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Pick 'em question...
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2009 1:00 pm
by SunCoastSooner
I tried to PM this to someone involved but it wouldn't go through so screw it...
I would never be critical of the CFB pick 'em because you guys do an amazing job of running each season and it's always a fun competition but... I was curious why in the pick 'em why Zona is favored over Cal in the spread sheet by a 1.5 when in almost every line I have seen otherwise outside of T1B it has been Cal favored between 1 and 2 points?
Just an honest question out of curiosity that I didn't see the point of making a thread about (but had no choice since I couldn't PM).
Re: Pick 'em question...
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2009 2:18 pm
by SunCoastSooner
88 wrote:SunCoastSooner wrote:I tried to PM this to someone involved but it wouldn't go through so screw it...
I would never be critical of the CFB pick 'em because you guys do an amazing job of running each season and it's always a fun competition but... I was curious why in the pick 'em why Zona is favored over Cal in the spread sheet by a 1.5 when in almost every line I have seen otherwise outside of T1B it has been Cal favored between 1 and 2 points?
Just an honest question out of curiosity that I didn't see the point of making a thread about (but had no choice since I couldn't PM).
Short answer: I set the lines on Monday nights very arbitrarily.
Long answer: Lefty sends me a PM on Sunday or Monday identifying the game that everyone must pick (Game 1). I use L45B's magical spreadsheet to make certain that all of the games being played on Saturday that week appear on the list of games (I usually have to delete some Thursday, Friday and Sunday games). Then, I go to any old lines/odds web site I can find and put in lines, very quickly, that are within a half point or two of the line as it is currently being shown on Monday. I always set the line at a half point, so that we cannot have ties. Once in a while, there is a big divergence between the opening line, the current line, and the lines of different casinos. I check USAToday most often. When that happens, I just pick something out of the air that seems in the middle. Other times, there is no line whatsoever. In that case, I either use Sagarin's "Predictor" method to set a line, or just pick something that looks reasonable. But I really don't worry about it too much. The same lines are available for everyone to use, so if I fuck up and set a dumb line, everyone has the same chance to use it.
Understandable... like I said I wasn't trying to be critical; it just caught my attention and it peaked my curiosity.
Re: Pick 'em question...
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2009 2:50 pm
by Terry in Crapchester
Earlier in the year, I noticed the line in the Baylor-UConn game set at UConn + 10.5. I jumped on UConn.
Coupla days later, I opened up my fishwrap, and lo and behold, the line was actually reversed. Now, I am aware that lines do change over the course of the week, but a 21-point swing is, to my knowledge, pretty much unheard of.
I was gonna say something, but when I looked through the Pick'Em thread for that week, I noticed that most folks who picked that game had taken Baylor and given the points, anyway. So I just kept my mouth shut.
As it turned out, UConn won by 8, so I guess I got a freebie win for the season. But I'm surprised that no one else saw it.
Re: Pick 'em question...
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2009 2:54 pm
by SunCoastSooner
88 wrote:SunCoastSooner wrote:Understandable... like I said I wasn't trying to be critical; it just caught my attention and it peaked my curiosity.
I got your critical right here, bub:
http://languageandgrammar.com/2008/07/2 ... or-piqued/
Just fucking witcha, dog. It was a good question.
Haha; sad part is I know that. I'm a little drugged up right now... okay a lot drugged up on pain meds and shit. I was in the hospital for ten days until Wednesday and haven't worked in over 2 weeks now. Had a minor surgery set up for last Monday on my back to repair some of the muscle damage from when I was ill (trying to prevent having to get a cement block in my back someday :( ) and when the anesthesiologist went to start numbing my back with his huge ass needle my dumb ass coughed and jerked causing him to puncture my lung which proceeded to collapse... suffice it to say I didn't have the surgery but got to spend over a week in a hospital bed with tubes helping me breath for part of it and hooked up to IVs. It was too terrible all and all since a friend went and grabbed my lap top for me and the hospital had some pretty decent wifi. Going to try again in January or February to have the surgery.
Re: Pick 'em question...
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2009 11:07 pm
by Cornhusker
I know SCS asked his question will nothing but full and unconditional respect...but f%*k that!
Heres what I wanna know 88....
Why in the hell are you reading all my picks wrong from my posts?
I mean noooobody can be this bad...
Watch it a little closer buster!
Thanks.
Good luck SCS with that lil' set back.
Re: Pick 'em question...
Posted: Sat Nov 14, 2009 1:02 am
by SunCoastSooner
Thanks for the well wishes guys. Gotta say looking back on the last few years that beating cancer was actually the easy part; all the medical bullshit from the surgeries and muscle damage in my back has been the more difficult to deal with on a day to day basis. I feel like I have the back of fifty year old and am just on the brink of turning thirty. Happy to say that in the last year I have gotten back to a normal weight rather than looking like I am fresh out of a Concentration Camp with no meat on my bones but the steroids they give me cause me to retain water like a motha fucka and makes my face look fat as shit even though I'm only 185 pounds and six foot tall.