Here is how I see it...
Posted: Sun Nov 30, 2008 9:35 pm
Lets looks at all the variables involved with picking the most disserving one-loss teams to play for the MNC including a proposed ‘Bama loss to Florida in the SEC title game. Here are the teams: Texas, Penn St., Texas Tech, Oklahoma, USC, and Florida
Variable #1 - The one loss
Texas - some could argue Texas should have lost by 20 and some could argue that if Texas played the first half like they did the second half, they would have won by 20. Bottom line: They lost on the last play of the game in a hostile environment at night on primetime television to the then #7 team in the country. That is an impressive loss.
Penn St. - Almost the same as Texas, but the opponent wasn't nearly as strong. They had the game won, but just couldn't get any offense going in the 4th quarter. Iowa played their asses off and pulled out a great victory with a last second field goal. Impressive loss for PSU but not as impressive as Texas' defeat.
Texas Tech - they lost by 51 on the road at night in a hostile environment to the then #4 team in the country. They are obviously dead last with regard to this variable. Well, maybe not. I will get back to that later.
Oklahoma - they played well enough to beat Texas, but managed to lose by 10 instead of holding Texas on a crucial defensive stand near the end of the game. Very un-Sooner like. It was on a neutral site during the day on primetime television to the then #5 team in the nation. It's not impressive and its not horrible. It's just okay.
USC - they lost to an unranked opponent on the road on a Friday night to a then unranked Oregon St. However, Oregon St, turned out to be a decent team this season, but not nearly as good as Tech, OU, or Texas. How they lost is a different story. They were down 21-0 at the half and kind of crawled back in the game, but never really was close to sniffing victory. Oregon St. won outright 27-21. It's a so-so loss.
Florida - they lost at home to a then unranked opponent in Ole Miss. If you look at it from that standpoint it’s a horrible loss; however, Ole Miss is a good football team and didn't win convincingly. There was a blocked PAT and a stuffed 4th and 1 play with less than a minute to go that allowed Ole Miss to escape with a victory in the Swamp. It's not an impressive loss but a tough one. It's still a loss at home which is unacceptable if you're the best team in the nation. It's almost as bad as Tech's loss.
Alabama – we really don’t know how this is going to play out, but I suspect a solid win by Florida. Not a blowout, but a 10-14 point loss for the ‘Tide. This is a neutral site loss to one of the better teams in the country, but ‘Bama never had control of the game and Florida is obviously the more dominant team.
Rankings of Variable #1:
Texas
Penn St.
Oklahoma
Alabama
USC
Florida
Texas Tech
Variable #2 - Non-conference schedule
Texas – Florida Atlantic at Home (52-10), UTEP on the road (42-13), RICE at home (52-10), and Arkansas at home (52-10). They are all division 1A opponents, but only one of them is from a power conference. FAU finished the season 6-6, UTEP 5-7, RICE 9-3, and Arkansas 5-7. RICE is probably their most impressive OOC win. It’s not a horrible non-conference schedule, but it’s not impressive either.
Penn St. – Coastal Carolina at Home (66-10), Oregon State at Home (45-14), Syracuse on the road (55-13), and Temple at Home (45-3). Coastal Carolina kills their OOC schedule. If they had top ten team on their OOC schedule, then it might make up for it, but a division I-AA opponent who finished 6-6 on the year is really bad. They won all of their games, but it wasn’t against any great teams. The 45-14 beatdown on Oregon State is pretty deece, but not enough.
Texas Tech – Eastern Washington at Home (49-24), @ Nevada (35-19), SMU (43-7), and UMass (43-7). Probably the bottom of the barrel here. Two I-AA opponents and only one winning team in Nevada (7-5) that they beat on the road…..terrible OOC schedule.
Oklahoma – Chatanooga (52-7), Cincy (52-26), @ Washington (55-14), TCU (35-10). This is a balanced OOC schedule with impressive wins over now ranked Cincy (10-2) and TCU (10-2). The only problem is, the other two opponents combine for a 1-22 mark. And one of those opponents is division I-AA. That draws down the impressive OOC wins a little. Still, it’s a good OOC schedule.
