T1B

Draw is at 5pm est on ESPN.

Looks like BD and LR got fucked. The key to how this race devlopes is were Baffert puts his trio. here's the drawing order.
1. A.P. Warrior
2. Bob and John
3. Sharp Humor
4. Barbaro
5. Showing Up
6. Point Determined
7. Deputy Glitters
8. Private Vow
9. Bluegrass Cat
10. Steppenwolfer
11. Sinister Minister
12. Seaside Retreat
13. Sweetnorthernsaint
14. Cause to Believe
15. Lawyer Ron
16. Brother Derek
17. Storm Treasure
18. Flashy Bull
19. Keyed Entry
20. Jazil

I have a friend getting married on the east side at 5:30 central.

I'll have to wear my suit to Fairmount and be first in line to collect the winnings to make it to the wedding.

Bizzarofelice wrote:I have a friend getting married on the east side at 5:30 central.

I'll have to wear my suit to Fairmount and be first in line to collect the winnings to make it to the wedding.

You think Speed will hold? im betting it wont and gonna play a barbaro,apw,pd,swolffer and, SNSin a $100 box extacta for my longshot picks.

Im tossing BD if he beats me as the favorite then so be it! if speed holds SM will wire the field!

The Kentucky Derby. Likely the most difficult race to peg from a betting standpoint. You rarely (if ever) see so many horses in a field in any other race, including all the BC races. Said crowded field makes it virtually impossible to forecast how the race will shape up. With all them ponies bangin around on each other, form goes right out the window. When we get to the Preakness and the Belmont, then it's a little bit easier as the field thins out.

I'm still staying on Sinister Minister. He destroyed the Bluegrass field. I've seen a few of the other prep races, but this one stood out. If I am moved enough, I'll stop and pick up a RF and handicap some exotics, but my win money would/will (haven't decided if I'll bet the race) be on Sinister Minister.

Roofer wrote:The Kentucky Derby. Likely the most difficult race to peg from a betting standpoint. You rarely (if ever) see so many horses in a field in any other race, including all the BC races. Said crowded field makes it virtually impossible to forecast how the race will shape up. With all them ponies bangin around on each other, form goes right out the window. When we get to the Preakness and the Belmont, then it's a little bit easier as the field thins out.

I'm still staying on Sinister Minister. He destroyed the Bluegrass field. I've seen a few of the other prep races, but this one stood out. If I am moved enough, I'll stop and pick up a RF and handicap some exotics, but my win money would/will (haven't decided if I'll bet the race) be on Sinister Minister.

Roof, I like SM alot but so far this weak the track has been favoring Closers in a big way. I think he can wire the field and I will have $$ out on him but I have a gut feeling that the winner will come off the pace.

Zyclone wrote:

Roofer wrote:The Kentucky Derby. Likely the most difficult race to peg from a betting standpoint. You rarely (if ever) see so many horses in a field in any other race, including all the BC races. Said crowded field makes it virtually impossible to forecast how the race will shape up. With all them ponies bangin around on each other, form goes right out the window. When we get to the Preakness and the Belmont, then it's a little bit easier as the field thins out.

I'm still staying on Sinister Minister. He destroyed the Bluegrass field. I've seen a few of the other prep races, but this one stood out. If I am moved enough, I'll stop and pick up a RF and handicap some exotics, but my win money would/will (haven't decided if I'll bet the race) be on Sinister Minister.

Roof, I like SM alot but so far this weak the track has been favoring Closers in a big way. I think he can wire the field and I will have $$ out on him but I have a gut feeling that the winner will come off the pace.

That's some key info there, but to come from the back to win, that closer will have a TON of dirt and horses to overcome.

What's the weather forecast anyways?

Roofer wrote:

What's the weather forecast anyways?

Answering my own question, forecast says "few showers", which in Kentucky in May can be anything from a sprinkle to a torrential downpour.

Hmmmmm.....look at the mudders?

