T1B

New BCS Poll

Just out and presented on ESPNews. Not much of a surprise.


[web]http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/BCSStandings[/web]

The question was brought up during The OT...could Florida pass Michigan for #2 if they beat Arkansas and UCLA beats USC? Without dissecting the entire formula, I think it's possible it could happen. Michigan does have a bigger lead on Florida than USC has on Michigan.

What I want to know is where OU would be if the Oregon win hadn't gotten counted as a loss.

the_ouskull

the_ouskull wrote:What I want to know is where OU would be if the Oregon win hadn't gotten counted as a loss.

the_ouskull

Either 4th or 5th, fighting it out with Florida right behind Michigan and right in front of LSU.

i think with the big 12 north being a joke, and tejas struggling, they would be in 4th-6th spot in bcs.

ND's still in good shape for an at-large bid:

1. Ohio St. (12-0) 1 2850 1.000 1 1575 1.000 1 1.000 1.0000 1
2. USC (10-1) 2 2711 .951 2 1491 .947 2 .940 .9460 3
3. Michigan (11-1) 3 2614 .917 3 1445 .917 3 .930 .9216 2
4. Florida (11-1) 4 2528 .887 4 1405 .892 4 .890 .8900 4
5. LSU (10-2) 5 2294 .805 5 1255 .797 5 .830 .8106 10
6. Louisville (10-1) 7 2175 .763 7 1169 .742 6 .780 .7618 9
7. Wisconsin (11-1) 6 2176 .764 6 1221 .775 12 .590 .7096 8
8. Boise St. (12-0) 9 1872 .657 9 1018 .646 7 .720 .6744 11
9. Arkansas (10-2) 8 1890 .663 8 1042 .662 9 .660 .6616 6
10. Notre Dame (10-2) 10 1765 .619 12 928 .589 8 .670 .6262 5
11. Auburn (10-2) 12 1680 .589 11 985 .625 10 .640 .6183 12
12. Oklahoma (10-2) 11 1743 .612 10 994 .631 15 .410 .5509 15
13. Rutgers (10-1) 13 1558 .547 13 777 .493 11 .610 .5500 14
14. Virginia Tech (10-2) 14 1298 .455 14 744 .472 16 .400 .4426 17
15. West Virginia (9-2) 15 1226 .430 15 668 .424 17 .350 .4014 7
16. Tennessee (9-3) 18 872 .306 19 434 .276 13T .530 .3705 20
17. Wake Forest 10-2) 16 1071 .376 16 607 .385 18 .280 .3471 21

Top 14 are eligible for at-large bids if not otherwise eligible for an automatic bid. As things stand right now, there will be two automatic qualifiers for at-large bids: Michigan and Boise State. LSU is also in contention to be an automatic qualifier, but needs a USC loss and for Florida not to leapfrog Michigan (they need Michigan at #2 to be an automatic qualifier). Ohio State and USC have automatic bids, Florida-Arkansas winner will have an automatic bid. Of the remaining teams ahead of ND, or with possibility to move ahead of ND, Wisconsin, Auburn and Florida-Arkansas loser are all effectively eliminated from contention for the BCS, and Oklahoma and Rutgers can move ahead of ND only with wins, which in both cases will get those teams an automatic bid.

The only realistic argument for keeping ND out of the BCS is the bane of most of this board: the Big East. If Rutgers and Louisville both win, the Big East could make a case that they deserve the last at-large bid (provided, of course, that ND doesn't finish in the Top 8) with Rutgers getting the automatic bid and Louisville finishing ahead of Notre Dame. It probably won't happen for the Big East, but they could make the argument from a meritocratic standpoint. Still, it's never over till it's over . . .

ND's rooting interests for next week:

• Florida over Arkansas in SEC championship game (an Arkansas loss will improve ND's standing in BCS rankings. Ordinarily, I'm not given to rooting for Urban Meyer, but if it'll help ND . . .)
• UConn over Louisville (a Louisville loss will improve ND's standing in BCS rankings.)
• West Virginia over Rutgers (if Louisville wins, a Rutgers loss will eliminate any possibility of the Big East getting an at-large bid. Also, a Rutgers loss takes away any possibility of ND being leapfrogged by Rutgers next week.)
• Georgia Tech over Wake Forest in ACC championship game (will improve SOS for ND.)
• Stanford over Kal (will improve SOS for ND.)
• Air Force over TCU (will improve SOS for ND.)
• Nebraska over Oklahoma in Big 12 championship game (only to prevent the possibility of ND being leapfrogged in the BCS standings by Oklahoma. If the necessary teams ahead of ND don't lose, this game doesn't matter.)

