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If Allmychildrenaredead tries to close the Strait of Hormuz

Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 12:42 am
by Mikey
Should the US go ahead and fuck with Iran?

Do you think Iran would actually do this or is it just normal bluster?
U.S. Navy won't tolerate 'disruption' through Strait of Hormuz

CNN) -- The U.S. Navy said Iran's threat to block the strategically and economically important Strait of Hormuz is unacceptable.

"The free flow of goods and services through the Strait of Hormuz is vital to regional and global prosperity," Navy 5th Fleet in Bahrain spokeswoman Cmdr. Amy Derrick Frost told reporters on Wednesday.

"Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations; any disruption will not be tolerated."

The 34-mile-wide shipping channel leads in and out of the Persian Gulf between Iran and Oman. It is strategically important because tankers carrying oil travel through it.

Iran's vice president has warned that the country could block the strait if sanctions are imposed on its exports of crude oil. France, Britain and Germany have proposed sanctions to punish Iran's lack of cooperation on its nuclear program.

Physically closing the strait would require means that likely are not available to Iran, said Professor Jean-Paul Rodrigue of Hofstra University.

"At best, Iran can posture and potentially disrupt traffic for a short duration," said Rodrigue, who specializes in global trade and maritime transportation issues.

The 5th Fleet is based in Bahrain, and Frost noted that the Navy "maintains a robust presence in the region to deter or counter destabilizing activities."

"We conduct maritime security operations under international maritime conventions to ensure security and safety in international waters for all commercial shipping to operate freely while transiting the region," she said.

Asked whether the fleet would be able to keep the strait open if Iran moved to close it, she said, "The U.S. Navy is a flexible, multi-capable force committed to regional security and stability, always ready to counter malevolent actions to ensure freedom of navigation."

Frost was also asked whether keeping the strait open is part of the fleet's mandate.

She said it is "committed to protecting maritime freedoms that are the basis for global prosperity. This is one of the main reasons our military forces operate in the region.

"The U.S. Navy, along with our coalition and regional partners, operates under international maritime conventions to maintain a constant state of high vigilance in order to ensure the continued, safe flow of maritime traffic in waterways critical to global commerce."

The French Foreign Ministry stressed that the waterway is an international strait.

"In consequence, all ships, whatever their flag, enjoy the right of passage in transit, in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, adopted in 1982, and with the customary international maritime law," the ministry said.

Iran is holding a 10-day military exercise in an area from the eastern part of the strait out into the Arabian Sea. Western diplomats describe the maneuvers as further evidence of Iran's volatile behavior.

Rodrigue told CNN that any move by Iran to close the strait would be "suicidal" to the current regime.

In 2009, 15 million barrels passed through the strait every day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

"Keep in mind that countries such as China and Japan are more dependent on Persian Gulf oil than the United States," the professor said.

About 18% of U.S. net petroleum imports come from the Persian Gulf region, while Canada provides 25%, according to Rodrigue.

The scholar, who has written extensively about oil "chokepoints," said there are no other means to move large quantities of oil over long distance than by maritime transportation.

Hormuz marks the boundary between Iran and the United Arab Emirates.

"It is thus an international issue where the United States, for strategic and historical reasons, is spearheading its security," Rodrigue said.

Re: If Allmychildrenaredead tries to close the Strait of Hor

Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 12:44 am
by Shlomart Ben Yisrael
I think somebody should close the Straits Of Your Internet Connection.

Allah Akbar.

Re: If Allmychildrenaredead tries to close the Strait of Hor

Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 12:53 am
by smackaholic
It's bluster.

I'madinnerjacket doesn't want to give us a reason to fukk with him.

Re: If Allmychildrenaredead tries to close the Strait of Hor

Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 1:02 am
by Mikey
Martyred wrote:I think somebody should close the Straits Of Your Internet Connection.

Allah Akbar.
May you find 70 virgins awaiting you in Paradise. With sharp scimitars. Tomorrow.

Re: If Allmychildrenaredead tries to close the Strait of Hor

Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 1:09 am
by Van
Iran's vice president has warned that the country could threaten in vain to block the strait if sanctions are imposed on its exports of crude oil.
The very definition of "WGARA."

