Nice to finally play again

[MuchoBulls]

The last 2 weeks have been torture. I was worried about our team being flat and not finishing with the long layoff. We started out great and built a nice lead, but we got way too conservative with the big lead and it allowed Rutgers to get within 6 points.

The defense showed up and forced 6 turnovers, resulting in 28 points and that was the game.

Time for a few beers.

[PSUFAN]

Wow! Nice win for you guys. Rutgers is definitely an improved squad with some talent. I'm honestly surprised at this result, but I'm definitely pleased!

[MuchoBulls]

I was worried about how we would come out after having such a long layoff. The D played very well, outside of letting a few big runs right up the middle.

Turnovers are a huge part of the game and here is why:

In 4 USF wins - 1 turnover

In 3 USF losses - 10 turnovers

As long as we don't overlook anyone and protect the ball we have an outside shot of playing WVU for the Big East title on 12/3.

A first ever bowl game would be nice as well since I didn't think this team could win more than 5 games with this schedule.

[Terry in Crapchester]

Hey, Mucho, are they going to make up the West Virginia game? Seems like December 3 is the only open date for you. But I can definitely seeing it possibly affecting your bowl eligibility. It might also be necessary for West Virginia to play it -- now that the NCAA has made 8 teams the minimum for each conference, West Virginia might need to play a 7th conference game in order to be recognized as the Big East champ and get a BCS bid.

[MuchoBulls]

Terry, 12/3 is the new date for the game. If we can't win 2 of the next 3 games (@Syracuse, Cincinnati, @UConn), then we don't deserve to go to a Bowl game.

6-5 would get us to one of the Big East affiliated games, provided ND doesn't lose. WVU will win out, so that would eliminate PITT, and we could knock out Cincy and UConn, the only other teams that could still get to 6 wins.

If, and I don't see this happening, we win out, then 12/3 is for the Big East Championship.

[Terry in Crapchester]

6-5 would get us to one of the Big East affiliated games, provided ND doesn't lose. WVU will win out, so that would eliminate PITT, and we could knock out Cincy and UConn, the only other teams that could still get to 6 wins.

Even if ND doesn't wind up with a BCS at-large bid, I see you bowling somewhere with 6 wins out of a BCS conference. In particular, the Motor City Bowl bid, IIRC, goes to the Big East if the Big Ten doesn't have sufficient bowl-eligible teams and the Big East has a surplus. As I posted on the Board Bitch Trifecta thread, Iowa, Michigan State and Indiana all have a tough road to hoe to get to six wins. And if tOSU winds up with an at-large BCS bid (as I see it, contention for the BCS at-large bids is down to five teams: ND, tOSU, Oregon, Georgia and Va Tech, throw in Alabama or Texas in the event either goes undefeated through the regular season then loses in the conference championship game), that makes it all the more likely that the Motor City will open up.

If that happens, look for the Motor City and Meineke Car Care Bowls to cut a deal sending Rutgers to the Motor City and USF to the Meineke Car Care Bowl. Just my $.02.

[Cicero]

If USF makes a bowl along w/ UCF, then the state of Florida would have 5 Bowl Teams. I wonder if any other state can boast that. Maybe Cali w/ Cal, USC, UCLA and Fresneck, but I cant think of a Fifth.

[MuchoBulls]

Sounds pretty accurate to me Terry. I don't see ND losing one of their remaining games, so they will be in the BCS as one of the at large teams.

If that is the case, then the Big East will fill all of their allotted bowl games. The best thing that could happen for USF (aside from winning out), would be for:

WVU to beat Cincinnati - Game @ Cincinnati
Pitt to beat UConn - Game @ Pitt
USF to beat Syracuse - Game @ Syracuse
USF to beat Cincinnati - Game @ USF
WVU to beat Pitt - Game @ WVU
USF to beat UConn - Game @ UConn

If this took place, Pitt, Cincinnati, and UConn would have 6 losses and USF win have at minimum 7 wins going into the WVU game on 12/3.

If we end up 7-4 or 6-5, I think we will get the invite to the Meineke Bowl. It sounds as if Rutgers will go to the Insight Bowl regardless of their finish. Louisville is just about a lock to go to the Gator Bowl, unless they lose once, which could open up the door for USF.

Lots of football left to be played, but it's nice to think about going to a bowl game when we were not supposed to do much this season.

Go ND!!

[Mr T]

Maybe we will get two florida teams in the BCS...

Maybe.

[Terry in Crapchester]

Sounds pretty accurate to me Terry. I don't see ND losing one of their remaining games, so they will be in the BCS as one of the at large teams.

I don't share your confidence on this one. I think we will win out (this is far and away the easiest 3-game stretch on our schedule at any point, possible exception for the MSU-Washington-Purdue stretch, except that we lost to MSU), but we're not guaranteed an at-large bid unless we're Top Six, and I don't see that happening.

As for the remaining teams in contention for an at-large bid, Oregon has only one loss. They don't have anything approaching ND's tradition, but with the Fiesta probably having two slots to fill, as the only team west of the Mississippi in realistic contention for a BCS at-large bid right now, they may have a huge geographic advantage over the other teams.

If that is the case, then the Big East will fill all of their allotted bowl games. The best thing that could happen for USF (aside from winning out), would be for:

WVU to beat Cincinnati - Game @ Cincinnati
Pitt to beat UConn - Game @ Pitt
USF to beat Syracuse - Game @ Syracuse
USF to beat Cincinnati - Game @ USF
WVU to beat Pitt - Game @ WVU
USF to beat UConn - Game @ UConn

If this took place, Pitt, Cincinnati, and UConn would have 6 losses and USF win have at minimum 7 wins going into the WVU game on 12/3.

Sounds about right. Other than USF, I'd give UConn the best chance of getting to 6 wins with that mix.

If we end up 7-4 or 6-5, I think we will get the invite to the Meineke Bowl. It sounds as if Rutgers will go to the Insight Bowl regardless of their finish. Louisville is just about a lock to go to the Gator Bowl, unless they lose once, which could open up the door for USF.

This, of course, assumes that ND goes to the BCS, or to the Cotton Bowl (Cotton can take ND or a Big East team as opposed to a SEC team once in a four-year period, that could happen this year if ND gets passed over for the BCS and LSU winds up in the BCS). If ND is passed over by both the BCS and the Cotton Bowl, they'd be a mortal lock for the Gator, even with one more loss along the way. That would move Louisville down to the Insight. As I said before, it's beginning to look like the Motor City Bowl might open up, so if there's a surplus of Big East teams, I think Rutgers could be headed there.

Agree with you that the Gator Bowl would probably rather have USF than Louisville, in that USF would almost certainly travel better to that game. But if Louisville finishes 9-2 and USF finishes 7-4, they don't have that option available.

Go ND!!

RACK! :D

[MuchoBulls]

Sounds about right. Other than USF, I'd give UConn the best chance of getting to 6 wins with that mix.

One game I forgot to put in there, since I thought it wouldn't have bearing on USF, is that UConn plays Louisville at home on 12/3. Provided Pitt beats UConn on Saturday I don't see the Huskies winning both games against USF and Louisville.

Seeing as WVU rolled Cincinnati last night I think we can give the Bearcats their 6th loss next weekend. I still worry about Pitt getting to 6 wins because they should beat UConn this weekend and they could beat WVU since it is a rivalry game.

Bottom line is that we need to take care of our own business.