USC - @ Virginia (52-7), Ohio St. (35-3), and Notre Dame (38-3). A very good OOC schedule all against solid opponents and a top ten team. The best OOC schedule in football IMO.
Florida – Hawaii (56-10), Miami, FL (26-3), Citadel (70-19), @ Florida St. (45-15). The Citadel hurts them bad, but the impressive wins over Miami and Florida St. makes up for it. It’s a decent OOC schedule, but no the best.
Alabama – neutral site against Clemson (34-10), Western Kentucky (41-7), Tulane (20-6), and Arkansas St. (35-0). Clemson was their best opponent at 7-5. They played all 1-A opponents, but Tulane and W Kentucky combined for 3 wins total. Arkansas State plays in the weakest IA conference in all of college football. Overall, it is a weak OOC schedule. Not as weak as Tech but weaker than Penn St.
Variable #2 Rankings:
USC
Florida
Oklahoma
Texas
Penn St.
Alabama
Texas Tech
Variable #3 – In conference schedule. I think this should be measured on two fronts, (1) the opponents and (2) the stretch of games.
Texas – 3 road games – Kansas, Texas Tech, and Colorado – 4 home games – Baylor, Texas ATM, Missouri, and Oklahoma St. – 1 neutral game – Oklahoma. Texas’ north opponents finished 1, 3, and 4 in their division with a combined overall record of 21-15. Their southern division opponents had a combined overall record of 39-21 bringing their overall conference opponent tally to 60-36; a very strong in-conference schedule. They also played a stretch of games against the then #1, #11, #6, and #7 teams in the nation. Toughest stretch in football.
Penn St. – 4 Road games – Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio St, and Iowa – 4 home games Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Michigan St. Combined record of their in-conference opponents is 40-53. Their toughest stretch of games was probably Ohio St, Iowa, Indiana, and Michigan St. This is not good.
Texas Tech – 4 Road games – Kansas State, Texas ATM, Kansas, and Oklahoma – 4 home games – Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma St, and Baylor. Their north division opponents finished 2, 3, and 5 with a combined record of 20-16. Their overall conference opponents had a combined record of 59-37; a very impressive in-conference schedule. Their toughest in-conference stretch of games was against then ranked #23, #1, #9, and #5 teams in the nation. Pretty freaking strong, but unlike Texas they had a week off in the middle of that stretch. Very tough stretch of games, but not quite a difficult as Texas’.
Oklahoma – 4 road games – Kansas St., Baylor, Texas ATM, and Oklahoma St. – 3 home games – Kansas, Texas Tech, and Nebraska – 1 neutral game – Texas. Oklahoma’s north opponents finished 2, 3, and 5 in their division with a combined record of 21-15. Their overall conference opponent record was a combined 59-37; really good. Their toughest stretch of games was against Nebraska, @ ATM, Tech, and @ Oklahoma St. They did have a week off in that stretch.
USC – 5 road games – Oregon St, Wash St, Arizona, Stanford, and UCLA – 4 home games – Cal, Washington, Oregon, and Arizona St. The combined record of their in-conference opponents is 44-58; not very good. Their toughest stretch of games was probably a combination of OOC and IC games which included @ Virginia, Ohio St., @ Oregon St, and Oregon. A pretty tough stretch, but nearly as difficult as Tech’s or Texas’.
Florida – 3 road games – Tennessee, Arkansas, and Vandy – 4 home games – Ole Miss, LSU, Kentucky, and South Carolina – 1 neutral game – Georgia. Their west division opponents had a combined record of 20-16 and finished 2, 3 and 5 in the division. Their overall conference opponents record was a combined 53-43; a pretty good mark. I think their toughest stretch of games was LSU, Kentucky, vs Georgia, and at Vandy. Kind of tough but nothing like Tech or Texas.
