Off-season topic: The Most Overrated teams

T REX · Post by **T REX** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:04 pm

http://www.collegefootballnews.com/2006 ... dTeams.htm

Notables:

1. Michigan State – No matter how good they look or how many starters are back, do not do it. Do not champion the Spartans, America’s most overrated college football program. Resist that temptation and you’ll prove wiser than your peers in the end. Ten times since 1971, Michigan State has been ranked in the preseason. In nine of those years, they ended the season unranked. And there are some real clunkers in the school vault, including Bobby Williams’ last team, which opened 2002 at No. 17, yet could only manage four victories and a host of off-field missteps.
*Composite Score: -19.80

8. Notre Dame – Rejoice, Irish haters. The 35-year evidence bears out your long-held belief that Notre Dame football gets way more credit in the polls than it deserves. The Irish have been ranked in 30 preseasons since 1971, but have been able to maintain or improve upon that projection a mere eight times. And on 11 occasions, they slid completely off the charts by the time the final bowl game had been played. The last three times Notre Dame was ranked in the preseason—1999, 2001 and 2003—it failed to manufacture more than five wins.
*Composite Score: -10.40

T10. Texas – Alright, it’s damn tough to sell Texas as overrated with last year’s national championship still fresh in our minds, however, since 1971, this has, by no measure, been one of the most consistent programs in the country. The ‘Horns get weighed down by 1976, 1988, 1991 and 1997, four losing seasons in the face of lofty preseason predictions. Good thing for Mack Brown. Remove the coach’s tenure from the record books, and Texas is just behind Michigan State, or dangerously close to being college football’s most overrated school of the last 35 years.
*Composite Score: -9.96

T10. UCLA – Save for Washington and Washington State, which didn’t qualify, the Pac-10 doesn’t fare particularly well in this discussion. Witness UCLA, one of the most difficult programs to size up each year. When you think up they’re up, they’re down. And when you think they’re down, they wind up winning 10 games, such as last year. The Bruins have historically done an awful job of living up to their talent, failing to maintain preseason rankings 75% of the time and dropping completely out of the polls nearly once every two years. From 1989 to 1995, UCLA received preseason love from the voters five times, yet ended just one of those seasons in the Top 25.
*Composite Score: - 9.96

19. Florida – With Steve Spurrier on the sidelines, Florida never deviated more than seven spots from their preseason ranking in 12 years. With Doug Dickey, Charley Pell, Galen Hall and Ron Zook at the helm, the Gators were far less predictable, often sliding double digits or completely out of the picture by the time bowls began. Where the school goes from here is in the hands of Urban Meyer, who began with a solid -2 in his quest to guide the Gators back to being a perennial player in the SEC and national title chases.
*Composite Score: -6.08

30. Florida State – To understand Florida State’s place in this analysis, all you really need to know is that from 1987 to 2000, the ‘Noles never finished a year outside the AP’s Top 5, a truly incomprehensible accomplishment. Now, the program hasn’t been back to that zip code since, which is why they’ve recently fallen behind Miami. Not since 1983, when they lost five games, has Florida State finished a season unranked that they began in the Top 25.
*Composite Score: -2.64

Just for conversation.....

buckeye_in_sc · Post by **buckeye_in_sc** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:12 pm

What...MSU #1 I call Bullshit!

Sin,

Babs

Hey where's Iowa?

Sin,

Jon

in all seriousness...how can Texas be on this list? I mean yeah they lost FJ...but damn they got a lot of talent back...i mean defensively they maybe as good or better than last year...

ND still has a tough offense...so they will score...

Florida and FSU...I mean the ACC might be a little down this year so it might be FSU's to lose...and while no one on this board outside of Rex is sold on Opie's offense in the SEC...they still have a ton of talent...

i can think of other teams...what about perhaps Louisville? Iowa?

The spot on one is MSU...that about gets it right...

T REX · Post by **T REX** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:26 pm

I think this is a composite of the last 35 years. I'm sure Texas should be on there.

Killian · Post by **Killian** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:36 pm

This is historically.

The last 8 years certainly didn't help matters, nor did the 5 year stretch under Faust. Holtz likely did well in this scoring system.

BlindRef · Post by **BlindRef** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:37 pm

The list isn't based on subjectivity at all.

If you read the way the composite score is created its based purely on the average positions a team falls between the preseason poll and the end of the season poll.

The only teams included were teams that were ranked in the top 20 at least 10 times in the last 31 years.

