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The electrical equipment industry is surging...

Posted: Sat Jan 05, 2008 2:56 am
by KC Scott
Investor's Business Daily
Getting Power To The People
Friday January 4, 5:51 pm ET
Patrick Seitz

The electrical equipment industry is surging.
Increasing demand for new electric power and the gear to distribute it are stimulating the industry, as is the need to upgrade aging infrastructure.

Industrialized countries are upgrading their electrical grids and transmission equipment while adding new power sources, such as wind and nuclear plants, to the grid.

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Developing countries such as China and India are trying to build up their infrastructures to meet the demands of industry and their growing populations.

1. Business

IBD's electrical equipment industry group includes stocks from 35 companies. All but five are based in the U.S.

The group is a diverse set. It includes companies that make gear for transmitting and distributing electricity, companies involved in backup and standby power supplies, and those involved in making electricity distribution more efficient. Some companies in the group specialize in batteries or motors.

The largest company in the group is ABB (NYSE:ABB - News), a Swiss manufacturer of automation and power products and systems used in industrial and utility processes.

ABB said Dec. 18 that it won orders worth $440 million from the State Grid Corporation of China and other partners to provide new ultrahigh-voltage technology for the world's longest power transmission link.

The power superhighway, running 1,240 miles from western China to the highly industrialized coastal area in the east, will have a capacity of 6,400 megawatts. That is enough to meet the needs of about 31 million people in China. The link from the Xiangjiaba hydropower plant to Shanghai is scheduled for completion in 2011.

Much of what electrical equipment companies supply is standardized hardware, so they have to generate business by offering high quality service and reliability. Having a good reputation is critical, analysts say.

"It's a relationship business," said John Franzreb, an analyst with Sidoti & Co.

Name Of The Game: Because the electrical gear business is a commodity business, companies have to focus more on their relationships with customers and meeting their expectations.

2. Market

Customers in the electrical equipment group include utility companies, telecommunications and tech companies needing backup power, and industries that rely on batteries to power machines such as forklifts.

Top-performing stocks in the group lately have included American Superconductor (NasdaqGM:AMSC - News), Harbin Electric (NasdaqGM:HRBN - News) and Raser Technologies (NYSEArca:RZ - News).

American Superconductor of Westborough, Mass., serves the utility, industrial and wind power markets with a host of energy technologies based on proprietary high temperature superconductor wires and power electronic systems.

China-based Harbin makes motors and controller systems for applications ranging from oil pumps to automobiles.

And Raser, based in Provo, Utah, develops high-performance electric motor and controller technology for clean, renewable power. It's involved in geothermal energy and hybrid and electric vehicles.

3. Climate

Shortcomings of power networks in developed countries have led to calls for improved infrastructure to prevent power outages and to meet growing demands for electricity.

Some industries are looking for better backup and standby power systems to keep running in the event of a power outage.

Telecommunications companies are big customers for reserve backup power systems, which often use lead-acid batteries. EnerSys (NYSE:ENS - News) and C&D Technologies (NYSE:CHP - News) are major suppliers of systems using lead-acid batteries. (See related story, this page.)

The Federal Communications Commission Oct. 2 mandated that the amount of backup power in cellular communications towers be doubled to eight hours within two years.

Demand for new sources of power has led to the need for more gear to connect those plants to the electrical grid. These new power plants are often green or environmentally friendly facilities that tap wind and geothermal power sources.

Wind power is a common theme of a lot of new business. In September, ABB won an order worth more than $400 million from a German utility firm to supply the power equipment that will connect the world's largest offshore wind farm to the German grid.

The increased demand for electricity is necessitating the upgrading and buildout of power transmission grids in industrialized countries, says Stuart Bush, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets. Developing countries are installing new electricity grids, he says.

The focus has shifted to electrical efficiency while new systems are being put in place, he says.

A number of companies have products to save power at the point 15f use or have technologies for making the electrical grid more efficient.

4. Technology

The electrical equipment industry sells mostly tried and true, standardized hardware. But some new technologies and approaches have come to the fore.

American Superconductor makes wires that can transmit much more power than traditional copper wires. The mass rollout of superconducting wire is still a couple of years away, but holds tremendous promise for the company and industry, says Walter Nasdeo, an analyst with Ardour Capital.

