T1B

Jsc810 wrote:parlay

BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!


Sin,
Math




SHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!

Sin,
JSC's Bookie



Michigan is a great bet getting 8.5 at home. The others -- only a crazy person would touch those with a ten foot pole.

Have to agree with Dins......parlays are ridiculously poor bets. You don't get paid anywhere close to real odds. Bet each of the games straight........sucks to hit 2 out of 3 and lose money.

As for your plays well I just can't imagine taking ND and GIVING points!!! Also 25.5 seems like a shitload of points for Bama to cover. Michigan I have no feel for.......it almost looks like Vegas wants you to take the 8.5.......I haven't had the best of years betting CFB so the fact I don't like a couple of your plays probably bodes well for you.

Don't bet the parlay though.....very poor wager. For the record teasers are even worse.

If you like your three plays, bet them individually, if possible.

Here's all you need to know about parlays -- starting in like 1990, up through this last season, our State Run Mafia, aka the Liquor Control Commission (they run the booze and the numbers rackets here... shouldn't be too long before they open brothels), had a NFL parlay game. You may remember the NFL sueing the crap out of the state of Oregon, and losing... but the Lottery Commission couldn't use the name NFL or any team names... prompting the NFL's response of "the state of Oregon will NEVER have an NFL team, ever." Wasn't a huge revenue producer, and the NCAA just last year bribed them into dropping Sports Action in exchange for an NCAA regional and eventually a Final Four, which will probably have greater overall economic benefit.


But anyhoo -- Oregon's lottery games (which are quite numerous) are notoriously unfair. They run video poker and slots, and offer worse payouts than even the most jacked-up airport casino in Nevada.


Bottom line -- if the Oregon Mafia wants you to play it -- it's a horrrrrible bet.


Now sure, I used to play 3-team parlays, and sometimes more even, but I could justify it in a couple of ways. For one, we could play as little as $2 on a ticket. For another, you could buy the tickets at any grocery or convenience store, and I live next to a 7-11. Walk on over in a Sunday morning hungover haze, and go throw down $4 for the football games. $2 on something I though I could hit, like a 3-way(which paid a WHOLE $10), and usually one shoot-for-the-moon longshot (the 14 game parlays were paramutual and had a rollover).


And what Mook said. Michigan seems like a no-brainer. Either that line is going to move like a bad dog, or the oddsmakers know something we don't.

I'm seeing Michigan +4 everywhere......if you can get 8.5 consider it a gift.

And I'll throw some of the plays I'm looking at out there. That way my lack of CFB gambling expertise can be questioned as well.

I wasn't trying to discourage you from your plays.......just the parlay.

Here's who I'm looking at:

Nevada +7
Arizona +11
Northwestern +14
Oklahoma -8 - I'm not a big fan of road chalk but IMHO T. Tech is terrible this year.
Mississippi St. +11
Iowa State +26.5

And possibly Kansas State +7. If I play this game it would be a purely situational play. KSU coming off an epic beatdown and Missouri with a rather "big" game looming next week. Very dangerous spot for the Tigers.

By all means play the plays you like Jsc and good luck with whatever you decide on the games.

Mook wrote:Arizona +11

I'm generally a bigfan of home dogs, and thursday night home dogs are $$$$, but there's more going on here...


Arizona piled-on Oregon's meltdown at Autzen last year. And I've heard a lot of Ducks radio stuff this week, and there's some very large chips on a lot of shoulders. Plus, you now have the Dixon Your Mouth Heisman hype, which DD finally acknowledged, and said winning would be a testament to the O-line and skill players. There's quite a bit of extra motivation in this one.

Now, don't get me wrong... I'm not saying take Oregon (I'd never play a team I rooted for anyway -- great rule-of-thumb). I'd never recommend an 11 point raod favorite. I'm just saying it would be a good one to avoid like the plague.

Dinsdale wrote:

Mook wrote:Arizona +11

I'm generally a bigfan of home dogs, and thursday night home dogs are $$$$, but there's more going on here...


