The rational UM-OSU thread.

[WolverineSteve]

I know there are several threads on this topic, I don't care here's another. It seems I've managed to use up most of my hate on MSU. I've not been able to muster up the same hate that used to burn deep inside me for OSU. I really do not hate them with the same intensity that they seem to have for us. I won't waste my time in threads where infantile terms like scUM or oSUcks. I won't stoop to "clever" monickers like Gargamel, or Mr. Rogers. I won't use the time tested yet lame alumni jokes like "pay for the pizza" or "you want fries with that?". Instead I will attempt to break this game down in logical, unemotional, football savvy terms, while still predicting a Michigan victory in the end. Like it could happen any other way.

Here goes:

UM offense vs. OSU defense

OSU is #1 in the conference against the run giving up a mere 78.7 ypg., and 2.4 per rush. UM is averaging 177 ypg and 4.1 per attempt. This will come down to Mike Hart. If he plays and is close to healthy it will help UM's cause. His backups have been improvig of late, but UM needs Hart to be able to establish any kind of ground attack. OSU also has 38 sacks to lead the league. As far as passing... OSU is tops in the league here as well. They're giving up 198 yards per game while UM is averaging 218. It stands to reason that UM's line needs to give Henne time to find Avant, Breaston, Manningham, Tabb, Bass, Massaquoi, and Ecker. The key is the play calling. If UM keeps it tight as they have in big games (until we find ourselves behind) then 14 or 17 points will be all UM can hope for. With some creativity, imagination, and the guts to play to win, they could put up 30.
Edge-OSU



UM defense vs. OSU offense

UM's D is 4th in the league in scoring allowing just 18.7 ppg. OSU's recent offensive outburst is good enough to bring their average up to 33.3 ppg. UM is allowing 137 ypg on the ground and just over 200 through the air. OSU is averaging 403 ypg with great balance of 196 rushing and 207 through the air. Given the choice I think UM tries to gang up against the run and force Smith to try and beat us with his arm. Of course the way he ran the ball last year, Herman will have his guys keying on Smith and trying to take away his running lanes when the pocket breaks down. I think UM matches up well against the OSU recievers. Holmes is more of a threat at wr than Ginn, but UM has an experienced defensive backfield that has picked off 10 passes this year. They are deep at safety as some youngsters gained alot of play time while the starters regained their health. OSU's play calling has been suspect much of the year. They have come on offensively of late and come into this matchup with some serious momentum. But in games against better defenses they have not fared well (UT and PSU).
Edge- UM

Special teams

This will be billed as Breaston vs. Ginn. Both have a world of talent, and both have underachieved this year. Both are capable of housing it at anytime. I doubt either will have much of a chance in the punting game as both teams are likely to kick the ball away from the returner. Neither team is giving up much on PR's with UM giving up just 1.9 yards per, and OSU just 1.3. I don't know about OSU, but UM has done a good job of kicking the ball off and forcing touchbacks all season. So the main impact may come on fg's. Huston and Rivas are 1,2 in the league with 18 and 17 fg's respectively. Rivas has missed 3 more kicks than Huston, but most were early on. He's been steady for the most part. Ginn and Breaston's stats mirror eachother's in the return categories.
Edge-Push


Coaching

Lloyd Carr vs. Jim Tressel. The vested Savior goes for an impressive 4-1 record vs. the school up north. Lloyd has an impressive w-l record vs. top ten teams. OSU and UM fans have griped about the offensive play-calling this season. In this series JT has the edge, overall I think Lloyd gets the nod.
Edge-Push

Intangibles
Ah yes, the dreaded intangibles. Those little things that don't show up in the boxscore. UM is at home. Now many will say that the Big House with it's aged alumni in attendance hardly creates a homefield advantage. But this is THE GAME. I've been to dozens of games there, and the House can rock for the big ones...OSU, ND, and the fags from E.Lansing. The electricity for The Game is unrivaled. The 97 game was the loudest I've ever heard, and the 100th meeting a couple years back was a close second. This aint Purdue, Iowa or Northwestern. Even the alum's know this isn't just another social event. Those who still have the lung capacity will join in the excitement and do their part.
The law of averages is squarely in UM's favor. There is little chance that JT can get to 4-1 against UM. 3-2 sounds better.
Edge-UM

This stacks up to be a classic. UM has done well in the underdog role this year. How dare the bookies make a home-dog in this series. OSU's offense is hitting on all cylanders lately. Their defense is tops in the conference. Michigan has played well on defense, but has been inconsistent offensively. UM has had their backs to the wall for over a month and has responded well. They've won 2 overtime games, and another on the games final play. They're battle tested and accustomes to tight games. This game lives up to the hype and will again show the nation why it is the greatest rivalry in all of sport.

Michigan-24
Ohio State-17



Do I have to root for MSU against Penn State????

[buckeye_in_sc]

^^^^

taking some of the fun out of this shit...


but damn if that analysis was not pretty much fucking nails...

I give tOSU the edge in special teams all around period...Huston has picked right up where Nugent left off in terms of kickoffs and FG's...Holmes is the lesser known of the two return men and that gives tOSU a 2 headed monster...the Special Teams play out of tOSU has been outstanding as of late...how will Michigan kick to them? pooch and play defense or bomb away and hope Holmes or Ginn does not break one?

to me tOSU's pass defense and pass rush better shore up a little bit...granted they totally shut NW down after the first drive, but the DB's will be busy with Avant, Breaston and especially Manningham...

the other thing to watch out for is if Michigan can contain TS from running...if so it could be a long day for tOSU, but then again it just opens up the passing game and what not...although Pittman has to tote the rock effectively and the tOSU OL must play their assses off...

hey I have to cheer for MSU as well...that is if I want tOSU to get the outright B10 championship...


I think Tressel is a little in LLoyd's dome now so this will be the litmus test...if Michigan wins then it is another case of the underdog beating the better team (ala the 90's)...if LLOYD loses another one not sure the Wolverine faithful can stomach 1-4


that being said I still stick to my prediction

tOSU 24
Michigan 10

I think tOSU gets a score from Offense, Defense and ST plus a late FG to put the game away...


great analysis Steve and Good Luck!

[Shoalzie]

Do I have to root for MSU against Penn State????

State will let us down just like they let down their fans. I wouldn't waste the effort. Let's just beat the Buckeyes and call it a season...screw bowl games.

[WolverineSteve]

Here's the deal Shoalzie, when UM wins we root against PSU, not actually for state. I think I may be able to do that. And if of couse by some miracle UM goes down, we root like hell for PSU, not that I'll be watching.

[titlover]

If Ginn can actually hold onto the ball on kickoff and punt returns, I say OSU wins.

[Shoalzie]

Here's the deal Shoalzie, when UM wins we root against PSU, not actually for state. I think I may be able to do that. And if of couse by some miracle UM goes down, we root like hell for PSU, not that I'll be watching.

Good way of putting it. We don't ever for State...just root against the opponent. Kind of like when State whipped up on Wisconsin last year. If Michigan does lose (god forbid)...I hope the Lions wipe the floor with the Spartans. I'd rather see JoePa win the conference than OSU.