Comverge (NasdaqGM:COMV - News) of East Hanover, N.J., has taken a new approach to the electricity market with products that can significantly reduce peak electricity costs and increase grid reliability.

Its "smart megawatts" technology is widespread. It's used by over 500 U.S. utility clients. The company has installed 4.5 million devices.

Describing itself as a leading "clean energy" company, Comverge has grown through acquisitions since its IPO in April.

Comverge bought Enerwise Global Technologies in July to create the largest demand response company in the industry. And in October, Comverge picked up Public Energy Solutions.

5. Outlook

The electrical equipment industry is in the early to mid-stage of the current utility market buying cycle, analysts say.

"We're looking at a five- to seven-year cycle at this point 14d we're probably in year two or three," Franzreb says. Historically, cycles have lasted three years, but companies still have major backlogs, he says.

"You're reading about new jobs going on all over the place," Franzreb said. Those jobs are for new capacity as well as replacements and upgrades of electrical gear.

Just look at ABB: in the last three months, it has announced major power system deals in Germany, India, Namibia, Angola and China.

The outlook is bullish for the industry because it takes a long time for companies to ramp up electricity supplies, Bush says.

"Fundamentally, it boils down to the fact that people continue to use more electricity," Bush said. "That's both developing countries and industrial countries."

Think about your own home, he says. Each person is using more electricity today than ever with more PCs, big-screen TVs and consumer electronics, he says.

Upside: Electricity demand is forecast to rise, necessitating more electrical equipment to transmit, distribute and store electricity.

Developed countries are replacing their old electrical grid infrastructure with high-capacity, more reliable equipment, as well as better backup systems. Developing countries are playing catch-up, putting in new infrastructure for booming industrial and residential areas.

Risks: Competition is intense in the electrical equipment business since much of the gear is standardized.

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I'm in agreement with the worldwide build out of electric - this is a good play

I like ABB - but their 1 yr. chart is broken.
The 3 yr. weekly chart puts a buy around $26

Re: The electrical equipment industry is surging...

Posted: Sat Jan 05, 2008 2:57 am
by KC Scott
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Morningstar.com
Two Growth Stocks to Sparkle in 2008
Monday December 24, 7:00 am ET
By Tom D'Amore, CFA


We're bullish on the prospects for share price appreciation for Siemens (NYSE:SI - News) and ABB Ltd. (NYSE:ABB - News) in 2008. Despite stellar returns in 2007 (37% for Siemens and 43% for ABB), we think that strong earnings growth will lead to superior stock price gains in 2008 for both companies. Our research shows a strong positive correlation between individual stock performance and earnings growth in the large-cap diversified industrial space. For the period 2001 to the present, we reviewed annual earnings changes and stock price movements for the six largest global diversified industrial companies: 3M (NYSE:MMM - News), ABB , General Electric (NYSE:GE - News), Honeywell (NYSE:HON - News), Siemens , and United Technologies (NYSE:UTX - News). We call this group our Big Six global industrials. Consistent with basic market intuition, we found that in five of the seven years analyzed, the industrial company that turned in the best stock price performance in a given year also had the highest growth in that earnings.
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An equal-weighted portfolio composed of our Big Six global industrial companies bested the performance of the MSCI World Index between the start of 2001 and Dec. 17, 2007, generating a return of 61% compared with the 30% return of the MSCI World Index--but that's not the end of the story. Our analysis indicates that stock price movements are highly correlated with annual earnings growth in the large-cap diversified industrial category. In a hypothetical portfolio in which we bought the stock that turned in the highest earnings growth for a given year--purchasing it at the beginning of the year and selling it at the end of the year--we were able to generate an eye-popping paper gain of more than 590% for the seven-year period.

We think the results of our study are compelling and comport with basic investing principles. Over time, a stock's price tends to move with a company's earnings. When earnings increase, valuations tend to go up as well. While we recognize that stock prices tend to move ahead of earnings, we think our research indicates that stock prices in the large-cap industrial sector do not fully reflect all of the earnings growth potential prior to the year in which it is recognized. As a result, an investing strategy that isolates the large-cap industrial company with the best earnings prospects prior to the start of its fiscal year should outperform a portfolio strategy, which equally weights each of the stocks in the group.

