The Helmet Game - ND vs Michigan

[BlindRef]

Ahh yes....the greatest rivalry that isn't. Its funny listening to Michigan fans bitch about how jealous they are of Ohio State scheduling Texas. Well, Michigan schedules Notre Dame, that problem is that even though the Irish aren't in a conference, I think people assume the two teams are supposed to play each other. It ends up feeling more like a conference game than some large cross-sectional game. Either way, I always enjoy this matchup. Here is how I view next weekend:

Why Michigan Will Win.

1) Revenge. Michigan owes it to Notre Dame. If Lloyd has any pride left and Chad Henne is as good as he's supposed to be, they will find a way to repay Notre Dame for last year.

2) Defense. The Michigan defense looks much better than the last few years. Different looks, more aggressive, I think the D will cause some problems for Ntore Dame.

3) Chad Hanne, the kid needs this to start his Michigan legacy.

4) Schedule. Notre Dame has had to get up for two big games already, Michigan hasn't. I think Michigan's intensity will be higher and Notre Dame might be a little worn out from all the scoring they did against PSU.

5) Notre Dame is overrated. I think there are some holes and weaknesses that Michigan can exploit. If they can find a way to score on Notre Dame, Michigan will win.

Why Michigan will lose:

1) Road Opener: Lloyd has lost 6 straight road openers.

2) Chad Henne: If he plays like he played last year against Notre Dame, expect another home blowout for the Irish.

3) Secondary: The Michigan Secondary doesn't step it up, and those couple mistakes made against CMU and Vandy are legitimate problems.

4) The luck of the Irish: shit just seems to fall into play for them at home...strange kicks, wierd bounces...God needs to worry about solving bigger problems than Notre Dame football.

5) Notre Dame is underrated: They might be the second best team in the country after all.



My prediction 6 days out: The Champions of the West 24 The dirty stinking filthy drunken mic's 21.

I reserve the right to adjust this as we approach my departure from Ann Arbor as I head to South Bend.


Go Blue.

[RadioFan]

Michigan has got to find a way to stop ND's screens, if they hope to win this game.

From both games that I've seen this year, ND gains a ton of YAC because the blocking scemes off of those plays are very good, combined with some great individual talent. First-down plays that start off looking like they are going absolutely nowhere end up being 8-yard gains, creating many second-and-short opportunities, where they can run just about anything, just for shits and giggles.

ND runs the screens as well as any team in the country, imo. Shut that down and you force them to throw the ball downfield. Michigan's run defense seems solid enough. It's the secondary that's the big question, as BlindRef said.

[Qbert]

i vote for a Tie.

~m2

[Terry in Crapchester]

Ahh yes....the greatest rivalry that isn't. Its funny listening to Michigan fans bitch about how jealous they are of Ohio State scheduling Texas. Well, Michigan schedules Notre Dame, that problem is that even though the Irish aren't in a conference, I think people assume the two teams are supposed to play each other. It ends up feeling more like a conference game than some large cross-sectional game.

Most ND fans consider Michigan their team's second most-significant rival, trailing only USC (although a case could be made that in the 80's, Miami surpassed both. But like I've said in other threads, the Miami rivalry was different from both Michigan and USC.) Michigan and ND have a rivalry dating back to the 19th century, Michigan first taught ND how to play football, and the two schools are only about 200 miles or so apart. In consideration of all of those factors, it's actually somewhat surprising that Saturday's matchup is only the 34th meeting between the two, conference affiliations notwithstanding.

Either way, I always enjoy this matchup.

It's usually a close game, 2003 being the exception to the rule. :twisted: :brad:

From an historical standpoint, here's an interesting note: of all teams with over 10 all-time matchups vs. ND, Michigan has the best all-time record vs. ND. In fact, only Michigan (18-14-1) and Nebraska (8-7-1) have winning records all-time vs. ND among teams who have played ND a minimum of ten times (Penn State would have been in that category with a win Saturday; ND now leads the all-time series vs. Penn State 9-8-1).

Here is how I view next weekend:

Why Michigan Will Win.