So, let me understand this rationale. ND gets blown out in its 2 meaningful games and still deserves a BCS bid?

stuckinia wrote:So, let me understand this rationale. ND gets blown out in its 2 meaningful games and still deserves a BCS bid?

ND could lose 3 games and still get a BCS bid. where have you been? there are rules written in bcs just for ND, to ensure they will get an at large bid, and fuck over more deserving squads.

I don't see Stanford in there anywhere.

They must be like #26 or something.

Adelpiero wrote:

stuckinia wrote:So, let me understand this rationale. ND gets blown out in its 2 meaningful games and still deserves a BCS bid?

ND could lose 3 games and still get a BCS bid. where have you been?

So can any other team in 1-A, as long as they finish in the Top 14. Realistically, the only teams that have a shot at finishing in the Top 14 with three losses this season are Arkansas (only if they suffer a narrow loss to Florida) and Tennessee (will need a lot of help to crack the Top 14 in the final poll).

there are rules written in bcs just for ND, to ensure they will get an at large bid, and fuck over more deserving squads.

Coupla points on this:

1. Every conference in the BCS signed off on the rules beforehand. It's not like Notre Dame did anything in secret to fuck anybody over.
2. There are only two advantages that ND has: The Top 8 rule (realistically, a team in the Top 8 should get into the BCS regardless, although in fairness, Wisconsin will, and Louisville coud, miss the BCS under these circumstances this season), and the rule prohibiting any conference from obtaining more than one at-large bid (this is the rule that really fucks over Wisconsin this year, but it helps other conferences, not just ND necessarily).

This one's for Mace...

For the record, according to this latest BCS poll, Michigan has precisely TWO wins over Top 25 competition (same as Florida, actually) while USC has FIVE, including wins over two potential BCS conference champions.

Regarding each team's S.O.S. and their number of Quality Wins, you were saying?

Van wrote:This one's for Mace...

For the record, according to this latest BCS poll, Michigan has precisely TWO wins over Top 25 competition (same as Florida, actually) while USC has FIVE, including wins over two potential BCS conference champions.

Regarding each team's S.O.S. and their number of Quality Wins, you were saying?

Fwiw, 'SC has at least the potential for three wins over BCS-bound teams (although the number could also be, but is unlikely to be, zero). Michigan has (at most) only one such win.

Terry, yeah, I suppose one could argue that Wisconsin is getting "fucked over" by the BCS here but then again...

at Bowling Green
Western Illinois
San Diego State
at No. 6 Michigan
at Indiana
Northwestern
Minnesota
at Purdue
Illinois
Penn State
at Iowa
Buffalo

...no they're not. There was really only one game on that schedule they could lose, and they lost it. Including their OOC schedule and taking into account how bad the Big 10 was this year after Ohio St and Michigan that right there has got to be the softest schedule ever played by any Big 10 team.

That's just an incredibly soft schedule. Take away the Michigan game and that's Boise St soft.

Come the fuck on...

Wisconsin?

They should rename that conference the Big Two. There were 2 excellent teams, and 9 complete hunks of shit, one of which compiled a good record by being the best of the hunks of shit.

Dinsdale wrote:Come the fuck on...

Wisconsin?

They should rename that conference the Big Two. There were 2 excellent teams, and 9 complete hunks of shit, one of which compiled a good record by being the best of the hunks of shit.

Rack Dins. But watch out for Minn, IA, and Purdouche in their bowl games. They may lose by only 15 points each.

You wanna know a good way to remove any and all credibility you may have from a CFB discussion?


Be a PAC10 Hater, that's how.

There isn't really a good way to compare conferences, but their performances against other conferences both head-to-head and through common opponent stuff and whatnot is about as good an indicator as anything.

Man, if only someone were to keep a database of such things, that would be cool.


Oh, wait...Mr Sagarin does.

And Jeff Sagarin and his Merry Band of Microchips see it this way:

1 PAC-10 (A) = 81.50 81.44 ( 1) 10
2 SOUTHEASTERN (A) = 80.44 80.08 ( 2) 12
3 BIG EAST (A) = 78.06 78.44 ( 3) 8
4 BIG TEN (A) = 76.37 77.40 ( 4) 11
5 BIG 12 (A) = 74.34 74.18 ( 5) 12
6 ATLANTIC COAST (A) = 73.63 72.54 ( 6) 12
7 MOUNTAIN WEST (A) = 67.09 67.59 ( 7) 9
8 I-A INDEPENDENTS (A) = 66.61 66.66 ( 8) 4
9 CONFERENCE USA (A) = 65.04 65.21 ( 9) 12
10 WESTERN ATHLETIC



Gee willikers, how 'bout that.


