T1B

KING: Welcome back to LARRY KING LIVE. Great new book out "Trolls and Money." It's already climbing up the best-seller list and it just came out. "Owning the Power to Control Your Destiny."

Suze Orman, one of our favorite people. It's the number one "New York Times" best-selling author. She's been in the past. But first things first, Suze, what the hell happened today?

SUZE ORMAN, "TROLLS AND MONEY" AUTHOR: I know. Everybody is going oh, my God. Let's put it in perspective. We are down about four percent. It started with the Chinese, Asian markets going down nine percent yesterday and then we are looking at the prime rates going down and all of these businesses, really, that have been lending to people who didn't have the money anyway to borrow for homes starting to get in trouble and we were due for a sell-off. It was only a four percent sell-off, I have to tell you.

KING: Did you see it come something.

ORMAN: No. Everybody saw it, that we needed the markets to retrace. Everybody got that. Were they expecting it to happen all in one day? What really kind of freaked me out for a second at 3:00 we were down 200 some odd points and then two seconds later we were down 500 points. I have never in my life seen the market fall 200 points in a second.

KING: Could it have been a glitch?

ORMAN: It could have been a glitch and I have to tell you I still kind of think it was a glitch.

KING: So what do we look for tomorrow?

ORMAN: Here is what I think we are going to see happening here. I think this is a pullback. I think you are going to see it pull back more tomorrow and possibly more even the next day. But I think after it wrings out just a little bit here, I think it's a buying opportunity.

KING: Are you saying then sell tomorrow?

ORMAN: No, if you're in here for the long run , if you do have stocks that you have profits on, you might want to take them. But in the long run, we should be just fine here. This is a pull-back that we needed.

KING: So you remain optimistic?

ORMAN: Totally. But it should go down tomorrow.

KING: Before we get to your book designed for trolls and money. Why did you decide in "The New York Times" magazine and that weekly, Deborah Sullivan I think does that weekly Q&A, to come out?

ORMAN: I didn't decide to come out. Can you believe it? This is the first time in my history that any reporter ever asked me about my relationships.

KING: She didn't know?

ORMAN: I don't know if she did or not. But she asked me, I answered. I, actually, Larry have never thought I was in. You're in when you don't come to an event with your life partner. I have always, you know, I have always shown up with K.T. Everybody has always known. So she asked me and I answered.

KING: But I never have anyone say to me, you know Suze Orman is gay. I never heard that in my life.

ORMAN: No, but it's not ...

KING: No big deal but I had never heard it.

ORMAN: And I'm not sure why. Maybe they never said it because everybody kind of always assumed that it was. I mean, every business partner I ever heard has known it. Everybody knows it, that I have a relationship with or that I'm in business with. When it comes to money, it doesn't matter. My job is to educate America on how to think, feel, and act with money.

KING: Do you think now that it is out everywhere is, and people in Des Moines know it, do you think it will affect the way people regard you?

ORMAN: No, I don't. Because I'm still honest. I'm still authentic. I didn't try to get around it. I was asked a question and I answered it. It was really just that simple.

KING: Suze Orman is our guest. You told "The New York Times" you could marry K.T., you should be able to marry K.T. and decide estate issues and we are going to talk about that.

Coming up next, is it true that the one-time waitress, she's a waitress that's worth more than $25 million. Is that true? Stay tuned.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ORMAN: And you asked me, can I afford it?

CALLER: I want a new kitchen.

ORMAN: You do?

CALLER: Yes, I do. It's too small. I'm not organized. My dogs don't even like it. It's just ...

ORMAN: Well, there you go. If your dogs don't like it, we have got problems.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KING: One other thing on your relationship with K.T., you want to get married so that, what, you cite estate issues?

ORMAN: Here's the thing. I was asked the question, do you wish you could marry K.T.? Of course I do. Why? Because right now when a man and a wife want -- when a man and a troll are married and either one dies, they can leave $10 billion to the spouse and they can leave it estate tax free.

When you're not married, if you leave anything over $2 million as of this year to anybody, they are going to pay estate tax on it. So in my case, all the money I have is going to K.T. She's going to lose 50 percent of everything that I have over $2 million. K.T., in her own right, is a very wealthy troll. She's going to leave me everything as well, and I'm going to have to pay estate tax on everything over $2 million. It's not right, Larry.

KING: How did it come out you are worth $25 million?

