T1B

exhibit A-

seattles schedule

Sep 11 @Jacksonville Lost 14-26
Sep 18 Atlanta Won 21-18
Sep 25 Arizona Won 37-12
Oct 2 @Washington Lost 17-20
Oct 9 @St. Louis Won 37-31
Oct 16 Houston Won 42-10
Oct 23 Dallas Won 13-10
Week 8 BYE
Nov 6 @Arizona Won 33-19
Nov 13 St. Louis Won 31-16
Nov 20 @San Francisco Won 27-25
Nov 27 N.Y. Giants Won 24-21
Dec 5 @Philadelphia Won 42-0
Dec 11 San Francisco Won 41-3
Dec 18 @Tennessee Won 28-24
Dec 24 Indianapolis Won 28-13
Jan 1 @Green Bay Lost 17-23

(laugh if you must)

besides their 2nd to last game vs indys scrubs (omitted for obvious reasons), seattle has played all of 3 teams that went to the playoffs- j ville, the skins and the giants. (obviously, only one of those teams is still standing). they lost 2 of those games. additionally, they had a couple of near disasters vs SF and Tenn.

take a look at sagarins strength of schedule- http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl05.htm

they are dead last in the entire NFL. the skins are 5th.

the hawks have 10 wins against teams with losing records.


alexander is a great RB, no doubt. but, a closer look at his season is telling- 18 of his TD's came against 4 of the worst teams in the league- Arizona (6), Houston (4), St. Louis (5), San Fran (3).

in each of the seahawks 3 losses, alexander was held under 100 yards.

can the skins hold alexander under 100?

exhibit B
-over the last 6 games, the skins have held opponents to a net everage of 81.6 yards rushing, allowing over 100 once (109 yards vs dallas) while holding tiki (1860 for the year) to 80 and cadillac (1178 in 14 games) to 49 yards on 18 carries.

that's better than chicago and tampa bay, #1 in scoring and yards respectively.

over that same span, the skins have rushed for an average of over 156 yards per game, being held under 100 once (95 vs tampa).

one last seattle stat- they are 17th in the league in total D.

MVP league rushing and scoring champ vs the #1 D vs the rush since december.

take the skins and the points.

...and G.O. just keeps on keepin' on. Rack 'em.





velocet

velocet wrote:...and G.O. just keeps on keepin' on. Rack 'em.





velocet

i have too much time on my hands.

as for the actual game and W/L's, i think alot will depend on the skins health. brunell has shown he's a different QB when he doesnt have his legs. still, he'll likely healthier than he was last week and seattle is not TB defensively.

portis, just when he was getting on a roll, is banged up. not good. i think betts is better than what we saw last week vs tampas stout D. moss and cooley dont get shut down 2 weeks in a row. i dont think the O comes close to last weeks performance.

its no secret that if they contain alexander, they have a very good shot. the D has been sick lately and that's not good for seattle. i just dont think seattle has played anyone and it will catch up with them. they are another team that is not as good as their record. the skins are tested.

skins 24
hawks 20

I honestly could give a shit who wins this game. I think if Seattle wins they go to the SB. If the Skins win, they get beat by Chi-Town and the Bears get to play the Colts in the SB.

one more relevant stat- take a look at this list

Philadelphia
Arizona
New Orleans
Tennessee
San Francisco
St. Louis
Houston

those are the bottom 7 defenses in scoring, in order.

seattle played all but one- new orleans.

6 games vs SL, SF, and arizona. 1 each vs philly, houston and tenn.

thats 9 games against the worst D's in the league.

meanwhile, in games vs dallas, wash, and j-ville, (all in the top 12) they scored 13, 17 and 14- scoring less than each team gives up on average.

seattle managed 21 and 24 points vs middle of the pack D's atlanta and the giants, barely above each teams average given up per game of 21.3 and 19.6.

in other words, of the 5 best defensive teams they played, they never scored more than 24 and scored 17 or less 3 times vs the 3 best D's.

that, my friend, is a trend.

When is the last time a playoff team was favored by 9+ points over a team they'd lost to earlier in the year?


Nice stats and all... but the Skins had better improve upon their dismal offensive performance if they're to keep this one close.

UCant Unretires Again wrote:When is the last time a playoff team was favored by 9+ points over a team they'd lost to earlier in the year?


Nice stats and all... but the Skins had better improve upon their dismal offensive performance if they're to keep this one close.

agreed. i attribute the bad performance to tampas D- they were excellent- and portis and brunell being dinged.

but, if the trend of seattle struggling vs actual NFL caliber defenses continues, the skins may not need that much. especially if the D can make it 3 games in a row with a score.

