The Coming Market Crash

[KC Scott]

Just an FYI for those of you with $$$ in Stocks, your 401K or Mutual Funds -
This Market is getting ready for a severe correction.

I don't know what the "spark" will be that ignites the sell off
(A small terrorist attack, or maybe just a slew of bad earnings announcements
- possibly the Fed not talking about cutting interest rates next year)
- But whatever it will be it - will be sudden and it will be vicious.

Watch for the following; The Nasdaq will drop hard within the next 6 weeks.
First level of support, when it starts to go south, will be this summers lows around 2,012.

Once that gets taken out - it could fall all the way to 1750 - about 2 years worth of gains.
Of course, this will drag the S&P 500 and the Dow right down with it.

The bottom will finaly form when semi conductors (SOX) index advances from a sustained bottom.

Take this for what it's worth....

I'd rather play it safe and be in cash than go through the drop we had in 01-02.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

You forgot to paste the...

"Please forward this to as many people as possible"

[KC Scott]

Nope tard - No C & P here.

All me - But hey, since your a smart guy you should go buy some Internet stocks and semi conductors tomorrow

[KC Scott]

Didn't expect this Freindly little bit of advice to be warmly received -

Go buy some Oil stocks MVSCAL - They are on "sale" right this minute.

Matter O Fact, you can get a great deal on HAL if you act fast

[War Wagon]

<---------- Ready to furiously re-adjust the portfolio.

I tend to believe that Scott knows what he's talking about. Besides that, Stock Market crashes have historically happened in October. I'd rather be safe than sorry.

[Wolfman]

sell your stocks and send me the
cash--it will be safe with me !!

[Mikey]

If we go through a drop similar to the one in 01-02 the NAS won't bottom out until it hits about 1000, but then the tech stocks aren't nearly as overvalued as they were then.

[War Wagon]

<---------- Ready to furiously re-adjust the portfolio.

Bond Funds, folks.

Get IN now, or miss the boat.

[Cuda]

You dumped all your beanie babies to get into bond funds?

[War Wagon]

Yeah.

I also dumped all my Pokemon cards.

Hey! You do what you gotta' do.

[Cuda]

If I could find an antique Hamms Beer neon sign in good condition, I could sell it to Fester & retire early

[BSmack]

If I could find an antique Hamms Beer neon sign in good condition, I could sell it to Fester & still be unemployed

FTFY

[TenTallBen]

[War Wagon]

^^^Ok, that was funny.

[poptart]

I thought the market had it's correction a few months ago.

What factors lead you to your conclusion that a big drop is coming, Scott .... ?

[KC Scott]

Here's the deal - If the Nasdaq can't make it back above that top trend line, it will fall - and when it does it will be fast
It will fall a long way since there is not a lot of support below the 2030 line.

When it punctured the lower trend line in May, it broke a 2 year uptrend which also was a continuation of the bull market since the last bottom in August 2002.

There's a lot more to it than just this - the collapse of housing market, and now the drop in oil and commodities.
That's a lot of wealth disappearing everyday.
Add the rising interest rate, the declining economy and people are not going to continue to buy stocks at higher prices.

I agree with Mikey that Techs are not as overvalued as the 2000 bubble - but that's what makes this even worse.
When people and institutions sell in this drop, they won't move into any other sector.

Cash is king for now people.

[Ruff]

If the market in this first decade of the 21st century were to duplicate the worst ten-year performance since the end of the Second World War, the 1.24 average annual percent return between 1965 and 1974, it would have to produce annual returns of 8.2 percent during the rest of the decade.


If the market were to duplicate its worst performance since 1970, 5.86 percent between 1970 and 1979, it would have to rise at a 15 percent annual rate for the rest of the decade.


For the market in this decade to produce its average ten-year performance of the entire 76-year period, it would have to return 22.4 percent annually for the next seven-plus years.


For the index to duplicate the average ten-year return of the post World War II period, it would have to rise at a 25 percent annual rate for the rest of this decade.

So yeah, KCS, you could be right.

But I don't see it.

[War Wagon]

The housing market, which has kept the U.S. economy afloat for the past 10 years, hasn't exactly collapsed.

Sure, it's down compared to the past few years incredible numbers, but it's not out. It should rebound by Feb or Mar at the latest.

Folks will always need a roof over their head and a pot to piss in.

[KC Scott]

I thought the market had it's correction a few months ago.

What factors lead you to your conclusion that a big drop is coming, Scott .... ?

David what happened over the summer is called a reaction rally.
People bought on the "dip" in price.

Now look at that chart I just posted - look at the bottom which indicates Volume.
See how the volume was much higher when it sold off (Red Lines) - the subsequent rise had less buyers.
And in supply and demand if you have more sellers than buyers the price will fall.

When this market falls, there will be multiple reaction rallys -
the thing is, they will never get past the previous price points (the trend line).

This is all big picture trend - and just like a rising tide lifts all boats,
A drought will ground all of them except the ones on wheels ;)

[KC Scott]

So yeah, KCS, you could be right.

But I don't see it.

Do you see it yet?

Think of it this way.....

If you owned 1000 shares of QQQQ and sold in March of 2000,
and never put a dime back in the market,
Would you be ahead or behind today?

[Nishlord]

My Boyz Justin Hawk Bradshaw and the Monopoly Man told me I'll be able to retire next year on my horse bobbleheads.

Sincerely,
Zyclone

[Ruff]

I'm not about to sell, too much money to be made out there.

I don't know which way the next 500 pts on the DJIA will move.

But I do know which way the next 5000 pts will move.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

Looks like a stone cold, lead pipe lock to me.

Sin,

JON
JSC

[Mister Bushice]

All my money is in real estate. I've turned my initial investment of about 35K into 10 times that amount in just 7 years. Even if there is a dip over the next few months and slower growth after that, I'm good with it. There will be another boom, at which time I will cash out and retire.

I'm not gambling my money in the stock market. for one thing, I know too little about it. For another, to see real gains, you HAVE to gamble, and know when to get out, or to move.

[poptart]

I'm not gambling my money in the stock market. for one thing, I know too little about it. For another, to see real gains, you HAVE to gamble, and know when to get out, or to move.

No, all you have to do is watch the board and Scott will tell you when to buy and sell.

I also get 'private consultation' from him once a year for a $20 fee.


I'm good.

[Mister Bushice]

There's just too much to know. Selling short, margins, reading graphs and charts for "trends" Scott himself would tell you that it's a gamble, and if you play it too safe you won't see that much profit unless you are in it for the long haul.

No thanks. Real estate be treating me well. There's less risk in it, too.

[poptart]

Pussy.

[Mister Bushice]

yep. :)

[poptart]

Actually I'm disappointed in my service with Scott.
I pay $20 a year and don't get nearly the help I need.

I'm going Schwab next year.


Is Schwab a Jew .... ?

[jiminphilly]

The housing market, which has kept the U.S. economy afloat for the past 10 years, hasn't exactly collapsed.

Sure, it's down compared to the past few years incredible numbers, but it's not out. It should rebound by Feb or Mar at the latest.

Folks will always need a roof over their head and a pot to piss in.

Why would the housing market suddenly pick up in the dead of winter for most of the North Eastern part of the US? Housing market is dramtically slowing down. Look at the condo market to see how bad it really is. Commercial real estate is up which can be good unless your a design professional in which case you might want to watch out for who is hiring you to do design work. Chances are those contractors and devlopers are looking to make up for their lost profits from the residential market and what better way than to sue.

[Ruff]

All my money is in real estate. I've turned my initial investment of about 35K into 10 times that amount in just 7 years. Even if there is a dip over the next few months and slower growth after that, I'm good with it. There will be another boom, at which time I will cash out and retire.

