California - on the brink

[Mikey]

Great news for all you California haters. The risk of "The Big One" just increased. So, it looks like we may be headed out to sea a lot sooner than we thought.

On the other hand, the risk of "The Not So Big One" apparently just decreased by 30%, so we have that going for us.

Risk of Big California Quake in Next 30 Years Rises

The risk of a major earthquake hitting California in the next 30 years has risen dramatically, scientists said Tuesday, using improved forecasting techniques.

Earthquakes are notoriously hard to predict and while seismic activity in California has stayed mild in the last century, experts expect a big one to strike some time in the future -- they just don't know when.

"The likelihood that California will experience a magnitude 8 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years has increased from about 4.7 percent... to about 7.0 percent," said the US Geological Survey.

A report, known as the Third Uniform California Earthquake rupture Forecast, acknowledges the complex nature of fault lines and uses new methods to account for future risk.

"The new likelihoods are due to the inclusion of possible multi-fault ruptures, where earthquakes are no longer confined to separate, individual faults, but can occasionally rupture multiple faults simultaneously," said lead author and USGS scientist Ned Field.

"This is a significant advancement in terms of representing a broader range of earthquakes throughout California's complex fault system."

While the risk of a big quake went up, that of a more moderate one actually declined since the last assessment in 2008.

"The estimated rate of earthquakes around magnitude 6.7, the size of the destructive 1994 Northridge earthquake, has gone down by about 30 percent. The expected frequency of such events statewide has dropped from an average of one per 4.8 years to about one per 6.3 years," said the report.

Tom Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center and a co-author of the study, added: "We know that tectonic forces are continually tightening the springs of the San Andreas fault system, making big quakes inevitable.

"The UCERF3 model provides our leaders and the public with improved information about what to expect so that we can better prepare."

http://news.discovery.com/earth/weather ... 150311.htm

For some reason I'm really just not much more worried about it than I was last week.

:?

[BSmack]

LTS with his thumb up his ass could be just as accurate as those guys.

[Left Seater]

For some reason I'm really just not much more worried about it than I was last week.

Amazing how we get comfortable with certain risks in our areas.

See also Florida with hurricanes, mid west with tornadoes, etc.

[Mikey]

For some reason I'm really just not much more worried about it than I was last week.

Amazing how we get comfortable with certain risks in our areas.

See also Florida with hurricanes, mid west with tornadoes, etc.

Don't get me wrong, I do take the risk seriously. And we are about as prepared as we can be (my wine racks are secured and near the floor).

But a change in the model that now puts the risk at 7.0% in 30 years instead of 4.7% doesn't mean that the actual risk has changed. The ongoing drought has me more concerned than the possibility of an earthquake.

A major earthquake *can* be a lot more destructive than a tornado or hurricane (more than Katrina?) but they also are a lot less frequent. I've lived in California (both the Bay Area and SoCal) for over 50 years and could probably count on two hands the number of times I've actually felt the ground shake. Never been located where there was any damage, though my mom's town home in Cupertino (actually just the contents) sustained some damage in the Loma Prieta quake (1989). The Northridge quake woke me up, but I was many miles from any damage.

[Diego in Seattle]

The Northridge quake woke me up, but I was many miles from any damage.

You mean you weren't next to the epicenter??

-Moving Fail

[Mikey]

The Northridge quake woke me up, but I was many miles from any damage.

You mean you weren't next to the epicenter??

-Moving Fail

No, I was in San Diego.

No...I really WAS in San Diego.

[Wolfman]

This is scary. I agree with Bri on this one too. At least we can see hurricanes coming and have time to act if it seems headed our way.

[Jay in Phoenix]

Don't get me wrong, I do take the risk seriously. And we are about as prepared as we can be (my wine racks are secured and near the floor).

But a change in the model that now puts the risk at 7.0% in 30 years instead of 4.7% doesn't mean that the actual risk has changed. The ongoing drought has me more concerned than the possibility of an earthquake.

A major earthquake *can* be a lot more destructive than a tornado or hurricane (more than Katrina?) but they also are a lot less frequent. I've lived in California (both the Bay Area and SoCal) for over 50 years and could probably count on two hands the number of times I've actually felt the ground shake. Never been located where there was any damage, though my mom's town home in Cupertino (actually just the contents) sustained some damage in the Loma Prieta quake (1989). The Northridge quake woke me up, but I was many miles from any damage.

Well, certainly this Summer, the popcorn will be flowing for "the big one."

[Moving Sale]

I was at the game during world series quake.
I was in some slut's house in Simi Valley during Northridge quake.
And...
I was in Paso on way to "Brett farve dad died" raiders game during that quake.
Felt them all. Trippy shit.

[Mikey]

I was at the game during world series quake.

In all seriousness - that couldn't have been a very good feeling - especially trapped in the midst of thousands of panicky people...

There was a documentary on ESPN last year called The Day the Series Stopped. Not all that great but it brought back some memories. One of the people they interviewed was a maintenance worker at Candlestone at the time. They had sent him up one of the light towers to clear some kind of plastic trash that had gotten caught up there when the quake hit. I guess he was on the ladder near the top. He said that the thing was swaying like 20 feet back and forth. Over the stands - over the parking lot. He pretty much knew he was dead. Must have been quite a ride.

