T1B

Preakness Stakes 2024: Odds and analysis


What an amazing Kentucky Derby we had with the longshot Mystik Dan winning by a nose. Seer was the only one here who had him, and he won the Derby pickem.

But it is the Preakness now, and as Rodney Dangerfield might say, Mystik Dan is getting no respect, no respect at all.

Well, that's not exactly true. As of this writing, Mystik Dan is the 2nd favorite at 5-2, with Muth the favorite at 8-5.

Muth didn't race the Derby. Why? Because he is trained by Bob Baffert, who is suspended from racing at Churchill Downs. In 2021, his horse Medina Spirit crossed the Derby finish line first, but was disqualified due to a drug test. And that was not the first time a Baffert horse failed a drug test. So the guy is one of the most successful trainers in history, and also one of the most controversial.

Hard to bet against Muth here, the horse is fast and rested. But if I was at the track I surely would also bet across the board on Mystik Dan.

I want a Triple Crown winner, but I don't think it is happening this year. Here are the early picks, and I might change on race day:

Muth
Catching Freedom
Imagination

Imagination
Tuscan Gold
Muth Catching Freedom

Imagination
Tuscan Gold
Mystik Dan

Muth has a heart attack on the final corner.

From Pimlico: Preakness (G1) morning line favorite Muth has been declared out of Saturday’s race after spiking a temperature after arriving at Pimlico late Tuesday night.

Hall of Fame trainer BB said the Arkansas Derby (G1) winner spiked a temperature of 103

Damnit

A little too much horse-meth

I had a white-hot vax injury joke ready to drop but I held off. I don't want to politicize every thread in here. That's JPGettysMikey's job.

HighPlainsGrifter wrote: ↑Wed May 15, 2024 3:41 pm don't want to politicize every thread in here. That's JPGettysMikey's job.

JPMikeysBurg is a bit more elegant, but regardless of the nic portmanteau, the job needs to be downsized out of existence.

Smackie Chan wrote: ↑Wed May 15, 2024 8:08 pm nic portmanteau,

That's really really where I'm going to. If I ever get out of here.

That's what I'm going to do.

Just Steel
Mystik Dan
Tuscan Gold

Looks like it will be a wet track on Saturday, and Mystik Dan has run fast in the mud.

Probably will go off as the favorite but so far I'm just not sold on him.

Especially with the weather, I'll want to see the horses on race day.

Roux wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2024 8:22 pm Looks like it will be a wet track on Saturday

I'll bet on the seahorse.

Mystik Dan
Tuscan Gold
Imagination

Went to the Preakness with friends a few lifetimes ago… aka during high school. Watching the races up close and personal was very impressive. Beautiful animals! Maryland has a long history in horse racing, but nothing like Churchill Downs, and Pimlico was pretty run down. Still is, I imagine. Anyway, back then at that age, the day was dedicated to getting wasted in the infield. The parties at Pimlico were legendary.

This was in the late Seventies, and back then you could bring anything into the infield with you, and I mean ANYTHING. There were neighborhood kids there whose side hustle was lugging shit in from the parking lot using stolen grocery carts. Tip each of them ten bucks and there we no limits.

The first year we went [’77?] we thought we were king shit bringing a 1/2 keg, a grill, a huge cooler full of food, a canopy, and lawn chairs. Pfffttt… rookies!! There were some unbelievable set ups that put us to shame. Scaffolding, couches and arm chairs, fully stocked bars, wading pools, generators for big TVs & projectors, etc.. You name it, people hauled it into the infield to party. Everyone shared generously, too, unlike today.

In ’78 or ’79, it rained like hell the day before and all morning before the races. There was a huge mud pit in the infield for the wimmin folk to wrestle in, and we played some hard core lacrosse games before the racing started. The rest of the day we actually did focus on the races [turf AND track], but drinking & drugging pretty much ruled the day. Great times. Big fun.

Oh yeah… this is a spittin’ image of our mascot one year, nicknamed Redunzl.


Smackie will get the reference. Maybe Mikey too.

Catching Freedom
Mystic Dan
Imagination

Seize the Grey.... Usually catch the Triple Crown on TV. Can't imagine being a jockey in a race. Loved going to Thorobred races at Finger Lakes track in upstate NY. Nice way to spend a sunny afternoon. Putting down a couple bucks on each race. Miss that down here.

Win: Seize The Grey $21.60 $8.40 $4.40

Place: Mystik Dan $4.20 $2.80

Show: Catching Freedom $3.20



Seer and I tied for the Preakness:

Roux
Catching Freedom
Mystic Dan $4.20
Imagination


StrawMan
Mystik Dan
Tuscan Gold
Imagination


Seer
Just Steel
Mystik Dan $4.20
Tuscan Gold


HPG
Imagination
Tuscan Gold
Mystik Dan $2.80


Smackie
Imagination
Tuscan Gold
Catching Freedom $3.20


And Seer is leading overall:

Seer $10.00 + $4.20 = $14.20
Roux $5.58 + $4.20 = $9.78
Smackie $6.54 + $3.20 = $9.74
Biggie $6.54
HPG $2.80

Biggie not winning $4.39 is proof the universe has no sense of humor.

The Belmont is June 8, he'll have a chance then

Good grief. $0.00, Blutarsky!

Early picks for the Belmont:

Horse


Horse


Horse

Hrose Cocks <---click at your own risk. You've been warned.