T1B

The federal Tory government plans to bring in a bill to implement the Canada-U.S. softwood lumber deal and warned Tuesday that a parliamentary defeat of the measure would force an election.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper said the government decided to go ahead with the agreement after getting a "clear majority" of support from all parts of the country.

Harper said the government will go ahead with legislation this fall but he didn't specify what percentage of lumber companies backed the agreement, which would put to rest a four-year trade dispute that has devastated Canada's lumber industry.

However, he threatened to call an election if Parliament fails to adopt the bill to be tabled once the House of Commons resumes sitting next month.

"This agreement will end years of costly legal wrangling, and allow us to move on to build a stronger, more prosperous Canada," Harper said in a brief appearance in the foyer of the House of Commons.

"As such, and because of its fiscal measures, the vote on this will be a confidence measure."

The government had served notice earlier this summer that it would consider the lumber deal a confidence matter, which could mean an election as early as September, just eight months after the last one.

That scenario would be averted, however, if just one opposition party - including the leaderless Liberals - supports the deal.

However, all opposition parties have taken turns criticizing the agreement as a sellout to U.S. interests and a capitulation to President George W. Bush.

The deal repays to Canadian producers about 80 per cent of the more than $5 billion (U.S.) in punitive duties collected by the United States on lumber shipments from Canada in the last three years. It also sets up a system of sliding duties and managed market access for Canadian companies, who now account for about a third of the U.S. market.

However, the agreement could impose significant hurdles for Canadian producers shipping wood into the U.S. if lumber prices fall, as they are now starting to do because of a weakening U.S. housing market.

Tuesday's announcement by Harper follows weeks of hard lobbying by Trade Minister David Emerson and others to get the major players in the softwood industry to back the deal. But now that the forest companies have accepted the agreement with some reservations, the ball is now in the politicians' court.

The NDP declared within minutes of Harper's announcement that it would vote against the deal, which leaves its destiny in the other parties' hands.

"Any enlightened parliamentarian will be voting against this deal," said NDP industry critic Peter Julian.

"As enlightened politicians, we're going to vote against it. We've read the agreement, we've seen the capitulations, we know it's not in Canadians' interests. . .

"This sellout is Stephen Harper trying to cozy up to George Bush. It is not about standing up for Canadians."
Julian said lumber officials have warned that the deal will mean severe job losses in certain sectors of their industry.

The Bloc Quebecois would not show its hand Tuesday but said it would continue to push for improvements to the deal.

Bloc critic Pierre Paquette said his party wants to see several changes, including an improved quota system and a clearer definition of the provincial role in forestry policy.

The Liberals are set to vote against the softwood lumber deal, and join the NDP in declaring non-confidence in the Conservative minority government when Parliament resumes.

"Nothing has been put on the table that would convince us to support this deal," Liberal House leader Ralph Goodale said in a telephone interview from Regina.

It's the toughest line the party has taken on the softwood agreement that Prime Minister Stephen Harper said would be put to a confidence vote after the Commons returns from its summer break on Sept. 18.

After Harper announced last week he had a "clear majority" of support from the big lumber producing provinces and industry players, interim Liberal leader Bill Graham said the party wanted to consult the forestry industry and study the deal before stating its position.

Yesterday, Goodale signalled the party is prepared to risk triggering an election if the Bloc Québécois also votes against the deal. "If that's what eventually happens because of this, then I think the party's prepared to grapple with that consequence."

The Conservatives hold 125 of the 308 Commons seats. The Liberals hold 102, the Bloc 50, and the NDP 29. There is one independent MP and one vacancy.

So does this mean the Tories face defeat over the vote Harper promised this fall? Not likely.

Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe said this week in Quebec City the "honeymoon is over" for Harper's minority government, and he promised a "tough fight" on many fronts. Still, Duceppe has left himself an out on the softwood lumber dispute, saying he is still consulting industrial producers in Quebec.