The flaw in the list is that it makes it a count down, thus implying that teams like Florda State, Michigan and Ohio State are at all overrated, and the fact that they always start in the top 20 and almost always end in the top 20 is the exact opposite of overrated.

The list should be viewed like a curve. With Michigan State getting an E and Miami getting an A.

I didn't do that well in math so I couldn't place all the teams appropriatly on the curve, but I think it means that Michigan would get a B or B-.

King Crimson · Post by **King Crimson** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:54 pm

before i clicked into the thread, i immediately thought Wisconsin and in the late 80's and 90's: Syracuse.

PSUFAN · Post by **PSUFAN** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 7:04 pm

Where the hell is Georgia? They're always overrated.

T REX · Post by **T REX** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:27 pm

Just food for thought and it looked somewhat interesting for off-season purposes.

indyfrisco · Post by **indyfrisco** » Tue Jun 06, 2006 4:18 pm

Well, in all honesty, it is somewhat an honor to be on this list. I see nothing but respected football programs on there. If someone wants to call them overrated, so be it. When my school is mentioned in the same breath as many of those, I am proud.

Of course, at our current pace, we won't be a part of the same discussion over the next 35 years. Hope that changes soon... :brad:

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Tue Jun 06, 2006 4:25 pm

1. Michigan State

That hurts.

But finally, at least #1 in something...

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Tue Jun 06, 2006 4:28 pm

PSUFAN wrote:Where the hell is Georgia? They're always overrated.

27. Georgia – Georgia’s strength has come from its ability to fool the forecasters more regularly than any other team in college football over the last 35 years. They’ve been ranked in the preseason two dozen times and have met or exceeded expectations a cool dozen of those years. That’s helped to offset the inevitable slip and fall that bit the Dawgs in 1977 and 1993. Since Mark Richt arrived five years ago, the program has continued its positive trend, climbing the rankings three years and sliding just four spots in 2004.
*Composite Score: -3.29

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Tue Jun 06, 2006 4:34 pm

IndyFrisco wrote:Well, in all honesty, it is somewhat an honor to be on this list. I see nothing but respected football programs on there. If someone wants to call them overrated, so be it. When my school is mentioned in the same breath as many of those, I am proud.

Of course, at our current pace, we won't be a part of the same discussion over the next 35 years. Hope that changes soon... :brad:

Bingo. According to this list, USC, Notre Dame, Michigan, Texas, Alabama, Ohio St and Tennessee are all overrated. These are some of the winnigest, most storied programs of all time. If these programs are overrated, then I think "overrated" is where you want to be.

indyfrisco · Post by **indyfrisco** » Tue Jun 06, 2006 6:14 pm

And for sure, the purpose of the author of this article was 1 thing: firestorm. When you call out the best programs in history (and still even are today) as overrated, the author is just trying to start some shit to get his/her name out there in conversation. It's infamous self promoting at its best.

Mission accomplished.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Tue Jun 06, 2006 7:07 pm

I sent him an email. He responded back.

Well, Josh, they've all been overrated to some degree because there's always more territory behind a team in the polls than in front of them. If USC, for instance, is No. 7 in August, they can move north six spots, but in theory, they can go south a whole lot more. It's all relative, so you want to look at who has been overrated in the preseason polls the most. In this conversation, teams like Alabama and Ohio State have been historically stronger at upholding their preseason targets than, say, Notre Dame or USC.

King Crimson · Post by **King Crimson** » Tue Jun 06, 2006 8:41 pm

by his own statement that there's more territory behind than ahead....does it not call into question the strictly numerical measure.....if 1-5 is of a different value than 15-20....then they are hardly equal terms of comparison....such that the dif between 5 and 4 is not the same 15 and 14.

as such, his methodology is a little in question...without a standardized, reliable, consistant term of comparison.....where X=X.

?

yeah, i know it's just some goofy off-season poll....

but i'm bored.

Vito Corleone · Post by **Vito Corleone** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 5:00 am

The whole reason teams like Texas and Notre Dame are considered overrated is because everyone expects more from them then most schools.

a$m will never be considered overrated because no one ever expects much from them on a regular basis.

in the 70's Texas was a handful of plays away from winning 3 MNCs. In the 80's they were one play away from winning a championship in 83. After that the wheels came off for about 15 years. Since 98 Texas has been the best team in college football with more wins than anyone.

Shoalzie · Post by **Shoalzie** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 5:17 am

MgoBlue-LightSpecial wrote:
1. Michigan State
That hurts.

But finally, at least #1 in something...