1) Revenge. Michigan owes it to Notre Dame. If Lloyd has any pride left and Chad Henne is as good as he's supposed to be, they will find a way to repay Notre Dame for last year.

2) Defense. The Michigan defense looks much better than the last few years. Different looks, more aggressive, I think the D will cause some problems for Ntore Dame.

3) Chad Hanne, the kid needs this to start his Michigan legacy.

4) Schedule. Notre Dame has had to get up for two big games already, Michigan hasn't. I think Michigan's intensity will be higher and Notre Dame might be a little worn out from all the scoring they did against PSU.

5) Notre Dame is overrated. I think there are some holes and weaknesses that Michigan can exploit. If they can find a way to score on Notre Dame, Michigan will win.

Why Michigan will lose:

1) Road Opener: Lloyd has lost 6 straight road openers.

2) Chad Henne: If he plays like he played last year against Notre Dame, expect another home blowout for the Irish.

3) Secondary: The Michigan Secondary doesn't step it up, and those couple mistakes made against CMU and Vandy are legitimate problems.

4) The luck of the Irish: shit just seems to fall into play for them at home...strange kicks, wierd bounces...God needs to worry about solving bigger problems than Notre Dame football.

5) Notre Dame is underrated: They might be the second best team in the country after all.



My prediction 6 days out: The Champions of the West 24 The dirty stinking filthy drunken mic's 21.

I reserve the right to adjust this as we approach my departure from Ann Arbor as I head to South Bend.


Go Blue.

I don't have time to break it down to that extent. I will say that I think ND wins this game on the basis of more returning talent, the home-field advantage, and I think the offense may have found its legs against Penn State. Our defense has far surpassed my expectations so far -- if you had told me before the season started that ND would pitch a shutout for an entire half against both Georgia Tech (2nd half) and Penn State (1st half), I would have told you that we will win a national championship. I'm not quite ready to say that now, but it does feel nice to have one of our units far exceeding expectations so far.

I'll go with ND 28, Michigan 24. But I think Henne and Hart will get their revenge in '07.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

No way in hell L. Carr goes into South Bend and out coaches Weis...especially with the kind of returning talent he has to work with.

ND - 27
UofM - 17

[Van]

ND-30
Michigan-16

[Shoalzie]

I really go into this game on what the first two games of this season have taught us about each team so far. I completely ignore the rankings at this point because they are nothing other than just a number next to the team name. I think know more about Notre Dame based on their opposition. While many weren't too impressed with the Georgia Tech game, they made a lot of believers out of this Saturday's game against Penn State. The yards gained were fairly close but the game really wasn't as close as the stats would say. Quinn is completing passes at a high percentage and he's spreading the ball out to a lot of receivers...geez, that sounds a lot like the Patriots offense, doesn't it?

As for Michigan, I can say the running game looks strong after two games...granted, against weak opposition. Nearly 500 yards as a team in two games is still impressive when you're playing against a Division I opponent. What's also impressive...allowing just 58 yards on the ground in two games. Darius Walker has been a thorn in the side of the Wolverines in two seasons by rushing over 100 yards in those two games as well as scoring 2 touchdowns. If Michigan can keep him under control, that would very key in slowing down the Irish's balanced offense. On the other side of the coin, Michigan's ground game has only gained about 200 yards in the last games against Notre Dame. Winning the battle in the running game always dictates whether or not Michigan can win games. Mike Hart is healthy and running as well as he did his freshman year. It should be a great duel on the ground between him and Walker.

Henne is ultimately the wild card. If the Irish can contain the Michigan running attack, it'll come down to Henne to lead them to victory. He's only complete 51.2% of his passes and he's thrown for fewer yards (248) than Hart has gained by himself on the ground (262). Quinn is coming off a great year as a passer and is already on his way towards being invited to New York City later in the year. I don't think Henne can out-throw Quinn given the effectiveness of the Weis offensive system. Michigan doesn't win by beating teams through the air. They do need to be efficient with the passing game just to take pressure off the running game but you never go into a game expecting a Michigan QB throw for 300 yards and 3 TDs like Quinn is capable of.