[Goober McTuber]

I was at the game during world series quake.

In all seriousness - that couldn't have been a very good feeling - especially trapped in the midst of thousands of panicky people...

Especially when you only come up to their belt buckles.

[Mikey]

At about 1:10 you'll see some cars disappear.

[Moving Sale]

I was in parking lot during quake and told the guy on the light pole story for years. Nobody believed it, till now. That was a great 30-30, I still have the ticket someplace.

[Moving Sale]

The parking lot was literally rolling with the shock waves. You could see the line of cars rising and falling a least a few feet. Scary shit.

[The Seer]

Northridge was moderate? I get that it wasn't The Big One, but moderate?

The blind thrust earthquake had a moment magnitude (Mw) of 6.7, which produced ground acceleration that were the highest ever instrumentally recorded in an urban area in North America,[5] measuring 1.8g (16.7 m/s2)[6] with strong ground motion felt as far away as Las Vegas, Nevada, about 220 miles (360 km) from the epicenter. The peak ground velocity in this earthquake at the Rinaldi Receiving station was 183 cm/s[7] (4.09 mph or 6.59 km/h), the fastest peak ground velocity ever recorded. In addition, two 6.0 Mw aftershocks occurred, the first about one minute after the initial event and the second approximately 11 hours later, the strongest of several thousand aftershocks in all.[8] The death toll was 57, with more than 5,000 injured. In addition, earthquake-caused property damage was estimated to be more than $20 billion, making it one of the costliest natural disasters in U.S. history.[9]

I was around for both the Sylmar '71 & Northridge quakes. Sylmar was originally measured at 6.6 and there is no friggen way Northridge was ONLY 6.7.

[Derron]

I was in some slut's house in Simi Valley during Northridge quake.

Did you swallow a big load from his huge black cock ??

[Jay in Phoenix]

I was at the game during world series quake.
I was in some slut's house in Simi Valley during Northridge quake.
And...
I was in Paso on way to "Brett farve dad died" raiders game during that quake.
Felt them all. Trippy shit.

MS, we had one of our news anchors attending the game with a photographer as part of a sports package and they were getting ready for a stand-up in the seats, when the quake hit. He said the seats and stadium were "rolling or waving" and it was completely surreal. We continued to cover the event live for the rest of the day and evening and they produced some amazing video. I was in SF about ten years ago at the Troll stop for Luther, CM and company when we had a very modest quake Saturday night, not too long after the Cubs/Giants game. I had never experienced a quake before, and though it was not too big a deal, it was very strange. Hard to imagine living in an area prone to this sort of periodic event, and especially when the San Andreas finally does give it up for real.

[Diego in Seattle]

Meh. Nothing can be done to prevent them, so why worry about it?

[Diego in Seattle]

Meh. Nothing can be done to prevent them, so why worry about it?

Kinda like Glowball Warming, eh?

[Moving Sale]

He said the seats and stadium were "rolling or waving" and it was completely surreal. We continued to cover the event live for the rest of the day and evening and they produced some amazing video. I was in SF about ten years ago at the Troll stop for Luther, CM and company when we had a very modest quake Saturday night, not too long after the Cubs/Giants game. I had never experienced a quake before, and though it was not too big a deal, it was very strange. Hard to imagine living in an area prone to this sort of periodic event, and especially when the San Andreas finally does give it up for real.

It was a scene man. Got separated from my ride. Took an nbc press bus back to the city. Hung out at embarcadero till dawn. Took the first (and only I think) BART across the pond to Oakland to find my ride. Found them just in time to jump in the car back to SLO... Hungover as hell.

[Atomic Punk]

I was at my place off Hwy 85 and El Camino Real on the tennis courts in Mtn. View when it hit. At first you can hear a loud noise like it was a freight train rolling through, but there aren't any other than the commuter that parallels the 101. Then you feel a rolling wave and I could hear cars brakes... then you see the buildings rocking and hear screaming and glass breaking.

After a a minute or so, it was calm. The lady on the next court ran over to me and held me saying we're supposed to hold onto something in an earthquake. I said there is the net pole, but this is a tennis court. After it stopped she picked up her stuff and went back to her apartment. I kept playing for about another 45 minutes and people walked by to see if I checked out the damage to my place yet. I said "No, whatever has happened is done, and I might as well keep playing."

"I'd keep playing. The heavy stuff isn't coming down for awhile."

Went back to the place and couldn't open the door as it was jammed. Went out to the fence and jumped over and went through the sliding glass door thinking there would be major damage. The only damage was my Marshall amp face planted and everything else was undisturbed. (The amp worked fine). The neighbor across the way had serious damage with all broken glass everywhere.

Phones were down, and then watched Al Michaels talking during the World Series broadcast that interrupted the game. The 880 had a serious break near Cupertino and of course, the Bay Bridge had the structural failure. Sat there watching my new IndyFrisco-type TV and watched the carnage.

Good times!