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Re: Jim Webb--Kicking McCain's Ass (easily)
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 9:14 am
by Terry in Crapchester
poptart wrote:Terry, how many more times do you plan on posting that gay little map between now and November 4th?
The thing shows a cute purple ring around Ohio -- signifying 'barely Dem' -- and there ain't no fucking way Ohio is going to Obullshitter.
Thought you might like to know.
It also shows a "cute purple" (actually blue) ring around Colorado, Indiana and Virginia -- states that have gone Democratic in Presidential elections a combined total of one time since 1964. If Obama carries just one of those, McCain is fucked. If he carries all three, it'll be a long night for the Republicans.
As for Ohio . . .
Things are a lot different there from where they were in '04. The Republicans pretty much ran that state into the ground. Most of them got tossed out in '06.
Thought you might like to know.
Re: Jim Webb--Kicking McCain's Ass (easily)
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 10:34 am
by poptart
I'm here to tell you, Terry, that Ohio 'barely Dem' is phoney baloney.
It's the very definition of a hopeful dream.
It most definitely should at least read, 'barely GOP'.
There are a whole slew of reasons why Obullshitter won't win that state and at the top of the list is fact that while blacks make up a 'decent' portion of the population (12%), they are poor and isolated and they historically just simply don't vote.
But if you trust that map so much that you keep posting it and defending it's contents, let's put a sig bet on who wins Ohio.
In?
Re: Jim Webb--Kicking McCain's Ass (easily)
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 11:20 am
by Terry in Crapchester
I never said that Obama definitely will win Ohio.
Polls are nothing more than a snapshot, with of course, a margin of error.
What that poll is showing is that right now, Obama probably would win Ohio. But Obama's lead in that poll is within the statistical margin of error, so it's possible that he could lose.
But if you focus too much on Ohio, you lose sight of the big picture. What I have been saying is that at this point, the election is Obama's to lose. The map I posted backs that up.
You see, Obama has considerably more margin for error, at least at this point, than McCain does. Obama could lose the two states showing as a statistical tie (Missouri and North Dakota) and lose Ohio as well, and still win the election. And there are also three states with 11 combined electoral votes (Alaska, Nevada and South Dakota) showing as barely GOP. Although all are small states, given McCain's predicament, it would be disastrous for him if he were to lose any of them.
If you take out the states showing as barely Dem/barely GOP/exactly tied, Obama has a lead of 246-193, with 99 electoral votes to be decided. Let's do a little exercise here. I'll give all the barely GOP states, as well as the tied states and Ohio, to McCain. Even in that scenario, Obama still leads 246-238, with 54 more still to go. Even in that scenario, Obama needs to win only Pennsylvania and one of the three remaining states (Colorado, Indiana and Virginia) to win the election. Alternately, even if he were to lose Pennsylvania, he could still win the election by winning both Indiana and Virginia.
In other words, there are ten states on that map that are considered barely Dem, barely GOP or exactly tied. If Obama wins Pennsylvania, McCain would need to sweep the remaining nine to win the election. Considering that Obama is likely to have an advantage in finances, I'd say that's unlikely. The fact that a number of states in these categories are usually reliably Republican states (e.g., Alaska, Colorado, Indiana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Virginia) in Presidential elections makes it all the more difficult for McCain.
Re: Jim Webb--Kicking McCain's Ass (easily)
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 1:15 pm
by poptart
I'll take all of that as a NO on a sig bet on Ohio. haha
I read what you posted, Terry, and it's all interesting ... and still early.
Is Montana really weak Dem?
Is Indiana really barely Dem?
As I see it right now, McCain wins both of those ... and Missouri.
Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia.
These states will tell the tale in '08, IMO.
Both candidates have problems.
Obama needs a real good turnout from balcks and 'kids'.
Good luck wit dat.
McCain needs to somehow get the republican base to build a strong HATRED for Obama, to get 'em out to vote him DOWN, because they aren't going to enthusiastically get out to support him.
I pretty much hate both candidates with a passion.
Re: Jim Webb--Kicking McCain's Ass (easily)
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 2:14 pm
by PSUFAN
Obama certainly seems to be getting the support of the African-American community - from what I've seen. If I were working for his campaign, I would not take for granted that people are currently registered to vote, that they know where to vote, etc.
Brace yourselves - we're going to hear a lot about people being "denied access to the polls"...and a lot of this will really be because they simply weren't registered, or they are registered in voting districts that they no longer live in, etc.
Re: Jim Webb--Kicking McCain's Ass (easily)
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 2:15 pm
by PSUFAN
I pretty much hate both candidates with a passion.