Given the fact that Michigan struggles in the first tough road game of last season and Weis has a full year under his large belt as do his players under his system...I can't help but believe the Irish are a pretty good favorite in this game. Pressure is on Llllloyd to win a big rivalry game on the road but until they do it, I don't believe they can pull it off. Maybe if this is at the Big House, I might feel different but these tough early season road games are always this team's ultimate undoing. Plus, given the fact the Irish have faced much better opposition, they are more than ready to face a team like Michigan right now...meanwhile, Michigan goes from playing two cupcakes at home to facing a title contending team on the road. I don't like the Wolverines chances Saturday unfortunately. If they do win in South Bend, I would deem that as an upset.

Notre Dame 28, Michigan 17

[L45B]

Its funny listening to Michigan fans bitch about how jealous they are of Ohio State scheduling Texas. Well, Michigan schedules Notre Dame, that problem is that even though the Irish aren't in a conference, I think people assume the two teams are supposed to play each other. It ends up feeling more like a conference game than some large cross-sectional game.

You are catching on, BlindRef. I don't think too many Michigan fans are paying attention to this.

Call me crazy, but this is one of the reasons I believe Ohio State is currently a premier CFB program, and Michigan currently is not. tOSU does not have a non-conference rival that it is "stuck" to every season. We are scheduling some huge home n' home games in the next decade (USC, Miami, VaTech, Oklahoma to name a few). And these games will no doubt be THE game to watch on Saturday, as was the case with OSU-Texas both this year and last. This creates buzz and brings lots of national attention to our program, moreso than a traditional matchup that repeats itself every year.

I remember hearing last year that with the current BCS format, many teams might stray away from scheduling an early, out-of-the-norm, non-conf game that could potentially spoil a team's MNC chances. But I think schools like tOSU, Texas, & USC are using this to their advantage. I think as long as Notre Dame is on the slate and is a top 10 team, Michigan will hesitate to schedule another top tier non-conf opponent.

This all has to do with the way college football is changing. Regional dominance is no longer the goal of top programs. Traditional non-conference rivalries are trailing the "buzz" games as far as national attention goes. Many Michigan fans I'm sure are jealous when tOSU is in the spotlight like it was on Saturday. But I think most of them are too set in their ways to want things to be any different. JMHO.

[L45B]

BTW, I am actually picking the scUMmers to win this weekend, 38-31.

[RadioFan]

Many Michigan fans I'm sure are jealous when tOSU is in the spotlight like it was on Saturday.

What are you talking about? Michigan fans should be thankful that they are in our ND spotlight this week. It promises to be the greatest game in the history of football.

-- NBC

[Terry in Crapchester]

Regional dominance is no longer the goal of top programs.

Agree with this, and in fact, that's one of the ways in which the rest of college football is actually coming to Notre Dame's viewpoint. But then you come back with . . .

Traditional non-conference rivalries are trailing the "buzz" games as far as national attention goes.

And that's where you lost me.

I know many of us have said here on several occasions that the tradition of some of the great rivalries in college football is what sets it apart from other sports. If that's the case, why would you want to abandon, say, Michigan-ND? They may sit each other out once in awhile, but I don't think this rivalry will ever go away on anything remotely resembling a permanent basis.

And yes, tOSU-Texas was an intriguing matchup, made all the moreso by the fact that those two programs don't play that often. But having said that, a little bit of luck was involved as well. Both of those programs are among the premier programs in college football, but what were the odds that this series would generate a 1 vs. 2 matchup?

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

Call me crazy, but this is one of the reasons I believe Ohio State is currently a premier CFB program, and Michigan currently is not.

OSU has been in the spotlight over Michigan, simply because they've been stockpiling better seasons. Yeah, home-and-homes against teams like Texas certainly contribute, but in the end, it all comes down to winning seasons.

If Michigan has USC, for example, on the second weekend of their season, and loses, and goes on to pull a 7-5 job, they'll be forgotten. No one will think back on all that regular season hype that surrounded them at "the time." Regular season, non conference exposure is important, but it means nothing if you don't finish the season well. National attention will always surround itself around those top 5 teams. The undefeated and one loss teams.