But hey, don't let FACTS get in your way or anything.

If you're east of the Rockies, the Conference of Champions is that bunch of teams that is to be hated, have the polls rigged against, and made fun of.

Remember that.


Wisconsin might not break the top 5 in the PAC...get real.

PAC 10 is a pussy conference.

sin
Every ignorant fuck east of Henderson, NV.

Really? Is that what I'm doing, Mace?

Maybe right after I get done repeating "There isn't really a good way to compare," I'll get right on that.


Have you ever posted anything that wasn't fucking idiotic?


Fuck, I always often go against the grain, contrary to popular opinion here, A)just to stir the pot a bit, and B) because I'm good at it.


You do it because you're a fucking idiot.

stuckinia wrote:Purdouche

Bwaaa!!

Oh, and by the way, idiot -- Sagarin's ratings are part of the BCS formula.


And they say you're an idiot, too.


Could you do me a favor, and maybe the next time you're actually right, or even well-informed about something, could you possibly post it in red, to set it apart from your usual inaccurate idiocy?

TIA

I think Florida, should they beat Ark, has a very good claim. They will have beaten LSU, who is better than anyone USC has beaten. They would also have wins over one of USC's other big wins-Ark, and have beaten Tenn who beat Cal. Plus their sole loss was to a team that is better than Oregon State.

Don't get me wrong, USC is playing damn good football right now. But the right to play for it all(til we ever get a play-off) is earned over the season. I wouldn't say USC has earned it more than Mich or Florida.

Danimal wrote:I think Florida, should they beat Ark, has a very good claim.

I would agree with you wholeheartedly...

Except Florida did a 1AA.

So sorry, no championship game for you. Maybe Florida and Boise State can get together for a little "we beat up the midgets" hootananny bowl game.


If you schedule a 1AA AND lose a game, you're done. Buh-bye. Don't wanna hear it.

I might overlook the 1AA game, but couple that with one loss, and you're the other one-loss major teams' bitch.

Besides that whole 1-AA deal Florida only has two wins over Top 25 teams. Arkansas would make three.

USC has five wins over Top 25 teams. Also, don't think people won't be comparing the USC destruction of Arkansas on their home field vs Florida's neutral field game with Arkansas. Rightly or wrongly and to whatever degree, you know they will. It was all the rage with Michigan/ND/USC.

I kinda hope Florida wins out, and finishes about 0.001 BCS points behind USC.

The bitching from Redneckland would be quite amusing.


B-b-b-b-b-b-but...we're the SEC!!!!!

Would you even be the least bit surprised to see Arkansas roll right through Florida?

I wouldn't. I would be surprised to see Florida roll Arkansas.

I dunno -- that Leak fellow isn't a bad big-game player over the years(what, is that guy about 34 now, in his 11th year of eligibility?).


But ARK rolling Florida would be funny...no "titan" from the SEC. Whining cousinfukers everywhere.



But regardless who wins that one, it's going to end badly for the barefoot skanks in one state or the other. Fanny Lou would be in for quite the beatin' that night. A trailer-rockin' learnin' would be put upside her dome, Cletus-style.


Resulting in much amusement over here.

Dins, I still never got your "wiseguy" point spread/betting take on USC-OSU...

Van wrote:Terry, yeah, I suppose one could argue that Wisconsin is getting "fucked over" by the BCS here but then again...

at Bowling Green
Western Illinois
San Diego State
at No. 6 Michigan
at Indiana
Northwestern
Minnesota
at Purdue
Illinois
Penn State
at Iowa
Buffalo

...no they're not. There was really only one game on that schedule they could lose, and they lost it. Including their OOC schedule and taking into account how bad the Big 10 was this year after Ohio St and Michigan that right there has got to be the softest schedule ever played by any Big 10 team.

That's just an incredibly soft schedule. Take away the Michigan game and that's Boise St soft.

Actually, I never argued that Wisconsin was getting "fucked over" by the BCS. Under the rules that everyone agreed to, they can't get in this year. Period, end of debate.

My point was that, in the absence of the one rule, Wisconsin could, based on their ranking, make a claim for a BCS at-large bid. Then again, you're right about the soft schedule. Had they beaten Michigan, they'd be in, and we wouldn't be having this discussion.