Seems a little strong fer you, pop. What gives?
Re: Jim Webb--Kicking McCain's Ass (easily)
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 2:25 pm
by poptart
They're both big government open-border socialists.
Not much there to like.
On top of that, neither guy has shown himself to be remotely trustworthy.
'Hate' was a bit strong though, thanks.
I repent.
I hope their dogs like them.
Re: Jim Webb--Kicking McCain's Ass (easily)
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 2:29 pm
by Cuda
mvscal wrote:Terry in Crapchester wrote:Considering that the Democratic convention hasn't even been held yet . . .
Is that supposed to change something?
If the farce of a convention doesn't make Onogga look like a total rube, the impending riots will.
http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_9882885?source=bb" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Denver police propose law to take pipes, chains out of protesters' hands
By Christopher N. Osher
The Denver Post
A draft law proposed by the Denver Police Department would ban the possession by protesters of materials such as weighted pipes and chains and items that can make urine and feces bombs.
Police say that such materials are potentially dangerous. The City Council Safety Committee will review the proposal July 23.
An earlier version also would have made it unlawful to possess bulletproof vests and gas masks.
Safety Manager Al LaCabe, who oversees the police department, said the proposed ordinance requires authorities, before they make an arrest, to find an intent to use the material to obstruct the public's right to move freely.
"We certainly don't want to interfere with anyone's First Amendment rights and the right to be heard," LaCabe said. "But it has to be done in such a way that it does not obstruct or endanger the general public or the police department."
Denver Councilman Doug Linkhart, who chairs the safety committee, objected to the original proposal that banned gas masks and bulletproof vests. He said many of his concerns have been eased.
Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper said in a statement that he supported the proposal: "Our manager of safety, police chief and police officers have requested this ordinance to help them protect public safety."
The proposed ordinance would ban material, such as weighted pipe and chains, to fashion what are known as "sleeping dragons." Protesters have chained themselves to such devices at other protests to make it difficult for police to arrest and remove them.
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2 ... g-kumbaya/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Tent State at Denver's City Park? Not all singing 'Kumbaya'
By John C. Ensslin, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Adam Jung, organizer of the planned Tent State University war protest in City Park, fielded questions from an audience of about 50 south City Park neighbors Wednesday night.
Then he asked one of his own: How many oppose allowing the anticipated 20,000 college-age students to camp out overnight for four nights, having them disperse every evening at curfew?
About half the hands went up in the penthouse of the Montview Manor, a high-rise apartment building overlooking the south end of the park.
Jung then asked: Who favors letting the group sleep overnight in the park? About half of the residents put their hands up.
That moment captured some of the ambivalence that the neighborhood has expressed toward the protest group, which wants to hold talks, concerts and encourage activism among an age group better known for apathy.
One resident, Katy Kupecz, said they admired what Jung is trying to do.
"I'm totally impressed, not only by his organizational skills, but all the thoughtful preparation he has for this," she said. "I think people in the neighborhood are freaked about this being Woodstock, but this is the anti-Woodstock."
Just as many residents voiced doubts about Jung's ability to stage the event without creating noise, traffic and parking problems for the neighborhood - plus the damage that such a large group would do to an already stressed park. They also had doubts about Jung's pledge that his group would work to restore the park.
"I just think it's overwhelming," said Cynthia Vaida, concerned when she heard that nearly all of Tent State's previous events were done on college campuses.
Kevin Jones, who raised his hand as opposed to the overnight camping, said later he was ambivalent, citing worries about where the group would go once it disperses.
He said he appreciates Tent State organizers' attempts to keep the neighbors in the loop, but he questions what he sees as a permit application flawed by the premise that people won't try to camp out in the park overnight.
"I think the city and the police and the parks are going to be stressed during the convention," he said, looking across at the land where Tent State wants to hold its event. "That grass is not going to survive."
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2 ... s-arrests/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
5 hippies arrested in brawl
Five members of the "Rainbow Family" - a loose-knit band of hippies best known for large gatherings each July - were arrested Tuesday night by Boulder County sheriff's deputies after a violent brawl broke out at the group's campsite near Ward.
Deputies responded about 6:30 p.m. to a report that a fight had broken out among a group of a dozen people camping in the area of Ruby Gulch, on state Forest Service property along the Peak to Peak Highway between Nederland and Ward.
When deputies arrived, witnesses reported that one man, a Nederland resident aged 34 or 35, was hit in the back of the head multiple times with a shovel and possibly stabbed in the neck during the fight, sheriff's Sgt. Brian Lindsey said.
