What a fuckin' dork. I guess this picture is pretty apropriate.
RIP, Governator. You're DOA.
Poll shows governor's 4 initiatives losing Nov. 8
Campaigning by leader said to be hurting agenda
By John Marelius
STAFF WRITER
November 1, 2005
All four of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's ballot initiatives appear headed for defeat in next Tuesday's special election, a new Field Poll shows.
The nonpartisan statewide survey released today also shows that Schwarzenegger is harming his agenda by campaigning for it because a plurality of likely voters said they were less inclined to vote for a Schwarzenegger-backed initiative.
Only 24 percent said his support of a proposition would make them more inclined to vote for it, while 43 percent said it would make them less inclined to support it.
"The thing that's most striking to me is the impact that Schwarzenegger himself is having on his own initiatives," said Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo. "It's got to be disastrous from the governor's standpoint."
Schwarzenegger won the 2003 recall election with solid support from Democrats and independents. Much of that support has eroded as his governing style has become more partisan.
Among Democrats, 69 percent said they would be less likely to vote for a Schwarzenegger-endorsed proposition as did 46 percent of independents and others. Among Republicans, 51 percent said they would be inclined to follow the governor's lead.
"For Schwarzenegger himself, his ability to reach across the aisle has been taken away from him," DiCamillo said.
Proposition 76, Schwarzenegger's initiative to limit state spending, appears hopelessly behind and a majority opposes Proposition 77, which would take away legislators' power to draw political districts.
Proposition 75, which is designed to weaken the political influence of public employee unions, is trailing after running well ahead in August.
Proposition 74, which would lengthen the probationary period for new teachers, is within striking distance of passing, but it has lost ground since August.
"It's the direction of change that's more important in a final poll than the actual numbers," DiCamillo said. "Unfortunately for the governor, the direction of change is moving against him."
Todd Harris, spokesman for Schwarzenegger's ballot measure campaign, said the campaign's internal polls show the four measures are doing better.
"We are going to have a very aggressive final week, both on television and with events featuring the governor and I'm going to wait until November 8 and let the voters decide, not the pollsters," he said.
Gale Kaufman, campaign manager for the Alliance for a Better California, the umbrella organization of labor unions opposing Schwarzenegger's agenda, predicted the governor would be shut out next Tuesday.
"We are engaged in a very serious campaign over all of these initiatives and they are all failing," Kaufman said. "And the more people get to know about them, they do worse, not better."
Another measure on the ballot, Proposition 80, has been largely overlooked compared to the other initiatives.
Proposition 80 would subject electric utilities to greater regulation and was qualified for the ballot by the labor unions and consumer groups opposing Schwarzenegger's agenda.
The Field Poll showed only 24 percent of the likely voters favored Proposition 80, compared to 48 percent who were opposed and 28 percent undecided.
The Field Poll conducted two week-long surveys this month. It interviewed 506 likely voters Oct. 18-24 and an additional 581 Tuesday through Sunday. The margin of error is +/-4 percentage points.
Opposition hardened against three of the four Schwarzenegger initiatives in the second week of polling.
Some of the findings:
Proposition 74: This initiative, which would lengthen the time it would take teachers to receive tenure from two to five years, has lost ground since a Field Poll in August, when it appeared to have a good chance of passing.
In August, 46 percent favored the measure and 37 percent did not.
Since then, support has declined to 44 percent but opposition has swelled to 50 percent.
Like all of the Schwarzenegger-backed measures, Proposition 74 has become highly partisan with 74 percent of Republicans favoring it, but only 19 percent of Democrats and 40 percent of independents backing it.
There is also a pronounced gender gap, with 50 percent of male voters supporting it compared to 38 percent of female voters.
Proposition 75: The measure requiring public employee unions to obtain written permission before using members' dues in political campaigns is following a similar pattern that a comparable initiative, Proposition 226, did in 1998.
Proposition 226 started out with commanding voter support, was statistically tied the week before the election and lost on Election Day by 6 percentage points.
Likewise, Proposition 75 enjoyed the support of 55 percent to 32 percent in August. That has eroded to 40 percent in favor to 50 percent opposed.
Proposition 75 is also highly partisan, with 71 percent of Republicans and 15 percent of Democrats in favor.
Voters in union households oppose the proposition 70 percent to 23 percent. Voters in non-union households are nearly evenly split.
Proposition 76: The complicated proposal to cap state spending and change the education funding formula has gained a little ground in the Field Poll, but continues to run far behind.
Three in five likely voters, 60 percent, said they would vote "no" compared to 32 percent who would vote "yes." That represents a modest improvement since August when the proposition was trailing 65 percent to 19 percent.
Among Republicans, 64 percent favor the spending limit, but among Democrats, only 8 percent are in support.
Proposition 77: This measure, to take the power to redraw political district boundaries away from the Legislature and give it to a panel of three retired judges, is opposed by a majority of likely voters.
In August, 46 percent were opposed and 32 percent were in favor. Since then, opposition has grown to 51 percent compared to 35 percent in favor.
Legislators redrew the lines in 2001 to protect incumbents of both parties from serious re-election challenges.
While Proposition 77 has drawn support and opposition across the political spectrum, it is seen in a partisan light by voters.
Only 18 percent of Democrats and 21 percent of independents favor Proposition 77, compared to 64 percent of Republicans.
"It wasn't meant to be a partisan reform initiative, but it is clearly perceived that way and I think that has to do with the governor," DiCamillo said.