UCant Unretires Again wrote:Nice stats and all...

I like the one where he points out that many of Alexander's TDs came...are you sitting down?...against the teams in his own division that he plays twice a year.

If Seattle shows up ready to play some defense, and the Skins show up to total 120 yeards on offense, this one could get ugly. Don't know what the early spread is, but it could make it a tough pick. Seattle's D-Line really had it going towards the end of the season. I attended the throwaway game against Indy, and I don't think it would have mattered if they had Harrison or anyone else in the starting lineup. Indy's line was so far overmatched, they probably were looking at a "L" either way...but if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, wouldn't it be a merry christmas?

The Skins seem like they're getting where they are with outstanding linebacker play. Whether the LB play is good enough to stop Seattle's ground game appears to be the big question, not who Seattle played in the regular season. If the Hens can't get a good short passing game going with slants and outs, with the occasional deep ball to keep the secondary honest, I like Washington's chances. But if they don't get some LB containment in the middle early, this one could be a runaway.

Hard to say. I guess that's why they don't log these posts and decide the winner, and they go ahead and play the games.

Dinsdale wrote:Don't know what the early spread is.

I'll give ya a clue... the line is listed (sort of) somewhere in the same post of mine that you replied to.

Sea -9.

I wish they'd just log our posts to decide a winner. Pittsburgh would be 0-16.

Dinsdale wrote:

UCant Unretires Again wrote:Nice stats and all...

I like the one where he points out that many of Alexander's TDs came...are you sitting down?...against the teams in his own division that he plays twice a year.

correct. 14 in 6 games.

which leaves 14 others in 12 games, 3 vs indys backups and 4 others vs ghastly houston.

7 TD's in 7 games vs jax, atl, wash, dal, ny, philly, tenn, and GB. (one vs the 3 best D's he faced all year- j ville, dallas, and wash)


thank you for your contribution.

seattle is also 3-3 vs winning teams- including one win vs indys backups and 2 squeekers (3 points) vs dallas and the giants who are no longer with us.

not one good win in the bunch.

This isn't the upset of the year gwego. The skins should win this one rather easily.

What fantastic teams have the Skins beat up on this year to make them a stone cold lock?

True they played the #1 & #2 - they almost lost to Chicago (couldn't put up a TD) and lost to Tampa Bay. (I know they beat them yeterday- but 120 yards of offense? )

You're making a big deal about Seattle facing their division- well they had Arizona twice (8th ranked D), St Louis twice (30) and San Fran (32). Well-The skins got to face Dallas twice (10), the Philly twice (25) and the Giants (24). Other than the Bears, Buc and Cowboys- they faced no top 10 D's the rest of the year (I'll even give ya San Diego at 13). Other than that- they faced the Chiefs (25), Oakland (27), San Fran (32), St Louis (30), Seattle (17) and Denver (15). Their schdeule does not seem that much worse tha Seattle's...

I'm not saying the Skins don't have a shot- Any given Sunday- ya know? But thye were beat up by Tampa's D yesterday and I think that will take its toll going into the home field of a hot team (Something like 24-4 at home lately), coming off a bye week with a red hot RB who can put up yards and TD's...

BBMarley wrote:What fantastic teams have the Skins beat up on this year to make them a stone cold lock?

True they played the #1 & #2 - they almost lost to Chicago (couldn't put up a TD) and lost to Tampa Bay. (I know they beat them yeterday- but 120 yards of offense? )

You're making a big deal about Seattle facing their division- well they had Arizona twice (8th ranked D), St Louis twice (30) and San Fran (32). Well-The skins got to face Dallas twice (10), the Philly twice (25) and the Giants (24). Other than the Bears, Buc and Cowboys- they faced no top 10 D's the rest of the year (I'll even give ya San Diego at 13). Other than that- they faced the Chiefs (25), Oakland (27), San Fran (32), St Louis (30), Seattle (17) and Denver (15). Their schdeule does not seem that much worse tha Seattle's...

I'm not saying the Skins don't have a shot- Any given Sunday- ya know? But thye were beat up by Tampa's D yesterday and I think that will take its toll going into the home field of a hot team (Something like 24-4 at home lately), coming off a bye week with a red hot RB who can put up yards and TD's...

c'mon man. seattle has the 32nd toughest shedule in the league! (thats last for the rest of you in philly) the skins are 4th or 5th depending on what site you look at. are you kidding me with this shite?

