T1B

Dinsdale wrote:but usually home teams coming off a bye week are a safe bet to cover.

Not sure.

However... teams that had a bye are 40-10 (80%)in their first playoff game 'straight up'. The cover number probably drops to about 65-70%.

I don't like Washington's chances.

i loved the completely scientific mike and mike rankings they put out this morning. :sarcasm: they had the skins making the super bowl!

in case you missed it, they ranked all the remaining 8 teams (that feels good to say after 12 years of mediocrity) in terms of head coach, RB, QB, and D.

they gave the skins D some respect by ranking them third, but still nobody is talking about how the skins D has performed over the last 6 weeks. in terms of points given up and rush yards given up, they are #1 in the league-

less than 82 rush yds a game
12 points a game given up

12 points per game is identical to chicago even if you throw out the minnesota game. (149 yds rushing and 34 points given up)

i think this is the most overlooked key to the game, especially given that alexander is automatically expected to perform like he has vs the division, so it would seem.

at least they smartly ranked gibbs the #2 coach behind belichick.

heres one more interesting (to some anyway) stat-
how the skins and seahawks performed vs each others division, as they both played each others division.

Rushing Yards vs NFC East opponents
Seahawks: 103.5 ypg (yards per game)
Redskins: 116.3 ypg

Rushing Yards vs NFC West opponents
Seahawks: 168.2 ypg
Redskins: 177.8 ypg


Rushing Yards Allowed vs NFC East opponents
Seahawks: 133 ypg
Redskins: 116.8 ypg

Rushing Yards Allowed vs NFC West opponents
Seahawks: 80.8 ypg
Redskins: 92.5 ypg

hawks did better in the last category. still, its a bit surprising. i could argue that the last stat is skewed because the skins took out their starters before frank gore ripped off a 72 yard run late in the game with the skins winning 52-10. he doubled their rush yards on one run, otherwise the skins would have an edge there as well. (in case anyone is wondering, i checked and the hawks didnt have a similar situation where they gave up a big late run with a big lead or a 'garbage time' run.)

Yeah, the Skins win this one on paper (:roll:). When the groundscrew at Seahawk Stadium installs a paper field, let me know.

I don't like it, but forced to choose, I'd take Seattle -8.5(sorry, I'm addicted to hooked spreads). I honestly believe the Skins have NO CHANCE...and trust me, I don't say a team has "no chance" very often...matter of fact, the last team that I said had "no chance" in a game was the Longhorns in the Rose Bowl...phooey.

Zyclone wrote:48 til the rainey city I be!

Seattle hasn't EVEN been getting the rain. They've missed out on most of the Pineapple Express this time around.

Oh, and you DO realize that it rains more where you live than it does in Seattle, right? (oh, shit, us U&Lers are supposed to keep that a secret...sorry)

Dinsdale wrote:Yeah, the Skins win this one on paper (:roll:). When the groundscrew at Seahawk Stadium installs a paper field, let me know.

well forgive me for discussing a game on a sports message board.

I don't like it, but forced to choose, I'd take Seattle -8.5(sorry, I'm addicted to hooked spreads). I honestly believe the Skins have NO CHANCE...and trust me, I don't say a team has "no chance" very often...matter of fact, the last team that I said had "no chance" in a game was the Longhorns in the Rose Bowl...phooey.

ok, but i am looking for 'why'. seattle is definitely a heavy favorite, but i want to know why you feel they will cover against the skins and their D.

G.O. wrote: well forgive me for discussing a game on a sports message board.

Uhm...wasn't I kinda doing the same thing?

ok, but i am looking for 'why'. seattle is definitely a heavy favorite, but i want to know why you feel they will cover against the skins and their D.

Fair-a-freaking-nuff.

How about that statistically(here we go with the "on-paper" thing) Tampa's and Seattle's defensive numbers for the season were pretty darn close, bith near the top in most categories, and the Skins managed to put up all of 120-something yards on the Bucs. And what no one has mentioned, in regards to the game anyway, that it's quite possibly going to be played in the midst of a maritime storm. Don't even try and tell me that Gibbs is more adept than Holmgren at adjusting his gameplan to match these conditions. Seattle's playing in their house, in their weather( although other side of the coin, PAC10Fan seems to remember Brunell playing a game or two in Seattle) . This game is going to be played Seattle's way, at their pace. The team that sets the tempo usually wins the game. Add to that, in the later part of the season, Seattle was getting better LB play than were the Skins, although both linebacking crews were excellent this year. I think I've already said that I think the LBs of both teams will decide who wins and loses this game -- Seattle because they need the short pass paatterns to set up their running game that they depend so heavily on (not to mention that their QB can't hit the broad side of a barn on the deep stuff), and Seattle needs their LBs to contain...whatever it is that Washington has been trying to do on offense.

