How many wins does Dice K get this year?

War Wagon · Post by **War Wagon** » Fri Mar 30, 2007 1:57 am

I say 17, unless his arm falls off mid June with all the work he's going to get. 200 innings plus is what I'm expecting. Anyone catch the SI article about this guys training regimen, or lack thereof? Seems Japanese pitchers frown on icing their arms, ever.

Anyways, I think this guy is going to make a big splash. Rack me in advance for ~~picking~~ stealing him in the 4th round of my FBB league.

Shoalzie · Post by **Shoalzie** » Fri Mar 30, 2007 2:17 am

I'm probably answering my own question but, would he really be getting this much hype if he signed with a team not named the Red Sox or Yankees? I imagine he's very good but his hype has probably been magnified because of the uniform he's wearing. I heard more stories about him in spring training than I did about the two teams who played in the World Series last year. Heck, the only time ESPN really mentioned the Tigers was because of Sheffield and his days as a Yankee.

I voted 11-15, by the way...

War Wagon · Post by **War Wagon** » Fri Mar 30, 2007 2:34 am

Have you seen him pitch yet, Shoalz?

From what I've seen, he's deserving of the hype, and worth the $100 mil or so it took to get him in a BoSox uniform.

No love for the Redass Sox over here, but rack 'em for doing what it took to get that guy on their side.

Shoalzie · Post by **Shoalzie** » Fri Mar 30, 2007 2:42 am

He was impressive in the World Cup thingy last year...I'd like to see him go through the meat-grinder of the American League and face all of those potent lineups. I'm not saying he'll be a bust or be awful but I don't see him coming right in and putting up Cy Young numbers. 14 or 15 wins is more than a generous prediction.

War Wagon · Post by **War Wagon** » Fri Mar 30, 2007 3:44 am

Shoalzie wrote:I'd like to see him go through the meat-grinder of the American League and face all of those potent lineups.

You're going to get your wish.

Baseball season is upon us.

Shoalzie · Post by **Shoalzie** » Fri Mar 30, 2007 3:52 am

The boss is out of town all next week...I'm so tempted to take a "holiday" on Monday.

ucantdoitdoggieSTyle2 · Fri Mar 30, 2007 3:55 pm

Although I don't like the thread topic, I think he will pitch very well. Too many variables go into deciding if a starter gets a win.

Besides their closer, Boston's bullpen will prove to be one of the worst in the league. Who will pitch the 8th? Donnelly and Piniero suck and Timlin is hurt.

Will Varitek stay healthy and catch Dice Gay the whole year? Dude is 35 years old and won't last much longer. Though he can catch the knuckler, Mirabelli is shit as a back-up...

If JD Drew gets hurt or Manny pulls another "Operation Shutdown", the Sox offense will be exposed. 6-9 they are very, very weak. He may lose some 3-2 or 2-1 games....

If pushed for an exact guess, I'd say 14-8 and 3.75 ERA... V-Tek plays about 100 games and the bully blows 4 wins for him. You heard it here first...

War Wagon · Post by **War Wagon** » Fri Mar 30, 2007 4:32 pm

ucantdoitdoggieSTyle2 wrote:Although I don't like the thread topic, I think he will pitch very well. Too many variables go into deciding if a starter gets a win.

Yeah, it is sorta' a loaded question. How many wins a pitcher gets is not indicative of how well he actually pitched.

But that was easier than asking how many innings he'll pitch, how many k's, era, whip, etc. So I just tossed it out there. Not like this forum was burning with hot topics and heated discussion.

I guess I'm kinda' fascinated with Japanese players coming over here and being highly successful, and have been since Ichiro landed. It's the same game, but it's different.

Matsusaka pitches his first game here I believe. By hook or crook, I'll be there watching. I'll give first hand and up close scouting reports on what I saw.

Dinsdale · Post by **Dinsdale** » Fri Mar 30, 2007 5:12 pm

ucantdoitdoggieSTyle2 wrote:Piniero

As someone who's seen a whole buncha Piniero over the last few years...

It's really just going to depend on which Piniero shows up. The guy can be brilliant, or he can be a joke...you never know. Before his injuries, dude had a 84-86mph curve...that was always a sight to behold. In recent years, the bender just doesn't have the same sting to it.