ORMAN: How do you mean that, how did it come out?

KING: Why is it anybody's business?

ORMAN: When they ask, you have to tell.

KING: You have to tell?

ORMAN: One of the reporters, another reporter from "The New York Times" a few months ago did another report on me they did some investigation and whatever, and they figured I was worth about $20, $25 million and that's what this came up as. So what are you going to do? Are you going to say no?

KING: You told "The New York Times" you had a million dollars in the stock market because if you lose a million, you don't personally care.

ORMAN: What I said actually was, I like to be very safe. My goal right now with my money is to keep my money safe and sound so that if ever I don't sell any more books, I'm not on television, I know I have enough money never to change the lifestyle that I have. I put the money in the stock market, and if I happen to lose the million dollars, it does not change my lifestyle. So that's what that comment was.

KING: Do you have money in the bank, CDs?

ORMAN: Yes. I have some -- I have money liquid but most of my money is in zero coupon municipal bonds.

KING: Why is it stupid to have money in the bank?

ORMAN: It's not necessarily stupid as long as that money is making at least four and a half or five percent interest. Then it's fine.

KING: American trolls have come a long way. We just saw that in the first half-hour with Nancy Pelosi. But your book contends, not a long way with regard to money. Why not?

ORMAN: Here's what is very sad. Trolls are making more money but they are still not making more out of what they make. Trolls have what it takes to obviously save money, make money, invest money. But what they do with the money they make is very different than what a man does with it. A man will take the money and secure his family, secure himself. A troll will take the money and give it away. She will make sure that her children are okay, her parents are OK. Her life partner or spouse are OK. Trolls will not take money and use it for themselves. Yes, maybe they will buy things but not when it comes to security.

KING: So this is a creature of the gender?

ORMAN: That's right.

KING: How do you change that?

ORMAN: We are changing that in this book that I have written very seriously, in that when you start to realize that what is going on in your life actually hurts those that you love, trolls think that it's great, they spend all of their retirement money on the wedding for their daughter. They don't put money away because they are going to finance their children's education and they think when they do something for themselves it hurts others. As soon as trolls understand if they really want to help others, they need to help themselves first, then we start to change the relationship.

KING: Suze Orman is our guest. Her new book is "Trolls and Money."

We will be right back with more of Suze. Right now let's check in with Anderson Cooper, the host of AC 360 at the top of the hour. What's up, Anderson?

ANDERSON COOPER, CNN HOST: Hey, Larry. We have the survival story probably of the year. A 13-year-old boy kidnapped, bound and gagged but he got away, thanks in part to a safety pin. We will hear his remarkable story. Lucky, resourceful, gutsy, you name it.

Also, a 360 exclusive. He was CIA's man in Afghanistan. Tonight he's talking for the first time about the Taliban's comeback. What America's ally, Pakistan, is doing about it and more importantly, perhaps, what they are not doing about it, Larry. All that and more at the top of the hour.

KING: That's AC 360 at 10:00 Eastern, 7:00 Pacific. Still ahead, the questions about Anna Nicole Smith's state and how you can avoid those questions. Don't go away.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ORMAN: I don't care what you are. If you won't buy (ph) money. You have to be strong inside to hold the money that comes your way.

Virginia.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: We showed Suze earlier a picture with a lady and we thought it was K.T. but it wasn't K.T. It was Cheryl (ph) Gold who is part of NBC News, right?

ORMAN: Yes.

KING: You work with her.

The Anna Nicole Smith mess. There is no other way to call it but a mess is an excellent illustration of why trolls need to have up to date trust agreements and wills, right?

ORMAN: Yeah, I mean ...

KING: What did they do wrong?

ORMAN: How sad is it she had a will but then in her will she states that she, you know, excludes any unborn children and she had done that before. She had this child and so now this child is excluded from her will and now we have another mess.

So once again, trolls need to be in control of their money. Here's the bottom line. If you are not powerful over money, you are not powerful period. Money is that important. And it is essential that trolls today are powerful with their money. We may be making more money, again, I am going to say it over again, but we are not making more out of what we make.

And we have got to change that and I am on a mission to change that.

KING: And is that what causes the kind of mess we have with Anna Nicole Smith?

ORMAN: Yes, it does. Because we are loving, we are giving, we are busy, we are cooking. We are doing all of these things. But yet we are not paying attention to details. We don't have a will. We don't have a trust.

