T1B

The Conservatives will lose the next election in spite of the Sponsorgate mess, still within political memory (although only just).

The Tories will lose for, like the Bourbons, they have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.

Before proceeding, let me make it clear that I am no Liberal. I was when a young man but Pierre Trudeau cured me for life of that ailment. For the record, I've voted Green in the last three elections and probably will again.

The Tories will lose because the public doesn't much like Stephen Harper or his politics and will look elsewhere. But it goes much deeper than that.

The Tories have never been the natural governing party; at least not since the First World War. They have been the party of privilege, of white Protestants, of the British connection and old ways of doing things. This tradition became acutely obvious after the Second World War, when George Drew became Tory leader in 1948, replacing John Bracken who had made the party inclusive of the Prairies when he forced the amalgamation of the Conservative Party with the Progressives, which he had lead in Manitoba.

Alberta's bad image

Let's pause here for a moment. Perhaps it's more creditable to have a party that sacrifices winning for open debate and bloodletting than have one that is so intent upon and so used to power that it can hold together no matter how stormy the political landscape.

But my point is not to criticize or praise anyone but merely make the point that the Liberal Party of Canada has a history of binding its wounds and moving back into contention while the Conservative party has not. There is a reason for this.

The Conservatives, while they will have Red Tories (such as Joe Clark) from time to time, still represent money and privilege. Or perhaps I should say appear this way. Ordinary, middle-class Canadians do not, naturally, feel comfortable with the Conservatives. Their huge political strength in oil-rich Alberta puts into clear view the type of people the Tories appeal to. Their image becomes brash and insensitive, right wing and rich, throw 'em in jail and hang 'em high. This isn't how Conservatives in other regions see themselves.