Is a massive new technology disruption on the horizon?

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Mikey
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Re: Is a massive new technology disruption on the horizon?

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Left Seater wrote:
Mikey wrote:First though you might try defining “mature technology.”
Definition of basic words provided.
Mikey wrote:Sorry, but looking up the definition doesn't count.

Nice job moving the goal posts.



Further your lack of ability to link us up to significant gains in solar technology just makes my point for me. If you would slow down and not be so ready to argue, you would see that we are both pretty much on the same page. Hybrid is a good thing. More solar and wind is also good, but we need more storage capacity. Despite what 'Holic thinks battery storage for home use is a good thing.
Glad to see you're on board with these things. But your reading comprehension leaves a bit to be desired. I never asked you to look up the definition of "mature technology" just to define it. Looking it up is fine too, but you've conveniently ignored the two things that I did ask you to "link up."

No, I haven't moved the goalposts. You apparently don't know a goalpost when you see one.

If you want a link to gains in solar technology, you might start with the video that 88 linked.

You also might try here:

https://www.energy.gov/eere/success-sto ... ss-stories
Last edited by Mikey on Thu Aug 02, 2018 6:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Mikey
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Re: Is a massive new technology disruption on the horizon?

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As far as "mature technology" the definition you found certainly applies. But one could also argue that a technology whose implementation is still growing exponentially, whose cost is still decreasing exponentially, and whose efficiency continues to increase, should possibly not be considered "mature."




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Re: Is a massive new technology disruption on the horizon?

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Mikey wrote:No, I haven't moved the goalposts. You apparently don't know a goalpost when you see one.
He's a referee, for God's sake!
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Re: Is a massive new technology disruption on the horizon?

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Wow. Very interesting video, but also scary when you think about what he’s proposing as the disruption. If all that were to happen, you’re talking about a massive collapse in the economy and millions jobless. Think about what all is involved with a car?

-Aluminum and steel demand reduced significantly

-Polymer molds reduced

-Fuel additives no longer needed

- Dealerships gone

-Bank lenders cut

-Gas stations and car washes gone

-Road expansions and highway improvements no longer needed

-No cash flow for municipalities for parking tickets, speeding, accidents, Etc

-Insurance adjusters, agents, policies gone

The list goes on and on and this will not only cripple the economy but you’re talking about a full on ‘Running Man’ type situation where homeless people will be in the streets crowded around barrels of fire placing bets on life or death game shows.

The only thing I would balk at in his video is the powerful nature and deep pockets of big oil, the banks, and all that surrounds our current transportation infrastructure. I laugh at the people who were clapping when he mentioned the part of oil demand going down. These are the same people who have no idea how many jobs and livelihoods are on the line if the ICE goes away and the automobile industry is significantly reduced. We will end up being a socialist society with fixed incomes.




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Re: Is a massive new technology disruption on the horizon?

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All valid points, 88 and I’m not saying I’m against it, but it is scary to think about. We need to get with times. My polyethylene is not used in automotive industry, but our parent companies are massive players in big oil. Maybe need to think of a career change and get out in front of this and learn more about battery cells and storage business. If the demand for this is at the beginning of the S curve, then that would surely get me to retirement in 15-18 years.


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Re: Is a massive new technology disruption on the horizon?

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Left Seater wrote:
Mikey wrote:First though you might try defining “mature technology.”
Definition of basic words provided.
Mikey wrote:Sorry, but looking up the definition doesn't count.

Nice job moving the goal posts.



Further your lack of ability to link us up to significant gains in solar technology just makes my point for me. If you would slow down and not be so ready to argue, you would see that we are both pretty much on the same page. Hybrid is a good thing. More solar and wind is also good, but we need more storage capacity. Despite what 'Holic thinks battery storage for home use is a good thing.
I will admit that in local and maybe even a good bit of teeeehas, going off grid, or damn close to it, it may make economic sense to consider it.

Mikey, I do here your point about grid sizing, and in a place like local where a coupla few magic shade trees will pretty much get you to electron self sufficiency, it has more merit.

But, a good number of us live in places that are solarly challenged. We’ll never escape ‘the grid’. And the grid is already in place.