But the thing with that guy, usually even on an "on" day, he rarely can sustain it for more than a few innings. Setup-man might be a good role for him.

jiminphilly · Post by **jiminphilly** » Sun Apr 01, 2007 8:50 pm

Pat Burrell took him yard. How good can he be?

rozy · Post by **rozy** » Sun Apr 01, 2007 9:27 pm

The antithesis to Cardinal fan? I give you...Phillie fan.

Cicero · Post by **Cicero** » Sun Apr 01, 2007 10:50 pm

15-7 w/ an ERA around 3.75. I think he will have a good offense to back him up. I see him starting out on fire, like maybe 8-2. I think he will tire a little bit as the season goes on as well the b/c of the intense media scrutiny from both Boston and Japan.

jiminphilly · Post by **jiminphilly** » Mon Apr 02, 2007 10:37 am

rozy wrote:The antithesis to Cardinal fan? I give you...Phillie fan.

So you're a fan of Burrell?

rozy · Post by **rozy** » Mon Apr 02, 2007 11:28 am

jiminphilly wrote:
rozy wrote:The antithesis to Cardinal fan? I give you...Phillie fan.
So you're a fan of Burrell?

I rest my case. Baseball acumen does not necessarily equate to fanship.

And to the point of the matter, which is your initial comment... I guess the 188 bombs he has hit in the last 7 years have all come off of middle relievers?

jiminphilly · Post by **jiminphilly** » Mon Apr 02, 2007 1:24 pm

rozy wrote:
jiminphilly wrote:
rozy wrote:The antithesis to Cardinal fan? I give you...Phillie fan.
So you're a fan of Burrell?
I rest my case. Baseball acumen does not necessarily equate to fanship.

And to the point of the matter, which is your initial comment... I guess the 188 bombs he has hit in the last 7 years have all come off of middle relievers?

I don't derail this thready by going off on Burrell. If you really want to discuss last year's leader in 'caugh looking' strikeouts, I'll be happy to discuss.

As for Dice K, I agree with Shoalize in that he'll start off hot and win his first 6-7 starts (with a loss or 2 in there as well). Though the Pacific league in Japan also had the DH, he will for the most part be facing better overall talent that will probably catch on to this 'stuff' the 2nd or 3rd go-around. The majority of the scouting of this guy will be done over the first half of the year. I think you'll see some teams make adjustments against him in the 2nd half. What will impact him more than anything is the long season coupled with the amount travel and media members hounding him. Also, the Japanese leagues also tend to use a smaller, lighter ball which probably inflated his numbers a bit. Look for his ERA to be close to 4 with about 15 wins.

Good enough for you Rozy?

Neely8 · Post by **Neely8** » Thu Apr 05, 2007 9:23 pm

Well it looks like win #1 is in the books. Didn't get to see it, but stats seem to say that he was pretty dominant. Gonna be fun watching this kid.....

War Wagon · Post by **War Wagon** » Thu Apr 05, 2007 11:00 pm

War Wagon wrote: Matsusaka pitches his first game here I believe. By hook or crook, I'll be there watching. I'll give first hand and up close scouting reports on what I saw.

After 3 hours of freezing my fucking ass off at the game, I think I've thawed out enough to peck out a take on what I saw from Dice K today. It was 82 degrees here on Monday. :brad:

He started out a bit shaky in the first inning giving up a lead-off hit and then a two out walk, but pitched his way out of that mini-jam. As the game went on he seemed to grow more poised and confidant and at one point retired 10 straight batters amidst striking out the side in the 4th. It didn't hurt that the ump had a wide strike zone, but Greinke was also getting those calls. Royals hitters also took some pitches for strike 3 that had me scratching my head and asking "why the fuck didn't they swing at that pitch"? I guess they were that fooled by fastballs right down the middle.

Anyways, very solid effort with 7.0 innings pitched and 10 K's. Gave up a bomb to DeJejus in the 6th, but other than that, a very respectable showing. The freezing ass weather probably didn't hurt his cause much as that usually is an advantage to the pitcher. Freaking circus atmosphere out there with some 130 Japanese reporters crawling all over the joint.

All in all, I'd say this guy is as advertized. 15 wins is a cinch.

orcinus · Post by **orcinus** » Fri Apr 06, 2007 1:24 am

War Wagon wrote: All in all, I'd say this guy is as advertized. 15 wins is a cinch.

