Left Seater wrote:Terry in Crapchester wrote:
As I understand it, that wouldn't happen until 2013, at the earliest.
From strictly a football standpoint, TCU is likely a bigger loss for the Big East than either Pitt or Syracuse was. Pitt and Syracuse have combined for only two BCS bids in the history of the BCS, and neither school has ever ranked higher than #15 in the final regular-season BCS rankings. Then again, TCU might not have left had Pitt and Syracuse not left first.
You are correct in that it would be 2013 if Pitt and Syracuse stay for the full 27 month exit period. However, there has been talk among some Big East members about letting them leave early. Take their money and let them walk, why have two team around that don't want to be around?
From what I've heard, Marinotti wants to hold both Pitt and Syracuse to the full 27-month commitment. That would mean that they can't leave before December 2013, which in reality translates to July 2014. Not saying that couldn't change, though.
Seems this group is being led by PVD who would like to see the basketball end of the conf take back control.
If the Big East were to drop football (as you alluded to elsewhere), two possibilities exist, but both would be problematic from a practical standpoint.
First, the non-football schools could split from the football schools. The idea of a so-called "Catholic Conference" is nothing new; in fact, it was first floated as one possibility as far back as 2003, albeit under different circumstances until recently. Most likely, the non-football schools would poach a few additional schools from the A-10 -- I would guess the most likely possibilities, based on geography and on the Catholic affiliation of all members, would be St. Joe's, Dayton, Xavier and Saint Louis. For mens' baskeball, this would be a pretty solid conference, better in fact than any other conference not tied in with an automatic BCS bid in football. The problem is, it's not a very good conference for olympic sports, and for that reason, both ND and Georgetown have gone on the record as being opposed to such a conference. I suspect that if this is the route taken, both ND and Georgetown would look for other options first. Either one could potentially sink this conference by refusing to join. Both of them refusing to join almost certainly would sink the conference.
The second option is a bit more off the wall, but I suppose possible. The Big XII could absorb the remaining Big East football members under its banner, but for football only. That approach would have a few advantages and a few disadvantages.
Advantages:
- Assuming the Big East were to drop football (I don't think they''d have an alternative in this scenario), I see nothing in the NCAA rules that would prohibit such an arrangement.
- ND and Georgetown probably are both more likely to remain part of a Big East under this format, since the Big East would continue to include UConn, Cincinnati, Louisville and West Virginia for basketball, and better olympic sports.
- This format would allow the Big East football members to keep homes for all of their olympic sports. For example, each of the Big East schools in question fields a mens' soccer team (Louisville is a national power, in fact) and Rutgers fields a mens' lacrosse team. The Big XII doesn't offer those sports.
- The Big XII would become the nation's first 16-team conference, at least in football, and that might strengthen its long-term survival odds. By contrast, if the Big XII were to pluck, say, Cincinnati and Louisville from the Big East, I think they might actually endanger their long-term survival odds, since that would only increase their numbers to 12, and likely would hasten the demise of the Big East, at least as a football conference, in the process.
Disadvantages:
- I'm not sure the Big East would want to keep Rutgers and USF under this arrangement, at least not for basketball.
- It would require the Big XII to use some level of creativity as to divisional arrangements and scheduling. Likely Missouri and Kansas would be placed in different divisions. Imho the Big XII made a mistake by not making Nebraska-Oklahoma an annual contest, and I think they would have to do that for Missouri-Kansas in order to hold the conference together.
- This would require an unprecedented level of cooperation between two conferences. I'm not sure the Big East and Big XII could pull this off.
- This would force the Big XII into a hybrid status, which is uncharted territory for them.
If Pitt and Syracuse can get out early, the Big East must be ready to add two teams the day before they leave because if at any time the conf only has 6 football members then the auto bid goes away instantly.
Does that include the off-season as well? I thought that as long as they had eight teams in every season, they'd continue to retain Division 1-A status. Losing that, of course, is worse than merely dropping the BCS automatic bid, as all bowl tie-ins would go away.
As long as they can retain a minimum of eight members, I don't think it much matters when Pitt and Syracuse leave. As I understand it, the current BCS contract runs through the 2013 season, and as long as the Big East retains 1-A status as a football conference, it will have an automatic BCS bid at least through the end of that season.