And even if we do go to residential ‘tron storage, weight isn’t an issue and to use a LS term, it sorta already is a mature technology. The big gains to be made in batteries are in cost of lightweight storage.

Maybe there would be something in the middle that would be more practical. Battery storage sites for neighborhoods. Maybe 100-200 homes. It would have the advantage of local storage and some economy of scale.


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Re: Is a massive new technology disruption on the horizon?

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88 wrote:

I was sitting in the airport a few weeks ago and couldn't help listening to one side of a conversation involving the installation of energy storage devices. The blow-hard salesman ruining my waiting-for-my-fucking-plane experience was jabbering on and on about the ease through which he is able to sell his electric storage cells to large businesses. They use a lot of juice and pay different rates depending upon the cost at peak etc. He said they can install the storage batteries (I got the impression that the storage batteries are used to collect and store energy from the grid when it is cheap as well as from solar panels installed on the building and on canopies over the cars in the parking lot etc.) at relatively low cost, and the company can recover that cost in less than four years. He said he is selling faster than his manufacturers and installers can keep up. This conversation was overheard before I watched the video, and so this all kind of make sense to me. This might be the company he works for, but I'm not sure.

http://www.primuspower.com/en/
One thing that you rarely see discussed, probably because most people just can't get their heads around it, but is critical to the economic success of energy storage in the Commercial and Industrial market, is the concept of demand reduction / demand response.

Most CI customers pay a Time of Use (TOU) rate that has both energy (kWh) and demand (kW) components. Generally there's a peak period, a mid-peak period and an off-peak period in the summer and just mid- and off-peak periods in the winter. The summer on-peak energy charge can be twice as high or more than the off-peak price.

You can see the tariff sheet for Southern California Edison's GS2 tariff, which is for mid-sized (20 kW to 200 kW) CI customers, here:

https://www.sce.com/NR/sc3/tm2/pdf/ce329.pdf

Option A has a huge energy charge (almost $0.40/kWh on-peak) and not so high demand charge (about $16.00/kW) where option B has a lower energy charge (about $0.13) and larger demand charge (almost $40.00/kW on-peak but only about $20.00 mid-peak and $16.00 off-peak).

Some companies end up paying a huge demand charge, much higher than their energy charge, because of the nature of how they use electricity. Demand is measured as the highest 15 minute average over the course of the one month billing period. 15 minutes is a pretty short period, and your demand charge for the entire month can be set by a single instance of high usage. For example, if you have a bunch of motors all start up at nearly the same time, the inrush current will cause a big intermittent spike in your demand and potentially cost hundreds or thousands of $$. Even if your natural load shape is spiky like, say running furnaces intermittently, the demand charge can kill you. A lot of companies that use multiple refrigeration compressors have controls that won't allow more than one to start up at any given time, just for this reason.

A storage battery can not only move your usage from the on-peak period to the off-peak period, it can smooth out all of the peaks that the utility sees by discharging when they occur. Think about it. If you're paying $40/kW for a 200 kW on-peak demand that's $8,000/month just in demand charges.
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Re: Is a massive new technology disruption on the horizon?

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We're not about to run out of oil any time soon. I think there are huge reserves still available under the earth's crust and abiogenesis is stiil a possibility, although it has been pooh-poohed by many, Oh if Tesla was really onto something---" wireless electricity transmission. This is on the near horizon. " The other item that would be a huge game changer is cold fusion, if that is possible.
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Mikey
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Re: Is a massive new technology disruption on the horizon?

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Wolfman wrote:The other item that would be a huge game changer is cold fusion, if that is possible.
I thought Coors already did that.
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Re: Is a massive new technology disruption on the horizon?

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I don't think cold fusion will happen, but I was talking to a TSA manager friend of mine who is a retired Navy Nuke officer about the latest advances in nuke technology. He says they have figured out how to build reactors that use the fuel of old reactors which is currently considered nuke waste.

He said they are inherently very safe to operate and they solve the problem of what to do with nuke waste we are currently spending a lot of money keeping contained. Apparently the Frenchies and into this big, as are the chinks. He said it is pretty much the solution to our electric power needs, but unfortunately, Nuke power just has too bad of a name thanks to all the anti-nuke propaganda that has been around in the 40 years since TMI.