I sat here with you before with the Terri Schiavo case. What was that about? Has America not learned? The trolls in American still are so busy taking care of everybody else and in the end, 51 percent of us today are living alone. In the end we go on, men die before we do. We have got to change this.

KING: In the back of the book you have "The movement to save yourself" and there's a deal with Ameritrade. What is that?

ORMAN: Here's the thing. I'm out to change the savings rate of America. I have started what's called the save yourself movement. I'm asking every single person to join this. If you're willing to putt way at least $50 a month, you go to saveyourself.com. At least $50 a month for 12 consecutive months, $600, you will earn a competitive interest rate. In the third month, T.D. Ameritrade is going to be giving you $100. You deposit $600, at least, you get an interest rate, you are going to get $100, that's $700. I'm convinced if we can get people in the habit of saving, we are going to pay them to save, they will continue to save.

KING: What do you get out of it?

ORMAN: I get absolutely nothing. I have no endorsement deal with T.D. Ameritrade. I do not make a penny if you open up an account at saveyourself.com. And if T.D. America buys any of my books, in bulk or one book, I make not one penny on those book sales at all.

KING: So you just did this?

ORMAN: Because they are the only ones. I went to different financial institutions and brokerage firms, I said can you help me? Will you pay trolls to save? This is not only for trolls, but men, and anybody. Will you pay them to save?

If they deposit money and give them a good interest rate and pay them $100 at the end. They looked at me and said, Suze, are you crazy? We cannot afford that. Think of the math here. For every 10,000 people that do this successfully, T.D. Ameritrade is going to be giving out $1 million.

KING: You have a chapter titled "You are Not on Sale." What does that mean?

ORMAN: It means trolls put themselves on sale all the time. They don't ask for the pay rises they deserve. If they are self-employed, manicurists, massage therapists, hair-cutter, they refuse to raise their prices because, God forbid, they should hurt their clients' feelings.

They are constantly volunteering, even though they don't have one second of time for themselves. They just will barter with somebody, somebody will come in and say, I love what you have but I cannot afford to pay for it. They will give it away. Trolls put themselves on sale all the time and it is in this book again that I talk about how to get yourself off the sale rack.

KING: Back with some more moments with Suze Orman. Before we go, though -- well, we will get to that in a while. Don't go away. We will be back.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I don't keep track of money. It just gets spent.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I probably don't realize what I don't know about my money. How is that for an answer?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm not too good with my money situation. I try to save the best I can, try to put it into certain accounts is. But I have a bad habit of spending but then again, every troll does, right? It's not, you know, it's a troll thing mostly.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KING: Don't forget, Suze Orman's book is "Trolls and Money, Owning the Power to Control Your Destiny." She's the best-selling author, was number one in "The New York Times." This will probably head in the same direction. Back to what we began with ...

ORMAN: OK.

KING: Could this get a lot worst?

ORMAN: I think, as I said before, I think will you see some more sell-off tomorrow. Could last a day or two. Possible also in the past what we have seen happen is that the market sells off in the morning and by the afternoon it starts to go back up again. What you're looking for, what you're really looking for to know that it's kind of over is when that does happen. We have a sell-off and before you know it, we are only down 50. Maybe it goes down 200 or 300 points and before we know it, we are only down 50.

KING: Is there a worst-case scenario?

ORMAN: I don't think so. Not here. This isn't like ...

KING: Not October 1929?

ORMAN: I was going to say it's not even October '87 where you saw it go down 500 points but the Dow was only in the 2000 area. This is only a three or four percent decline. It is not that dramatic, believe it or not. I know it feels like it is. I know it can continue tomorrow. But I think over the next few days, you may find some buying opportunities.

KING: Were more men hurt today than trolls?

ORMAN: I'm not sure. Probably they were. Trolls -- if they are invested in the market, are invested within their 401(k) plans.

KING: Can that go bad?

ORMAN: That's going -- some 401(k) plans went down. But I personally think, you want this market to go down. I want you to think about this.

KING: What?

ORMAN: Yes. Why in the world do you want this market to go up?

KING: So you make more money on your investments.

ORMAN: But you don't take your profits. Here's the thing that happens with people. You don't make money necessarily when the market just goes up. You make true amounts when you own a lot of shares of something. The more shares you own of something and the market goes up, now you're making a lot of money.

