their schedule unscathed, they'll be one of the playoff teams. And they'll cost a more talented team a spot.

Really? They went down to Tallahasse and physically kicked the shit out of FSU on both sides of the ball. FSU played one of their best games and ND took them to the last play. Give me a fucking break about the "more talented team" bullshit.

[Killian]

They've won 23 games in a row, including every game this season. This isn't like Auburn winning the NC then falling off the map because their entire offense and defense "graduated". They have the reigning top player in college football, even if he is a sociopath.

But yes, they aren't very good.

[MuchoBulls]

You're right, if ND wins out they will be in the mix. If it comes down to a one loss ND team vs. almost any other 1 loss team from a power 5 conference, I will guarantee that ND will be the one left out. I guess at that point we can debate if it is correct or not.

Lots of football left and plenty of time for ND to rise in the ranking.

The SEC West will be eliminating themselves weekly for the rest of the season.

[Left Seater]

So which one is it; ND is being punished because their schedule sucks or SOS doesn't matter until the end of the season?

It is both actually. Right now for mid season polls the eye test is what matters. ND has beaten two teams with a winning record. You pointed out how FSU was ranked ahead of them with a worse schedule. Who cares. FSU beat them head to head. You also list KSU and WVU as having a worse schedule yet being ranked ahead of ND. Those two still have to play each other.

On top of that SOS is going to change throughout the season. If Navy, Louisville, USC and Az State all win out except for the ND match ups then NDs SOS will improve.

Just worry about winning out and then if you finish fifth in the polls we can revisit this.

[Left Seater]

I haven't seen anything out of FSU this year to indicate they're very good. They play in a shitstain conference and haven't done anything all year. Notre Dame let me down big-time by losing that game.

No doubt FSU is a good team, but they're not final 4 material right now.

So if FSU isn't good enough for the playoff today, then you must think ND was eliminated from contention by losing to FSU.

[Dinsdale]

Not that my opinion matters, because I'm not on the committee, but...

I'm not sure how I feel about rematches in the playoff (with it being 3 games). Oregon already beat MSU. FSU beat ND already. Heck, if West Virginia stomps everybody the rest of the way, we saw what they did against Bama.

And I'm still quite convinced their # criterion is how many eyes will be on TVs, and how much $$$ they can rake. That tells me a PAC team is going, and if tOSU wins out, guess what? Wouldn't be surprised to see them bend some logic to put ND in.

Seems like we're putting the NCAA in far too puritanical a light here.

They're appeasing SECBSH for now, then they'll review the 2012 TV ratings, and we'll see a West Coast team rise (Oregon has the best shot, since they're a little better known nationally, but if Arizona or ASU wins out, they'll suddenly be the best team in the country). They'll at least tease the ND fanbase with a boost. Look for either Sparty or tOSU to make a rise. Can't leave the B12 out, so TCU (covers both Texas and Christianity) will get more love.

This isn't rocket science -- it's economics.

Call me jaded, but we've seen a shorter version of this movie before.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

The SEC West will be trading spots in the top 5 weekly for the rest of the season.

Fixed.

[Killian]

TV money is why I expect ND to be there if they don't lose again.

I would typically agree with this, but I think you could put the 22-25th ranked teams in the playoff and college football fans would watch it because it is the first year of the playoff.

I'll be watching regardless.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

I actually don't even see the SEC getting two teams in unless we have 1-loss UGA as the SEC champ, and 1-loss Miss State who loses to Georgia in a close game in the CCG. I do not see two SEC West teams getting in under many scenarios. Teams like Oregon, TCU, Mich St, ND, etc., would have to go into the tank. I think the committee will do everything in their power to avoid conference rematches.

[Goober McTuber]

Alabama/Oregon/Mich State/Notre Dame...would that make the nation happy? :grin:

TCU/Oregon/Mich State/Notre Dame certainly would.

[Goober McTuber]

[Goober McTuber]

Well, tubby, I'm pretty sure you can't.

[Goober McTuber]

Confirmed.