Sinister Minister’s mudder was Sweet Minister. His fodder was Old Trieste. Glad I could help.

Goober McTuber wrote:Sinister Minister’s mudder was Sweet Minister. His fodder was Old Trieste. Glad I could help.

Seriously chuckled at that one.

Goober McTuber wrote:Sinister Minister’s mudder was Sweet Minister. His fodder was Old Trieste. Glad I could help.

Old Trieste was gonna be a hell of a sire. Hope SM does his Ganddaddy(AP Indy) and Greatgrand daddy(seattle Slew) right.

Heres the post positions

1 Jazil no chance
2 Steppenwolfer will play him
3 Keyed Entry no chance
4 Sinister Minister can wire the field
5 Point Determined my dark horse
6 Showing Up will not show up
7 Bob and John will play in small exotics
8 Barbaro legit contender
9 Sharp Humor nothing funny here
10 A.P. Warrior my derby pick since his birth
11 Sweetnorthernsaint will play
12 Private Vow trash
13 Bluegrass Cat long shot to hit the board
14 Deputy Glitters trash
15 Seaside Retreat no chance
16 Cause to Believe no chance
17 Lawyer Ron I like but no willing to put money on his payout
18 Brother Derek favorite who i'll let beat me
19 Storm Treasure no chance
20 Flashy Bull no chance

Bizzarofelice wrote:I have a friend getting married on the east side at 5:30 central.

I'll have to wear my suit to Fairmount and be first in line to collect the winnings to make it to the wedding.

You're wearing a suit?

I'm betting AP Warrior



out

Deputy Glitters and Cause To Believe, those are my favs for THE Derby...

Tough post positions for BD and LR....

It's a wide open for Barboro to wear the roses, coming out of the #8 hole...

Isn't that special?

vvvvv

mods, isn't there a "sports nobody other than zy give's a fukk about 364 days a year" forum? please deposit this there or in trots, post haste.

best 1:49 of the year.

War Wagon wrote:Tough post positions for BD and LR....

It's a wide open for Barboro to wear the roses, coming out of the #8 hole...

Isn't that special?

vvvvv

^^^^^^^^^^^^ Will be very surprised to find out they are racing horses and not Hysters.

I always figured that if the day comes when I have the desire to gamble any amount of money on midgets who ride animals as fast as they can, that's when I'm going to take a step back and wonder if I have a problem. What a peculiar concept.

I could lay a million bucks on a horse and I'd still rather listen to a Toledo Mudhen exhibition game on a defective ham radio with nothing wagered.

Zyclone wrote: Looks like BD and LR got fucked.

Say what? Closing Argument ran second last year from the 19 spot. Smarty Jones won from the auxiliary gate, IIRC, as a 14-15 and he had no problems getting to a stalking position on the backstretch. The ones who got fucked are sitting by the rail.

Good luck playing a horse that is 0-3 lifetime against Brother Derek.

Degenerate wrote:Good luck playing a horse that is 0-3 lifetime against Brother Derek.

Were all those races a 20 horse field with BD coming in from far outside?

Bizzarofelice wrote:

Degenerate wrote:Good luck playing a horse that is 0-3 lifetime against Brother Derek.

Were all those races a 20 horse field with BD coming in from far outside?

RACK!

Bizzarofelice wrote:

Degenerate wrote:Good luck playing a horse that is 0-3 lifetime against Brother Derek.

Were all those races a 20 horse field with BD coming in from far outside?

Yes, the circumstances of the Derby can occasionally make up for one horse being inferior to another. I'll give you the large field, since BD has faced inordinatly small ones in Cali, but being on the far outside is a huge plus for him, not a minus.

btw, i won't have either of those horses on top. I was tempted to hit Point Determined but every DRF tout loves him and those horses never win the Derby.

Zy,

You have me talked into your AP Warr. pick but what are you seeing in this horse that you like so much?

Also, who are the closers you'd think about playing?