Alabama – 4 road games – LSU, Tennessee, Georgia, Arkansas – 4 games – Auburn, Miss St., Ole Miss, and Kentucky. Their east division opponents had a combined record of 20-16 and finished 2, 5, and 6 in the division. Their overall conference opponents record was a combined 49-47; not bad. Their toughest stretch of games was @ Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and @ Tennessee. Not really a tough stretch at all and they played in a weak division. They finish ahead of USC but barely.
Variable #3 Rankings:
Texas
Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Florida
Alabama
USC
Penn St.
Variable #4 – Close games, Blowouts, and everything in between
Texas – had 9 blowouts coming against only one ranked opponent as part of those 9 blowouts. Their 3 close games came against three ranked opponents. Nothing really in between with the 12 games they played. Their blowouts, however, are not as impressive as some of the other 1 loss teams blowouts, but 9 blowouts vs 3 close games is pretty damn good.
Penn St. – they had 8 blowouts, 2 close games, and 2 solid victories. The solid victories weren’t blowouts, but Penn St. was in control the entire game. Those wins came against Illinois and Purdue. The only had no blowouts against a ranked opponent.
Texas Tech – They had 6 blowouts, one on a ranked opponent, 3 close games, only one of them coming against a ranked opponent, 2 solid victories, and 1 blowout loss. The blowout loss hurts them really bad.
Oklahoma – They had 9 blowout victories, of which 3 of them were against ranked opponents, 1 close game which was against Texas, and 2 solid victories over Kansas and Oklahoma St. Their blowouts were the best of any one loss team. They were very impressive in their wins for the most part.
USC – They had 7 blowouts, of which 2 of them were against ranked opponents, 2 close games against unranked opponents, and 2 solid victories. Nothing really special here, but their blowouts were really impressive.
Florida – They had 10 blowouts, of which 4 of them were against ranked opponents, 1 close game against Ole Miss, and 1 solid victory over Miami. They absolutely responded after the Ole Miss loss.
Alabama – They had 8 blowouts, of which two of them were against ranked opponents at the time, 3 close games against one ranked opponent at the time, and they had one solid victory against hapless Tulane. Overall, not a bad resume with margin of victories, but they had some close games at home against mediocre opponents that could have gone either way.
Variable #4 Rankings:
Florida
Oklahoma
Texas
USC
Alabama
Penn St.
Texas Tech
Variable #5 – “What have you done for me lately”
Texas – After the Tech loss, they have played well down the stretch, but haven’t been as impressive as Florida or OU. They’ve been solid, but the loss against Tech and the close game against Oklahoma St is not nearly as good as the wins Florida, USC, and OU have been putting up lately.
Penn St. – The Iowa loss late in the season hurts, but they responded with a huge win over Michigan St., but it’s not enough because of the loss.
Texas Tech – They looked good against Texas and Oklahoma St, but they absolutely just flopped against OU and looked really bad against Baylor. They have been terrible down the stretch IMO.
Oklahoma – A solid win against Oklahoma St. last night, an absolute beatdown on Tech, and some blowouts of ATM and Nebraska before that look really good. They are the best team right now IMO.
USC – They’ve looked impressive lately but not as impressive as Florida or OU. The defense is stout, but the offense is kind of bland sometimes. They struggled a bit against Cal, but still put the clamps on them defensively. They’ve looked really strong lately.
Florida – They just absolutely responded after the Ole Miss game with blowouts of Georgia, South Carolina, Florida St., and LSU. They look unbeatable right now. They are a 1A to OU’s 1 as far as the best team goes right now.
Alabama – if they lose to Florida then they go all the way to the back of the bus because they lost. Simple as that.
Variable #5 Rankings:
Oklahoma
Florida
USC
Texas
Penn St.
Texas Tech
Alabama
These are the five variables I use when measuring who the best one loss team is in the country. After tallying up the totals, this is the order I get in best-to-worse one loss teams.
Oklahoma
Texas
Florida
USC
Penn St
Alabama
Texas Tech
Oklahoma barely edges Texas on the rankings with Florida just behind Texas. By looking at this objectively, if Florida wins big over ‘Bama, then they should play OU for the MNC. That is if OU impresses against Mizzou. If Florida barely beats ‘Bama, then I think you have to give Texas and OU the nod for the MNC. That won’t happen though. If Florida wins the SEC Championship, then they get an auto-bid to the MNC with OU. No doubt about it.