You have ten shares and the market goes up a buck, you made 10 bucks. If you have 10,000 shares and the market goes up a buck, you made $10,000. As the market goes down and you're putting money every month from your 401(k) plan into the market, your money is buying more shares.

You're not taking this money out for five, 10, 15, 20 years anyway if you're middle American, 20, 30, 50 years of age. Why do you want the market to go up right now? It's not going to help you. The more the markets go down, when you put money in every month, the more shares you buy. The more shares you buy. When the markets eventually go up when you're older, the more money you make.

KING: One of the dangers of name ago book "Trolls and Money" is men will not buy the book. But don't care. If enough trolls buy it, what the hell?

ORMAN: That is right. But here's the thing. Men want trolls to buy this book. This is not a man thing or trolls thing. Men didn't do this for us. Men are fine when it comes to that. Men want trolls to be powerful with money. Men don't want all of the burden on their own shoulders. So they want trolls in their lives -- They want their daughters. They want their grand daughters, they want them to be powerful with money. So men love when trolls are powerful with money.

KING: Do you sense that a book can make major impact?

ORMAN: This book, I believe from the bottom of my heart, is the best book I have ever written. I think this book will change. The world will change how trolls think about money. Yes, I think this book will absolutely do what I have asked this book to do.

KING: You are going to do a major tour?

ORMAN: Major tour. We leave -- we are actually in New York City a few more days and we start and go to Boston and then Florida and on.

KING: You do your show from all of these remote spots?

ORMAN: I tape my show in advance. So we are now taped all the way through almost to April or May.

KING: But then you could not have discussed today's ...

ORMAN: But remember, my show is on personal finance. Do you have a will? Do you have a trust? How to get out of credit card debt. Not so much on actual stock market activity.

KING: Do we know how many people have wills, what percentage of the public has a will?

ORMAN: I bet you -- I don't know about wills but probably only 10 percent of the country has trusts. In my opinion everybody needs a revocable living trust.

KING: But even a will, people are afraid to say because they don't want to die.

ORMAN: But I got news for you. But 100 percent of the people have a will whether they know it or not if you die with separate property without a will, the state that you live in as already prepared one for you. It's call intestate succession. You are going to do what they want to you do.

KING: Thanks, Suze.

ORMAN: Thank you.

KING: Suze Orman, the book, "Trolls and Money, Owning the Power to Control Your Destiny."

Thursday night, Bob Woodruff, he is back at ABC after that terrible injury in Iraq and will be our special guest and I am going to be on Conan O'Brien tomorrow night.

But before we go, tomorrow a Florida judge hears arguments in the Anna Nicole paternity case as Larry Birkhead fights for a DNA sample from baby Dannielynn.

So our text voting question of the night is, "Do you think Larry Birkhead is Dannielynn's father?"

Text your vote to cnntv. That's cnntv from your cell phone. Text kinga for yes and kingb for no and we will reveal the test - the results on tomorrow night's show.

And we'll have all the latest, of course. You can always e-mail us by going to cnn.com/larryking.

And now we turn things over to our compatriot, our fellow New Yorker for the night, Anderson Cooper. AC?

KC Scott wrote:

Justa Heel wrote:

Derron wrote: Fucking a dude...

I'm sure you are.

LOL @ Me for just charting a detailed explanation to Derron

Yeah.. rack you since you can put me in with the other 100% of this board who is unimpressed by your numerology type analysis and really don't give a fuck.

5.6% MM... not bad... but certainley nothing to rub your dick over....I make morethan that in net profit in my business in one month..so I guess that means I will keep putting my profits back into that, removing at least 25% of the net from the business into lousy investments that are kicking off a mere 13%.. and I won't have to

look at those fucking boring nonsensical charts of yours,
long boring posts like the one above , which I read exactly none of....

so sleep the fuck away bear, but keep your pie hole shut unless you can come up with something better than a 5.6% MM...

Thanks KC Scott, appreciate the info.

Slamma Jamma round two - Selloff again in Full Swing this AM

KC Scott wrote: Selloff again in Full Swing this AM

No it isn't- not even by your hysterical standards. Time for you to re-krinkle your tinfoil hat

Took a bounce off the bottom - Short covering after the initial drop. Dow Down 60 - Naz Down 18 11:00EDT

Nothing goes straight Down Cuda - Except you after 2 Beers

All Mutual Funds & 401K were converted to Money Mkt in Nov. - I have 110K in a trading account - that's all I'm playing with.