Unless you're Notre Dame. Then you get your cock sucked regardless.

[Loganfan]

Nice breakdown, BR.

I'll Homer ~no shit~ and take the Irish by 10 or so..........31-19

[BlindRef]

This is probably my last chance to post before I head out to South Bed.

Killian where are your thoughts?

I stick with my prediction.

[Killian]

This is probably my last chance to post before I head out to South Bed.

Killian where are your thoughts?

I stick with my prediction.

Got some shit to do today, but I'll get back to this.

If you don't have a place to tailgate on Saturday, drop me a PM. There are a couple of good places.

[M Club]

checked on the satellite feed: all i have is clemson/fsu. cfb fooken sucks. unless umich wins. pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeease.

[Killian]

I think ND is going to get the ball first, and if they go down and score a TD, the game may be decided on the next drive. If ND stops that drive and can score again, ND will force UofM into a passing game and UofM can't out shoot ND.

Henne is a very, very average passer. He only passes well to the right. Every time he goes to the left, his mechanics break down and he tends to rely on his "gun" rather than his "arm". If ND can force them into a passing game, it bodes very well for them.

If Michigan stops ND on the first drive and gets up on ND, they can sit back and play a ball control offense and put pressure on Quinn to even the score.

I think ND will score on the first drive, and I don't think Michigan will. I don't know what the final will be, but I think ND will win by 7-10. The game comes down to Henne and English and how he disguises his blitzes.

[L45B]

I know many of us have said here on several occasions that the tradition of some of the great rivalries in college football is what sets it apart from other sports. If that's the case, why would you want to abandon, say, Michigan-ND? They may sit each other out once in awhile, but I don't think this rivalry will ever go away on anything remotely resembling a permanent basis.

I'm not saying that the tradition of the game should ever go away or will go away. I'm just of the opinion that the game is changing and that these one-off intersectional matchups will continue to get huge ratings. And at times, they will overshadow your traditional non-conference matchups.

This weekend is a perfect example. ESPN College GameDay, admit it or not, garners mass attention for CFB. Of all the great games being played this weekend, they are setting up camp in LA. Yes, that has some to do with ABC's Saturday night coverage. But it also has a lot to do with the fact that it is a rare event that Nebraska treks out for a game in the Coliseum. If it’s a #1 vs. #2 matchup, that’s icing on the cake.

If Michigan has USC, for example, on the second weekend of their season, and loses, and goes on to pull a 7-5 job, they'll be forgotten. No one will think back on all that regular season hype that surrounded them at "the time." Regular season, non conference exposure is important, but it means nothing if you don't finish the season well.

I know what you’re saying, but I personally think UM, particularly, has missed the boat to really put its team on the national stage, especially during that time (late 90s/early 00s) when they won 3 straight bowl games and went to a couple Rose Bowls. Right afterwards, nothing changed in UM’s scheduling philosophy. EMU, Notre Dame, Big 10, bowl game, hit repeat. Whereas teams like USC & tOSU tasted some success and are now stopping at nothing to spice up the schedule and keep that national spotlight on their respective teams. Hell, USC plays Notre Dame every year, yet it is still scheduling the Nebraskas & Ohio States as well. Throw in the conference strength excuse, but IMO Michigan (or a certain fellow who basically runs the athletics up there) is too stubborn to stray away from its current routine. And it is costing them. Especially in recruiting.

OSU has been in the spotlight over Michigan, simply because they've been stockpiling better seasons. Yeah, home-and-homes against teams like Texas certainly contribute, but in the end, it all comes down to winning seasons.

I agree with that comment given the current state of things. But I think that spotlight eventually leads to a cycle of more winning seasons & better recruiting and the opposite for teams not getting the pub. I think that phase has already started with regards to tOSU-Michigan.

Again, JMHO.