Variable #1 - The one loss
Texas - some could argue Texas should have lost by 20 and some could argue that if Texas played the first half like they did the second half, they would have won by 20. Bottom line: They lost on the last play of the game in a hostile environment at night on primetime television to the then #7 team in the country. That is an impressive loss.
Penn St. - Almost the same as Texas, but the opponent wasn't nearly as strong. They had the game won, but just couldn't get any offense going in the 4th quarter. Iowa played their asses off and pulled out a great victory with a last second field goal. Impressive loss for PSU but not as impressive as Texas' defeat.
Texas Tech - they lost by 51 on the road at night in a hostile environment to the then #4 team in the country. They are obviously dead last with regard to this variable. Well, maybe not. I will get back to that later.
Oklahoma - they played well enough to beat Texas, but managed to lose by 10 instead of holding Texas on a crucial defensive stand near the end of the game. Very un-Sooner like. It was on a neutral site during the day on primetime television to the then #5 team in the nation. It's not impressive and its not horrible. It's just okay.
USC - they lost to an unranked opponent on the road on a Friday night to a then unranked Oregon St. However, Oregon St, turned out to be a decent team this season, but not nearly as good as Tech, OU, or Texas. How they lost is a different story. They were down 21-0 at the half and kind of crawled back in the game, but never really was close to sniffing victory. Oregon St. won outright 27-21. It's a so-so loss.
Florida - they lost at home to a then unranked opponent in Ole Miss. If you look at it from that standpoint it’s a horrible loss; however, Ole Miss is a good football team and didn't win convincingly. There was a blocked PAT and a stuffed 4th and 1 play with less than a minute to go that allowed Ole Miss to escape with a victory in the Swamp. It's not an impressive loss but a tough one. It's still a loss at home which is unacceptable if you're the best team in the nation. It's almost as bad as Tech's loss.
Alabama – we really don’t know how this is going to play out, but I suspect a solid win by Florida. Not a blowout, but a 10-14 point loss for the ‘Tide. This is a neutral site loss to one of the better teams in the country, but ‘Bama never had control of the game and Florida is obviously the more dominant team.
Rankings of Variable #1:
Texas
Penn St.
Oklahoma
Alabama
USC
Florida
Texas Tech
Variable #2 - Non-conference schedule
Texas – Florida Atlantic at Home (52-10), UTEP on the road (42-13), RICE at home (52-10), and Arkansas at home (52-10). They are all division 1A opponents, but only one of them is from a power conference. FAU finished the season 6-6, UTEP 5-7, RICE 9-3, and Arkansas 5-7. RICE is probably their most impressive OOC win. It’s not a horrible non-conference schedule, but it’s not impressive either.
Penn St. – Coastal Carolina at Home (66-10), Oregon State at Home (45-14), Syracuse on the road (55-13), and Temple at Home (45-3). Coastal Carolina kills their OOC schedule. If they had top ten team on their OOC schedule, then it might make up for it, but a division I-AA opponent who finished 6-6 on the year is really bad. They won all of their games, but it wasn’t against any great teams. The 45-14 beatdown on Oregon State is pretty deece, but not enough.
Texas Tech – Eastern Washington at Home (49-24), @ Nevada (35-19), SMU (43-7), and UMass (43-7). Probably the bottom of the barrel here. Two I-AA opponents and only one winning team in Nevada (7-5) that they beat on the road…..terrible OOC schedule.
Oklahoma – Chatanooga (52-7), Cincy (52-26), @ Washington (55-14), TCU (35-10). This is a balanced OOC schedule with impressive wins over now ranked Cincy (10-2) and TCU (10-2). The only problem is, the other two opponents combine for a 1-22 mark. And one of those opponents is division I-AA. That draws down the impressive OOC wins a little. Still, it’s a good OOC schedule.