Funny how progressive idiots who claim to be all about green technology run screaming in the other direction at the mere mention of nuke power.

Nuke power in this country has an amazing safety record. More people have gotten dead going for rides with Ted Kennedy than 60+ years of commercial nuke power.
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Re: Is a massive new technology disruption on the horizon?

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Wolfman wrote:We're not about to run out of oil any time soon. I think there are huge reserves still available under the earth's crust and abiogenesis is stiil a possibility, although it has been pooh-poohed by many.
According to the guy in the video, if what he predicts over the next 6 or 7 years actually happens and we are using mostly electric cars and a lot of PV with storage, the demand for oil will drop by at least 30%, resulting in price to drop to about $25/bbl. This will render all but the conventional extraction methods non-competitive and unnecessary for the foreseeable future.
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Re: Is a massive new technology disruption on the horizon?

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smackaholic wrote: Funny how progressive idiots who claim to be all about green technology run screaming in the other direction at the mere mention of nuke power.

Nuke power in this country has an amazing safety record. More people have gotten dead going for rides with Ted Kennedy than 60+ years of commercial nuke power.
A live bomb has a perfect safety record too, until it hits the ground.

https://www.surfrider.org/coastal-blog/ ... -canisters

I don't suppose you live anywhere near a nuclear plant or spent fuel storage facility.
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Re: Is a massive new technology disruption on the horizon?

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Mikey wrote:
smackaholic wrote: Funny how progressive idiots who claim to be all about green technology run screaming in the other direction at the mere mention of nuke power.

Nuke power in this country has an amazing safety record. More people have gotten dead going for rides with Ted Kennedy than 60+ years of commercial nuke power.
A live bomb has a perfect safety record too, until it hits the ground.

https://www.surfrider.org/coastal-blog/ ... -canisters

I don't suppose you live anywhere near a nuclear plant or spent fuel storage facility.
About 30-40 miles from Ct Yankee (Ct's first plant, been shut down for 15-20 years. Has spent fuel on site. Maybe 40-50 miles from Millstone ! and !!. Newest plant. Still active.

So, 60+ years of no nuke incidents is not good enough for you? I guess you'd rather we just keep putting up windmills that have plenty of enviromental issues.
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Re: Is a massive new technology disruption on the horizon?

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Papa Willie wrote:If you look at how technology has advanced in most areas over the last 50 years or so, batter power is one that is severely lagging.
Yeah, I remember when I was a little kid, we had battery-powered lawnmowers that kicked the shit of of 110vac mowers. And everyone had a cordless hedge trimmer, and sat around laughing about how much better they were than their corded counterparts. And the corless drills we had back then... crazy.

And the old electric cars we had at the shop I worked at (it was once a CityCar dealer in the early 70's) with the 6 golf cart batteries (BCI Group 2HT) that would make it 25 miles at 30MPH (if the batteries were new) were all the rage.


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Is a massive new technology disruption on the horizon?

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That is why I’m interested in this energy storage business down here in Texas. Pretty soon demand is going to increase exponentially as stated in video and if you start a satellite office and book the contracts and hire contractors to perform the work, then you’re on the ground level of something huge.

I remember a federal mandate coming down with led abatement to all commercial and industrial structures/equipment. This type of work required building temporary enclosures around said structures and vacuuming led through outdoor air conditioning units after it had been sand blasted. This absolutely opened the door for many businesses to ramp up this portion of their business and also start new ones. My friend left the golf business and got on the ground level with two guys who had a few machines and a handful of techs here in Houston. 10 years later and now they have operations in multiple states and in Australia. My buddy is now over all of the Houston area and is swimming in cash. He now just entertains clients with the company fishing boat, takes them golfing and to the company hunting lease. The only time he has to make a site visit is when something doesn’t go right and it’s rare because the techs have a simple SOP to follow.

That is why I’m thinking energy storage and solar systems is worth taking a look at currently should the demand be there in the next few years


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Re: Is a massive new technology disruption on the horizon?

Post by Rooster »

After some reflection on this topic, it occurs to me that computing may be where the next giant step forward takes place. Moore’s Law, which states that the chips double and costs halve, every year, has slowed down. Quantum computing may revolutionize speed and power of it ic it can be made into reality.
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