Re: Jim Webb--Kicking McCain's Ass (easily)
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 2:32 pm
by PSUFAN
big government open-border socialists
It looks like it's our destiny to be led by just such a pol. I think there is still a lot of room for someone to step up and pretend otherwise, like W did, but once the dust Rove kicks up clears, most folks start to see a little more clearly.
We're not operating in the Wild West any more. The closest we're getting to that is having an idiot POTUS whose hobby is clearing brush on his ranch...and I think just about everybody is sick of
that shit for a while.
Re: Jim Webb--Kicking McCain's Ass (easily)
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 2:38 pm
by Cuda
here's a better story on the rainbow hippies.
http://www.dailycamera.com/news/2008/ju ... amily-bra/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
the comments are freaking hilarious
They'll be part of the Tent-State crowd of course.
Re: Jim Webb--Kicking McCain's Ass (easily)
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 3:32 pm
by BSmack
PSUFAN wrote:Obama certainly seems to be getting the support of the African-American community - from what I've seen. If I were working for his campaign, I would not take for granted that people are currently registered to vote, that they know where to vote, etc.
Brace yourselves - we're going to hear a lot about people being "denied access to the polls"...and a lot of this will really be because they simply weren't registered, or they are registered in voting districts that they no longer live in, etc.
In this day and age, I don't understand what is wrong with same day walk up registration so long as said registrant is able to provide valid ID showing residence for the district he intends to vote in.
Re: Jim Webb--Kicking McCain's Ass (easily)
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 4:27 pm
by War Wagon
poptart wrote:
As I see it right now, McCain wins both of those ... and Missouri.
Well, there you have it. As goes Missouri, so goes the election. They don't call it the "bellweather" state for nothing.
Re: Jim Webb--Kicking McCain's Ass (easily)
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 4:34 pm
by PSUFAN
Yeah. I think they call it that because they can't spell Bell Curve.
Re: Jim Webb--Kicking McCain's Ass (easily)
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 10:26 pm
by LTS TRN 2
poptart wrote:I'm here to tell you, Terry, that Ohio 'barely Dem' is phoney baloney.
It's the very definition of a hopeful dream.
It most definitely should at least read, 'barely GOP'.
There are a whole slew of reasons why Obullshitter won't win that state and at the top of the list is fact that while blacks make up a 'decent' portion of the population (12%), they are poor and isolated and they historically just simply don't vote.
But if you trust that map so much that you keep posting it and defending it's contents, let's put a sig bet on who wins Ohio.
In?
P-tart, you seem to forget that Kerry actually won Ohio by several HUNDRED THOUSAND votes in '04, but due to the most egregious voter fraud in American history, these votes were annulled, lost, or just not counted. How did this happen? As Crapper pointed out, the state government was in the hands of demented criminals (the GOP, who, along with their steady parade of outted perverts also produce a bounty of straight up criminals). Well, the specific vile contigency in Columbus has been voted out and replaced by nominally honest and sane Democrats, and guess what?....the GOP is going to get mega-hosed in the heartland. And this despite the best efforts of right-wing racists and AIPAC operatives, etc.
Re: Jim Webb--Kicking McCain's Ass (easily)
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 10:56 pm
by Wolfman
In this day and age, I don't understand what is wrong with same day walk up registration so long as said registrant is able to provide valid ID showing residence for the district he intends to vote in.
Bri---are you serious ?? You never had a false ID to get served at a bar or buy a 6 pack at the store ? An ID with no way to verify its authenticity is no ID at all !
Some criminals get multiple driver's licenses from multiple states. Would it be a stretch for a political party to manufacture IDs and send out a small army of "voters" to key districts and swing an election. Hell--the Daley machine in Chicago does it with dead people !
It was bad enough in many small college communities when they allowed the college kids to vote in local elections where they went to school and not where the actually "lived".
Re: Jim Webb--Kicking McCain's Ass (easily)
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 11:11 pm
by Mikey
So, citizens of voting age shouldn't be allowed to vote in the community in which they "live" nine months out of the year?
You really are a senile old prick.
Re: Jim Webb--Kicking McCain's Ass (easily)
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 11:12 pm
by Mikey
Wolfman wrote:
Bri---are you serious ?? You never had a false ID to get served at a bar or buy a 6 pack at the store ? An ID with no way to verify its authenticity is no ID at all !
Some criminals get multiple driver's licenses from multiple states. Would it be a stretch for a political party to manufacture IDs and send out a small army of "voters" to key districts and swing an election. Hell--the Daley machine in Chicago does it with dead people !
What ID did you have to provide to register?
Re: Jim Webb--Kicking McCain's Ass (easily)
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 11:47 am
by Terry in Crapchester
poptart wrote:I'll take all of that as a NO on a sig bet on Ohio. haha
I'll do a sig bet on the entire general election. Game?