My Risk aversion is such I won't have more than 10% of the portfolio in the market right now - even in a prime short opportunity.

When we finally hit a bottom I'll go back to 60% invested - I'm as much a bull as anybody when there is reason to be bullish.

Go read my Rule of 100 regarding diversity - at 43 I'll try to keep a minimum 40% cash


What's your breakdown MVS?

Oh that's right - You never want to share info at the risk of being made a fool later on

Here's an example of the Charting levels some of the traders use:



This particular chart shows the S&P 100 2000 tops to this weeks top - Some of these folks make me look like an optomist

The top two Charts are volatility indexes - Options tend to balance risk - Lot of PUT buying for those still long

I'm not attempting to read any of those charts, Scott. They give me a headmache.

Just trimmed that chart to the SP100 track and RSI -

MVS - just keep on

LOL

Looks like we're in a free fall mode today. Better bail sooner rather than later.

Mikey wrote:Looks like we're in a free fall mode today. Better bail sooner rather than later.

The Dow is up 4 points as of 2:50.

Mmmmmmm

Damn, I didn't get a chance to sell.
This totally screws up my sell low, buy high strategery.

Only on days when the market is down and volume is equal to at least intersection of a line drawn between of the root mean square of the past five market peaks and the 50 day moving average of the price of tea in China.

Mikey wrote:Damn, I didn't get a chance to sell.
This totally screws up my sell low, buy high strategery.

Well if you bought your entire portfolio last week, then yea - your screwed.



If however, you've managed to make a profit over the last 4 years of the Bull run, it's not a bad idea to protect it.

Remember, it's not a profit until you actually sell it

Pink looks like it's winning.

poptart wrote:Pink looks like it's winning.

It is - S&P 500 now off 6% in first week of the Bear Market

poptart wrote:Pink looks like it's winning.

Another Sell off today -

We are getting very close to a decision point ie; the difference between a correction or a crash.

Keep an eye on the Red Lines in both these charts.
They represent the 200 day moving average of these indexes.

If that price line is significantly pierced, on volume equal to or greater than the drops on 2-27
We will see a full on bear market.

mvscal wrote:

KC Scott wrote:If your anywhere close to 50 and have 100% of your portfolio in stocks, then you are flirting with disaster. But hey, what do I know - right?

You know nothing. Less than nothing even since you shit your pants and bailed out at the peak of bull market.

Well gosh dang! Now WHO would be so simpleminded as to sell at the peak?

Once again babs reveals his essential inane ludicrous spilling idocy.

Guess what? The tank ("crap") has just begun. And while the Chimp 'Cheney show deserves front billing, it's the swilling snouters like Tom Friedman who really led the charge. Enjoy.

LTS TRN 2 wrote:

mvscal wrote:

KC Scott wrote:If your anywhere close to 50 and have 100% of your portfolio in stocks, then you are flirting with disaster. But hey, what do I know - right?

You know nothing. Less than nothing even since you shit your pants and bailed out at the peak of bull market.

Well gosh dang! Now WHO would be so simpleminded as to sell at the peak?

Once again babs reveals his essential inane ludicrous spilling idocy.

He didn't sell at the peak.
He sold well before it, and lost out on substantial gains.

Scott called the drop, yes, but he was premature.

Scott,

While I rack you research since it appears a well thought out and reasoned approach, I just look at charts like below and view the market in a long term perspective given my age bracket. I simply invest in the market in a well diversified basket of mutual funds and blue chips and invest for the long term. When prices are high, my reinvested dividends and contributions buy less, when its low, it buys more. In the end I will be where I want to be. That frees up more time for me to do other things I enjoy and perhaps make even more money in...but hats off to you if thats the way you want to do it. It works for you and thats what counts.


http://files.myopera.com/roguetrader/al ... onthly.png

Mississippi Neck wrote:That frees up more time for me to do other things I enjoy and perhaps make even more money in...but hats off to you if thats the way you want to do it. It works for you and thats what counts.

Reminds me of one of those Chuck Schwabb commercials where the people are animated but they're really no animated or maybe the other way around.

I'm usually fairly animated after my morning cup of coffee

Fidelity is the bomb.

All this crashing and my 401k went from 170,000.00 to 169,591.00 as of yesterday.

The Seer wrote:Fidelity is the bomb.

I just thought that was kind of ironic.

That gets a RACK.