But really, bottom line -- the Skins are rolling out a Husky QB into a big game -- has "massive choke" written alllll over it.

Hens by a bunch...and I HATE the Chickens (even though they've played in every NFL game I've ever been to).

Dinsdale wrote:

G.O. wrote: well forgive me for discussing a game on a sports message board.

Uhm...wasn't I kinda doing the same thing?

no, you were criticizing me for daring to post stats and thoughts on the game.

ok, but i am looking for 'why'. seattle is definitely a heavy favorite, but i want to know why you feel they will cover against the skins and their D.

Fair-a-freaking-nuff.

How about that statistically(here we go with the "on-paper" thing) Tampa's and Seattle's defensive numbers for the season were pretty darn close, bith near the top in most categories, and the Skins managed to put up all of 120-something yards on the Bucs. And what no one has mentioned, in regards to the game anyway, that it's quite possibly going to be played in the midst of a maritime storm. Don't even try and tell me that Gibbs is more adept than Holmgren at adjusting his gameplan to match these conditions. Seattle's playing in their house, in their weather( although other side of the coin, PAC10Fan seems to remember Brunell playing a game or two in Seattle) . This game is going to be played Seattle's way, at their pace. The team that sets the tempo usually wins the game. Add to that, in the later part of the season, Seattle was getting better LB play than were the Skins, although both linebacking crews were excellent this year. I think I've already said that I think the LBs of both teams will decide who wins and loses this game -- Seattle because they need the short pass paatterns to set up their running game that they depend so heavily on (not to mention that their QB can't hit the broad side of a barn on the deep stuff), and Seattle needs their LBs to contain...whatever it is that Washington has been trying to do on offense.

But really, bottom line -- the Skins are rolling out a Husky QB into a big game -- has "massive choke" written alllll over it.

Hens by a bunch...and I HATE the Chickens (even though they've played in every NFL game I've ever been to).

ok. fair freakin enough.

but seattle being 'pretty darn close' statistically is a stretch. TB finished #1 overall, seattle finished 17th- even with the horrible offenses they played. you cant even mention these 2 D's in the same sentence.

why in the hell would a coach who has been to 4 super bowls and won 3 not be able to adjust his game plan as far as weather is concerned?? esp when you just said it rains more here than in seattle. how did you reach that conclusion? the skins play and practice outside- gibbs has even insisted that the team NOT build an indoor practice bubble as long as he is coach.

as far as seattle getting better linebacking play...while i havent seen much of seattle, i can say that the skins linebackers- lavar and marcus (both of whom picked off passes last week)- have been a huge part of the best D in the league since december. if seattle has some good linebackers close to their caliber, it would be news to me. i'm not saying they suck, but i cant see how they are 'better'.

well, i think i'm starting to see why you havent attempted to provide anything other than 'the seahawks will win'.

sorry i asked.

i guess what i'm getting at is when i try to figure out why vegas puts the skins at +9.5 or whatever, and i hear keith olberman and eric whats his name saying the skins dont 'have a prayer', i want to know why they think that. all i keep hearing is 'they put up 120 yards of offense last week'.

is that really it?

G.O. wrote:no, you were criticizing me for daring to post stats and thoughts on the game.

Why thank you...thank you for explaining my intent to me, tard.

What I was doing was reiterating the whole "that's why they play the games" adage.

but seattle being 'pretty darn close' statistically is a stretch. TB finished #1 overall, seattle finished 17th

I hate to be the one to break this to you, but defense is ultimately judged by how many points they gave up, not how many yards. The scoreboard at every stadium I've ever been to prominantly displays the score in points, and I'm pretty fucking sure that the NFL recognizes the team that scores more points during the game as the official winner, not which team gained the most yards.

Since you used stats to figure all this out, maybe, just fucking maybe, you should have thought your theory on total yardge out a little more -- while Seattle may have given up a few more yards this year, your retarded ass complete failed to factor in how Seattle responded in the red zone..which was to get the #2 rank in the NFL...and newsflash, Washington wasn't #1.