Btw, here's an interesting read on the election, although as you mentioned, it's still early.
http://news.yahoo.com/page/election-200 ... ted-voters" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Poll: McCain's backers less fired up than Obama's
By ALAN FRAM, Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) — John McCain is facing an excitement deficit.
While overall interest in the presidential campaign has swelled since last fall, backers of Barack Obama are more fired up and express more loyalty to their candidate than McCain's do, a poll by The Associated Press and Yahoo News showed Friday. In addition, individual groups backing Obama — African-Americans, Democrats and liberals — are more enthusiastic than whites, Republicans and conservatives, who are more aligned with McCain, the GOP senator from Arizona.
Obama faces hurdles of his own. The poll shows lagging fervor for the Democratic senator from Illinois by supporters of his vanquished rival, Hillary Rodham Clinton. And there are lots of dispirited and undecided independents, who are expected to be pivotal on an Election Day now less then four months off.
The passion and interest shown by blocs of voters are important because they affect who will be motivated to vote. For now, the numbers favor Obama: 38 percent of his supporters say the election is exciting compared to 9 percent of McCain's. Sixty-five percent of Obama's backers say they are hopeful about the campaign, double McCain's, and the Democrat's supporters are three times likelier to express pride.
"Being African-American, you know, I do have some biases," said John Douglas, 67, of Villa Rica, Ga., an Obama supporter. He said the pride and thrill he feels about the possibility of the first black president "has been building up for my lifetime, it's been building up since the inception of our country."
Half of McCain's supporters say the race makes them frustrated, more than double Obama's backers who say so. By 2-to-1 or more, McCain backers are likelier than Obama's to say the campaign makes them bored, angry and helpless. And while 16 percent of those preferring Obama say they may change their candidate, 24 percent of McCain's say they might do the same.
"I don't feel I have a choice I can really get behind," said Carol Hall, 63, a Republican from Yorktown, Va., who prefers McCain but said he isn't conservative enough, yet doesn't trust Obama. "I think they're pitiful choices."
The AP-Yahoo News poll, conducted by Knowledge Networks, has measured the political sentiments of the same 2,000 adults since November. While 45 percent expressed a great deal or quite a bit of interest in the campaign back then, 60 percent say so now, but it's Obama supporters whose energy has grown more:
— More than twice as many Democrats than Republicans have gotten more excited about the campaign since the fall, 22 percent to 9 percent. Forty-seven percent of Republicans and 29 percent of Democrats express frustration.
— Blacks are three times likelier than whites to be more excited about the election than they were last fall, 33 percent to 11 percent. They are also six times likelier to be more proud, 43 percent to 7 percent, and twice as likely to be more interested and hopeful. Right now, 44 percent of whites and just 11 percent of blacks say the election frustrates them, and whites are far likelier to say they feel angry and helpless.
— Liberals are three times likelier than conservatives to be more excited than they were and twice as likely to be more proud. Nineteen percent of conservatives feel more helpless, compared to 9 percent of liberals.
— Overall, 44 percent of Obama voters have grown more interested in the campaign since the fall, compared to 35 percent of McCain's. Currently, seven in 10 Obama backers say the campaign interests them, as do six in 10 of McCain's.
"It's exciting because it looks like we've got a winner," said Susan Gates, 55, a Democrat from Chelmsford, Mass.
All Democrats don't feel that way. Overall, 31 percent of those supporting Obama are Democrats who preferred Clinton during the party's prolonged primary battle this spring, and they are less enthused than those who have backed Obama longer.
Just 12 percent of former Clinton supporters say they are excited about the campaign, one-third the excitement level among Obama's longer-term backers. A fifth of them say the election makes them feel frustrated and helpless, and about as many say they may still change their minds, double the number of longtime Obama loyalists who say that.
"I was really hoping Hillary would pull it off," said Doreen Malinoski, 42, of Montclair, Calif., a Democrat who said she is uneasy with Obama's calls for change. "I mean, this is the best we can come up with?"
Independents, whom both McCain and Obama are avidly pursuing, remain underwhelmed. Only 21 percent find the election interesting — down from 31 percent in November — and just 7 percent say it's exciting. Substantial numbers say they feel frustrated, helpless and even bored.
Independents are about evenly divided between the two candidates, with about a quarter behind each. Four in 10 remain undecided, and half say they could still change their minds.
"I really don't like some of McCain's policies, yet I don't know that much about Obama," said Philip Doenges, 46, an independent from Indianapolis. "I'd kind of like someone who hasn't been in Washington."
