T1B

Trying to figure out the at-large bids, and being inclined to err on the side of caution, as well as account for tournament play still to come, this is how it looks to me right now . . .

ACC: In: North Carolina, Duke, Fredo, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech. On the bubble: Georgia Tech, Florida State and Clemson.
Big East: In: Georgetown, Louisville, Pitt, ND, Marquette. On the bubble: Syracuse, Villanova, and West Virginia (note: I've heard DePaul mentioned in this breath as well, but imho they need to win the Big East tournament to get in).
Pac-10: In: UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, USC, Arizona. On the bubble: Stanford.
Big 10: In: tOSU, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana. On the bubble: Illinois.
Big 12: In: Kansas, aTm, Texas, Kansas State. On the bubble: Taco Tech.
SEC: In: Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee. On the bubble: Alabama.
Mountain West: In: Air Force, BYU, UNLV. On the bubble: San Diego State.
Missouri Valley: In: Creighton (auto bid), Southern Illinois. On the bubble: Missouri State.
Atlantic 10: In: Xavier, UMass.
Colonial Athletic Association: No one in yet. On the bubble: Virginia Commonwealth, Old Dominion, Drexel. I'm including this conference because imho, this conference will get at least two bids.

Assuming that the automatic bid in each of these conferences comes from among the teams I have in, that would mean I have 27 of the 34 at-large bids allotted as things stand right now. That would leave seven remaining. In addition, I have the following teams earning at-large bids if they fail to earn their conference's automatic bid. However, should any of these teams win their conference tournament, that conference figures to be a single-bid conference this year:

Butler (Horizon)
Memphis (C-USA)
Nevada (WAC)

Taco Tech is in (gotta hope for that 7-10 matchup between TTU and IU), along with VCU. Clemson and Syracuse should clear the bar as well.

Alabama is out.

Some of these teams' seasons will come down to the conference tourneys this week. Imo, the selection committee's choice between an above-average mid-major and a very average major will be less difficult this year, as there are a ton of so-so teams out there.

The Big East and Big 10 tournaments should be phenomenal this year. Usually the Big East is easily the most overrated, overhyped conference in the country (at least by ESPN and CBS), but not this year.

Terry in Crapchester wrote:Trying to figure out the at-large bids, and being inclined to err on the side of caution, as well as account for tournament play still to come, this is how it looks to me right now . . .

Pac-10: In: UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, USC, Arizona. On the bubble: Stanford.

If either Stanford or Washington has a good P-X tourney, they're in.

ACC- Think you've got that pretty accurate. My guess is only one of the bubble teams gets in and that'll be GT. Clemson has an outside shot still but they're 17-0 was very hollow and they're only 4-9 since.

BEAST- I personally think Syracuse is already in but agree with everything else.

Pac10- I think Stanford just needs 1 tourney win to get in while Washington would need to win the auto bid IMO.

Big 10- I don't think MSU is locked up yet because if they lose their 1st round BTT game they'll be sweating it out on SS. I'd put Purdue on the bubble as well as IMO if they beat Iowa they'll get in.

Big 12- I'd swap TexTech and KSU in your pecking order.

SEC- I think Bama is on the bubble about as much as nearly every other team from the West division. IMO all of those teams would need at least 2 tourney wins to get in.

MWC- Agreed.

MVC- Agreed.

A-10- I still think UMass is on the bubble and needs a couple tourney wins to get in.

Colonial- I think they'll be a 2-3 bid league as well. ODU and Drexel really hurt their at-large chances with their tourney performances though and now Mason has a shot to get the auto bid.

Terry in Crapchester wrote:However, should any of these teams win their conference tournament, that conference figures to be a single-bid conference this year:

Butler (Horizon)
Memphis (C-USA)
Nevada (WAC)

What, no mention of the MAC? For shame.

Don't see anybody beating Akron. They'll take it.


btw - after the G'town win, who still considered Syracuse a bubble team?

MgoBlue-LightSpecial wrote:

Terry in Crapchester wrote:However, should any of these teams win their conference tournament, that conference figures to be a single-bid conference this year:

Butler (Horizon)
Memphis (C-USA)
Nevada (WAC)

What, no mention of the MAC? For shame.

Don't see anybody beating Akron. They'll take it.

I see Akron, or possibly Toledo, being the team to beat in the MAC. The reason I didn't include the MAC in my analysis, though, is that I don't see any way the MAC is a two-bid conference this year. If Akron and Toledo make the finals of the MAC tournament this year, the loser is NIT-bound.

By contrast, Butler, Memphis and Nevada all play in conferences that will be either one- or two-bid conferences, depending on the results of their conference tourneys. All have done enough to merit an at-large selection should they fail to win their conference tourney, but no other team in their conference has.

btw - after the G'town win, who still considered Syracuse a bubble team?

Note that I said initially I was erring on the side of caution. That being said, of all the teams I had on the bubble, Syracuse is the one I'm most confident about going.

Shine wrote:Pac10- Washington would need to win the auto bid IMO

Go ahead and edit out the "IMO."

Seer is smoking crack again.

In the entire history of the Tourney, no PAC10 team has ever been given a berth with a sun-.500 conference record.