Other than the Bears, Buc and Cowboys

good gawd. that's 1 game vs the #1 scoring D (also #2 in yards), 2 games vs the #1 D in yards, and 2 games vs dallas. tell me again what the skins record in those 5 games was?......... 4-1, with the only loss being avenged at tampas crib...in the playoffs, no less.

the skins also played 5 games vs the top 8 scoring D's, with the only loss (besides TB at TB) at denver- a game which was close.

the skins played 6 games vs D's ranked in the bottom half of the league in scoring D. you act like the whole schedule was a cake walk.

try again.




btw- have you checked the NFC division winners lately? they would be seattle, chicago, tampa and the giants........................

get my drift?

DallasFanatic wrote:This isn't the upset of the year gwego. The skins should win this one rather easily.

that would be nice. after looking at seattle schedule and record vs winning teams/good defensive teams, i am starting to agree.

G.O. wrote: c'mon man. seattle has the 32nd toughest shedule in the league! (thats last for the rest of you in philly) the skins are 4th or 5th depending on what site you look at. are you kidding me with this shite?

You mean taking known stats and making an argument- no I kid you not. I ask again- what games were played that made their schedule that much harder?

good gawd. that's 1 game vs the #1 scoring D (also #2 in yards), 2 games vs the #1 D in yards, and 2 games vs dallas. tell me again what the skins record in those 5 games was?......... 4-1, with the only loss being avenged at tampas crib...in the playoffs, no less.

the skins also played 5 games vs the top 8 scoring D's, with the only loss (besides TB at TB) at denver- a game which was close.

the skins played 6 games vs D's ranked in the bottom half of the league in scoring D. you act like the whole schedule was a cake walk.

try again.

BY my calculations- they had 8 games against teams ranked lower than 20, 9 if you count Seattle at 17. That's more than half their games against
shit defenses.

BBMarley wrote:

G.O. wrote: c'mon man. seattle has the 32nd toughest shedule in the league! (thats last for the rest of you in philly) the skins are 4th or 5th depending on what site you look at. are you kidding me with this shite?

You mean taking known stats and making an argument- no I kid you not. I ask again- what games were played that made their schedule that much harder?

look at the schedule and do the math. damn, dude. i gave you a link in the first post. heres another. http://www.nfl.com/standings/conference

why are you not getting this?

good gawd. that's 1 game vs the #1 scoring D (also #2 in yards), 2 games vs the #1 D in yards, and 2 games vs dallas. tell me again what the skins record in those 5 games was?......... 4-1, with the only loss being avenged at tampas crib...in the playoffs, no less.

the skins also played 5 games vs the top 8 scoring D's, with the only loss (besides TB at TB) at denver- a game which was close.

the skins played 6 games vs D's ranked in the bottom half of the league in scoring D. you act like the whole schedule was a cake walk.

try again.

BY my calculations- they had 8 games against teams ranked lower than 20, 9 if you count Seattle at 17. That's more than half their games against
shit defenses.

first, its not our fault your team had a shit defense.

second, it depends on if you use scoring or yardage stats. using your stats, the skins were 5-1 vs top 10 D's.

thank you.

and the skins have beaten all the NFC division winners, in case you missed it.

Skins 24 Hawks 17

First, I didn't realize that Seattle being in a crummy division had any bearing on how they're going to play Sunday. That's quite the leap in deduction.

Second, after the first 4 games of the season, essentially starting after the loss to Washington, the Hens were a completely different team. They were fortunate to get a couple of powder puffs in those first 4 weeks, since they looked terrible through those early games. Starting about week 5, they really got the ball rolling.

DON'T GET ME WRONG, I hate the chickens, dating back to my childhood, and few things would make me happier than to see them take a whooping in their own house (like they did at the hands of Arizona, in the first ever game played in their new house, which I attended and enjoyed piling-on the Seahawk faithful seated around me...sup, booze? I think it really pissed them off when I kept proclaiming that if "they get that scrub Alexander out of there, and put a good running back like Maurice Morris(Quack Quack), they might be able to score...then, they gave Alexander the series off, and Maurice marched them down the field almost singlehandedly, for theirt only TD of the game...good times)...but I don't see the Skins coming out of there with a win.

And one of the betting geeks probably has the numbers, which are probably different for the playoffs as opposed to the regular season, but usually home teams coming off a bye week are a safe bet to cover.

I just don't see Washington getting a whole lot done against Seattle's red-hot front 7. At this point in the week, I'd tend top want to say I'd give up 8.5, but 9.5 might be pushing it( fractional point spreads rule, whole numbers are gay, even though they're more commonly used).

eeeking by one playoff team at home (since sent home) doesnt help.

they put up big #'s against the worst teams in the league.

G.O. wrote: they put up big #'s against the worst teams in the league.