Oh, and both Seattle and Washington's defenses gave up 4.9 yards per play...identical average.

And this coming from Skinsfan is balled-up-in-the-fetal-position-funny...by GO's scoring system, Tampa is preparing for its matchup with Seattle this weekend. But manipulate the stats however you like in order to say "we're #1!!!"

you cant even mention these 2 D's in the same sentence.

Although Seattle's defense was better stastically, they were pretty darn close.

why in the hell would a coach who has been to 4 super bowls and won 3 not be able to adjust his game plan as far as weather is concerned??

Didn't say he couldn't -- I said he was overmatched in this catagory, since Holmgren like lives there, and all. And probably has more severe-weather games under his belt.

esp when you just said it rains more here than in seattle.

Not this weekend, it doesn't(maybe, anyway). I guess "maritime storm" was too fancy a term for you.

how did you reach that conclusion?

It was this novel concept known as "common sense." You should give it a whirl sometime.

the skins play and practice outside

Not in Seattle every week, they don't.

as far as seattle getting better linebacking play...while i havent seen much of seattle

Whoawhoawhoa...back the truck the fuck up...

You're waxing your expertise on the subject, giving your concise reasons why the Skins are due for the upset of the year, and you"haven't seen much of Seattle this year?"

Please fucking tell me I didn't just read that? You looked at a stat sheet, and you have it allll figured out?

You flaming fucking tard. NOW would be a good time to duck and run from this one.

if seattle has some good linebackers close to their caliber, it would be news to me.

When you were being statsdork, maybe you should have looked up who will most likely win the ROY voting...tard. There's this guy who absolutely DOMINATED the second half of the season...oh, fuck...why waste the keystrokes on a tard?

i'm not saying they suck

At least you've done a little to mitigate the damages here.

well, i think i'm starting to see why you havent attempted to provide anything other than 'the seahawks will win'.

Yeah, I should have skewed some stats to try and make my argument.


sorry i asked.

i guess what i'm getting at is when i try to figure out why vegas puts the skins at +9.5 or whatever, and i hear keith olberman and eric whats his name saying the skins dont 'have a prayer', i want to know why they think that. all i keep hearing is 'they put up 120 yards of offense last week'.

is that really it?

While you keep referring to the NFC West, you seem to have lost sight that the NFC East was nothing to brag about, either. Go ahead and keep thinking you have it all figured out, but everyone BUT you is going to have the last laugh. And yes, the Skins throwing up 120 yards on a team with similar defensive numbers to Seattle has a large bearing on this...but I'm SURE their output will improve in severe weather...really.

Dinsdale wrote:

G.O. wrote:no, you were criticizing me for daring to post stats and thoughts on the game.

Why thank you...thank you for explaining my intent to me, tard.

What I was doing was reiterating the whole "that's why they play the games" adage.

which is why i said this "well forgive me for discussing a game on a sports message board."

got it yet???




first, its 'seattles LB's are playing better than the skins' then its 'gibbs cant adjust to the weather"...dude, you cant even get the freakin weather right.

http://www.komotv.com/stories/41209.htm

"Wednesday marked the 24th straight day of measurable rain in Seattle, tying it for the third-longest streak ever."

you are out of your mind.

seriously- for a guy who doesnt even like the team, all you've done is spout off like i took a dump in your wheaties.

what the hell is wrong with you? what the fuck did i do to you?

nevermind- i remember. you tried to run your fat yap about shawn alexanders TD's and you ended up looking like an idiot and you've been trying to save face.

i already told you- nobody freaking cares. its not an afc west game, so nobody is even reading this.

relax.


BTW- ROY will go to mr. merriman. unless you'd like to make a friendly wager on that since you said tatupu would 'probably' get it.

genius prediction.

G.O. wrote: "Wednesday marked the 24th straight day of measurable rain in Seattle, tying it for the third-longest streak ever."

And this has...what exactly yo do with any of my statements?

Link to where I didn't get the weather right? (FYI tard, I'm not sure how you figured I could possibly be wrong about the weather, since I implied that it might rain, and it might not, and it might be a heavy winter storm, and it might not...I'd say I had a 100% probability of getting it right with those statements, tard).

I said the game came down to linebacker play. I also said weather would be a factor (in a fucking football game...in January....HOLD THE FUCKING PRESSES...I THINK DINS MIGHT BE ON TO SOMETHING HERE!!!!!). Would you care to explain where either of these statements contradict one another, or are you just going to go the BeSmacked route, say "you're spinning," and dance around your phantom BODE?