Re: If Allmychildrenaredead tries to close the Strait of Hor

Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 1:27 am
by socal
Sabre rattling
Attentionwhoreijad gabs
Inevitable

Re: If Allmychildrenaredead tries to close the Strait of Hor

Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 1:36 am
by Shlomart Ben Yisrael
Sanctions are a provocation for war.

It's what is currently known as "Phase 1" in modern grand-strategic planning.

Re: If Allmychildrenaredead tries to close the Strait of Hor

Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 1:39 am
by Shlomart Ben Yisrael
Also, if the U.S. Navy initiates any action, all I can say is...


...much like Friday nights at Kaley's, seamen will be going down.

Re: If Allmychildrenaredead tries to close the Strait of Hor

Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 1:40 am
by Dinsdale
Martyred wrote:Sanctions are a provocation for war.
Sounds like free market economics to me.


We don't like your act, so you don't get our money... where's the problem?

Re: If Allmychildrenaredead tries to close the Strait of Hor

Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 1:43 am
by Dinsdale
Martyred wrote:Also, if the U.S. Navy initiates any action, all I can say is...


...much like Friday nights at Kaley's, seamen will be going down.

Yeah, because nothing says "we're amatch for American might" like risking your existence trying to build a technologically advanced bomb that the US of A figured out 66 years ago.

But sure, the rest of their technology is every bit of ours... sure.


Sounds like a 3 hour naval battle.

Re: If Allmychildrenaredead tries to close the Strait of Hor

Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 1:48 am
by Mace
Dinsdale wrote:Sounds like a 3 hour naval battle.
You must be including coffee breaks in that time span. Afterall, they are government workers.

Re: If Allmychildrenaredead tries to close the Strait of Hor

Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 1:53 am
by Shlomart Ben Yisrael
Dinsdale wrote:...trying to build a technologically advanced bomb...
They're not.

Re: If Allmychildrenaredead tries to close the Strait of Hor

Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 1:54 am
by Shlomart Ben Yisrael
You are being Jewed into another war, you dopes.

Re: If Allmychildrenaredead tries to close the Strait of Hor

Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 2:30 am
by War Wagon
We like war, obviously, and since a vaccum was just created, time to start looking for the next one.

You don't think we spend $650 billion a year on our military to let grass grow under it's feet, do you?

No, we must invade Iran to protect the worlds oil supply, especially China's, since they are financing our military. It's a symbiotic relationship.

Not to mention, we're still pretty pissed about that whole hostage deal.

Re: If Allmychildrenaredead tries to close the Strait of Hor

Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 3:08 am
by mvscal
Mikey wrote:Should the US go ahead and fuck with Iran?

Do you think Iran would actually do this or is it just normal bluster?
They're certainly welcome to give it a try. The Fifth Fleet might have something to say about it, though. It really didn't work out very well for Iran the last time they tried it back in the 80s.

Re: If Allmychildrenaredead tries to close the Strait of Hor

Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 3:13 am
by Dr_Phibes
Physically closing the strait would require means that likely are not available to Iran, said Professor Jean-Paul Rodrigue of Hofstra University.

"At best, Iran can posture and potentially disrupt traffic for a short duration," said Rodrigue, who specializes in global trade and maritime transportation issues.
They could turn it into a shooting gallery if push came to shove. It's only 34 kilometres wide :?

Re: If Allmychildrenaredead tries to close the Strait of Hor

Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 3:24 am
by mvscal
Dr_Phibes wrote:They could turn it into a shooting gallery if push came to shove. It's only 34 kilometres wide :?
Ah...no. We could turn it into a shooting gallery and have done so before with lesser means than presently available. The US Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain and it is not going to tolerate any Iranian shenanigans in the Gulf.

Our pimp hand remains strong.

Re: If Allmychildrenaredead tries to close the Strait of Hor

Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 3:31 am
by Dr_Phibes
Strategic appreciations about this were a dime a dozen about four(?) years ago and all of them said it isn't worth it, any escalation would be an economic disaster for everyone and the outlook for shipping was grim. It isn't the eighties and they do exaggerate, but they've got some pretty sophisticated stuff if I remember rightly.

It's all posturing anyway. Sanctions are an art-form, you've got to find that perfect point where you can push and and they won't punch back. You've achieved it, now you'll back off.