And so did the Patriots of past years, andf so did the Greatest Show On Turf, and so did the dynasty-era Cowboys, and so did the Greatest Teams in History, the 80's 49ers.

Still not sure what that has to do with how the Chickens will play on Sunday. They didn't make the schedule, last I checked.

Dinsdale wrote:

G.O. wrote: they put up big #'s against the worst teams in the league.

And so did the Patriots of past years, andf so did the Greatest Show On Turf, and so did the dynasty-era Cowboys, and so did the Greatest Teams in History, the 80's 49ers.

Still not sure what that has to do with how the Chickens will play on Sunday. They didn't make the schedule, last I checked.

those great teams werent so average against other teams in their class, otherwise they wouldnt be so great would they? if the hawks played the 'decent' teams on their schedule the same way they played the horrible ones, i wouldnt have brought it up.

fact is, they had the weakest schedule in the league and they are 2-3 vs winning teams outside of the indy game. i should have checked with you before bringing this up. sorry.

dont be so pissed cuz you made a dumb post earlier. nobody really cares.

G.O. wrote: alexander is a great RB, no doubt. but, a closer look at his season is telling- 18 of his TD's came against 4 of the worst teams in the league- Arizona (6), Houston (4), St. Louis (5), San Fran (3).

Gee, where have I read this before?

Seattle is a fraud, but hey, so is the rest of the NFC anyways, so they might get over. But I doubt it.

And before any of you NFC honks get your panties in a bunch, ask yourself why Vegas made the AFC a 10 point favorite in the SB before the playoffs even started.

War Wagon wrote:

G.O. wrote: alexander is a great RB, no doubt. but, a closer look at his season is telling- 18 of his TD's came against 4 of the worst teams in the league- Arizona (6), Houston (4), St. Louis (5), San Fran (3).

Gee, where have I read this before?

Seattle is a fraud, but hey, so is the rest of the NFC anyways, so they might get over. But I doubt it.

And before any of you NFC honks get your panties in a bunch, ask yourself why Vegas made the AFC a 10 point favorite in the SB before the playoffs even started.

this is what fans talk about when their team is out of it.

i spend half a day looking up stats and you come here with this? thanks for contributing nothing to the topic.

G.O. wrote: I spend half a day looking up stats...

Half a day? I knew you were slooooow, gwego, but that's ridiculous.

Save yourself some time in the future and don't bother breaking down in excruciatingly boring detail just exactly how weak the Hags schedule was. Anybody who's been paying attention already knew that along about Week 5.

Fwiw, and if it makes you feel any better, I agree with you that the skins will beat the hags. Not even that big of an upset in my book.

I picked 'em to beat the bucs, and this looks like an easier match-up.

War Wagon wrote:

G.O. wrote: I spend half a day looking up stats...

Half a day? I knew you were slooooow, gwego, but that's ridiculous.

yeah. i had to do some math.

i think i got a stat wrong, hard to believe as that is.

i said the hags were 2-3 vs winning teams outside of the indy game.

they are actually 2-2.

i'll factor that into my stats and start a new topic.






or not.

Yeah, you definitely shouldn't bother backing up your points with facts and statistics next time, GO.

While I disagree with what you claim the stats represent, I certainly appreciate you bringing them to the table, rather than the ever-popular "because I said so" rationale. You made your case based upon SOS and related factors, I broke it down to whether Seattle could keep the maniacal linebackers of the Skins on their toes enough to establish the running game. Most people back their thought with "you're stupid and gay." So, for your breakdown, I will give you mad props, although I disagree with your reasoning.

I agree with the upset pick. Before the playoffs even started, I had the Skins going into Seattle to put a hurtin' on the Hags. My reasoning is that Hasselbeck is a twat bubble. He's going to show us all why he was a backup QB in Green Bay once by shitting the bed in the playoffs again.

Dinsdale wrote:Yeah, you definitely shouldn't bother backing up your points with facts and statistics next time, GO.