As far as what you did to me...absolutely nothing. First, you posted stats. I repectfully disagreed, and explained why. But, since my explaination didn't cater to your obviously-homeresque needs, you took it a step farther. And frankly, you haven't learned the SC/T1B lesson that when you're stepping to me, you should have your shit togother, or you'll be exposed for the fraud you are...like in this example, for instance -- "I haven't seen much of Seattle this year."

And as far as me not liking the team...kind of speaks to objectivity, doesn't it Mr. Redskin's Defense was #1, Seattle Sucks?

Dinsdale wrote:

G.O. wrote: "Wednesday marked the 24th straight day of measurable rain in Seattle, tying it for the third-longest streak ever."

And this has...what exactly yo do with any of my statements?

Link to where I didn't get the weather right?

"Seattle hasn't EVEN been getting the rain."

previous page.

what about my wager 2 posts up? wanna bet?

G.O. wrote:
"Seattle hasn't EVEN been getting the rain."

OK, it looks like ssllooww ttyyppiinngg time --

Since I typed that, one would assume that I had some insight as to how much rain Seattle is or isn't getting, OBVIOUSLY making it a subjective statement.

There's 2 major cities in the Northwest. I live in the other one, for 38 years now. While that article you posted (I see those reports live, thank you very much) states that Seattle has been getting many days with .25-.5 inches of rain, we've seen double that around here, for the most part. Much of the area is underwater, whereas very little of Seattle is...dumbass. Pretty fucking funny that "you haven't seen much of Seattle," yet you think you're qulified to comment on not only their linebackers, but the freaking weather? How many fucking times did your mother drop you on your head as an infant, anyway (bonus points for telling us how many of those drops were intentional, Statsman)?

If you weren't such a self-absorbed douche, you probably would have noticed the reference to the Pineapple Express (it's a West Coast thing), and figured that the person posting it must have known a great deal more about the weather in the Great Northwest than you do...but, you just had to try and divert attention away from yourself at that point, didn't you, rather than let me continue to point out the many flaws in your "logic."

you said tatupu would 'probably' get it.

No, I said a guy who "dominated the second half of the season." You filled in the blank and figured out I was talking about Tatupu. For this, I will now pat myself on the back for being a good educator, since you didn't even know who he was a few minutes ago...even though you now have the ROY all figured out.

I would have to care a whoooole bunch more about ROY than I currently do to consider betting on something so trivial. I do find it extremely telling that you brought up a wager over the insignificant ROY award (a very weak diversionary tactic on your part-btw), yet haven't brought up wagering on the game that you've so boldly called your shot on. Funny stuff.

2 things before i take off for the day.

first, if you werent talking about tatupu, why dont you just say who you were talking about?

if seattle has some good linebackers close to their caliber, it would be news to me.

When you were being statsdork, maybe you should have looked up who will most likely win the ROY voting...tard. There's this guy who absolutely DOMINATED the second half of the season...oh, fuck...why waste the keystrokes on a tard?

second, if i am unqualified to comment on seattle, what makes you qualified to chime in with your 'expertise' on the skins?

based on your own ciriteria, you must have seen every game, or you would have kept your mouth shut.

G.O. wrote: second, if i am unqualified to comment on seattle, what makes you qualified to chime in with your 'expertise' on the skins?

Two things -- First, I'm not going to break off with "I didn't really see Washington this year."

Second, I'm not fucking retarded.

Jeebus, what the fuck other ROY candidate at LB did Seattle have this year...wait, you didn't even know Tatutpu played there this year, so go ahead and don't answer that.

Holy fuck, you're dense.

And just for the sake of posting this pic, I'll reiterate --

It hasn't EVEN been raining in Seattle --

Dinsdale wrote:I honestly believe the Skins have NO CHANCE...and trust me, I don't say a team has "no chance" very often...matter of fact, the last team that I said had "no chance" in a game was the Longhorns in the Rose Bowl...phooey.

Who's your Daddy?

For someone who doesn't say a team has "no chance" very often, you've now done it twice in less than two weeks.

I'm liking the skins chances even more now that Dins has placed his kiss of death upon the Hags.

Dinsdale wrote:

G.O. wrote: second, if i am unqualified to comment on seattle, what makes you qualified to chime in with your 'expertise' on the skins?

Two things -- First, I'm not going to break off with "I didn't really see Washington this year."