Our back-tested portfolio requires advanced knowledge of which companies will generate the highest earnings growth, but we're confident in our ability to identify those companies with the best earnings prospects as we move into the new year. Based on our bottom-up analysis of the outlook for the global drive industrial sector, we determined that among the six largest global diversified industrial companies, ABB and Siemens have the best prospects for earnings growth in 2008. We think that Siemens, based in Munich, Germany, will top the field with a 20% earnings pickup, and we think that ABB, based in Zurich, Switzerland, and Stockholm, Sweden, will run a close second and turn in an impressive 19% earnings increase. Both companies are well-positioned to serve the rapidly industrializing emerging markets. We discuss each company's earnings outlook in detail below.

Siemens 2008 Outlook
9% Sales Growth
20% Earnings Growth
In 2007 Siemens made significant strategic changes to its business. Siemens sold its automotive components business for 11.6 billion euros and merged its telecom equipment business into a joint venture with Nokia (NYSE:NOK - News). Both businesses were underperformers, and we think that by trimming these problem segments from the fold, management will be free to focus on improving the profitability of Siemens' core remaining businesses. We expect Siemens' new CEO Peter Loscher to focus management's attention on cost-cutting actions and efficient manufacturing practices to boost operating margins. In addition, Siemens is expanding in core business segments with higher-than-average operating margins, such as in medical products. In 2007, Siemens acquired medical diagnostic equipment maker Dade-Behring. Before it was acquired, Dade was generating operating margins in the high teens, well above the 7.4% consolidated operating margins Siemens reported in fiscal 2007. Due to the impact of portfolio actions and the benefits of efficiency gains, we think that Siemens will be able to boost operating margins by roughly 150 basis points to 9% in 2008.

The outlook for Siemens' top-line growth is also very promising. Siemens' largest business segments are its fastest growing. Powerful global secular trends are driving growth in its largest segments at two to three times global gross domestic product growth. In power generation and power transmission sales, growth is being fueled by substantial demand from emerging-markets customers. We think power-generation-related sales will increase 20% in 2008. Automation and drives should increase sales by about 10%, due to broad investment in manufacturing in eastern Europe, as well as from emerging-markets economies. Siemens' expanded medical products unit should be able to generate high-single-digit sales growth. Combined, the power generation, power transmission, automation, and medical products segments constitute about 50% of Siemens sales. Overall, we project that Siemens will be able to increase its top line by 9% in 2008, comprising 8% organic growth and at least 1% growth in sales from acquisitions. We think that the combination of sales growth and operating margin improvement will drive earnings growth by about 20% in 2008, tops in the diversified industrial group. We expect share price appreciation to match the earnings gains. Our fair value estimate on Siemens ADRs is $190 per share.

ABB Ltd. 2008 Outlook
15% Sales Growth
19% Earnings Growth
ABB Ltd. is riding the crest of the industrial buildout wave in emerging markets. The company can be viewed as broadly serving two enormous markets: power generation and industrial automation. ABB is a market leader in each category and is benefiting from the growth of rapidly industrializing countries in Asia, including China and India. ABB also controls the largest installed base of industrial automation systems in Europe and leads the industry in landing new business for automation systems in Asia. Year-to-date total sales are up 25% compared to last year, and we expect robust sales growth to continue in 2008. As of September 2007, the companyâEuro™s book-to-bill ratio for the year was 1.24.

We project another record year for ABB sales, though sales growth will likely be slightly below the stunning levels of 2007. We project that ABBâEuro�s continuing operations will generate top-line growth of 16% in 2008, reporting total sales of $33.5 billion. In addition, we project that ABB will generate about 80 basis points of operating margin improvement in 2008, due to the effects of favorable operating leverage and the impact of cost control efforts. We think these factors combined will result in earnings growth of about 19% in 2008. Based on past performance in the large-cap industrial sector, we think that ABB's shares will generate a share price return well above average for the diversified industrial group in 2008. Our fair value estimate for ABB ADRs is $36 per share.