USC - @ Virginia (52-7), Ohio St. (35-3), and Notre Dame (38-3). A very good OOC schedule all against solid opponents and a top ten team. The best OOC schedule in football IMO.
Florida – Hawaii (56-10), Miami, FL (26-3), Citadel (70-19), @ Florida St. (45-15). The Citadel hurts them bad, but the impressive wins over Miami and Florida St. makes up for it. It’s a decent OOC schedule, but no the best.
Alabama – neutral site against Clemson (34-10), Western Kentucky (41-7), Tulane (20-6), and Arkansas St. (35-0). Clemson was their best opponent at 7-5. They played all 1-A opponents, but Tulane and W Kentucky combined for 3 wins total. Arkansas State plays in the weakest IA conference in all of college football. Overall, it is a weak OOC schedule. Not as weak as Tech but weaker than Penn St.
Variable #2 Rankings:
USC
Florida
Oklahoma
Texas
Penn St.
Alabama
Texas Tech
Variable #3 – In conference schedule. I think this should be measured on two fronts, (1) the opponents and (2) the stretch of games.
Texas – 3 road games – Kansas, Texas Tech, and Colorado – 4 home games – Baylor, Texas ATM, Missouri, and Oklahoma St. – 1 neutral game – Oklahoma. Texas’ north opponents finished 1, 3, and 4 in their division with a combined overall record of 21-15. Their southern division opponents had a combined overall record of 39-21 bringing their overall conference opponent tally to 60-36; a very strong in-conference schedule. They also played a stretch of games against the then #1, #11, #6, and #7 teams in the nation. Toughest stretch in football.
Penn St. – 4 Road games – Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio St, and Iowa – 4 home games Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Michigan St. Combined record of their in-conference opponents is 40-53. Their toughest stretch of games was probably Ohio St, Iowa, Indiana, and Michigan St. This is not good.
Texas Tech – 4 Road games – Kansas State, Texas ATM, Kansas, and Oklahoma – 4 home games – Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma St, and Baylor. Their north division opponents finished 2, 3, and 5 with a combined record of 20-16. Their overall conference opponents had a combined record of 59-37; a very impressive in-conference schedule. Their toughest in-conference stretch of games was against then ranked #23, #1, #9, and #5 teams in the nation. Pretty freaking strong, but unlike Texas they had a week off in the middle of that stretch. Very tough stretch of games, but not quite a difficult as Texas’.
Oklahoma – 4 road games – Kansas St., Baylor, Texas ATM, and Oklahoma St. – 3 home games – Kansas, Texas Tech, and Nebraska – 1 neutral game – Texas. Oklahoma’s north opponents finished 2, 3, and 5 in their division with a combined record of 21-15. Their overall conference opponent record was a combined 59-37; really good. Their toughest stretch of games was against Nebraska, @ ATM, Tech, and @ Oklahoma St. They did have a week off in that stretch.
USC – 5 road games – Oregon St, Wash St, Arizona, Stanford, and UCLA – 4 home games – Cal, Washington, Oregon, and Arizona St. The combined record of their in-conference opponents is 44-58; not very good. Their toughest stretch of games was probably a combination of OOC and IC games which included @ Virginia, Ohio St., @ Oregon St, and Oregon. A pretty tough stretch, but nearly as difficult as Tech’s or Texas’.
Florida – 3 road games – Tennessee, Arkansas, and Vandy – 4 home games – Ole Miss, LSU, Kentucky, and South Carolina – 1 neutral game – Georgia. Their west division opponents had a combined record of 20-16 and finished 2, 3 and 5 in the division. Their overall conference opponents record was a combined 53-43; a pretty good mark. I think their toughest stretch of games was LSU, Kentucky, vs Georgia, and at Vandy. Kind of tough but nothing like Tech or Texas.
Alabama – 4 road games – LSU, Tennessee, Georgia, Arkansas – 4 games – Auburn, Miss St., Ole Miss, and Kentucky. Their east division opponents had a combined record of 20-16 and finished 2, 5, and 6 in the division. Their overall conference opponents record was a combined 49-47; not bad. Their toughest stretch of games was @ Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and @ Tennessee. Not really a tough stretch at all and they played in a weak division. They finish ahead of USC but barely.