Second, I'm not fucking retarded.

Jeebus, what the fuck other ROY candidate at LB did Seattle have this year...wait, you didn't even know Tatutpu played there this year, so go ahead and don't answer that.

Holy fuck, you're dense.

backtrack much?

way to put your foot in your mouth, ass.

BWHAAAAAAAAHHHHHAAAAAAA!!!!..'tatupu will most likely win ROY award'!

how dare you call anyone dense, you friggin rock!


and you still didnt answer my question- what qualifies you to talk about the skins? you've seen every NFL game, right? RIGHT???



BBBBBWWWWWWHHHHHHAAAAA!!!!!!!!

ass.

Paul. Shut the fuck up.

I'll let you know when it's your turn.

G.O. wrote: backtrack much?

You. Did. NOT. Just. Type. That.

Nuh-uh. I refuse to believe it.

way to put your foot in your mouth, ass.

Why don't you go ahead and explain this for those of us that don't speak Incoherentese.

tatupu will most likely win ROY award'!

Most likely, yes. Unless the voters are as ignorant as you. It should be a two-horse race between Merriman and that guy you'd never heard of until I told you about him, though. Bet the farm on it.

how dare you call anyone dense, you friggin rock!

Because I'm a great deal more intelligent and insightful than yourself, with football knowledge beyond that of a stat sheet. Also, I can outsmack anyone here, anytime I'm so inclined, which means I can call anybody anything I want, whenever I want. The man with the gold makes the rules.

and you still didnt answer my question- what qualifies you to talk about the skins?

I did answer your question, tard. Sorry if it wasn't the answer you wanted to hear.

you've seen every NFL game, right? RIGHT???

No, of course not. I doubt there's very many people who did see every game in its entirety. I saw Washington play several times, when their offense didn't bore me to sleep.

BBBBBWWWWWWHHHHHHAAAAA!!!!!!!!

ass.

I'm not the one who made the prediction that the Skins were going to go into the house of a team with a higher-ranked defense, the #1 offense in the entire league, in weather conditions that favor the home team, and then try to back my (fucking stupid) claims by telling the world "I didn't see much of Seattle this year."

I didn't do that because that's what fucking morons do.

If you want to homer for your team, fine and dandy. That much is expected of a fan. But to try and back up your homer-claim with inaccurate statistics, question a Northwesterner's knowledge of the weather in the Northwest, claim two near-identical defenses don't belong on the same page, and discuss why the oddsmakers don't know what they're talking about, while you do, even though you admit to having no knowledge of the other team.

Dipshit.

#1- you have seen 'several' skins games. too bad that does not make you qualified to discuss them by your own standards. but if we didnt already know you were not qualified to discuss the NFL, click the link....

http://www.cbc.ca/story/sports/national ... 60104.html

DUMB
ASS

Dinsdale wrote:It should be a two-horse race between Merriman and that guy you'd never heard of until I told you about him, though. Bet the farm on it.

So, your game is so fucking empty, that this is what you're going to hang your hat on?

Sad.

Awesome ROY prediction, dude. Too bad you didn't even know who all of the major contestants were until I told you.

G.O. wrote:that does not make you qualified to discuss them by your own standards.

Link to where I posted these "standards?"

I figure somebody should have at least met THEIR OWN FUCKING STANDARDS for having watched a team.

Although don't get me wrong -- I STILL don't blame you for using diversionary tactics. I probably would have done the same in your shoes, except there's no chance I would let my alligator mouth outrun my tadpole ass so badly that I was ever in your shoes.

YOU were the one who admitted to not having seen the Chickens, after making all of these observations and bold predictions. Let's keep THAT right the fuck straight.

Not me. You.

Go ahead and change the subject all you like. YOU said you hadn't seen the Seahawks. YOU said Tampa had a higher rated defense. YOU said Washington had a higher rated defense.

That wasn't me making all of that bullshit up -- it wads you. I just pointed it out. While I grabbed the reigns and led you to your asskicking, I certainly didn't engineer it -- you did that all on your own. Lash out at me all you like -- at the end of the day, you still fucking clowned yourself. I just helped you over the fence.

Dinsdale wrote:Also, I can outsmack anyone here, anytime I'm so inclined, which means I can call anybody anything I want, whenever I want. The man with the gold makes the rules.

Priceless!

The last time the Seahawks won a playoff game, Reagan and Mondale were about to square off and the Thompson Twins were cranking out hits.