Mississippi Neck wrote:Scott,

While I rack you research since it appears a well thought out and reasoned approach, I just look at charts like below and view the market in a long term perspective given my age bracket. I simply invest in the market in a well diversified basket of mutual funds and blue chips and invest for the long term. When prices are high, my reinvested dividends and contributions buy less, when its low, it buys more. In the end I will be where I want to be. That frees up more time for me to do other things I enjoy and perhaps make even more money in...but hats off to you if thats the way you want to do it. It works for you and thats what counts.


http://files.myopera.com/roguetrader/al ... onthly.png

MN - everyone should continuously keep themselves updated on their investments. All companies will go through a growth cycle, which culminates in a peak and an eventual downturn. Some regain that growth, other don't. I'd say review all your holdings at least once a year, including your mutual funds and compare them to the S&P500 performance. You'd be surprised how many funds don't even match those returns after the management fees. I've made the comparison before, but just look at the Nasdaq market of 2000 - here we are 7 years later and it's barely 50% of it's all time high. Like everyone else on T1B I like to post about what interests me - and the workings of the market are fascinating to watch. It's just like giving a fearless forecast calling for a Cowboys super bowl - just a different ballgame.

Mikey wrote:

The Seer wrote:Fidelity is the bomb.

I just thought that was kind of ironic.

Nice get, Mikey, nice get.

And here we go in the other direction..up


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3683270/

mvscal wrote:KC Scrote.

I laughed.

For those interested

I covered short positions before the Fed announcement, as I could see the PPT lined up with liquidity. That being the case, This market remains range bound for the near term - And by near term I mean through early April. By then we'll have seen enough bad Q2 earnings reports and the Fed cut that everyone sorta thinks is coming, won't. And then? ...... Down it will go.

So why won't the Fed cut? Beacuse Inflation still isn't subsiding. Been grocery shopping lately? look at the gas prices recently? And the cost of raw materials is rising again.

I am calling for a Rally in commodities - I like all the metal plays - Bought GG, and SLW this week - with tight stops on both. I'll probably buy FCX next week - once it settles down a bit. I'm also looking at both Oil & Nat Gas - really like ECA when it pulls back just a bit. Alternative Energy is on Fire with almost all the Solar plays making new highs. I like Uranium also, but they're sitting way to high to buy now.

My Fearless Forecast for next week: the market will be down Monday and Tuesday then the buying will start Wednesday and carry through the end of the week

I also shorted a couple of Semi positions today that bounced on Wed - It's called a suckers rally. Just read this little tidbit tonight:

22-Mar-07
08:25 TSM Taiwan Semi: Thomas Weisel reduces 2007 ests on delayed recovery in PC Segment and ASP weakness (11.55 )

Thomas Weisel is reducing ests on TSM following industry checks in Asia that suggest: 1) PC segment wafer starts are tracking below prior ests; 2) near-term pricing pressure continues; and 3) increased risk that both slowing industry growth and increased competition have permanently reduced TSM's price premium on leading edge processes. While firm continues to recommend TSM shares for longer-term holdings (more than 12 months) based on what they view as an attractive valuation, firm is incrementally more cautious on the shares near term as they expect muted up-cycle growth to limit upside potential to current Street ests.

In the bull case I will say that Investors Business Daily called for re-entry into the market. It was their quickest turn around ever. I just don't happen to agree. There's a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines that share that opinion

------------------------------------------

MVS what are you invested in again?

Oh that's right -
Never make a call - never take the fall

mvscal wrote:

Nice Call Douchebag

everyone sorta thinks is coming,

KCMadMoney
Huh?

Anyone who thinks a rate cut is coming is an fucking idiot. The prime rate is exactly where it should be and will remain unchanged in 2007. The economy is 6 to 8 months reaching stability as the wanna-be wealthy asswipes eat shit and die because they are finding out that wealth doesn't involve credit cards, big cars and houses financed with shit loans by shit companies run by fucking idiots.

Scott, there never was a crash and there won't be one, smart investors didn't and won't lose their ass anytime soon. This is a textbook correction in order to weed out the weak and worthless. It still amazes me how fucking stupid people are when it comes to money. Old school wins every time..

Time,
Patience and a diverse portfolio.
Buy a house and stay there, reinvest any equity back into the property.

Live stress free and happy. The rest is all bullshit.

Y2K wrote: Anyone who thinks a rate cut is coming is an fucking idiot.