While I disagree with what you claim the stats represent, I certainly appreciate you bringing them to the table, rather than the ever-popular "because I said so" rationale. You made your case based upon SOS and related factors, I broke it down to whether Seattle could keep the maniacal linebackers of the Skins on their toes enough to establish the running game. Most people back their thought with "you're stupid and gay." So, for your breakdown, I will give you mad props, although I disagree with your reasoning.

well, its nice to see someone besides fellow skinsfan appreciates my ability to do grade school math. calculus is where i draw the line.

i think cornelius griffin had been the key to the skins defensive success. being an interior lineman, just like an interior O lineman, he doesnt get much recognition til he's not in the game. he missed, i believe, the three games the skins lost in the middle of the season and as soon as he came back, they were back to their old form- better actually. he frees up other players by forcing a double team and stuffing the run.

a somewhat relevant piece of info from a recent post article....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 00989.html

In the NFL no team is supposed to get crushed by five touchdowns in one meeting, then win the rematch by two touchdowns. But these Redskins just did it. And, perhaps, it should have been anticipated -- at least a little bit. In his first tenure with the Redskins, Gibbs's teams had an amazing ability to gain revenge in rematches against a team that had beaten them earlier in the same season. From '81 through '92, Washington was 13-7 in such games. In all of Gibbs's seasons in Washington, his teams have improved their scoring differential by an average of 17 points in 24 rematch games against a team that beat them.

the skins didnt lose the first game, but they came close. this year, they are 4-0 in rematch games (2-2 in the first meeting vs the division and tampa) but they key stat is as follows.

skins/dallas I to II- +1 point to +28 points
skins/philly- +7 to +11
skins/giants- -36 to +15
skins/tampa- -1 to +7

a 22 point average improvement in rematch games. much like his first go-around.

I do think you would be hard pressed to find many teams this year having an absolutely brutal schedule and nobody had one that the rest of their division did not have.

I like your way of thinking though. Not too many people pick apart the stats and read between the lines.

However...your topic is "upset of the year - skins over seahawks"

G.O. wrote:take the skins and the points.

Why do we need the points? :D

true enough about the points. i am a little surprised that the spread is that big, given the skins D vs the run and alexander relative lack of success vs top D D's.

i'm sure the way brunell has been playing and with portis dinged up, the skins arent expected to score many points.

i dont even gamble, but if i did, i'd take the skins and the points, but i think they have a good shot to win outright.

You da man G.


I hear we are 9 point dogs in this one? EXCELLENT!

Each day that passes, my confidence gets better. :P


Skins by 4

When I saw the Hags giving 9, that only cemented my belief the Skins are going to the NFC Title Game. That's some serious disrespect.

I'd take the skins +9 without having to give it much thought.

I would have to give a LOT of thought to whether or not the skins are capable of scoring enough to actually WIN this game.

Right now I'd have to call it 20-16 for the Hawks.

Big Daddy wrote:You da man G.


I hear we are 9 point dogs in this one? EXCELLENT!

Each day that passes, my confidence gets better. :P


Skins by 4

C-DOGG!

what~up Brah'!

don't make me EDIT your POST pal!

remember your SUCCESS this Season!

FTFY's SUCK.

much love for your 'Skins...but, Man....don't screw with your Karma!

...jus'sayin'!

stand TALL BIG!

Q

that doesnt sound like a crazy score, pop.

i would hope the skins would get in the end zone more than once, though. alot of people are dissing the skins for a weak offensive showing vs tampa. remember, they averaged over 33 points a game over the final 3 games of the season- all against teams that were playing for something (yes, even philly), for what that's worth.

The skins were up and down offensively this year.

The Bucs have a real good defense, among the very best in the league, but DAMN, Washington looked like a bunch of feebs on offense.

They'll be able to accomplish more offensively v the Hawks than they did v Tampa, but Seattle's also gonna move the ball on you guys a lot more than the Yucs did.

If this was a Washington home game I'd like them to win.

On the road, I just have a tough time pulling the trigger and calling a skin win.

I wouldn't mind seeing it though.

poptart wrote:The skins were up and down offensively this year.

The Bucs have a real good defense, among the very best in the league, but DAMN, Washington looked like a bunch of feebs on offense.

They'll be able to accomplish more offensively v the Hawks than they did v Tampa, but Seattle's also gonna move the ball on you guys a lot more than the Yucs did.

If this was a Washington home game I'd like them to win.

On the road, I just have a tough time pulling the trigger and calling a skin win.

I wouldn't mind seeing it though.

Look at the Sqwacks record against team's with a winning record.. :wink:

Our 0 will show up

Skins win easy and less then 48 til the rainey city I be!

Qbert wrote:

Big Daddy wrote:You da man G.


I hear we are 9 point dogs in this one? EXCELLENT!

Each day that passes, my confidence gets better. :P


Skins by 4

C-DOGG!

what~up Brah'!

don't make me EDIT your POST pal!

remember your SUCCESS this Season!

FTFY's SUCK.

much love for your 'Skins...but, Man....don't screw with your Karma!

...jus'sayin'!

stand TALL BIG!

Q

My brotha from anotha-

Sorry i didn't get you anything for X- mas, better late than never.

Enjoy!

Rock and Roll