Fact: Mike Holmgren hasn't won a playoff game since Brett Favre was his quarterback.

Fact: the Redskins have won more playoff games in the last six days that Seattle has won in the last 22 years.

Fact: Coach William Taft will be intimidated when looking across the field at the playoff meistro, 17-5 Joe Gibbs of Canton, Ohio. They are carving ANOTHER bust for him as we speak.

The most nervous team on the field Saturday will be the Seattle Seahawks, a team that has failed to come through on their 5 year running "dark horse" status in the NFC....a team that has been cursed by Beavis Hasselbach's "We're Gonna SCORE!" garuantee in 2004 and embarrassed by last year's debacle at home against the Rams in the playoffs.

The Seahawks are soft. And they are scared. We're coming, Seamonkeys. Arrington didn't play in our week Four win over you guys...we'lll be glad to introduce you to him in a couple days.

hey, dins- who do you like in the rose bowl? USC is favored, but i'll take texas to win straight up.

bet?

interesting article about alexander being 'soft' from cbs sportsline....


Seattle Seahawks running back Shaun Alexander has put up some gaudy numbers the past couple of seasons, numbers good enough to earn him NFL MVP honors for 2005.


Shaun Alexander must deliver in his third shot at the playoffs. He is generally considered by many to be one of the top two or three running backs in the league. At 28, he still has good years left in his legs, a player in his prime.

So why is it that he's playing under the one-year franchise tag and so far has been unable to get the Seahawks to agree to terms with him on a long-term deal?

Here are two numbers to consider: 2.3 and 2.7.

Those are the per-carry averages for Alexander in his two career postseason games. In 2003, he rushed 20 times for 45 yards in a loss to the Green Bay Packers in a wild-card game. Last season, he ran for 40 yards on 15 carries in a wild-card loss to the St. Louis Rams.

The Touchdown Man, as some have taken to calling him after he scored 27 this season and 87 the past five, did have three 1-yard touchdown runs against Green Bay but none against St. Louis. Even so, to put it bluntly, he's been a playoff bust.


Which best fits Shaun Alexander?
One of the top backs in the NFL and worth a big contract
A bit overrated and lucky to be running behind a strong O line
A soft back who piles up stats against lesser teams



To put it bluntly: So far he's been a playoff bust.

As the Seahawks ready to face the Washington Redskins on Saturday at Qwest Field in a divisional playoff game, we offer these words of encouragement to Alexander:

Show us you're worth the money.

Show all the doubters out there -- including some inside your own locker room -- that you are truly an elite back.

Show us that nickname of Soft Shaun doesn't fit.

It might come off as lunacy to question somebody who is having the type of season Alexander is, a season full of record numbers. He is a Fantasy Football delight, racking up touchdowns better than any player in the league and making many question the sanity of the Seahawks for not giving him a new deal.

Yet something seems to be missing. Like a long-term commitment from the Seahawks, perhaps?

That could be because there's still a perception he isn't truly one of the greats and that he flourishes running behind one of the best run-blocking lines in the league. The left side of the Seattle line -- featuring tackle Walter Jones and guard Steve Hutchinson -- is the best side of any line in the NFL.

I could gain 1,000 yards going through some of those holes.

"Do you see the room he has on some runs?" said one NFC personnel director. "He's good, but that line really helps him get going."

Alexander ran for 1,880 yards this season, which is impressive, no matter how he got it. He led the league in rushing and did it with an easy running style.

Yet there are still questions about his toughness. His teammates have called him Soft Shaun in the past. Some coaches on the Seattle staff have questioned his toughness when it came to gut-check time. The flip side is that he hasn't missed a game in his six seasons, which has to mean something. He shows up each week, which is more than many other backs.

If you don't believe the Seahawks have questions about him, then why in the heck were they peddling him around the league before the 2004 season for a draft pick -- a second-round pick, no less. Seattle called the Dallas Cowboys to ask if they had any interest, but the Cowboys told them the price was too high.

A second-round pick for Shaun Alexander? That seems like a steal. Only the Cowboys didn't bite.

There has to be a reason, right?

In the past two seasons, Alexander has rushed for a combined 3,576 yards. That's an astounding number, the best in the league over that span.

But I wanted to look deeper into the numbers, to see how he did against defenses that finished those seasons ranked in the top 10. The reason for that is there is a perception he puts up big numbers in bunches against lesser defenses.