Variable #3 Rankings:
Texas
Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Florida
Alabama
USC
Penn St.
Variable #4 – Close games, Blowouts, and everything in between
Texas – had 9 blowouts coming against only one ranked opponent as part of those 9 blowouts. Their 3 close games came against three ranked opponents. Nothing really in between with the 12 games they played. Their blowouts, however, are not as impressive as some of the other 1 loss teams blowouts, but 9 blowouts vs 3 close games is pretty damn good.
Penn St. – they had 8 blowouts, 2 close games, and 2 solid victories. The solid victories weren’t blowouts, but Penn St. was in control the entire game. Those wins came against Illinois and Purdue. The only had no blowouts against a ranked opponent.
Texas Tech – They had 6 blowouts, one on a ranked opponent, 3 close games, only one of them coming against a ranked opponent, 2 solid victories, and 1 blowout loss. The blowout loss hurts them really bad.
Oklahoma – They had 9 blowout victories, of which 3 of them were against ranked opponents, 1 close game which was against Texas, and 2 solid victories over Kansas and Oklahoma St. Their blowouts were the best of any one loss team. They were very impressive in their wins for the most part.
USC – They had 7 blowouts, of which 2 of them were against ranked opponents, 2 close games against unranked opponents, and 2 solid victories. Nothing really special here, but their blowouts were really impressive.
Florida – They had 10 blowouts, of which 4 of them were against ranked opponents, 1 close game against Ole Miss, and 1 solid victory over Miami. They absolutely responded after the Ole Miss loss.
Alabama – They had 8 blowouts, of which two of them were against ranked opponents at the time, 3 close games against one ranked opponent at the time, and they had one solid victory against hapless Tulane. Overall, not a bad resume with margin of victories, but they had some close games at home against mediocre opponents that could have gone either way.
Variable #4 Rankings:
Florida
Oklahoma
Texas
USC
Alabama
Penn St.
Texas Tech
Variable #5 – “What have you done for me lately”
Texas – After the Tech loss, they have played well down the stretch, but haven’t been as impressive as Florida or OU. They’ve been solid, but the loss against Tech and the close game against Oklahoma St is not nearly as good as the wins Florida, USC, and OU have been putting up lately.
Penn St. – The Iowa loss late in the season hurts, but they responded with a huge win over Michigan St., but it’s not enough because of the loss.
Texas Tech – They looked good against Texas and Oklahoma St, but they absolutely just flopped against OU and looked really bad against Baylor. They have been terrible down the stretch IMO.
Oklahoma – A solid win against Oklahoma St. last night, an absolute beatdown on Tech, and some blowouts of ATM and Nebraska before that look really good. They are the best team right now IMO.
USC – They’ve looked impressive lately but not as impressive as Florida or OU. The defense is stout, but the offense is kind of bland sometimes. They struggled a bit against Cal, but still put the clamps on them defensively. They’ve looked really strong lately.
Florida – They just absolutely responded after the Ole Miss game with blowouts of Georgia, South Carolina, Florida St., and LSU. They look unbeatable right now. They are a 1A to OU’s 1 as far as the best team goes right now.
Alabama – if they lose to Florida then they go all the way to the back of the bus because they lost. Simple as that.
Variable #5 Rankings:
Oklahoma
Florida
USC
Texas
Penn St.
Texas Tech
Alabama
These are the five variables I use when measuring who the best one loss team is in the country. After tallying up the totals, this is the order I get in best-to-worse one loss teams.
Oklahoma
Texas
Florida
USC
Penn St
Alabama
Texas Tech
Oklahoma barely edges Texas on the rankings with Florida just behind Texas. By looking at this objectively, if Florida wins big over ‘Bama, then they should play OU for the MNC. That is if OU impresses against Mizzou. If Florida barely beats ‘Bama, then I think you have to give Texas and OU the nod for the MNC. That won’t happen though. If Florida wins the SEC Championship, then they get an auto-bid to the MNC with OU. No doubt about it.