I'm not gambling my money in the stock market. for one thing, I know too little about it. For another, to see real gains, you HAVE to gamble, and know when to get out, or to move.

People shouldn't gamble in the stock market. Gambling definitely involves a great deal of risk.

You should invest in the stock market. BIG difference.

Real estate is not inherently less risky than the market. If your real estate value takes a "dip", what do you do? Do you panic and sell? Most likely you hold on to it and let the price recover, just like you suggested. Why wouldn't you do the same with other investments?

Your thought process is in need of a good bit of education. I wouldn't suggest enrolling with KCScam.

[Uncle Fester]

I sold all my shares in kick boxing and invested heavily in grappling.

[Ruff]

See, Fester's got it.

This investing thing is not so difficult.

[Mister Bushice]

Real estate is not inherently less risky than the market. If your real estate value takes a "dip", what do you do? Do you panic and sell? Most likely you hold on to it and let the price recover, just like you suggested. Why wouldn't you do the same with other investments?

IN 2001, did the housing market crash because a couple of planes flew into buildings? No.

Would it crash if something like that happened again? NO. Would the stock market crash if something like that happened again? YES

The real estate market as a whole follows long term up and down cycles. The stock market is far more volatile. There are fewer factors to consider in real estate, and diversification on the same scale as the stock market is not necessary.

and I agree I'd need an education on investing in the stock market. I made that clear up above. Having the time it takes to learn, analyze and decide, and to be constantly alert for changes in trends is not something I'd want to invest in. I don't need another career.

[A.C. Crut]

If you're confident certain stocks or commodities will shrink in value, sell them short.

There's always a bull market somewhere.

[KC Scott]

and I agree I'd need an education on investing in the stock market. I made that clear up above. Having the time it takes to learn, analyze and decide, and to be constantly alert for changes in trends is not something I'd want to invest in. I don't need another career.

That's what brokers are for.

I hope your taking his advice then.

I'm sure he's earning his commissions.

What are your holdings?

[KC Scott]

In the Interest of Full Disclosure - Here's my positions on all indvidual stocks:

Short AMD @ 27.22
Short KLAC @ 45.86
Short ADI @ 31.69
Short QQQQ @ 40.88

Getting ready to Short ISIL

All Mutual Funds were sold and moved to Money Markets

[The Whistle Is Screaming]

and I agree I'd need an education on investing in the stock market. I made that clear up above. Having the time it takes to learn, analyze and decide, and to be constantly alert for changes in trends is not something I'd want to invest in. I don't need another career.

That's what brokers are for.

You see, it doesn't matter if our clients make money or lose money ... we get paid either way.

[KC Scott]

In the Interest of Full Disclosure - Here's my positions on all indvidual stocks:

Short AMD @ 27.22
Short KLAC @ 45.86
Short ADI @ 31.69
Short QQQQ @ 40.88

Getting ready to Short ISIL

All Mutual Funds were sold and moved to Money Markets

Good job shitting your bed. Enjoy the view on the way down. You are fucking up...badly.

Really?

Hmmm - I'm already up in 3 of those 4 positions


Of course it's Real easy to stand on the sideline and throw rocks - When you don't disclose.

Of course I wouldn't expect any more of you - Your typically a coward when it comes to putting it on the line

[ChargerMike]

...my kid bought a house in the San Fernando Valley in 2004. He paid $335,000.00 with no money down and $2,000. back in non recurring closing costs. It cost him (me) about $6,000. in closing costs. The current market value of the house is $550,000. (down from $575,000. in March of this year).

Current equity $215,000. minus $6,000. closing costs =$209,000. minus $20,000 in upgrades =net equity of $195,000.00

$6,000 initial cash investment after 2 years = $195,000.00...somebody help me with the math here. Total per cent return on $6,000. in 2 years...........? is it somewhere around 1600% per year??