Alexander has played 11 games the past two seasons against teams that finished ranked in the top 10 in total defense. Of those 11 games, he went over 100 twice, both against Arizona this season.

He dominated the Cardinals, rushing for 313 yards in two games with six touchdowns. And, yes, the Cardinals did finish ranked in the top 10 in total defense.

In the other nine games against top-10 defenses, Alexander didn't fare as well. He had 639 yards and four touchdowns. His per-carry average was 3.78. If you include those two Arizona games, his per-carry average is 4.4 against top-10 defenses, which isn't all that bad.

But when you compare it to his 4.9 per-rush average over the past two seasons, it's significantly lower.

To check the theory closer, I wanted to see how he did against defenses that were ranked among the bottom 10 in the league. If his numbers were significantly higher, maybe the theory would be even more solid.

He played 11 games against defenses that were ranked in the bottom 10 of the league the past two seasons. Of those 11 games, he went over 100 in nine. He also rushed for 19 touchdowns, which means he did have more success. But his per-carry average is down slightly to 4.36 against those teams because he carried it more.

So does Alexander play better against the lesser teams? Some, but it's not as eye-opening as you would expect, other than the touchdown numbers.

Even so, there are still doubts about him. Maybe the Seahawks are waiting until after these playoffs to decide whether to give him a long-term deal. There has to be something holding them up.

When a superstar player wins the MVP, shouldn't they be racing to sign him to a new deal? Instead, there is no deal, only uncertainty as to whether they will sign him long term. There is talk in Seattle that all he cares about is the money, that he's a malcontent who wants what's best for Shaun Alexander.

Isn't that what all players really want anyway? I won't fault him for that. There's talk that he isn't a teammate's teammate. When I talked to a few Seattle players about him before a game last year, some smirked and shook their head. Maybe he isn't endearing. One Seattle newspaper recently did a story on him and had this sentence: Content or Malcontent?

To see him is to think he is as content as any player in the league. He's always smiling, always seemingly having a good time.

Maybe their message is this: Show us in the next three weeks that you're worth it.

Peyton Manning sure has a lot of pressure coming in the next two weeks in his bid to get to the Super Bowl, but Shaun Alexander isn't far behind.

He has to show he's a money player, a guy who will make it happen in the postseason, that he's somebody who will do it when the going gets tough.

Soft Shaun or Star Shaun? Which one is it?

The playoffs may bring us our answer -- and might get Alexander a big, fat contract.

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/story/9158837/1





gee. sounds kind of like what i posted on the first page.....

heres something related worth noting. the article said that alexander rushed for over 100 yards twice in 11 games against D's that finished in the top 10.

its fair to ask how portis did under similar circumstances.

portis faced 4 top 10 D's this year, including #'s 1 and 2. he went over 100 against each of those teams. in fact, of those 4, his best games were against the #1 and #2 D's with 144 and 121 yards.

that speaks for itself.

about the 9 point spread, a question was posed. 'when was the last time the hawks beat a winning team by more than 9 points?'

good question. here was the answer-


"..the last time the Seahawks won by 9 against a team that finished above .500 was Week 3 of 2000, when they beat the Saints 20-10. That makes me question the line a bit.

Now, in cases like this, where a wild card has to play a division winner enjoying the bye, and where the wild card won earlier in the season, the wild card was 3-2 (dating to 1978). That's better than winning 20% (the normal rate for wild cards in the divisional playoff), and better that the 3-23 for wild cards that LOST the first game, but not statistically significant due to the small sample size. Considering how close the first game was, it's not reason for great confidence."


the skins, on the other hand, beat 2 winning teams back to back about a month ago by 28 and 15 points.

Take the seagulls and give up the points boys...sorry Grego...

Bucmonkey wrote:Take the seagulls and give up the points boys...sorry Grego...

thank you for that fantastic analysis.

does anyone realize that the skins averaged over 33 points a game in the 3 games leading up to last weeks game....which was on the road (where 4 of their last 6 wins in a row have come from)....against the #1 D.....with a 14 point 1st qtr lead...with brunell dinged up and portis playing half the game???

eh- fack it.

Just throwing out my 2 cents Grego, and that's about what it's worth to 99% of us readin here. This is not a bitterness post, I just see the Skins having burnt themselves out to get here, stats aside. I really have no cheering interest in this game, just feel the Skins will come in flat.

Skins-28

Hawks-17

Raydah James wrote:Skins-28

Hawks-17

see, buc. now that is a great analysis. :wink: