If anyone is interested -

[KC Scott]

I pulled out of all stocks today -

Took a hit on the SSO (SP 500 2x ETF) but made it back plus some on QLD (Nasdaq 100 2x ETF)

All in all about 4% - looking back I started buying way too early July, then Sept and the last 1/3 in Dec. - When the real low hit in March I didn't even want to look anymore - so I didn't. Since then the markets made a nice comeback, but I think this run is over for a while.

I'm not going short, till I see some solid sell signals - but I didn't want to risk what it's taken 7 months to get back to.

This is an advanced chart using yearly and monthly Gann cycles which are beyond my scope of explanation:



It's not 100% - nothing is, but he thinks the top is in or very close to it and I agree.

This is a little simpler chart to understand - the SP broke it's blue trendline (Which started off the March lows) in late Sept. and has crawled it's way back on declining volume over the last 7 trading sessions:



Based on a measured move - I'd say a pullback to around 900-950 range and then flattening out would be the healthy - but it's hard to tell since earnings season has just started and we don't know the results or how the street will interpret those results.

If I'm wrong it will mean blowing through that 1078 topline with some volume and that would be a signal to buy back in

[Mikey]

It all makes perfect sense to me...

[KC Scott]

Well it shouldn't - we busted right thru to a new high for the year today, on decent volume

I'll scale back in some smaller buys - QLD Nasdaq 2x ETF is what I'm buying first

[War Wagon]

I pulled out of all stocks today.

On October 14th, the stock market gets back over the 10,000 point theshhold for the first time since 2008.

Great timing, brah.

Please keep me updated on market conditions and forecasts and especially what you intend to do with your investments...

so I can do the exact opposite!

[poptart]

The markets are going down significantly, soon.

Not a 5-7% "pullback."

It'll be a 40-50% drop.


jmo

[KC Scott]

Well I'm buying again Wags - so you should probably sell then :doh:

Tart, I think it will too, after the reun we've had.
But the thing about trading rules is when you break them, more time than not you'll either leave money on the table or worse you get burned to a cinder riding shit all the way down.

In this case, I said Monday if we broke thru a new high with volume it confirms more new highs are coming and thats what it did.
So Buy I must or I'll be violating one of the rules.

Big picture will it fall? Sure, but neither you or I or all the really smart dudes on my brokers board, So you just ride the trend.

One thing I've noticed a real correlation to is the falling dollar. As long as the dollar is cheap against the other world currencies, Stocks are going to keep going up - our goods and services are cheaper abroad which = Gains for US companies

[poptart]

To state the obvious, yeah, nobody knows for sure what the markets will do.

For me, taking money off the table and missing out on potential gains is a better option than getting hung up again in the big drop ... which I believe is coming.

When we hit the low -- Dow at about 6,500, I thought we would see it rise up to around 10,200 and then fall right back down again.

Now the Dow has gone over 10,000.


*tick* *tick* *tick* ...

[KC Scott]

As you know I'm not a big Dow follower - but the current target is Dow 11,200 - also, collapse doesn't typically happen in a day - Please note I said typically.

The business rule is if the Major indices (SP 500 / Naz) drop over 2% on volume avg. or higher that's the time to cash in

[KC Scott]

Chart Showing Projected SP500 Top around 1260 late November then taking it down to around the 675 Mark by next May:



That would correlate taking it up around $41.60 then down to around 17 on SSO



Still a little upside left in this rally (aaprox 16% SSO - 8% on SP500) - But a lot of downside risk if not out quickly on that Top projection

[KC Scott]

Well as of today we had 11 Distribution days this month and it was enough to have Investors Business Daily call a Market correction.

I didn't follow my own rules and buy back in - as I was just waiting for a confirmation up day that didn't come.
Guess that's a good thing now.

But Likewise i won't go short here beacuse this pattern just doesn't look right - It's almost like they're trying to bait the bears into going short, then Fucking Bernake will announce they turned the printing presses back on are giving out another Bazillion dollars to avert disaster.

This isn't an investors market anymore BTW - it is just pure gambling now:

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.p ... 12572&st=0

[War Wagon]

Bwa... Dow up 200 points today on the 80th anniversary of the Great Crash.

You're really not very good at this, Scott.

Well, actually... you're a good barometer, better than the Farmers Almanac for dependably being wrong.

If you say sell, it's time to buy.

[KC Scott]

Dave - you have to look at shit beyond the day it was posted.

I'm not telling you what I think will happen today, but where I think the trend is going.
Nothing is set in stone - things will change and it's all based on what the market does.

Does that make sense to you?

Take a look at what happened since I made that post - It's down 192 pts. Right now at Noon Friday.
So if you bought yesterday when it was up 200 your down almost that same amount now.
Conversely, if you sold or sold short you locked in profits and are ahead.

Yesterdays bump was a reaction to the non-stop selling of the past month -
And I'd say most of it was short covering or reaction to the GDP number - that's it.

The trend is definetly down for the short term - however long that will be - the market will let us know

[War Wagon]

Whatever.

I've noticed your penchant for calling those you know by their real name rather than their board nic.

Familiarity breeds contempt.

[KC Scott]

You may have also noticed I'm not that much into smacking anymore.

I don't mind ripping public figures or events - but I'm pretty much willing to give everybody on the boards a pass, unless they go clossal stupid.

[KC Scott]

Nice chart - This one showing a better version of the Channel and retracements of the SSO / SPX

[poptart]

"Official" unemployment just came in at 10.2%

The markets should DROP today - call me Marcus.

I suspect we've hit the top of this bear market rally and won't go too much more above where we are right now, if at all.

I'm much more inclined to think that this is the beginning of the BIG drop that I'm expecting.


Hold your hat, 'cuz I think we're in for a very rough ride for a while.

[Mikey]

The markets should DROP today - call me Marcus.

Sorry "Marcus". You just took another one up the ass.
I guess you're getting more and more used to this. Do your farts even make noise any more?

[poptart]

lol

I did miss that call on the market dropping today, but it's not really a big deal, Mikey.

The BIG DEAL is my fundamental prediction that we're just about at the top of the bear market rally and we'll soon see a significant plunge in the markets.

Time will tell if that prediction is accurate or not.

[Mikey]

One thing I know for sure.

The markets won't drop a point tomorrow.

Call me Marcus...

:wink:

[KC Scott]

"Official" unemployment just came in at 10.2%

The markets should DROP today - call me Marcus.

I suspect we've hit the top of this bear market rally and won't go too much more above where we are right now, if at all.

I'm much more inclined to think that this is the beginning of the BIG drop that I'm expecting.

Hold your hat, 'cuz I think we're in for a very rough ride for a while.

Some are looking at the '83 recession and trying to draw a parallel - at the height of unemployment the Stock market was way up and prices were way down. What they miss is that in the 80's we were a manufacturing based nation. That's not the case anymore.

To correct Tart - this was not a "Bear Market" rally by definition. Since the March bottom, the market was in full Bull rally - on the daily weekly and monthly basis. My particular opinion now is that rally is at a top and we're about to have Trend change - it's also coming to the end of a 9 month cycle - So Decemeber may produce on more small spurt, but I think it's down hard starting mid Dec at latest.

As always - my opinions are subject to change based on actual market results

[poptart]

You may be right about the "by definition" statement, Scott.

My rational for calling this a bear rally is because I expect that when the market FALLS again, we stand a very good chance of hitting lows which are LOWER than what we hit in March, meaning that we never really hit our true bottom at that time.

Semantics, in a way.

But of course I may be wrong about that and we'll not hit lower than those lows and will, in fact, go HIGHER than the highs we hit prior to the big drop we already experienced.

But I doubt that.

I think we're going down very hard, soon.

[KC Scott]

Several of the scenarios I've seen drawn out show hitting the November 08 lows (around May 2010) then going up from there. In terms of bullish scenario it's what is referered to as a inverse head and shoulders pattern and is one of the most bullish buy signs there is

[Mikey]

Sounds like the market has a dandruff problem.

If the head and shoulders doesn't work I would suggest switching to T-Gel.

[Trampis]

Another new high for the Dow 10207. I think we'll top out at around 10500 before significant correction occurs. Draw your trendlines across the highs in 07 08 and project out.http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU& ... 9212537443

Also, 10% unemployment doesnt buy much $80 oil, look for a drop back into the 60's by Christmas if not sooner.

[KC Scott]

Yep - IBD called tonight Market in uptrend with today as the follow thru day.

Should get a little self off tomorrow for those inclined to go long again -

[poptart]

Scott called the last market "crash," Wagon.

He was a few months early with it, but he did call it -- when such scenarios were not part of the majority opinion.


As for my own opinions, just wait a few months and we'll see where we're at.

[KC Scott]

Wags - seriously - this isn't a smack fourm.

Don't like the opinions - feel free not to read them or learn anything about what we're talking about.

But I'm not letting anyone toss shit at anyone who contributes to this fourm - me included

Any more posts like the previous one and this fourm will disappear - for you.

[poptart]

It might be a rocky week comin' up.

Big banks reporting this week and I suspect some shit is gonna begin to hit the fan.


Buckle up.

[Mikey]

Your record on calling these things is about comparable to YAFJ calling NFL games.

I just wish I had some extra cash to drop into the market today.

[KC Scott]

Yep - IBD called tonight Market in uptrend with today as the follow thru day.

Should get a little self off tomorrow for those inclined to go long again -

There hasn't been ANY signal at all to sell since IBD call this uptrend back in force - any down / profit taking days are being bought.

ANY Opinions are all secondary to what the market is actually doing

[poptart]

It's not Friday yet, Mikey.


I said this --

When we hit the low -- Dow at about 6,500, I thought we would see it rise up to around 10,200 and then fall right back down again.

It's now just above 10,700.

If it keeps chuggin' upward, yep, I missed this call.

If it takes the plunge that I suspect, then I've made a pretty good call.

Wait a bit and we'll see.


But the larger prediction I have made is that the economy (and the markets with it) is going to tank badly early this year.

Wait and see about that, too.


Btw, what predictions do you have?

Don't tell me you're one of the panty-waists that tries to take shots at other folks who have the guts to make predictions, while having no balls himself to put anything on the line at all.

Meow.

[Mikey]

You think it takes some kind of "guts" to make predictions? Not sure where you came up with that assumption.

Why make some dumbshit long term prediction? I follow things day to day and deal with it.

I've already said over and over that you're full of shit, long term and short term. I guess that's not a prediction, though. It's a fact.

[KC Scott]

IBDinvestors Today's sell-off has changed the Market Pulse from Uptrend to "Uptrend under pressure" - that's not a sell call - just a note that we MAY be seeing the begining of a trend change

[poptart]

It might be a rocky week comin' up.

Big banks reporting this week and I suspect some shit is gonna begin to hit the fan.


Buckle up.

There it is, Mikey.

It's been 10 months since the markets have had a week as bad as this one.

Barry's bank proposals spooked the banks and investors.

And there were other circumstances contributing.


This is a mere tremor compared to what's coming, however.

[Diogenes]

It might be a rocky week comin' up.

Big banks reporting this week and I suspect some shit is gonna begin to hit the fan.


Buckle up.

There it is, Mikey.

It's been 10 months since the markets have had a week as bad as this one.



And there were other circumstances contributing.

It was all Scott Brown's fault.



You know someone's going to try it out.