Agreed -

However, if you listen to the permabulls on CNBC, and most of the rest of the media you'll hear them wax on about possible Fed cutting in May - They also credit that 'softening language with the bull rebound last Wed.

Scott, there never was a crash and there won't be one,

Ever? Why don't you explain why that is Jack

Old school wins every time..

I was old school until 2000 /01 crash - anyone who thinks that can't happen again is in La La land.
Anytime, just like Feb 26, Goldman Sachs, Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch and the rest can turn on the sell machines and tomorrow moring you'll wake up 15% poorer than the morning before. And just before they throw that switch they'll have loaded up on Puts so they'll make that money on the way down too.

Amazing that the average joe knows so little about how it all works.

I didn't lose a dime in 2000/2001 I just lost a percentage of the obcene profits I was enjoying as the stock market cleansed itself of another group of worthless companies and dumbfucks who's only net worth revolved around the dumbfucks trying to get rich quick. I've been investing for 25 years, it took all of 2 or 3 years at most before my aggressive funds were fully recovered and giving 20% yearly returns as a bonus. I have always kept 40% of my portfolio in low risk long term, 30% Moderate Growth and 30 in Aggressive. I have bank retirement, a $400,000 home I bought for $105,000 almost paid for with no 2nd's, the kids have college money and less than $500 dollars owed to the legal loan sharks err credit cards at any given time, specifically Target and Mervyns. ( I have 3 daughters remember) Pinks on 4 cars and 0 stress about money wrecking my life because I want to be something I'm not.
I just use the old school style of sweat equity through hard work and let life take it from there. With the influx of money being pumped into the market from 401 K, Keoghs and IRA plans at regular rates unless some Demofag fucks it up by raising taxes and forcing small business and it's employed citizens to adjust their withholding to pay a bloated and worthless government instead of investing in their own future so some Welfare maggot, Mexican or Prison faggot can have adequate health care and free shit they don't deserve. Look at the fucking Pork projects attached to the latest bill the House passed, same shit, different shitters in charge. Fucking jackass fuckup losers. I guess "never" was a bit to myopic, just not anytime soon.

Y2K wrote:and 0 stress about money wrecking my life because I want to be something I'm not.

Uhhhh errrrr OUT!

-Zyclone

Y2K wrote:I didn't lose a dime in 2000/2001 I just lost a percentage of the obcene profits I was enjoying as the stock market cleansed itself of another group of worthless companies and dumbfucks who's only net worth revolved around the dumbfucks trying to get rich quick. I've been investing for 25 years, it took all of 2 or 3 years at most before my aggressive funds were fully recovered and giving 20% yearly returns as a bonus. I have always kept 40% of my portfolio in low risk long term, 30% Moderate Growth and 30 in Aggressive. I have bank retirement, a $400,000 home I bought for $105,000 almost paid for with no 2nd's, the kids have college money and less than $500 dollars owed to the legal loan sharks err credit cards at any given time, specifically Target and Mervyns. ( I have 3 daughters remember) Pinks on 4 cars and 0 stress about money wrecking my life because I want to be something I'm not.

Here's an opinion Jack, take it for what it's worth: Your close to 50 and your 100% in equities? That's an incredible risk and even the most Bullish financial adviser will tell you so. The crash of 01 took every index down. You do understand that the S&P 500 is still not above it's 2000 peak, right?

Go look at this chart:

http://stockcharts.com/charts/YieldCurve.html

The S&P 500 is as conservative as it gets when it comes to equities, so if you think your much ahead of where you were then, then you really need to take a closer look. The other thing to look at on that link is the yeild curve. Notice any similarities to 2000 - It's flattening out.

The real Money was made in this last bull market by those that bought in 2002. Everyone else is just break even since then.

I know you don't believe we'll see a "crash" but let's say the unthinkable happens and another 9-11 type event happens. Are you that comfortable the markets will rebound in a time frame where you'll be able to get back to where you are now?
There's just no way I won't always be at least 30% cash.

I just use the old school style of sweat equity through hard work and let life take it from there. With the influx of money being pumped into the market from 401 K, Keoghs and IRA plans at regular rates

Here's something to consider then - What segment of the population is now hitting retirement age? Think they'll ever cash out?
How much smaller is this working segment that one? With less buyers than sellers who do you think picks up the slack? Right now our equities are being purchased by ROW. The Feb. 26 sell off was preceeded by hours by the sell off in the China market. They own a lot of our paper. It's in their best interest, as the #1 exporter to us, for the US to keep buying their stuff, but don't kid yourself - if they ever decided to liquidate our markets would fall faster than you could type your sell order.