Right now, I'm looking at AP Warr, Barb, & PT Dtr... Decent?

Sweetnorthernsaint ran a textbook close in the Illinois Derby; four straight Beyers in the 100s.

DMike316 wrote:Zy,

You have me talked into your AP Warr. pick but what are you seeing in this horse that you like so much?

Also, who are the closers you'd think about playing?

Right now, I'm looking at AP Warr, Barb, & PT Dtr... Decent?

Your picks look good to me. There is so much Speed in the race I dont see it holding up. APW is either gonna run the race of his life or not be a factor. If you look at his PP he sets up along with PD in the race to be flying at the end. His Daddy was the morning line favorite in 92 but scratched the nite before the derby with a bruised foot only to come back and run the second fasest belmont in history.

heres an email I sent out monday, funny how the crackmore sun agrees with me.

These 3 along with Sinister Minister have been my horses for the derby 5 weeks ago.

The article is pretty decent but it has one error. AP Indy didn't win the derby he scratced as the morning line favorite the night before the derby and came back to run the sencond fastest belmont in history to his Broodmare sire Secretariat.
Barbaro, A.P. Warrior stand out
Originally published May 1, 2006
The beauty of sports in general, and horse racing in particular, is that the best team, best athlete or best horse doesn't always win. So, it shouldn't come as a surprise that no one on the Tribune Triple Crown panel picked either of the top two horses in the weekly poll to win Saturday's Kentucky Derby.

Horse racing is about strategy, pace and peaking on the right day. Our panelists, though, have narrowed it down to two horses - Barbaro, who three picked to win and A.P. Warrior, who was picked by the remaining two. Here's a sample of what our experts are thinking:





It's hard to believe there won't be a hot pace in this year's Derby with the likes of Keyed Entry, Sharp Humor and Sinister Minister. And favored Brother Derek is likely going to be close to that pace. A.P. Warrior, a son of Derby winner A.P. Indy trained by John Shirreffs, and Point Determined, a son of Preakness and Belmont winner Point Given trained by Bob Baffert, are two colts bred to go long and benefit from a quick pace. Hard to fault Barbaro, the undefeated winner of the Florida Derby. But he's another who likes to lay close to the pace and he'll be trying to become the first colt in 50 years to win the Derby off a layoff of five weeks or longer. So, that's the way it should finish with A.P. Warrior winning followed by Point Determined.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Triple Crown rankings

Horse, Trainer, Jockey, St W P S, Last race, Next race

1. Lawyer Ron, Bob Holthus, John McKee, 14 7 1 3, Arkansas Derby (4/15), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

2. Brother Derek, Dan Hendricks, Alex Solis, 8 6 0 1, Santa Anita Derby (1st), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

3. Barbaro, Michael Matz, Edgar Prado, 5 5 0 0, Florida Derby (1st), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

4. Bob and John, Bob Baffert, Garrett Gomez, 9 4 1 3, Wood Memorial (1st), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

5. A.P. Warrior, John Shirreffs, Corey Nakatani, 8 3 1 1, Santa Anita Derby (3rd), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

6. Point Determined, Bob Baffert, Rafael Bejarano, 6 2 3 1, Santa Anita Derby (2nd), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

7. Sweetnorthernsaint, Michael Trombetta, Kent Desormeaux, 6 3 0 1, Illinois Derby (1st), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

8. Steppenwolfer, Dabiel PIetz, Robbie Albarado, 8 3 2 2, Arkansas Derby (2nd), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

9. Showing Up, Barclay Tagg, Cornelio Velasquez, 3 3 0 0, Lexington (1st), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

10. Sinister Minister, Bob Baffert, Victor Espinoza, 5 2 1 0, Blue Grass Stakes (1st), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

Triple Crown panel: John Cherwa, Orlando Sentinel; Dave Joseph, South Florida Sun-Sentinel; Bob Mieszerski, Los Angeles Times; Neil Milbert, Chicago Tribune; Paul Moran, Newsday.