Wisconsin is an interesting situation...just imagine had they won that game at Michigan and finished 12-0 and never had to play the Buckeyes. I think an all-Big Ten national title shamorama game would've been unavoidable. The Big Ten needs to go to at least a 9 game conference schedule...it makes no sense that they don't play 3 teams each year and they play 4 out of conference games. That's why we saw games like Michigan-Ball State and Wisconsin-Buffalo at the end of this season. The fact Wisconsin's schedule is so soft and had they finished 12-0, I'm sure many would've been calling for one of the one-loss teams who had a tougher schedule to get the bid against Ohio State and not the Badgers.

Shoalzie wrote:Wisconsin is an interesting situation...just imagine had they won that game at Michigan and finished 12-0 and never had to play the Buckeyes. I think an all-Big Ten national title shamorama game would've been unavoidable. The Big Ten needs to go to at least a 9 game conference schedule...it makes no sense that they don't play 3 teams each year and they play 4 out of conference games.

Point of clarification: they each skip two conference opponents each year. There are 11 teams in the Big 10 (ten plus your school), and each team plays eight conference games.

That's why we saw games like Michigan-Ball State and Wisconsin-Buffalo at the end of this season. The fact Wisconsin's schedule is so soft and had they finished 12-0, I'm sure many would've been calling for one of the one-loss teams who had a tougher schedule to get the bid against Ohio State and not the Badgers.

From the standpoint of ND fan, we've always chafed at the fact that we have to play our Big Ten games in the month of September. That hurts our scheduling flexibility, and usually means that we get one of our toughest games of the season (Michigan) almost right out of the chute.

It was tolerable when the Big Ten played all of its OOC games in September. This year, when most of the Big Ten teams had an OOC game later on, it was a sore point for ND fan.

the_ouskull wrote:What I want to know is where OU would be if the Oregon win hadn't gotten counted as a loss.

the_ouskull

Brad Edwards the ESPN guru on the BCS, said this weekend (heard it on Sirius Radio), that Oklahoma would probably be third in the BCS if not for the loss in Eugene. That is just what the guru said though and it is all speculation.

But then again we must all yeild to the football genius, Van.

Huh??

I said they'd be 4th or 5th.

Would a one loss OU team be ahead of Michigan right now? Maybe, maybe not.

Maybe though we should defer to you, Sun Coast Super Genius? You know, since in your infinite wisdom you've got a two loss LSU and a two loss (spare me) OU ahead of one loss USC in your rankings...

Van wrote:Huh??

I said they'd be 4th or 5th.

Would a one loss OU team be ahead of Michigan right now? Maybe, maybe not.

Maybe though we should defer to you, Sun Coast Super Genius? You know, since in your infinite wisdom you've got a two loss LSU and a two loss (spare me) OU ahead of one loss USC in your rankings...

Oklahoma is a one loss team and everyone who has watched college football even a miniscule amount this season is aware of this. LSU didn't lose to an unranked joke at home either. But hey I'm sure your going to tell us next how much tougher it is to go through the Pac 10 than the SEC?

^^^^^^^^^

Could not look any dumber if he tried.

Hey I am an UW alum (class of '89) Iand I am pissed off. No not, that we aren't in a BCS bowl, but that we scheduled so soft OOC and we seem to do it more years than not. I do think Wisconsin is an excellent team and can play with almost anybody in the country (they were tied with UM at half), but they have not the schedule, they lack quality wins, to have earned anyting other than what they are getting. Having said that I know whichever SEC opponent (Arkansas, Florida, LSU) they get in the Capital One Bowl they will be the underdog, just like last year against Auburn. And on this board eveyoine will be saying how they will get rolled. My advice: Don'tunderestimate the Badgers, even though they have played a weak schedule they are a very good team.

SunCoastSooner wrote:

Van wrote:Huh??

I said they'd be 4th or 5th.

Would a one loss OU team be ahead of Michigan right now? Maybe, maybe not.

Maybe though we should defer to you, Sun Coast Super Genius? You know, since in your infinite wisdom you've got a two loss LSU and a two loss (spare me) OU ahead of one loss USC in your rankings...

Oklahoma is a one loss team and everyone who has watched college football even a miniscule amount this season is aware of this. LSU didn't lose to an unranked joke at home either. But hey I'm sure your going to tell us next how much tougher it is to go through the Pac 10 than the SEC?

Unbelievable...

LSU has TWO wins over Top 25 teams, to go with their two losses, including losses in both their rivalry games.

OU only has ONE win over a Top 25 team (even if we give you the Oregon win, which we can't, won't and shouldn't) and they have two losses, including a loss in the one rivalry game they played.

USC has FIVE wins over Top 25 teams (the most in the country), including wins over the potential conference champs of BOTH your favorite conferences (SEC and Big XII), three potential BCS bowl teams, a win in their rivalry game and USC only has one loss, which came on the road to a Top 25 team.