[Husker4ever]

Michigan 24
ND 10

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

I know what you’re saying, but I personally think UM, particularly, has missed the boat to really put its team on the national stage, especially during that time (late 90s/early 00s) when they won 3 straight bowl games and went to a couple Rose Bowls. Right afterwards, nothing changed in UM’s scheduling philosophy. EMU, Notre Dame, Big 10, bowl game, hit repeat.

Love em or hate em, Michigan has, unfortunately, earned that "luxury". They can go out and play Birmingham Brother Rice, Canada Tech, and a video game simulation as their first three OOC games, and they'll still get to a title game as long as they win-out in Big Ten play. The winningest team in D1 history doesn't exactly have to put itself on the map.

[Van]

They can go out and play Birmingham Brother Rice, Canada Tech, and a video game simulation as their first three OOC games...

I will steal that line and use it. Maybe not here, no, but somewhere in life I will use those two examples and I will KILL with 'em.

:-)

[WolverineSteve]

Lloyd's record vs. top 10 teams...15-6

Lloyds record vs. top 5 teams...7-2

Lloyd's record vs. teams ranked #2...3-1.

Now none of those figures means shit. Charles Woodson aint running out of the tunnel tommorow, neither is Desmond Howard, Elvis Grbac, or Tim Biakabatuka. The point of the excersise is to point out that the fact that UM hasn't won in South bend since before Monica Lewinsky was a household name, and that figure doesn't mean shit either. Nor does the glaring stat that UM hasn't won in six road openers. Michigan will win this game because what is expected in this series rarely happens. Whenever UM is supposed to destroy ND...they lose. When the experts fail to give UM their due...things tend to go their way. Defensive aggressiveness and speed will hold Quinn and the boys somewhat in check. A healthy Hart finally gets to get in a full game vs. the Irish. Henne gets redemption for probably the worst game of his career last year.

UM-27
ND-13

[Jimmy Medalions]

Flip those numbers and you're pretty much where I see this game going.

Weis is just better.

[Shoalzie]

Gameday is finally here...I don't really feel any different and/or better about this game. I don't know how this team or season should be any different than how recent history has treated the Wolverines. They can't seem to win the big game on the road and it's pretty much a yearly occurence that they lose this first tough road game each year to knock them out of the title chase right away. Remember, this program cares more about being the best of 11 teams and not the best of 119. Lowered expectations leads to lesser results and this is why it is frustrating to be a Michigan football fan these days. Carr will play this potential loss off as not being a big deal but that's just because the only games that mean anything to this program are conference games. With this joke of a bowl system, it's all about finishing high in the conference to get a better bowl appearance and more money and not to qualify for a playoff and play for the ultimate prize. I wouldn't have exactly walked around with my chest puffed out had they beat Nebraska in the mighty Alamo Bowl. If your goal every year isn't to play for a national title, than you're not going to back your way into getting that opportunity.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

Why wouldn't you focus on winning your conference, genius? You're probably not going to play for a title if you don't do well in conference play.

Why should Lloyd be concerned about January in September?

[Shoalzie]

Why wouldn't you focus on winning your conference, genius? You're probably not going to play for a title if you don't do well in conference play.

Why should Lloyd be concerned about January in September?

What is the point of playing non-conference games then? You seem to look at me cross-eyed anytime I say the national title is more important a conference title. Isn't it? You don't play an entire basketball season to just win the conference and make the Big Dance...you play to win the whole ball of wax. What is there to look forward to if your only hope every season is it to better than Minnesota, Purdue and Wisconsin? I know at State that don't have the same expectations for their program given where they've been but why shouldn't they try to aim high as well? You make it sound like I'm being an unreasonable fan. I think I'd be a bad fan if I just sat back and took 9 or 10 wins and be happy. Being a fan and hoping for and expecting the best out of my teams isn't a crime.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

You seem to look at me cross-eyed anytime I say the national title is more important a conference title. Isn't it?

Guess what? You're not gettin' that crack at the national title unless you win your conference games. You want B without accomplishing A.

You make it sound like I'm being an unreasonable fan.

Because you are. A coach has to focus on his conference schedule first. Everything is dictated on how you do in conference play.