[ Dave Joseph, South Florida Sun-Sentinel]
[ Bob Mieszerski, Los Angeles Times]
[ Neil Milbert, Chicago Tribune]
[ Paul Moran, Newsday]

Degenerate wrote:Sweetnorthernsaint ran a textbook close in the Illinois Derby; four straight Beyers in the 100s.

I like sns also Hell he's a hometown horse lets see how the favorites will react to the pace and the dirt getting kicked up in there face going into the first turn.

Zyclone wrote:

Degenerate wrote:Sweetnorthernsaint ran a textbook close in the Illinois Derby; four straight Beyers in the 100s.

I like sns also Hell he's a hometown horse.

Yeah I saw him clean up at Laurel earlier this year and he will be in a few of my tickets for sentimental reasons. It would be great to see a guy like Trombetta in the winner's circle.

Degenerate wrote:

Zyclone wrote:

Degenerate wrote:Sweetnorthernsaint ran a textbook close in the Illinois Derby; four straight Beyers in the 100s.

I like sns also Hell he's a hometown horse.

Yeah I saw him clean up at Laurel earlier this year and he will be in a few of my tickets for sentimental reasons. It would be great to see a guy like Trombetta in the winner's circle.

You going out to Laurel on sat?

I'll be there to place my bets in the early afternoon but i can't stay for the Derby. pm me if you're around.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial wrote:I always figured that if the day comes when I have the desire to gamble any amount of money on midgets who ride animals as fast as they can, that's when I'm going to take a step back and wonder if I have a problem. What a peculiar concept.

I could lay a million bucks on a horse and I'd still rather listen to a Toledo Mudhen exhibition game on a defective ham radio with nothing wagered.

Get on with your bad self then, and let those who enjoy discussing the bloodlines of royalty have at it.

Enjoy the Mudhens game.

As for me, I'll be watching, and wagering, on the 132nd Freaking Derby.

Got's a problemo with that?

That would be the point where I tell you to go fuck yourself.

Putz.

smackaholic wrote:mods, isn't there a "sports nobody other than zy give's a fukk about 364 days a year" forum? please deposit this there or in trots, post haste.

Obviously, more folks than Zyclone appreciate the Derby, and the Triple Crown.

Sorry that you've been so offended by this thread that you think it deserves to be shit-canned. What with all of the other brilliant topics being discussed, I guess I can see how you feel. Or not.

Here's an idear...

Not down with horse racing?

Don't click on the thread, or better yet, don't bother posting in it.

I doubt that you'll ever see me in an Ultimate fighting thread.

BSmack wrote: ^^^^^^^^^^^^ Will be very surprised to find out they are racing horses and not Hysters.

So Bri, which horse do YOU have in this race?

Over time, it's becoming more and more apparent that you're every bit the tool Ucant has portrayed you as.

You go, boy.

i ended up betting AP Warrior

put the 1,2,4,5,7,8,11,13,16 2nd in exactas!






I flopped from Ap to Point determined, back to AP Warrior!

The more I look at the form, the more I agree with AP Warrior pick. As you all have said, so much speed in the race, it just can't stay at an honest pace I don't think.

Tell you the horse that is a HUGE question mark for me is Showing Up. Hasn't lost in 3 races, and he's moved up in class every time. We can't really tell his ceiling, and since he's probably getting no action, he's gonna go off at huge numbers. I'd hate to not have at least a little on his nose and watch him steal the race.

Also, Jazil looks sneaky there on the rail.

I'll ex-box these:

Jazil to SM to Showing Up to AP Warrior

I'll put 5 across the board on Showing Up.

20 and 20 on AP Warrior

Positions?

1. Roofer: inside...rolling fattys for tonight's Laker game.

2. Burntfelice: outside...in direct sunlight.

3. Zyklon B: inside...the paddock begging his boy Baffert for an autograph.