Arizona piled-on Oregon's meltdown at Autzen last year. And I've heard a lot of Ducks radio stuff this week, and there's some very large chips on a lot of shoulders. Plus, you now have the Dixon Your Mouth Heisman hype, which DD finally acknowledged, and said winning would be a testament to the O-line and skill players. There's quite a bit of extra motivation in this one.

Now, don't get me wrong... I'm not saying take Oregon (I'd never play a team I rooted for anyway -- great rule-of-thumb). I'd never recommend an 11 point raod favorite. I'm just saying it would be a good one to avoid like the plague.

If I was smart I would avoid.......but I'm a bit of a degenerate and need action. LOL.............Line is going down, most of the $$ are on the Ducks; I'm a sucker for the reverse line move.

Before you take Arizona +11

Did you know

Every unranked team that Oregon has played this year, Michigan (unranked at the time), Houston, Fresno State, Washington, Washington State, Stanford, has been at least a 21 point victory.

Maybe it won't happen tonight, but I wouldn't be putting any of my money down on a team 2 games under .500 to keep it close.

Mook wrote:I'm a sucker for the reverse line move.

Can't say I blame you.

Aside from getting "inside info" from a fan, ie rumored injuries and that sort of thing that homers always know about... never listen to a homer's thoughts on betting his team.

But trying to stay neutral despite my dog in the fight, that one would worry me. It's the Ducks' chance to score the proverbial "stlye points" in front of a large national audience. Chances are they'll take it against an inferior opponent.

JayDuck wrote:Before you take Arizona +11

Did you know

Every unranked team that Oregon has played this year, Michigan (unranked at the time), Houston, Fresno State, Washington, Washington State, Stanford, has been at least a 21 point victory.

Maybe it won't happen tonight, but I wouldn't be putting any of my money down on a team 2 games under .500 to keep it close.

It's probably a bad bet........I'm sure the Vegas oddsmakers were unaware of the stats you just mentioned and still set the line at Oregon -12.5........now with a majority of the $$ on Oregon they have moved the line to Oregon -11. I love home underdogs, especially in conference play, it's a weakness of mine and tonight I'm probably burning money.

Mook wrote:I love home underdogs, especially in conference play, it's a weakness of mine and tonight I'm probably burning money.

Again, can't say I blame you. Thursday night home dogs are generally so gold, you could make hay on doing a whole season's worth.


But this one seems like a sucker's bet. But since the only input you've got on it so far has come from two over-the-top Oregon honks, you might get some neutral input if you have any doubts. A non-Oregon-fan-PAC10-guy might be a good person to ask.

Dinsdale wrote:

Mook wrote:I love home underdogs, especially in conference play, it's a weakness of mine and tonight I'm probably burning money.

Again, can't say I blame you. Thursday night home dogs are generally so gold, you could make hay on doing a whole season's worth.


But this one seems like a sucker's bet. But since the only input you've got on it so far has come from two over-the-top Oregon honks, you might get some neutral input if you have any doubts. A non-Oregon-fan-PAC10-guy might be a good person to ask.

I really do agree with you guys. But I figure this a long term plus value play for me. If I play all home dogs in these situations I'll be ahead. I'm not too concerned with any one game........this play frankly has nothing to do with Oregon/Arizona. I decided to put the crystal ball away a long time ago!

In college my first foray into betting with a bookie saw me as strictly a parlay bettor. I would usually bet about 5-6 $30 parlays a week. I was nailz early and was bringing in some good coin. I'm sure you know where this is headed but I of course eventually cooled down and gave all my winnings back plus some. I ended up becoming good friends with my bookie and he later told me how much coin he made off of me. When I was hot early betting $30 parlays he was taking each individual play of mine and throwing $500 on them. I very rarely went 0-2 on my parlays then so while he was maybe having to pay me $200 bucks each week he was collecting like $4000 off my picks. He knew I would go cold so he started betting $500 against each of my individual plays, so that while I was giving him back everything he was still bringing in his money.

Anyfuck, parlays are sucker bets. And as Mook correctly pointed out if a parlay is a bad idea, a teaser is like snapping a pic of yourself in oversized ladies undies and getting it posted online.

The line on Oregon/Arizona is now 10.5......