I'll go against the grain here. DiceK will benefit from a couple things early on. For one, he's an unknown commodity. Players and hitting coaches don't have the luxury of game film on him, and that delivery is something that will take some getting used to. He's going to have an inflated value early on and, as others have suggested, should benefit during April and May.

A couple of things stick out there to temper expectations.

First, DiceK faced the Royals. While they may be a team on the rebound this year, he did give up a couple hits (including a bomb) to David DeJesus, and then allowed the overhyped thus far Alex Gordon to get his first hit. Previously, Gordon hasn't been able to hit anything, including several pitches right down Broadway against Schilling.

Second, he'll see brand new lineups when the second and third series roll around in the AL East. Once scouts get a bead on him, he's going to face an uphill battle as the temperature rises.

Good pitcher ... yes.

Great pitcher?

We'll see. I think a dozen wins or so with Boston's mashers isn't out of the question; however, the ERA will be a bit higher than what's being tossed out there. When the dust settles, I think low to mid-threes might be a bit more realistic.

So I'm not on the fence, though, mark me down for 13 wins and a 3.15 ERA.

War Wagon · Post by **War Wagon** » Fri Apr 06, 2007 2:03 am

orcinus wrote: ..allowed the overhyped thus far Alex Gordon to get his first hit. Previously, Gordon hasn't been able to hit anything, including several pitches right down Broadway against Schilling.

Hater, it's only 3 games into the season. A bit early to be pulling out the overhyped card, yes?

Never a bad time to get your first major league hit. He'll keep that ball up on his mantle for a trivia question 20 years from now.

orcinus · Post by **orcinus** » Fri Apr 06, 2007 2:13 am

Not a hater, but he's a rookie that has yet to adjust to big-boy pitching. Even Schilling the Walrus, was throwing meat right past him.

Sure, he'll get better.

I just think he's extremely overhyped right now. We'll see what happens come July.

War Wagon · Post by **War Wagon** » Fri Apr 06, 2007 3:02 am

To tell the troof, he looks overmatched thus far.

BoSox pitching staff can do that to a feller. That Josh Beckett guy who pitched last night? Simply overpowering. I heard some tool on ESPN saying that Dice K had the better stuff. That guy don't know what he's talkin' about.

Shoalzie · Post by **Shoalzie** » Fri Apr 06, 2007 12:41 pm

I'll give it up to Dice-K, a very impressive debut...against the Royals. It is the same team that pounded on Schilling on opening day. I think the fact he's in the #3 spot in the rotation...he's more times than not going to be better than the guy he's opposing. He's definitely the best #3 in the AL East. He's probably going to be better than the most of the #3s and #4s in the AL. I'd like to see him in a game at Yankee Stadium or Jacobs Field or Comerica Park against a much superior lineup to the Royals...but from what he did yesterday, I'm sure SoxNation is going bonkers.

orcinus · Post by **orcinus** » Fri Apr 06, 2007 1:59 pm

Agreed, Shoalz.

With that lineup, DiceK should have a hoard of opportunities to pitch with two and three-run leads. I'd wager that Manny and Papi will have as much to say about the win total as the pitcher, himself.

Still worried about what happens to that arm when the dog days roll around.

Dinsdale · Post by **Dinsdale** » Thu Apr 12, 2007 1:52 am

DiceK was clearly the second best pitcher on the field today.

I hate the M's, but Phenom is the real deal.

rozy · Post by **rozy** » Thu Apr 12, 2007 2:25 am

Dinsdale wrote:DiceK was clearly the second best pitcher on the field today.

I hate the M's, but Phenom is the real deal.

And firmly entrenched on both of my fantasy teams. The kid showed up ready to roll this year.

Neely8 · Post by **Neely8** » Thu Apr 12, 2007 4:21 pm

Hell of a performance by the Seattle kid last night. Dice didn't pitch bad but when the offense gets shut down like that he has no chance. Filthy.....

War Wagon · Post by **War Wagon** » Fri Apr 13, 2007 7:52 pm

rozy wrote:
Dinsdale wrote:DiceK was clearly the second best pitcher on the field today.

I hate the M's, but Phenom is the real deal.
And firmly entrenched on both of my fantasy teams. The kid showed up ready to roll this year.

Same here. Unreal that I snagged King Felix with the 67th overall pick and the 11th SP taken in my draft. And here I thought that I had stolen Dice K at the 47th pick.

And unlike my concern for Dice, I don't see Felix breaking down too much over the course of the season.