I heard about this poll on the radio the other day...it is kind of a warped ranking. The most overrated teams should be those who are consistently ranked high but don't live up to expectations. Most people think State'll win 6 or 7 games in a season and they turn out with only 4 or 5...I don't call that overrated, more like mediocre. Michigan is more overrated in this sense.

stuckinia · Post by **stuckinia** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:16 am

Vito Corleone wrote:The whole reason teams like Texas and Notre Dame are considered overrated is because everyone expects more from them then most schools.

Ummm, isn't that the definition of overrated? Everyone expecting more?

RACK the underrated Hokies...

29. Virginia Tech – The Hokies’ first preseason AP ranking didn’t occur until 1994, but they’ve attracted enough attention to pick up the requisite 10 mentions to qualify for this debate. They’ve replaced spectacular with steady, notching at least seven wins and a bowl berth in each of the last 13 seasons. The bottom has yet to fall out since they started getting respect in the polls, and they’ve had just enough double-digit jumps in the polls to manufacture a very respectable composite score.

*Composite Score: -2.70

indyfrisco · Post by **indyfrisco** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 2:27 pm

Vito Corleone wrote:in the 70's [insert team here] was a handful of plays away from winning 3 MNCs.

ftfy.

Killian · Post by **Killian** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 2:42 pm

Vito Corleone wrote:Since 98 Texas has been the best team in college football with more wins than anyone.

Consistent, yes. Best, no.

Jimmy Medalions · Post by **Jimmy Medalions** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:55 pm

I gotta go with Florida. If it weren't for Spurrier and his window at the program, they'd be a speedbump in the SEC for the real programs that need a tune-up before a real game.

Zook and Urban Legend have/will validate this.

buckeye_in_sc · Post by **buckeye_in_sc** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 8:12 pm

1993 tOSU was a 28-0 loss away from playing for a MNC
1995 tOSU was a 34-25 loss away from playing for a MNC
1996 tOSU was a 13-9 loss away from playing for a MNC
1998 tOSU was 28-24 loss away from playing for a MNC

so what? Vito come on clean out the cobwebs dude...just because you won the most games since 1998 doesn't make you the best...I mean tOSU has the same amount of NC's since 1998 that Texas does ONE, and so does LSU, FSU, and OU, etc...big deal...

carry on...

most overrated team ever 1995 Nebraska Cornhuskers...cue Brad meltdown in 5..4..3..2..1

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Fri Jun 09, 2006 10:30 pm

Shoalzie wrote:
MgoBlue-LightSpecial wrote:
1. Michigan State
That hurts.

But finally, at least #1 in something...

I heard about this poll on the radio the other day...it is kind of a warped ranking. The most overrated teams should be those who are consistently ranked high but don't live up to expectations. Most people think State'll win 6 or 7 games in a season and they turn out with only 4 or 5...I don't call that overrated, more like mediocre. Michigan is more overrated in this sense.

Yeah, I think we need to start referencing the term "overrated" toward the pollsters, not the teams, because they're the ones getting the picks wrong.

Vito Corleone · Post by **Vito Corleone** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:10 pm

Since 98 Texas is 83-18. I think only Oklahoma is close to Texas.

King Crimson · Post by **King Crimson** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:50 pm

Vito Corleone wrote:Since 98 Texas is 83-18. I think only Oklahoma is close to Texas.

what's UT's record against top 10 teams in that period? i doubt it's .500.

why not just say since Mack took over....since that's the quasi-arbitrary date for choosing 1998.

the_ouskull · Post by **the_ouskull** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:12 pm

Well, that and the miserable year that they had in 1997, which is actually the reason... What were they, 4-8?

the_ouskull

Vito Corleone · Post by **Vito Corleone** » Sun Jun 11, 2006 2:55 am

King Crimson wrote:
Vito Corleone wrote:Since 98 Texas is 83-18. I think only Oklahoma is close to Texas.
what's UT's record against top 10 teams in that period? i doubt it's .500.

why not just say since Mack took over....since that's the quasi-arbitrary date for choosing 1998.

Are you asking about teams that ended the season in the top 10 or teams that were in the top 10 when they played?

FLW Buckeye · Post by **FLW Buckeye** » Sun Jun 11, 2006 4:25 am

Hell, no wonder Tejasfan doesn't want to go back further than 1998.

Isn't 97 the year that Texas went from a top 10 ranked team (#10-Coaches/#12-AP) to being unranked in a one week period? Why, yes it is.

Of course, nobody can blame you. Anyone would want to forget the 66-3 buttfucking in the mouth that UT took at home from UCLA.