[Shoalzie]

You seem to look at me cross-eyed anytime I say the national title is more important a conference title. Isn't it?

Guess what? You're not gettin' that crack at the national title unless you win your conference games. You want B without accomplishing A.

I'm not denying that. The objective every year is to win every game on your schedule...a simple concept. But you have the non-conference games first and if you don't go into conference play unbeaten or having lost in a close game to a great team...you have nothing else to play for other than that conference title, winning rivalry games and then playing in an anti-climactic bowl game. I look at the big picture and not just that regional stuff.

You make it sound like I'm being an unreasonable fan.

Because you are. A coach has to focus on his conference schedule first. Everything is dictated on how you do in conference play.

Again, teams start the year with non-conference games...at least most of them do. How about let's not have a national title and just give out trophies for winning the conferences if they are so important. To win the whole thing, winning the conference is pretty much part of the deal. Who was the last team to "win the national title" without winning their conference? The way this FUBAR system works, you have to pretty much run the table to get a sniff at the title...that in turn means, you have to take care of business in your conference season. Win all of your conference games but go winless in the early part of the season...you aren't playing anything other than a bowl check.

[Shoalzie]

Another stop on defense...this couldn't start better for Michigan. Henne is delivery the ball with touch from any distance, Hart is a monster and the defense has the clamps on Weis' attack.

[Shoalzie]

Daaaaaaaaamn...

Irish secondary =

[Sky]

Holy crap, I can't believe this game. Jeff Smakjaodijflakdvjcknvcxzmndoija has one catch for 4 yds, Quinn is 3/13 w/ 1 int, and Walker has 21 yds. Weiss is a freaking genius.

[Husker4ever]

Rack me and Wolverine Steve...so far. Steve we should have added another 20 to our prediction of a Michigan win.

Michigan 47
ND 17 (late)


#2 ranked media darlings getting bitched....I hope this trend continues. Go Big Red and ram some more biased, market dicksucking media predictions up their asses.

[FLW Buckeye]

Up to now, it's looking like the Midwest version of the Cal-Tenn game.

[Husker4ever]

Holy crap, I can't believe this game. Jeff Smakjaodijflakdvjcknvcxzmndoija has one catch for 4 yds, Quinn is 3/13 w/ 1 int, and Walker has 21 yds. Weiss is a freaking genius.

Yep....and Booty of USC was born a 4 year starter at a major college...he won't make any mistakes this evening for USC. Shit, just ask around.

[Shoalzie]

Garbage touchdown to end the half...I don't really believe that's the beginning of a big comeback. Look for a lot of Hart and Grady in the second half to eat up clock and yards. This has still been a marvelous first half.

[Shoalzie]

The faces of the Notre Dame players tell the story...they were completely overwelmed and they don't really know what just hit them. A tip of the cap oyd Carr...this team was ready for this game and they carry some major momentum with the start of conference play next week (sup Mgo).

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

Can't believe I drank the ND koolaid so quickly after that PSU drubbing. I should've stuck to my guns as them being overrated.

Props to Michigan. They looked solid.

[WolverineSteve]

Lloyd's record vs. top 10 teams...15-6

Lloyds record vs. top 5 teams...7-2

Lloyd's record vs. teams ranked #2...3-1.

Now none of those figures means shit. Charles Woodson aint running out of the tunnel tommorow, neither is Desmond Howard, Elvis Grbac, or Tim Biakabatuka. The point of the excersise is to point out that the fact that UM hasn't won in South bend since before Monica Lewinsky was a household name, and that figure doesn't mean shit either. Nor does the glaring stat that UM hasn't won in six road openers. Michigan will win this game because what is expected in this series rarely happens. Whenever UM is supposed to destroy ND...they lose. When the experts fail to give UM their due...things tend to go their way. Defensive aggressiveness and speed will hold Quinn and the boys somewhat in check. A healthy Hart finally gets to get in a full game vs. the Irish. Henne gets redemption for probably the worst game of his career last year.

UM-27
ND-13

Hell yeah!!!

Update those digits fellas!!

Go Blue!