The AP-Yahoo News poll of 1,759 adults was conducted from June 13-23 and has an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. Included were interviews with 844 Democrats and 637 Republicans, for whom the margins of sampling error are plus or minus 3.4 points and 3.9 points, respectively.
The poll was conducted over the Internet by Knowledge Networks, which initially contacted people using traditional telephone polling methods and followed with online interviews. People chosen for the study who had no Internet access were given it for free.
Also, as I've said before, McCain has a two-pronged Bush problem. The more obvious problem is that Bush is a President from his own party with a lousy overall approval rating. But if that were the only problem, it would be relatively easily solved. Just run away from Bush.
The other part of the problem complicates things for McCain. While he does have a weak overall approval rating, Bush is not completely weakened as a political figure. He still has relatively strong support among his base -- an approval rating among registered Republicans in the high 60's, compared to an overall approval rating in the high 20's. And he can raise funds like no other, at least on the Republican side. Coincidentally, these strengths dovetail perfectly with McCain's biggest political weaknesses.
The upshot of all of this is that McCain will have to run toward Bush to shore up his support among the Republican base and keep his campaign coffers full. At the same time, he'll have to run away from Bush to attract the moderate independent voters he'll need if he is to have any chance of winning the election. That'll be a neat trick, if he can pull it off. And Obama has no similar problem.
Re: Jim Webb--Kicking McCain's Ass (easily)
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 12:00 pm
by poptart
No thanks on a sig bet for the entire election, Terry.
While I think, at this point, that McCain will win a very close election, I don't have confidence enough to bet on it.
And as I've said, I have no horse in this race at all.
Re: Jim Webb--Kicking McCain's Ass (easily)
Posted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 6:34 am
by LTS TRN 2
Big mistake.
Biden is an AIPAC stooge.
Now McCain doesn't have to worry about sidling up to...ugh..Lieberman. But, Casino Greeter is risky for (hopefully) obvious reasons.
Jim Webb was the best choice, and would have insured victory--which these days means ANY deviation from the catastrophic incompetent nightmare of Chimp/Cheney/Rove, etc.
Basically, we're fucked, but let's at least string up a few of these malignant criminals along the way, eh?
WW
Re: Jim Webb--Kicking McCain's Ass (easily)
Posted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 11:40 pm
by Terry in Crapchester
Jesus. H. Christ.
Nicky, mvscal and I actually agree on a political topic. Doesn't SI still have its "This Week's Sign of the Apocalypse?" If so, somebody had better alert them, pronto.
Of all the people Obama could have picked . . . Biden? WTF was he thinking? Or not?
Yes, Biden does shore up one of the more legitimate criticisms of Obama, i.e., that he lacks experience. But so do any of a number of other potential VP's, the overwhelming majority of whom, unlike Biden, did not serve up a ready-made campaign commercial to the GOP by condescendingly referring to Obama as an "articulate black." This was the worst choice he could possibly have made among people not named Hillary Clinton.
To top it all off, he represents a state that's pretty much safe for Obama no matter what.
No way to spin this. Just a horrible, horrible pick. I only hope that this isn't fatal, and that Nicky is wrong, that Cheney is nothing more than an aberration and that the office of the Vice-Presidency will shortly return to its traditional historical irrelevance.
Re: Jim Webb--Kicking McCain's Ass (easily)
Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 3:39 pm
by RumpleForeskin
mvscal wrote:It doesn't seem anybody wants to win this election.
Ron Paul
Re: Jim Webb--Kicking McCain's Ass (easily)
Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:13 pm
by Sirfindafold
Terry in Crapchester wrote:This was the worst choice he could possibly have made among people not named Hillary Clinton.
Choice? Maybe Biden was his only option.
They sure as fuck aren't lining up to be on the same ticket with an America-Hating, Unexperienced, socialist, half-breed Muslim.
Re: Jim Webb--Kicking McCain's Ass (easily)
Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 3:18 am
by RadioFan
Sirgulpaload wrote:They sure as fuck aren't lining up to be on the same ticket with an America-Hating, Unexperienced, socialist, half-breed Muslim.
Nice "take."
The differences between the Shillery and Obama supporters are relatively miniscule compared to the rift between the moderates (i.e. sane fiscal conservatives) and the thumping nutjobs in the GOP.
Biden is a brawler, who balances out Obama's perceived "niceness" to the opposition. Not the greatest pick, but by far not the worst.
Re: Jim Webb--Kicking McCain's Ass (easily)
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 12:13 am
by Diogenes
RumpleForeskin wrote:mvscal wrote:It doesn't seem anybody wants to win this election.
Ron Paul
He said anybody, not nobody.