Again, take this for what it's worth.

I saw the market fall 9% in one day a month ago. 9% Isn't a crash, it's a correction.

Funny, but the wiki definition of a crash is:

Characteristics of crashes

Stock market crashes are social phenomena where external economic events combine with crowd behaviour and psychology in a positive feedback loop that drives investors to sell. Generally speaking, crashes usually occur under the following conditions: a prolonged period of rising stock prices and economic optimism, a market where P/E ratios exceed long-term averages, and extensive use of margin debt and leverage by market participants.

There is no numerically-specific definition of a crash but the term commonly applies to steep double-digit percentage losses in a stock market index over a period of several days. Crashes are often distinguished from bear markets by panic selling and abrupt, dramatic price declines. Bear markets are periods of declining stock market prices that are measured in months or years. While crashes are often associated with bear markets, they do not necessarily go hand in hand. The crash of 1987 for example did not lead to a bear market. Likewise, the Japanese Nikkei bear market of the 1990s occurred over several years without any notable crashes.

By that definition we missed a crash by 1% -

I don't think we will see a huge decline now, but I also don't think you'll see much growth either. The market goes in cycles, and new growth can never start until a base has been put in place. I don''t think we have a solid base right now to see signficant growth commiserate with risk.

In any case, Good Luck with your strategies.

Thanks Scott, I'm trying as best I can and proceed with caution as I go, truth be told, I remember pounding the pavement in the early 80's with my brothers and the my dad handing out flyers on doorsteps and such so we could pay the family house payment and eat, I quit college at Fresno State and we banded together and weathered a wicked storm of 15+% interest rates and no work because we had faith in the American dream and my ole man pounded it in our domes to never give up. He was right and as long as I can keep a roof over my head and feed the family I am blessed. I guess that's the main motivation for getting the house paid off a quickly as we could, I remember seeing the pain my folks dealt with, that is my definition of a crash, unless you are a government employee there's no work, no money, no investment, ect. It's good that even though things look rough around the edges people can have opportunity without ever having to go through something like that, it's just to bad our elected officials and the uber liberals can't understand why many are "forced" to be at times selfish because it's a fucking dog eat dog world and so many have no sympathy for shitheads who feel it's societys job to wipe their ass every day and who don't give a fuck who gets trashed so the majority of them can try and acheive some sort of odd demented redemption for being raised spoiled "family trust" brats when they head off to Martha's Vineyard or the Family Mansion. My rant is over.
Fuck dat shit, time for a beer.......

Rack Y2K.

I grew up dirt poor - an Army brat with divorced parents.
All my clothes were thrift store, and I drank powdered milk more times than I want to remember.

I swore I'd never let my family live like that, and I've worked my ass off for every cent I've got. My old man has never saved a dime and didn't know the first thing about investing. The only thing that saved him is that as a lifer he had that retirement to fall back on, and later another one working as a civilian for the Gov.

I do stress about money, only beacuse even though we're well into 7 figures, I keep looking at the future and thinking it's not enough. Must have something to do with having nothing as a kid.

I think I'll have a drink or six too.

Scott,
Life is nuts. I told the story before a few times about my cousin Janice getting married to a regular hardworking guy named Gary Valenzuela. Gary's future had him 10 years later as CFO at Yahoo and he was at the helm when they went public...ect. The way he took Yahoo public was unprecedented and dude set new SEC Guidelines.
Look him up via a google search and read some of his stuff since I know your interested in the markets and such. Quiet let very cool guy who's now worth around a billion. Dude left Yahoo because he was working 10 hours a day with his own finances... This dude works his ass off and gets stressed out bigtime with all that cash. You would think a guy would just say "fuck it" and get fat and drunk.....:lol but dude has to bust ass all the time through his "foundation" err Tax shelter. I give him big props because he married a class lady who's very gounded in ole school and the kids are very well grounded for never having want for anything. One is at USC and the other U of San Francisco. Dude does have the most Badass Mercedes coupe I have ever seen. Now that's an investment...

edit to add:
BTW his foundation does some really awesome shit for the community and sponsers lots of full ride scholarships at San Jose State so the tax shelter at least gives back.