The rational UM-OSU thread.
Posted: Mon Nov 14, 2005 8:58 pm
I know there are several threads on this topic, I don't care here's another. It seems I've managed to use up most of my hate on MSU. I've not been able to muster up the same hate that used to burn deep inside me for OSU. I really do not hate them with the same intensity that they seem to have for us. I won't waste my time in threads where infantile terms like scUM or oSUcks. I won't stoop to "clever" monickers like Gargamel, or Mr. Rogers. I won't use the time tested yet lame alumni jokes like "pay for the pizza" or "you want fries with that?". Instead I will attempt to break this game down in logical, unemotional, football savvy terms, while still predicting a Michigan victory in the end. Like it could happen any other way.
Here goes:
UM offense vs. OSU defense
OSU is #1 in the conference against the run giving up a mere 78.7 ypg., and 2.4 per rush. UM is averaging 177 ypg and 4.1 per attempt. This will come down to Mike Hart. If he plays and is close to healthy it will help UM's cause. His backups have been improvig of late, but UM needs Hart to be able to establish any kind of ground attack. OSU also has 38 sacks to lead the league. As far as passing... OSU is tops in the league here as well. They're giving up 198 yards per game while UM is averaging 218. It stands to reason that UM's line needs to give Henne time to find Avant, Breaston, Manningham, Tabb, Bass, Massaquoi, and Ecker. The key is the play calling. If UM keeps it tight as they have in big games (until we find ourselves behind) then 14 or 17 points will be all UM can hope for. With some creativity, imagination, and the guts to play to win, they could put up 30.
Edge-OSU
UM defense vs. OSU offense
UM's D is 4th in the league in scoring allowing just 18.7 ppg. OSU's recent offensive outburst is good enough to bring their average up to 33.3 ppg. UM is allowing 137 ypg on the ground and just over 200 through the air. OSU is averaging 403 ypg with great balance of 196 rushing and 207 through the air. Given the choice I think UM tries to gang up against the run and force Smith to try and beat us with his arm. Of course the way he ran the ball last year, Herman will have his guys keying on Smith and trying to take away his running lanes when the pocket breaks down. I think UM matches up well against the OSU recievers. Holmes is more of a threat at wr than Ginn, but UM has an experienced defensive backfield that has picked off 10 passes this year. They are deep at safety as some youngsters gained alot of play time while the starters regained their health. OSU's play calling has been suspect much of the year. They have come on offensively of late and come into this matchup with some serious momentum. But in games against better defenses they have not fared well (UT and PSU).
Edge- UM
Special teams
This will be billed as Breaston vs. Ginn. Both have a world of talent, and both have underachieved this year. Both are capable of housing it at anytime. I doubt either will have much of a chance in the punting game as both teams are likely to kick the ball away from the returner. Neither team is giving up much on PR's with UM giving up just 1.9 yards per, and OSU just 1.3. I don't know about OSU, but UM has done a good job of kicking the ball off and forcing touchbacks all season. So the main impact may come on fg's. Huston and Rivas are 1,2 in the league with 18 and 17 fg's respectively. Rivas has missed 3 more kicks than Huston, but most were early on. He's been steady for the most part. Ginn and Breaston's stats mirror eachother's in the return categories.
Edge-Push
Coaching
Lloyd Carr vs. Jim Tressel. The vested Savior goes for an impressive 4-1 record vs. the school up north. Lloyd has an impressive w-l record vs. top ten teams. OSU and UM fans have griped about the offensive play-calling this season. In this series JT has the edge, overall I think Lloyd gets the nod.
Edge-Push
Intangibles
Ah yes, the dreaded intangibles. Those little things that don't show up in the boxscore. UM is at home. Now many will say that the Big House with it's aged alumni in attendance hardly creates a homefield advantage. But this is THE GAME. I've been to dozens of games there, and the House can rock for the big ones...OSU, ND, and the fags from E.Lansing. The electricity for The Game is unrivaled. The 97 game was the loudest I've ever heard, and the 100th meeting a couple years back was a close second. This aint Purdue, Iowa or Northwestern. Even the alum's know this isn't just another social event. Those who still have the lung capacity will join in the excitement and do their part.
The law of averages is squarely in UM's favor. There is little chance that JT can get to 4-1 against UM. 3-2 sounds better.