That is not how they roll.

Auto-berth or bust for UDub...thank goodness. Hucking Fuskies. Since they have NO CHANCE in the conference tourney...if for no other reason, than they won a grand total of one road game this season...yes, I typed that right...one.

I think you could make a pretty convincing argument that K State doesn't belong. rpi 61 or 59 ish depending where you look....1-5 against rpi top 50 teams.....and while it's overstated a lot playing the north schedule is easier than playing UT, ATM, Tech, and OSU twice....when you get Colorado, ISU, Nebraska, Mizzou so cosmetic win total of 20 reflects that.

Stanford is 5-6 against rpi top 50, by comparison to KSU, a "bubble team" and i think there's no doubt were it not for the shadow conference quotas you could certainly make a much better argument for Michigan or Illinois...even maybe Purdue in the Big 10 than KSU.

the rpi ain't everything by a long shot but record against top 50 seems pretty meaningful to me.

part of me would like to see the committee take 3 teams from the Big XII--UT, KU, ATM and leave out KSU and Tech. but, the Huggy and RMK factor will likely get them both in.

King Crimson wrote:Stanford is 5-6 against rpi top 50, by comparison to KSU, a "bubble team" and i think there's no doubt were it not for the shadow conference quotas you could certainly make a much better argument for Michigan or Illinois...even maybe Purdue in the Big 10 than KSU.

I'd take KST over Michigan on a neutral court. Easily. I dunno if you've seen them play, but Michigan literally has no strengths. They really can't do anything.

At least KST has beaten a team currently in the top 25 (impressive too, beating Tejas on the road). Not Michigan. Plus, Northwestern and Minnesota are their only two conference road wins. They have a whopping three total.

maybe Purdue and Illinois are better examples than Michigan but i'll play along for kicks.

7 of K-State's 10 conference wins--their big tournament resume calling card--are against teams with rpi 100 or more. outside the Texas win, the other 2 are (77) Missouri. KSU has two wins against teams with a better rpi than them (USC, 53). KSU only has 3 road wins in conference...which is only one more than 2. Michigan has 5 wins against teams with a better rpi than them.

Michigan beat MSU (22), Illinois (35), Purdue (35), Indiana (23) for half their conference wins.

KSU beat Baylor (144), OU (107), ISU twice (129), Nebraska (108), Colorado twice (234) for 70% of their conference wins. toss in Mizzou twice at 77 and that's 90%. and only one team rpi 50 or less.

regardless, i think Purdue and Illinois both have a much better case than KSU. and Michigan a pretty sound one.

I'd rather see KSU in it than Mich (if it came down to that), if for nothing else just to have Martin get some national exposure.

King Crimson wrote:I think you could make a pretty convincing argument that K State doesn't belong. rpi 61 or 59 ish depending where you look....1-5 against rpi top 50 teams.....and while it's overstated a lot playing the north schedule is easier than playing UT, ATM, Tech, and OSU twice....when you get Colorado, ISU, Nebraska, Mizzou so cosmetic win total of 20 reflects that.

This just in sport, but Mizzou went 4-2 against the South teams. They must really suck, eh? The South, that is.

Wait, you were trying to shit on K-State and their for shit competition in the North, right? Remember that game where Nebraska beat KSU behind 41 points from that gargantuan fuck Maric? Of course you do.

both OK schools stinkin it up helped that out a lot. so, yeah, the south did suck....but playing UT, ATM, and Tech twice .....Mizzou goes 1-5 in that home-home series IMO. a quick 5 spot in the loss column makes things tough....versus 6 games against NU, ISU, and CU which tends to work the other way.

this will be the first time in 25+ years that neither OK school will make the NCAA.

seriously, with Huggy and Anderson i expect the North to be much more competitive than it has been the last 5 years or so. note in my original post i say "it's overstated" the difference b/ween the divisions. now, football....that's where it may be ugly for a while.

It doesn't look like Wisconsin going to be able to save Missouri State unless most of the tournament seeds hold true. Any more party-crashers taking auto bids and MSU's NIT card is punched.

Not that it isn't already, mind you. The tournament committee has a history of sending them packing, regardless of our RPI. I think we boasted a 24 a couple years ago and were left on the outside.

Last year, MO State had the highest RPI (RPI=21) of all the schools to miss the Big Dance.

Hoping some of the bubble schools (Stanford, Cuse, Illinois) bite the big one early in their respective tourneys.

orcinus wrote:It doesn't look like Wisconsin going to be able to save Missouri State unless most of the tournament seeds hold true. Any more party-crashers taking auto bids and MSU's NIT card is punched.

The Butler loss hurt them, no doubt. But while there have been some upsets in the conference tournaments already played, most of those were single-bid conferences. As I see it, Wright State is the only team so far to take away an at-large bid from somebody.

And many of the conference tourneys left to play are multi-bid conferences anyway. So unless a complete darkhorse comes in and takes one of those tournament championships, you won't see an at-large bid stolen by those conferences.

That said, if I were a Missouri State fan, right about now I'd be a huge fan of Nevada, Memphis, and to a lesser extent, Xavier (although I think the A10 will get two bids regardless).