Yeah, LSU and OU deserve a higher ranking than USC.



Man, what an obtuse take. Dude, when you're reduced to spouting incoherent takes like that you ought to realize it's well and truly time for you to disable the "stupid bitter homer" function on your 'puter.

Terry in Crapchester wrote:The only realistic argument for keeping ND out of the BCS is the bane of most of this board: the Big East. If Rutgers and Louisville both win, the Big East could make a case that they deserve the last at-large bid (provided, of course, that ND doesn't finish in the Top with Rutgers getting the automatic bid and Louisville finishing ahead of Notre Dame. It probably won't happen for the Big East, but they could make the argument from a meritocratic standpoint. Still, it's never over till it's over . . .

I don't know why you're concerned because ND will get an at large bid.

The only hope for 2 Big East teams in the BCS is this:

Louisville wins
Rutgers wins
Florida wins

The last at large bid (presuming Michigan, ND and Boise have the other 3) would potentially come down to Louisville and LSU. LSU would get it in my mind.

MuchoBulls wrote:

Terry in Crapchester wrote:The only realistic argument for keeping ND out of the BCS is the bane of most of this board: the Big East. If Rutgers and Louisville both win, the Big East could make a case that they deserve the last at-large bid (provided, of course, that ND doesn't finish in the Top with Rutgers getting the automatic bid and Louisville finishing ahead of Notre Dame. It probably won't happen for the Big East, but they could make the argument from a meritocratic standpoint. Still, it's never over till it's over . . .

I don't know why you're concerned because ND will get an at large bid.

I tend to think so, but I suppose stranger things than that have happened.

The only hope for 2 Big East teams in the BCS is this:

Louisville wins
Rutgers wins
Florida wins

The last at large bid (presuming Michigan, ND and Boise have the other 3) would potentially come down to Louisville and LSU. LSU would get it in my mind.

I tend to agree with you that LSU gets a BCS bid over Louisville. Of course, though, for there to be a possibility of keeping LSU out, you also need USC to win.

If USC loses, Michigan jumps to #2 and LSU jumps to #4. That combination of events makes LSU an automatic qualifier.

Van wrote:

SunCoastSooner wrote:

Van wrote:Huh??

I said they'd be 4th or 5th.

Would a one loss OU team be ahead of Michigan right now? Maybe, maybe not.

Maybe though we should defer to you, Sun Coast Super Genius? You know, since in your infinite wisdom you've got a two loss LSU and a two loss (spare me) OU ahead of one loss USC in your rankings...

Oklahoma is a one loss team and everyone who has watched college football even a miniscule amount this season is aware of this. LSU didn't lose to an unranked joke at home either. But hey I'm sure your going to tell us next how much tougher it is to go through the Pac 10 than the SEC?

Unbelievable...

LSU has TWO wins over Top 25 teams, to go with their two losses, including losses in both their rivalry games.

OU only has ONE win over a Top 25 team (even if we give you the Oregon win, which we can't, won't and shouldn't) and they have two losses, including a loss in the one rivalry game they played.

USC has FIVE wins over Top 25 teams (the most in the country), including wins over the potential conference champs of BOTH your favorite conferences (SEC and Big XII), three potential BCS bowl teams, a win in their rivalry game and USC only has one loss, which came on the road to a Top 25 team.

Yeah, LSU and OU deserve a higher ranking than USC.



Man, what an obtuse take. Dude, when you're reduced to spouting incoherent takes like that you ought to realize it's well and truly time for you to disable the "stupid bitter homer" function on your 'puter.

Arkansas has 12 different starters now on their team as compared to the opening weekend of the season... including QB and 4/5 of their Oline. EVERY single one of the teams you just mentioned losses were on the road to highly ranked teams not5 teams that are barely bowl elgible. As I said I am basing it on what I saw3 of the teams during the season on the field not on simply wins and losses. I believe that both LSU and Oklahoma are better teams this year than USC.

SunCoastSooner wrote:I believe that both LSU and Oklahoma are better teams this year than USC.

Huh?

Bad calls or not(let it go, Soonerdork), Oregon hung 500 freaking yards on OU. 500. Many of which were when the game was on the line, and OU's defense had their nuts shrivel up into their torsos. This is fact.

And USC absolutely DEMOLISHED Oregon. Sure, the whole common-opponent thing isn't the end-all, be-all, but still...


And lost in this discussion(until Van brough it up), USC's loss came on the road at the hands of the #24 team in the BCS, when they were at their absolute peak. All the PAC haters here seem to dwell on "but you lost to OREGON STATE!!!!" Newsflash, they're #24, and could finish up with 10 wins.