Edge-UM
This stacks up to be a classic. UM has done well in the underdog role this year. How dare the bookies make a home-dog in this series. OSU's offense is hitting on all cylanders lately. Their defense is tops in the conference. Michigan has played well on defense, but has been inconsistent offensively. UM has had their backs to the wall for over a month and has responded well. They've won 2 overtime games, and another on the games final play. They're battle tested and accustomes to tight games. This game lives up to the hype and will again show the nation why it is the greatest rivalry in all of sport.
Michigan-24
Ohio State-17
Do I have to root for MSU against Penn State????
Here goes:
UM offense vs. OSU defense
OSU is #1 in the conference against the run giving up a mere 78.7 ypg., and 2.4 per rush. UM is averaging 177 ypg and 4.1 per attempt. This will come down to Mike Hart. If he plays and is close to healthy it will help UM's cause. His backups have been improvig of late, but UM needs Hart to be able to establish any kind of ground attack. OSU also has 38 sacks to lead the league. As far as passing... OSU is tops in the league here as well. They're giving up 198 yards per game while UM is averaging 218. It stands to reason that UM's line needs to give Henne time to find Avant, Breaston, Manningham, Tabb, Bass, Massaquoi, and Ecker. The key is the play calling. If UM keeps it tight as they have in big games (until we find ourselves behind) then 14 or 17 points will be all UM can hope for. With some creativity, imagination, and the guts to play to win, they could put up 30.
Edge-OSU
UM defense vs. OSU offense
UM's D is 4th in the league in scoring allowing just 18.7 ppg. OSU's recent offensive outburst is good enough to bring their average up to 33.3 ppg. UM is allowing 137 ypg on the ground and just over 200 through the air. OSU is averaging 403 ypg with great balance of 196 rushing and 207 through the air. Given the choice I think UM tries to gang up against the run and force Smith to try and beat us with his arm. Of course the way he ran the ball last year, Herman will have his guys keying on Smith and trying to take away his running lanes when the pocket breaks down. I think UM matches up well against the OSU recievers. Holmes is more of a threat at wr than Ginn, but UM has an experienced defensive backfield that has picked off 10 passes this year. They are deep at safety as some youngsters gained alot of play time while the starters regained their health. OSU's play calling has been suspect much of the year. They have come on offensively of late and come into this matchup with some serious momentum. But in games against better defenses they have not fared well (UT and PSU).
Edge- UM
Special teams
This will be billed as Breaston vs. Ginn. Both have a world of talent, and both have underachieved this year. Both are capable of housing it at anytime. I doubt either will have much of a chance in the punting game as both teams are likely to kick the ball away from the returner. Neither team is giving up much on PR's with UM giving up just 1.9 yards per, and OSU just 1.3. I don't know about OSU, but UM has done a good job of kicking the ball off and forcing touchbacks all season. So the main impact may come on fg's. Huston and Rivas are 1,2 in the league with 18 and 17 fg's respectively. Rivas has missed 3 more kicks than Huston, but most were early on. He's been steady for the most part. Ginn and Breaston's stats mirror eachother's in the return categories.
Edge-Push
Coaching
Lloyd Carr vs. Jim Tressel. The vested Savior goes for an impressive 4-1 record vs. the school up north. Lloyd has an impressive w-l record vs. top ten teams. OSU and UM fans have griped about the offensive play-calling this season. In this series JT has the edge, overall I think Lloyd gets the nod.
Edge-Push
Intangibles
Ah yes, the dreaded intangibles. Those little things that don't show up in the boxscore. UM is at home. Now many will say that the Big House with it's aged alumni in attendance hardly creates a homefield advantage. But this is THE GAME. I've been to dozens of games there, and the House can rock for the big ones...OSU, ND, and the fags from E.Lansing. The electricity for The Game is unrivaled. The 97 game was the loudest I've ever heard, and the 100th meeting a couple years back was a close second. This aint Purdue, Iowa or Northwestern. Even the alum's know this isn't just another social event. Those who still have the lung capacity will join in the excitement and do their part.
The law of averages is squarely in UM's favor. There is little chance that JT can get to 4-1 against UM. 3-2 sounds better.
Edge-UM
This stacks up to be a classic. UM has done well in the underdog role this year. How dare the bookies make a home-dog in this series. OSU's offense is hitting on all cylanders lately. Their defense is tops in the conference. Michigan has played well on defense, but has been inconsistent offensively. UM has had their backs to the wall for over a month and has responded well. They've won 2 overtime games, and another on the games final play. They're battle tested and accustomes to tight games. This game lives up to the hype and will again show the nation why it is the greatest rivalry in all of sport.
Michigan-24
Ohio State-17
Do I have to root for MSU against Penn State????